The Last Lecture

Final Exam December 12 – 3:30-5:30 2 hour exam All material from policy

agenda+ formulation forward

Responsible for themes for whole course

Responsible for specifics of readings and lectures only from agenda and formulation forward except section of Chap 1 ISOS on policy cycle

2

Review session: Tu Dec 10 (Room TBA) 11-12 (whole class) 12-1 (students from whom

English in not first language

Office Hours George Monday Dec 9, 1-4 Wednesday Dec 11, 10-12 and

2-4 By appointment

Office Hours Gabrielle Friday Dec 6th, 1-4pm Monday Dec 9th, 9-11 am Tuesday Dec 10th, 10am-12pm

outline

Feedback on course Forest policy futures

Short term▪ BC Liberal Future▪ What if the NDP had won?

Longer Term Barriers to more sustainable policy Final words

Merits of redesign?

Themes Policy Content

Objective: Draw out broader themes while reducing complexity

Concern: Still too complex?

Key elements

Forces at work framework

How government works

Interest Groups First Nations International Context US Influence Policy Cycle

Policy Formulation Decision-making and

Policy Design Implementation

New Values: Carbon and Bio-energy

Comparisons

Cases Great Bear Rainforest Mountain Pine Beetle

5

Policy Categories1. tenure 2. Stumpage3. Rate of harvest4. Land Use zoning5. Regulation of Forest

Practices6. Emergent areas – carbon,

energy

Course design issues

Should there be tutorials How would you create space for

them?

Course design issues

Website Facebook page Twitter feed

Future Directions

Short term BC Liberal Future What if the NDP had won?

Longer term

Christy Clark Forest Policy

Mandate letter for appointment of Minister Steve Thomson

MFLNRO mandate letter (1)

MFLNRO mandate letter (2)

Christy Clark Forest Policy Major Campbell initiatives that seem to

be continued Greenhouse gas reductions?

▪ Pacific Carbon Trust eliminated, function retained▪ Pressure on forests will increase to offset LNG

emissions Aboriginal reconciliation – signs of move away

from treaty focus but that was underway Reorganization – process seems incomplete

▪ But bigger steps impolitic▪ Name change?

Let’s suggest a new name!

Current: Ministry of Forests, Lands, and Natural Resource Operations

An almost NDP Future

NDP Platform

New funds Expanded

reforestation Updated inventory,

more R&D on adaptation

Restriction on log exports

Reduce wood waste, create bio-energy opportunities

http://www.bcndp.ca/files/BCNDP-Platform-2013-Web.pdf

Longer Term?

What values will we be managing for?

Resurgent commodities

Carbon Bioenergy Biodiversity Recreation Aesthetics

Governance Corporatization Privatization Decentralization(Haley and Nelson’s 3

alternatives)

BC Tenure apportioned by AAC

37

2019

16

1.36.7

% AAC

Forest Licence Replaceable

Forest Licence Non-Replace-able

BC Timber Sale Licence

Tree Farm Licence

Community Forests + WL

Other

Great sources for BC tenure data http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hth/timber-tenures/apportionment/index.htm

Policies for SFM (Luckert et al)

SFM: optimizing 3 dimensions – now and in the future Economic Environmental Social

Diagnosis: failure (too strong?)

Policy obstacles (Luckert et al)

Undue focus on sustained yield of timber

Insufficiently comprehensive rights Growing trees Multiple timber species Energy Non-market

Forced vertical integration (abandoned in BC)

Inefficient land use zoning Overly stringent regulation

Principles for Change

Integrative management of jointly produced resources

Flexibility Innovation Clarity

Barriers: Why aren’t we doing better?

Intellectual Value differences Uncertainties

Political opposition from those benefitting from the status quo

Decision rule that advantage opponents to change

Institutional mismatch Path dependence

Path dependence

“once a policy or institutional path is established, entrenched mindsets, interests, and institutions make departures from the status quo difficult to envision” (Luckert et al)

Final theme

Potential beneficial policy changes are frequently thwarted by intellectual, political, and/or institutional obstacles. Path dependence increases the costs of change.

Closing thoughts

The meaning is in the detail

Last word: Critical Thinking Complexity Facts and values Steps:

Identify argument Values underlying Facts

Be respective of value differences Be conscious of “motivated

reasoning” Mobilize evidence Persuasion requires

appealing to their values

Steps in Policy Analysis

Define problem Criteria for evaluation Identify multiple

alternatives Outcomes/

consequences of alternatives

Compare/tradeoff Recommended decision