Disaster, Development and Human Security:

Evolution of a Conceptual Framework

William E. Bertrand

webertrand@cs.com

Charting New Approaches to Defense and Security Challenges in the WesternHemisphere March 9-11, 2005 Coral Gables , Florida

Socio-Economic Status by Mortality

Adult Males Adult Females Children Total

SES N Death Rate

N Death Rate

N Death Rate

N Death Rate

High 173 66.5% 144 3.5% 5 0.0% 322 37.3%

Middle 160 91.9% 93 16.1% 24 0.0% 277 58.5%

Low 454 87.9% 179 45.3% 76 71.1% 709 75.3%

Un 875 78.4% 23 8.7% 0 - 898 76.6%

Total 1662 81.0% 439 23.5% 105 51.4% 2206 68.2%

Disaster Causes and Effects:We Know Where They Will Happen

Drought Areas

High Winds

Seismic Belts

Volcanic Eruptions since 1900

Drought Areas

High Winds

Seismic Belts

Volcanic Eruptions since 1900

Increasing Number of Events Qualifying as Natural Disasters in Latin America & the

Caribbean, 1900-2000

Source: Charvériat, 2000.

Development Risk Continuum

Underdevelopment

Disaster

Socio-EconomicDemographic

PoliticalCultural/Religious

Human CapitalGeographic

TimeFactors

Key Characteristics

• Disasters– Time = acute– High Visibility– Political support from

all sides– Conflict resistant– Military role is evident– Cash catalyst

• Development– Time = long term – Low visibility– Variable political

support– Conflict friendly– Military role unclear– Cash black hole

History of a Concept in South America

• Disaster/Response/Mitigation - OFDA, PAHO,Regional Associations – separate and not equal

• More recently Vulnerability/Poverty Reduction/ Development– Training programs in Colombia, Bolivia and Argentina– Change in focus at the Regional level– Focus on human security including right to personal security

and food security

Lessons from Recent DisastersLack of disaster preparedness at all levels.

Lack of mitigation planning

Lack of communication networking and dissemination of information among states

Delayed response due to mismanagement of

relief, resources, manpower and duty delegationLack of Interface and Coordination with State, District Administration & Community

HUGE LOSS OF LIFE & PROPERTY

Our Problems

• Lack of formal training• Rapid turnover of leaders• Little or no incentive structure for

professional advancement• Lack of linking mechanisms between

disaster response and security• Fuzzy leaders still not looking at evidence

or investing in prevention i.e. vulnerability reduction.

International Aid as a Function of Direct Disaster

Note: The regression sample is disasters since 1960 resulting in economic losses of more than US$50 million and the corresponding amounts of aid received for 16 countries in Latin America

Source: Disaster Risk Management: National Systems for the Comprehensive Management of Disaster Risk and Financial Strategies for Natural Disaster Reconstruction, IADB, 2003.

Preparing is Possible and Preferable

• To develop frameworks for vulnerability reduction and natural disaster mitigation.

• For Collaborative training and capacity building on disaster management

• For Deployment of rapid response and assessment teams on request.

• To build Institutional capacity for country specific and regional,education, academic and training institutions

Disaster Risk Factors

POLITICAL

ECONOMICSOCIAL

DEVELOPMENT

INDIVIDUAL AND COMMUNITY

COUNSELING AND MEDIATION,

INFRASTRUCTURE, AND ECONOMIC

INTERVENTION

RAPID ASSESSMENT AND RELIEF

EARLY WARNINGSYSTEM

TYPE OF DISASTERRISK FACTORSIMMEDIATE

CONSEQUENCES

LONG-TERM

CONSEQUENCES

PERSON PLACE

TIME[SOCIO-BEHAVIORAL, AND

ENVIRONMENTAL]

Natural DisasterViolent Conflict

Epidemic

DISPLACEMENT/MIGRATION

INFRASTRUCTURE DESTRUCTION

POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, AND SOCIAL CHAOS

Development

PREVENTION MITIGATION RECONSTRUCTION DEVELOPMENT

Local Disaster Index (LDI)

• LDI represents– A country’s proneness to lower level or small scale

disasters• Represents spatial variability and dispersion of risk in a

country– Type of impact lower level or small scale disasters

have on local development• Captures incidence and uniformity of distribution of local

effects

• Higher LDI = greater the regularity in the magnitude and distribution of effects between all the countries municipalities due to different types of hazards

Source: Indicators of Disaster Risk and Risk Management, IADB-UNC/IDEA, 2005

Aggregated LDI for the Depts. of Colombia, 1986-1990

Source: Indicators of Disaster Risk and Risk Management, IADB-UNC/IDEA, 2005

Disasters and Complex Emergencies

• Same Underlying Causes• Located in the same places• Entrance through the military portal is

difficult and problematic• Entrance through the disaster portal is

supported by all sides• Recognize that the problems come from

all sides now and need to be treated as such