1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? liz wilson, agriculture for...

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1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact @Ag4Impact

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Page 1: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development?

Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact @Ag4Impact

Page 2: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

Agriculture for Impact

www.ag4impact.org

Page 3: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

The Boss

Nature, 13 August 2009 (S.Torfinn/Panos)

Page 4: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

Content

•The context: global challenges

•The role for agricultural development in food security

•Agriculture for Impact

Page 5: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

The Perfect Storm?

John Beddington, Chief Scientist, Government Office for Science, speaking at DFID, 12th November 2009

Increased demand 50% by 2030 (IEA)

Energy

Water Increased demand 30% by 2030

(IFPRI)

FoodIncreased demand 50% by 2030

(FAO)

Climate Change

1. Increasing population

2. Increasing levels of urbanisation

3. The rightful goal to alleviate poverty

Page 6: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

Gordon Conway’s English cottage loaf

Page 7: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

Food price volatility

Page 8: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

Food price volatility

Page 9: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

A global food crisis

1.02 billion people are hungry

1 in 6 of the world’s population

(FAO, 2009)

Page 10: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

Hunger is on the rise

Page 11: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

Increased impact on developing countries

Page 12: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

World Food Programme hunger map

Page 13: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

Sub-Saharan Africa

Over 265 million people are undernourished (26% of global total)

Home to 15 of the 16 countries where the prevalence of hunger exceeds 35%

Page 14: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

Why does it matter?

• Food security underpins global security• Economic time bomb• Humanitarian imperative

Page 15: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

Food security underpins global security

The Guardian, 9 April 2008: Kena Betancur/EPA

Page 16: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

Economic time bomb

Page 17: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

Humanitarian imperative

Page 18: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

Food Security

“Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”.

(World Food Summit, 1996)

Page 19: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

Entitlements

Starvation is the characteristic of some people not having enough food to eat. It is not the of there being not enough food to eat

Amartya Sen,1982

Page 20: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

Four dimensions of food security

Page 21: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

GDP growth from agriculture benefits the income of the poor 2-4 times more than GDP growth from non-agriculture

Page 22: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

Lack of investment in agriculture

1980s:

17% of ODA

30% of World Bank lending

Mid 2000s:

4% of ODA

7% of World Bank lending

Page 23: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

EU overseas development assistance to agriculture

ODA from Europe (Thirtle, Piesse and Hearn, 2009 via OECD DAC data)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

Years

2007

$ U

S, m

illio

ns

DAC EU members to Africa DAC EU members to agriculture DAC EU to SSA agriculture

Page 24: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

African agriculture

• 80% (33 million farms) less than 2 hectares (smallholders)• 50% of the agricultural labour force is female• Cereal yields, around one ton per hectare, ¼ of those in East

Asia.• Fertilisers are applied at average rates of about 11kg/ ha of

arable land (compared to 112kg/ha in Latin American and the Caribbean)

• Only 4% of cultivated land is irrigated, of which 70% is Madagascar, Nigeria and Sudan. The potential exists to bring 20 million hectares of land under irrigation.

• Many pests, diseases and weeds such as Striga, Black Sigatoka, Banana wilt, Cassava mosaic virus, Maize leaf streak and Maruca beetles can destroy crops.

.

Page 25: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

A continent of many different stories

‘Africa is not in crisis but some African countries are’ (Wiggins, 2011)

Page 26: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

Delivering change

Looking for win-wins:• Increasing yields sustainably• Enabling access to markets• Political leadership

Page 27: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

Sustainable intensification

Page 28: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

Quality as well as quantity

Page 29: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

Access to markets

Page 30: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

Political leadership

Page 31: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

Agriculture for Impact

Page 32: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

The gap

Grassroots activity

High level rhetoric

Gap?

Page 33: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

Opportunities to influence

•CAADP•G8 : UK Presidency in 2013•G20 •EU 2014-2020•GROW Africa / WEF initiative

Page 34: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

Our focus

Page 35: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

Our activities

Page 36: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

How can we feed the world?

•Highly productive•Stable•Resilient•Equitable•Sustainable

Page 37: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

What is ‘successful’ scaling up?

Link to private sector?

www.weforum.org

Page 38: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

Beyond islands of happiness?

Page 39: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

What is scaling up?

Becoming large?

Page 40: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

What is scaling up?

Expanding impact?

Page 41: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

The Boss

Nature, 13 August 2009 (S.Torfinn/Panos)

Page 42: 1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact@Ag4Impact

www.ag4impact.org

@Ag4Impact

[email protected]

Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact

11th January 2012