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The Last Lecture
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Final Exam December 12 – 3:30-5:30 2 hour exam All material from policy
agenda+ formulation forward
Responsible for themes for whole course
Responsible for specifics of readings and lectures only from agenda and formulation forward except section of Chap 1 ISOS on policy cycle
2
Review session: Tu Dec 10 (Room TBA) 11-12 (whole class) 12-1 (students from whom
English in not first language
Office Hours George Monday Dec 9, 1-4 Wednesday Dec 11, 10-12 and
2-4 By appointment
Office Hours Gabrielle Friday Dec 6th, 1-4pm Monday Dec 9th, 9-11 am Tuesday Dec 10th, 10am-12pm
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outline
Feedback on course Forest policy futures
Short term▪ BC Liberal Future▪ What if the NDP had won?
Longer Term Barriers to more sustainable policy Final words
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Merits of redesign?
Themes Policy Content
Objective: Draw out broader themes while reducing complexity
Concern: Still too complex?
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Key elements
Forces at work framework
How government works
Interest Groups First Nations International Context US Influence Policy Cycle
Policy Formulation Decision-making and
Policy Design Implementation
New Values: Carbon and Bio-energy
Comparisons
Cases Great Bear Rainforest Mountain Pine Beetle
5
Policy Categories1. tenure 2. Stumpage3. Rate of harvest4. Land Use zoning5. Regulation of Forest
Practices6. Emergent areas – carbon,
energy
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Course design issues
Should there be tutorials How would you create space for
them?
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Course design issues
Website Facebook page Twitter feed
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Future Directions
Short term BC Liberal Future What if the NDP had won?
Longer term
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Christy Clark Forest Policy
Mandate letter for appointment of Minister Steve Thomson
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MFLNRO mandate letter (1)
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MFLNRO mandate letter (2)
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Christy Clark Forest Policy Major Campbell initiatives that seem to
be continued Greenhouse gas reductions?
▪ Pacific Carbon Trust eliminated, function retained▪ Pressure on forests will increase to offset LNG
emissions Aboriginal reconciliation – signs of move away
from treaty focus but that was underway Reorganization – process seems incomplete
▪ But bigger steps impolitic▪ Name change?
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Let’s suggest a new name!
Current: Ministry of Forests, Lands, and Natural Resource Operations
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An almost NDP Future
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NDP Platform
New funds Expanded
reforestation Updated inventory,
more R&D on adaptation
Restriction on log exports
Reduce wood waste, create bio-energy opportunities
http://www.bcndp.ca/files/BCNDP-Platform-2013-Web.pdf
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Longer Term?
What values will we be managing for?
Resurgent commodities
Carbon Bioenergy Biodiversity Recreation Aesthetics
Governance Corporatization Privatization Decentralization(Haley and Nelson’s 3
alternatives)
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BC Tenure apportioned by AAC
37
2019
16
1.36.7
% AAC
Forest Licence Replaceable
Forest Licence Non-Replace-able
BC Timber Sale Licence
Tree Farm Licence
Community Forests + WL
Other
Great sources for BC tenure data http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hth/timber-tenures/apportionment/index.htm
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Policies for SFM (Luckert et al)
SFM: optimizing 3 dimensions – now and in the future Economic Environmental Social
Diagnosis: failure (too strong?)
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Policy obstacles (Luckert et al)
Undue focus on sustained yield of timber
Insufficiently comprehensive rights Growing trees Multiple timber species Energy Non-market
Forced vertical integration (abandoned in BC)
Inefficient land use zoning Overly stringent regulation
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Principles for Change
Integrative management of jointly produced resources
Flexibility Innovation Clarity
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Barriers: Why aren’t we doing better?
Intellectual Value differences Uncertainties
Political opposition from those benefitting from the status quo
Decision rule that advantage opponents to change
Institutional mismatch Path dependence
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Path dependence
“once a policy or institutional path is established, entrenched mindsets, interests, and institutions make departures from the status quo difficult to envision” (Luckert et al)
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Final theme
Potential beneficial policy changes are frequently thwarted by intellectual, political, and/or institutional obstacles. Path dependence increases the costs of change.
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Closing thoughts
The meaning is in the detail
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Last word: Critical Thinking Complexity Facts and values Steps:
Identify argument Values underlying Facts
Be respective of value differences Be conscious of “motivated
reasoning” Mobilize evidence Persuasion requires
appealing to their values
Steps in Policy Analysis
Define problem Criteria for evaluation Identify multiple
alternatives Outcomes/
consequences of alternatives
Compare/tradeoff Recommended decision
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