doing nothing is not an option
TRANSCRIPT
Doing nothing is not an option
Zoltan MaklaryNovember 2016
Changes in the way we view, adopt and use mobility are an opportunity to improve our cities, their liveability and our economy; it will help us to meet the challenges of population
growth, urbanisation and sustainability
The past and present
Historically speaking…
Cars that provide point-to-point travel at an individual level.
Rail that provides mass transit between key destinations.
Light rail and buses that service the journeys in between.
When we think of transport challenges, we generally think in terms of modes instead of journeys (e.g. very fast rail, light rail, bus rapid transit etc.)
Modes in the traditional transport hierarchy
With regard to our expenditure and planning, we tend to focus more on the physical asset (e.g. roads, rail, terminals) and adding more capacity to these.
This is unsustainable.We need to start
thinking differently…
We need to move from thinking about vehicles and modes to end-to-
end journeys for people
and business.
This need is being driven by population growth, urbanisation, and shifts in people’s expectations.
But our legislation and regulations are based on the past, and changes can take years to implement.
The Uber response was reactive,
disaggregated and slow despite Australia being a late adopter.
Funding for public infrastructure is stretched and at breaking point, with no easy and obvious alternatives.
How do we fund our transport infrastructure?
How do we manage congestion?
And so, we have 2 burning questions…
12
The future of mobility
Ridesharing Autonomous vehiclesMobility as a service
…are just the beginning
Advisian / 15
Transportation will no longer be about modes and car ownership – point-to-point,
seamless mobility that can be changed to suit people’s
needs will become the future.
The Internet of Things will connect in real time:• Devices • Infrastructure • People• Government• Business
Connectivity will increase
Internet of Things
Autonomous vehicles will…represent a further step-change in reduced car ownership, while preserving independence and relieving the load on fixed public transport.
Advisian / 18
But to capture the benefits of AVs our
infrastructure must evolve…
Line markingsLane size/structureBridgesTunnelsIntersection designLane mergingLightingSignage
Our traditional transport infrastructure includes:
Advisian / 20
Future transport infrastructure will need to be Smart
2017Vehicle to
Vehicle
2018Vehicle to
Device
2018Vehicle to Pedestrian
2018Vehicle to
Home
2018Vehicle to
Grid
2018Vehicle to
Infrastructure
To be truly effective and capture the benefits autonomous vehicles – connectivity is essential. This requires an on going investment into upgrading and adding new infrastructure, introducing more complexity.Evolution of technology from vehicle to ‘anything’
The driverless car – complexity?The eco system of the driverless car is full of considerations, but equally rich with opportunity
- Cost- Network effects and after-market- Driver education- Technology- Consumer pull
Network density and after-market - Legislation -
Infrastructure investment - Consumer acceptance -
Geopolitical factors -
Self-driving operation considerations
Autonomous evolution or revolution
What else will go autonomous?Taxis Shuttles Trains Trucks Ships Planes
We are moving from a past where ‘autonomous’ meant tightly controlled, highly regulated and high-cost infrastructure, to one that is unconstrained, ever changing, open, and driven by the community and industry.
What and when they will come online – no one really knows
The PastDriver Only1
TodayAssisted
2020-2025Highly automated
2017-2020Partially Automated
2026-2030Fully automated
2
3
4
5
From now till 2040+ we are in transition - arguably a mixed fleet will exist for decades
Why do we need to change?
Advisian / 26
Population growth and urbanisation
Advisian / 27
Safety (remove the human)
Advisian / 28
Economics – productivity benefits from automation
Accessibility and rapid development of technology
Shrinking sources of government revenue from fuel excise, etc.
Advisian / 31
Sustainability
How do we change?
React Provide guidance
Lead the transition
To date most governments - if not all - have followed option 1, some option 2, and very few option 3
Driving the change
Education InfrastructureLegislation and
Regulationfuturenow
Inform the publicGet them comfortable Sell the benefitsIdentify the risks and how they will be eliminated
Education
Key areas to address:• Roads rules governing
vehicle control• Trials• Vehicle safety and
standards• Data and cybersecurity• Market driven technology
and innovation• Harmonisation across States
Legislation and Regulation
A planned proactive and communicated strategy is needed
Industry self regulation Codes of practice National
guidelinesLegislative
solution
Governments oversee
deployment and safety assurance
Increasing level of government control
Differing levels of government control in autonomous vehicle deployment (source: NTC)
How will governments maintain and improve transportation? Is the option of adopting road user charging for AVs the step-change opportunity? AVs will impact both existing and new infrastructure
Infrastructure
And now?
We need to get involved and lead the transition!
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