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    20 th September 2007 ATLASCOPE sarl . Paris, France Slide No 1

    Disaster Risk Management inDisaster Risk Management in

    SouthSouth --East AsiaEast AsiaCould a BhopalCould a Bhopal --like accident happen again ?like accident happen again ?Alex Dali

    Managing PartnerRisk Management division

    ATLASCOPE SARL Paris, France

    [email protected]

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    20 th September 2007 ATLASCOPE sarl . Paris, France Slide No 3

    Natural disasters

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    20 th September 2007 ATLASCOPE sarl . Paris, France Slide No 4

    Man-made

    disasters

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    20 th September 2007 ATLASCOPE sarl . Paris, France Slide No 6

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    20 th September 2007 ATLASCOPE sarl . Paris, France Slide No 7

    Source : CRED database, Munich Re R&D/Geo

    Number of people killed or injured after a natural disaster

    1,4763,04234,301

    332,663

    0

    50,000

    100,000

    150,000

    200,000

    250,000

    300,000

    350,000

    European Union South-east Asia

    KilledInjured

    2,000

    300,000

    0

    50,000

    100,000

    150,000

    200,000

    250,000

    300,000

    Katrina -USA-August2005

    Tsunami Asia-December2004

    Source : ReliefWeb

    Between 1990 and 2000

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    20 th September 2007 ATLASCOPE sarl . Paris, France Slide No 8

    Cost of damage by natural disasters

    53.8 billions

    27.8 billions

    0.0

    10.0

    20.0

    30.0

    40.0

    50.0

    60.025-35%insured

    1-2%insured

    billions

    115 b

    35 b

    146 b

    4 b

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    Katrina -USA-August2005

    Tsunami Asia-December2004

    Insured

    Non-insured

    Source : CRED database, Munich Re R&D/Geo Source : ReliefWeb

    Between 1990 and 2000

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    20 th September 2007 ATLASCOPE sarl . Paris, France Slide No 9

    Number of industrial accidents around the

    world between 1990-2005

    N or t hE a s t

    We s t

    C e nt r a lSouth

    N o r t h

    C e n t r a l

    South

    Car ibbeanE a s t

    S o u t h - e a s t

    South

    West

    We s

    E U

    N o n - E U

    R u s s i a n Fe d .

    O c e a n i a0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    Africa America As ia Euro p e Oceania

    2-Singapore3%

    20-Philippines29%

    5-Malaysia7%

    20-Indonesia29%

    22-Thailand32%

    EU-89 accidents SEA- 69 accidents

    17-Others19%

    6-Belgium7%

    20-France23%

    12-Germany12%

    7-Italy8%

    8-NL9%

    11-Spain12%

    9-UK10%

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    20 th September 2007 ATLASCOPE sarl . Paris, France Slide No 10

    Hazardous substances Deaths Injuries Place and date

    Methyl isocyanateGunpowder

    LPG explosionFireworksAmmoniaFlammable chemicalsGunpowderChemical reactionEthylene

    Potassium chloratePetrolCarbonyl chlorideGas explosion

    >25009

    3540

    75

    6315

    9

    35714

    >200 00059

    156030

    >2005225

    6

    10412

    101>1 ?

    India, 1984Korea, 1987

    India, 1990Malaysia, 1991Bangladesh, 1991Thailand, 1991China, 1993China, 1993China, 1997

    Thailand, 1999Thailand, 1999Thailand, 2000Malaysia 2002

    Major industrial accidents in Asia

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    20 th September 2007 ATLASCOPE sarl . Paris, France Slide No 12

    APELLPROCESS

    APELLAPELLPROCESSPROCESS

    INTEGRATEDINTEGRATED

    COMMUNITYCOMMUNITYEMERGENCYEMERGENCYRESPONSERESPONSE

    PLANPLAN

    Local Government

    Industry

    Community

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    20 th September 2007 ATLASCOPE sarl . Paris, France Slide No 13

    Officials

    64

    6

    39

    6

    47

    13 91

    26

    111

    28

    120

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Others

    No response Respondants

    IndustryInstitutes

    Methodology and responses

    99 211

    133

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    20 th September 2007 ATLASCOPE sarl . Paris, France Slide No 14

    Ammonia Principal use : Agriculture (80%)

    FertilizerProduction of ureaAnti-fungal agent

    Commercial use :

    NOx reduction and SOx neutralization

    Production of explosivesRefrigerantSewage treatment plants

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    20 th September 2007 ATLASCOPE sarl . Paris, France Slide No 15

    Chlorine ( Applications in SE Asia )

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    V C M P u l

    p & P a p e

    r T D

    I

    P o l y c a

    r b o n a t e

    S y n t h e s

    i s H C l

    O t h e r s

    H y p o c h l o r i t

    e

    W a t e r

    t r e a t m e n t

    T i t a n i u m

    d i o x i d e

    A l l y l d i o x i d

    e

    ThailandSingapore

    Philippines

    Malaysia

    Indonesia

    VCM for PVCproduction

    Bleaching inpulp & paper,mainlyIndonesia

    Total dailyintake -

    Polycarbonate forresins

    HCL synthesismainly in Thailand Water

    treatment,mainly inThailand

    Source : TECHNON

    In 1,000 metric tons year 2000

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    20 th September 2007 ATLASCOPE sarl . Paris, France Slide No 16

    240

    60

    27

    27

    22121110

    117

    258

    1514

    4186

    6

    265

    20

    94

    229

    30

    18

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    450

    500

    Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand

    Allyl dioxide

    Tita nium dioxide

    Wat er t reat ment

    Hypochlorite

    Others

    Synt hesis HCl

    Polycarbonate

    TDI

    Pulp & Pa per

    VCM

    Chlorine ( countries in SE Asia )

    Source : TECHNON

    In 1,000 metric tons year 2000

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    20 th September 2007 ATLASCOPE sarl . Paris, France Slide No 17

    West European chlorine production in 2001totalled 9.26 million tonnes in 84 plants

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    20 th September 2007 ATLASCOPE sarl . Paris, France Slide No 18

    Key indicators in the oil industry

    1445

    930

    612

    374

    25

    389

    0 125 136

    713

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1000

    1200

    1400

    1600

    Mb/d

    Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand

    Oil production Refining capacity

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    20 th September 2007 ATLASCOPE sarl . Paris, France Slide No 19

    Estimation of the level of riskAmmonia

    1 tonne released up to 4000 metres in 90 seconds

    LPG

    100 tonnes created a BLEVE at 680 metres

    600 tonnes created a BLEVE at 1200 metres

    Chlorine

    1 tonne released up to 5800 metres in 90 seconds

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    20 th September 2007 ATLASCOPE sarl . Paris, France Slide No 20

    R e l e a s e S c e n a r i o s f o r Am m o n

    i a

    R e f r i g e r a t i o n S y s t e m s

    Leaking valve packing/flange/seal Vessel overfill/relief due to solenoid failure Catastrophic vessel failure Outdoor/rooftop equipment corrosion/failure Level bridle/sight glass failure Relief valve failure Improper isolation of liquid full piping/equipment

    Condenser tube corrosion/failure Forklift accident- indoor or outdoor Oil draining error

    Fitting/piping failure due to liquid-hammer Cleaning cycle error-overpressure Transfer hose failure during unloading

    Improper hose connection during unloading

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    20 th September 2007 ATLASCOPE sarl . Paris, France Slide No 21

    PVC production and its risks

    Salt1050 Kg

    H2190 m3

    Caustic680 kg

    Ethylene250 kg

    Ethylene230 kg

    Chlorine620 kg EDC

    860 kgVCM

    1000 kg

    PVC1000 kg

    Chlorine unit EDC unit VCM unit PVC unit

    => Organochlorine=> HCl, phosgene => Organochlorine

    Electricity1920 KWh

    ExplosionFireToxic gases

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    20 th September 2007 ATLASCOPE sarl . Paris, France Slide No 22

    Oil & Gas

    Boiling-Liquid-Expanding-VaporExplosion (BLEVE)

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    20 th September 2007 ATLASCOPE sarl . Paris, France Slide No 23

    Indonesia Locations O&G and Chlorine

    Gas processing plant

    Refining center

    Petrochemical center

    Chlorine producers

    Bojonegara- Anyer

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    20 th September 2007 ATLASCOPE sarl . Paris, France Slide No 24

    Bangkok

    Chiang Mai

    Rayong

    ThailandLocations at risk

    Nakhon Pathon

    Samut Sakhon

    Samut PrakarnChonburi

    Cha-choengsoaPathumthani

    Nonthaburi

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    20 th September 2007 ATLASCOPE sarl . Paris, France Slide No 25

    Chlorine products in the Philippines

    LBataan.complex

    Philippines Resins

    MBatangas(100.000 p.)

    MVCDepot-Hypo

    HBislig150.000 p.

    PICPpaper

    MDavao city(1,5 million p)

    MVCDepot-Cl2

    HPasig cityManila

    Ajinimoto (MSG)

    MBulacan(60.000 p.)

    InchemHypochlorite

    HNorth harbor -Manila

    MVCstock-Cl2

    MLagunaTechno park

    MVCHypochlorite

    LBataan.complex

    BataanPP

    HLlegan city,(330.000 p.)

    MVCChlorine

    Levelof risk

    LocationConsumers

    Levelof risk

    LocationProducers

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    20 th September 2007 ATLASCOPE sarl . Paris, France Slide No 26

    Land-use planning in the Philippines

    Batangas

    Limay

    LagunaTechno

    park

    ChlorineInchemfactory

    SHELL, CALTEX

    Petrochemical storage -

    Pandacan

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    20 th September 2007 ATLASCOPE sarl . Paris, France Slide No 27

    The case of Singapore

    O&G : JurongIsland and Tuas

    Chlorine : Yes !

    Ammonia : No ?

    PVC

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    20 th September 2007 ATLASCOPE sarl . Paris, France Slide No 28

    MLHLLInformationdisclosure

    HLHLMPublic awareness

    MLMLLPublic participation

    MMHLMAccessibility to

    information

    Thailand

    Singapore

    Philippines

    Malaysia

    Indonesia

    Openness towards information

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    20 th September 2007 ATLASCOPE sarl . Paris, France Slide No 29

    Explosionleaves three

    dead

    Factoryworkersstruck bytoxic gas

    leak 55 needtreatmentafter inhalingfumes

    Toxicgasfactoryorderedto closeChemical

    drums foundnear school

    B50 billion needed to manage hazardous waste

    CHEMICAL EXPLOSION

    Villagers demand justice

    EXPLOSION

    Formalde

    hydesmelllingersoverestate

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    20 th September 2007 ATLASCOPE sarl . Paris, France Slide No 30L-MHLMLOHS standard

    L-MHLMLand use planning

    LM-HEIA audit

    MLRisk managementcodes

    L-MHLL ?Pollution prevention

    LHL-MMLLegal enforcementM-HHLM-HLLegal framework

    MHLMLFinancial resources

    Thailand

    Singapore

    Philippines

    Malaysia

    Indonesia

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    20 th September 2007 ATLASCOPE sarl . Paris, France Slide No 31

    Level of prevention in the industry

    LMLMLEmergency responseHLHMHTraining needs

    MLMMMImproper storage of products

    MLMMHMisdeclaration

    M-LHLMLPrevention program

    Thailand

    Singa

    pore

    Philippines

    Malaysia

    Indonesia

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    20 th September 2007 ATLASCOPE sarl . Paris, France Slide No 32

    Training needs

    HighMediumThailand

    MediumLowSingapore

    HighHighPhilippines

    MediumMediumMalaysia

    HighHighIndonesia

    Mitigation andrehabilitation

    Prevention andpreparedness

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