DME 89573

Local Government and Climate Change Adaptation

Infrastructure impacts and coastal planning

Adam GrayDirector - Environment

August 2012

• Climate change – what are we talking about ?

• Where are we headed – what are the climate trends for SA?

• What does this mean for LG and how should/do we respond?– National projects / tools

Climate Change in a nutshell…

• The earth's "greenhouse effect" is what makes this planet suitable for life as we know it.

The Goldilocks Principle "Venus is too hot, Mars is too cold, and Earth is just right."

• Greenhouses are structures designed to retain heat.

• The heat-trapping ability of our atmosphere is influenced by a number of factors eg. Quantum and mix of gases

• 1960 to 2009 we released 273 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide

• In 2008, global emissions were nearly 40% higher than those in 1990

• The level of CO2 in the atmosphere by the end of 2010 was the highest in over 800,000 years

REALLY…..

can we humans

influence the

global climate???

Today…..

• Global Population is approximately 7 billion• The UN medium estimate projects global population will peak at approx 9.2 billion by 2070• UN high estimates predict growth at the current rate will see our global population reach 14 billion

by 2100

All these people combined with our CURRENT reliance on fossil fuels =

• World COAL consumption is about 18,476,126 short tons EVERY day (2006 data)

• This is expected to increase by 48% to 9.98 billion short tons by 2030• World PETROLEUM consumption in 2008 was 85.75 million barrels per day

EVERY year (and increasing) human activity puts an

ADDITIONAL 30 billion tonnes of CO2

into our thin atmosphere

Tomorrow?

So what does all this mean for our SA climate?

Temperature trends….An increase in average annual temperature of between 0.6oC and 2.0oC by 2030 and 1.0oC and 5oC by 2070 is predicted for South Australia.

Rainfall trends….CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology model projections show with a veryhigh level of confidence (up to 90%) that there will be a drop in winter rainfall across Victoria and southern South Australia (Steffen 2009).

Sea level rise…..Even moderate increases in sea level rise can result in extreme sea level events associated with high tides and storm surges to occur hundreds of times more frequently than they currently do.

As an example, an event that now occurs once every 100 years could beexpected to occur two or three times every year by the end of the century (Steffen 2009).

In Australia more than 85% of the population lives in coastal regions and so the impacts of sealevel rise may be significant (Garnaut 2011).

Research since AR4suggests that there is now a….

“considerable body of evidence now that points toward a sea levelrise of 0.5 – 1.0 m by 2100” and that “sea level rise… towards 1.5 m cannot be ruled out”

Extreme events…

BUSHFIRE WEATHER……

HOT DAYS / HEATWAVES….

STORMWATER……

SEA LEVEL RISE….

How will your Council and your Community prepare and respond?

The three Amigos!1. Mitigate – reduce your Carbon

footprint

2. Adapt – prepare for the likely impacts of climate change to build resilience

3. Lead – show the way

Adapt…• LGA Mutual Liability

Scheme Climate

Adaptation Program (CAP)

– know your exposure

– Development Planning

– Asset and Infrastructure Management

– Emergency Management

– Community Services and Recreation facilities

– Health and well being

– Council Prosperity

Development Planning…• Building in the coastal zone• Building in bushfire prone areas

Asset & Infrastructure management• Asset life changes• WSUD• Tree management• Actions of the sea• Storm water management• Sea walls and levees – adequacy• Wastewater management

Emergency Management• Bushfire hazard• Response and recovery planning for bushfire and coastal flooding• Integrating bushfire policy into Local Government systems

Sustainability and Environmental management• Biodiversity management• Water quality

Community services & recreation facilities• Safer places and heat refuges• Playground design for extreme heat• Community land management

Health and Wellbeing• Health inspection and disease management• Home and community care• Employees, volunteers safety and welfare

Council Prosperity• Council viability• Financial sustainability

Adaptation…LGA MLS CAP and beyond

• State Adaptation Framework

• Integrated Vulnerability Assessments– Regional and Sectoral Adaptation

Planning

• Tools and resources to help Councils apply principles of climate change in planning/policy

LGA NCCARF projectThe key aim of the project is to:

Aim - Develop tools that allow Councils to translate climate change impacts on assets into strategic and operational financial and asset management plans.

Outputs will include:• Process for identifying climate change risk on assets.• Financial model to quantitatively measure the cost of road asset repair and

maintenance with climate change.• Modification to the existing IPWEA NAMS.PLUS asset and financial

management tool to include the new model.• Product support and training tools.• Journal and conference papers.

NCCARF Collaborating councils

• SA –

– Port Adelaide Enfield,

– Campbelltown,

– Wattle Range,

– Barossa, Tumby Bay.

• VIC –

– Hume City,

– Bass Coast.

• WA –

– Esperance.

• TAS –

– Brighton.

NCCARF Key findings

• Concrete– Carbon, temperature and humidity will have an impact. LGA report

summarises construction and maintenance options

• Steel and Galvanised coating degradation– Australian standards guarantees the serviceability of an asset by ensuring

they are durable to environmental influence and resilient to (un)expected extreme events.

– Where climate change alters the environment significantly then changes to management will be required.

NCCARF Key findings (cont’d)

• Sealed roads– Climate change affects the integrity of the surface pavement and the sub-

base below– Damage includes cracking, rutting, patching and potholes

• Unsealed roads– Climate change affects the integrity of the surface pavement and the sub-

base below– Damage includes erosion, gravel loss, corrugations and potholes

5.0% 90.0% 5.0%

-4.049% -2.846%

-6.0

%-5

.5%

-5.0

%-4

.5%

-4.0

%-3

.5%

-3.0

%-2

.5%

-2.0

%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

% / : CC impact in Costs Bass Coast

CC impact in % / Costs

Minimum -5.51%Maximum -2.35%Mean -3.38%Std Dev 0.376%Values 5000

5.0% 90.0% 5.0%

6.62% 11.30%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

% / - : CC impact in UL RH Bass Coast

CC impact in % / UL -RH

Minimum 4.98%Maximum 17.0%Mean 8.72%Std Dev 1.45%Values 5000

LGA CADP project

• DCCEE CADP project $4.2 m available Nationally – 15 projects

• SA Project involves 2 SA pilot Councils

• Aim is to deliver a decision pathway and financial analysis….

LGA National Asset projects

• Analyse the climate impact• Analyse existing protection structures and strategies• Establish the profile of the assets at risk• Determine Council liability• Determine monetary value of assets at risk• Analyse actions

– Retreat– Accommodate– Defend– Defer– Do Nothing!

For more information contact;

Adam Gray

Director - Environment

8224 2055

adam.gray@lga.sa.gov.au

Or refer to the LGA website at…

www.lga.sa.gov.au/goto/climatechange

LGA programs/policies & resources…..