1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development?
Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact @Ag4Impact
Agriculture for Impact
www.ag4impact.org
The Boss
Nature, 13 August 2009 (S.Torfinn/Panos)
Content
•The context: global challenges
•The role for agricultural development in food security
•Agriculture for Impact
The Perfect Storm?
John Beddington, Chief Scientist, Government Office for Science, speaking at DFID, 12th November 2009
Increased demand 50% by 2030 (IEA)
Energy
Water Increased demand 30% by 2030
(IFPRI)
FoodIncreased demand 50% by 2030
(FAO)
Climate Change
1. Increasing population
2. Increasing levels of urbanisation
3. The rightful goal to alleviate poverty
Gordon Conway’s English cottage loaf
Food price volatility
Food price volatility
A global food crisis
1.02 billion people are hungry
1 in 6 of the world’s population
(FAO, 2009)
Hunger is on the rise
Increased impact on developing countries
World Food Programme hunger map
Sub-Saharan Africa
Over 265 million people are undernourished (26% of global total)
Home to 15 of the 16 countries where the prevalence of hunger exceeds 35%
Why does it matter?
• Food security underpins global security• Economic time bomb• Humanitarian imperative
Food security underpins global security
The Guardian, 9 April 2008: Kena Betancur/EPA
Economic time bomb
Humanitarian imperative
Food Security
“Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”.
(World Food Summit, 1996)
Entitlements
Starvation is the characteristic of some people not having enough food to eat. It is not the of there being not enough food to eat
Amartya Sen,1982
Four dimensions of food security
GDP growth from agriculture benefits the income of the poor 2-4 times more than GDP growth from non-agriculture
Lack of investment in agriculture
1980s:
17% of ODA
30% of World Bank lending
Mid 2000s:
4% of ODA
7% of World Bank lending
EU overseas development assistance to agriculture
ODA from Europe (Thirtle, Piesse and Hearn, 2009 via OECD DAC data)
0
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1967
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Years
2007
$ U
S, m
illio
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DAC EU members to Africa DAC EU members to agriculture DAC EU to SSA agriculture
African agriculture
• 80% (33 million farms) less than 2 hectares (smallholders)• 50% of the agricultural labour force is female• Cereal yields, around one ton per hectare, ¼ of those in East
Asia.• Fertilisers are applied at average rates of about 11kg/ ha of
arable land (compared to 112kg/ha in Latin American and the Caribbean)
• Only 4% of cultivated land is irrigated, of which 70% is Madagascar, Nigeria and Sudan. The potential exists to bring 20 million hectares of land under irrigation.
• Many pests, diseases and weeds such as Striga, Black Sigatoka, Banana wilt, Cassava mosaic virus, Maize leaf streak and Maruca beetles can destroy crops.
.
A continent of many different stories
‘Africa is not in crisis but some African countries are’ (Wiggins, 2011)
Delivering change
Looking for win-wins:• Increasing yields sustainably• Enabling access to markets• Political leadership
Sustainable intensification
Quality as well as quantity
Access to markets
Political leadership
Agriculture for Impact
The gap
Grassroots activity
High level rhetoric
Gap?
Opportunities to influence
•CAADP•G8 : UK Presidency in 2013•G20 •EU 2014-2020•GROW Africa / WEF initiative
Our focus
Our activities
How can we feed the world?
•Highly productive•Stable•Resilient•Equitable•Sustainable
What is ‘successful’ scaling up?
Link to private sector?
www.weforum.org
Beyond islands of happiness?
What is scaling up?
Becoming large?
What is scaling up?
Expanding impact?
The Boss
Nature, 13 August 2009 (S.Torfinn/Panos)