diffusion of iso 14001 environmental management system: global, regional and country-level analyses

Accepted Manuscript

Diffusion of ISO 14001 environmental management system: global, regional andcountry-level analyses

W.M. To, P.K.C. Lee

PII: S0959-6526(13)00852-4

DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2013.11.076

Reference: JCLP 3845

To appear in: Journal of Cleaner Production

Received Date: 30 April 2013

Revised Date: 24 September 2013

Accepted Date: 29 November 2013

Please cite this article as: To WM, Lee PKC, Diffusion of ISO 14001 environmental managementsystem: global, regional and country-level analyses, Journal of Cleaner Production (2014), doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2013.11.076.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2013.11.076

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Diffusion of ISO 14001 environmental management system: global, regional and

country-level analyses

W.M. To a* , P.K.C. Lee b

a Macao Polytechnic Institute, Macao SAR, the People’s Republic of China

b The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, the People’s Republic of

China

* Corresponding author: W.M. To

Macao Polytechnic Institute, Rua de Luis Gonzaga Gomes, Macao SAR, the

People’s Republic of China

Tel: +853 8599 3319; fax: +853 2872 7653

Email: [email protected]

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Abstract

This paper explores the diffusion patterns of the ISO 14001 environmental management

system worldwide. By using the data obtained from the ISO Survey of Certifications,

the diffusion of ISO 14001 was investigated at global, regional, and country-specific

levels. The results showed that both global and regional patterns resembled a typical

logistic growth curve. The parameters of logistic curves were identified using nonlinear

regression estimation, and the total number of ISO 14001 certificates issued was

projected. At the country-specific level, correlation analysis was performed and three

distinct groups were identified. The three groups resembled logistic growth curves with

different growth rates. The spatial-temporal analysis showed that the diffusion of ISO

14001 was from west to east due to supply chain dynamics and change in the volume of

total exports.

Keywords: ISO 14001; diffusion; logistic growth; global, regional and country levels

1. Introduction

Green production is a business strategy and an innovation that focuses on

effectiveness and profitability through environmentally friendly design, procurement,

production, and delivery processes. The ISO 14000 family of standards is designed to

enable worldwide adoption of green production (ISO, 2012a, 2012b) and covers

various aspects of environmental management, assessment, and auditing at

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organizational, process, and product levels. In particular, the certification standard ISO

14001 has been widely adopted in a wide variety of organizations across the world

since its creation in 1996.

ISO 14001 has been widely researched in different disciplines in the past twelve

years (Albuquerque et al., 2007; Bansal and Bogner, 2002; Bansal and Hunter, 2003;

Boiral, 2007; Corbett and Kirsch, 2001; Delmas, 2001, 2002; Gavronski et al., 2008;

González-Benito and González-Benito, 2005; Heras-Saizarbitoria and Boiral, 2013;

King et al., 2005; Lagodimos et al., 2007; Marimon et al., 2011; Morrow and

Rondinelli, 2002; Nawrocka et al., 2009; Nishitani, 2010; Potoski and Prakash, 2004;

Prakash and Potoski, 2006; Qi et al., 2011; To et al., 2012a; Viadiu et al., 2006; Vastag,

2004; Zeng et al., 2005). Some researchers focused on motivations for the standard’s

implementation (e.g. Bansal and Bogner, 2002; Bansal and Hunter, 2003; Boiral, 2007;

Chan and Wong, 2006; Gavronski et al., 2008; González-Benito and González-Benito,

2005; Jiang and Bansel, 2003; Morrow and Rondinelli, 2002; Prajogo et al., 2012;

Vastag, 2004), while others offered insights into the standard’s potential benefits (e.g.

Gavronski et al., 2008; Prajogo et al., 2012; Summers Raines, 2002; To et al., 2012b).

One particular research area that has drawn a lot of attention is the diffusion of ISO

14001. A significant body of literature on this research area has been available, offering

insights into ‘how’ ISO 14001 diffuses at the country level (Casadesus et al., 2008;

Delmas, 2002; Lagodimos et al., 2007; Qi et al., 2011), regional level (Delmas, 2002),

and global level (Alburquerque et al., 2007; Corbett and Kirsch, 2001; Nishitani, 2010;

Viadiu et al., 2006). Recently, Heras-Saizarbitoria and Boiral (2013) have performed a

meta-analysis of research articles published between 1995 and 2012 on meta-

management standards including ISO 9001 and ISO 14001. They suggested that future

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research should be devoted to a number of areas including creation of meta-standards

for global governance, international diffusion of meta-standards, motivations for and

benefits of adoption of meta-standards, and difference in internationalization of meta-

standards, among others.

The insights into the diffusion patterns of ISO 14001 at country, regional and

global levels enable stakeholders of ISO 14001, including ISO Technical Committees,

government accreditation agencies, and certification bodies, to tailor their promotion

and marketing strategies to suit the characteristics of their target markets. On the other

hand, they help researchers forecast the trend and development of ISO 14001 adoption

at various levels, thereby facilitating worldwide sustainability development (Robèrt,

2000). This paper aims at (i) identifying the stages of ISO 14001 diffusion at global,

regional, and country-specific levels, (ii) predicting the future growth of ISO 14001

certification at these levels, and (iii) exploring the spatial-temporal diffusion of ISO

14001 and the relationship between ISO 14001 diffusion and exports.

2. Literature Review

2.1 ISO 14001 environmental management system

In 1987, the World Commission on the Environment and Development of the

United Nations published the report “Our Common Future” in which sustainable

development is defined as the principle of “meeting the needs of the present without

compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” (WCED, 1987;

p.12). The report also calls for new insights into effective environmental management

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by means of, for example, decision support systems. When the United Nations hosted

the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, ISO collaborated with the International

Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) on development of environmental standards (ISO,

2012a). A few months later, ISO and the IEC formed a technical committee TC207 to

oversee the development of the environmental management system (Bansal and Bogner,

2002). The ISO 14001 environmental management system was launched in 1996 and

updated in 2000 and 2004.

As stated in the ISO website (ISO, 2012b), an environmental management

system that meets the requirements of ISO 14001:2004 has the following characteristics.

It is a management system (or part of an overall system) that (i) identifies significant

environmental aspects and controls the environmental impacts of an organization’s

activities, products or services; (ii) uses a systematic approach to setting and achieving

environmental objectives and targets and demonstrating that the objectives and targets

are achieved; and (ii) improves an organization’s environmental performance

continually. ISO suggests that the main aim of ISO 14001 provides a framework for a

holistic, strategic approach for an organization for setting its environmental policy,

plans, and actions. ISO 14001 is also applicable to all sizes and types of organizations.

Many researchers (Chan and Wong, 2006; Gavronski et al., 2008; Jiang and

Bansal, 2003; Morrow and Rondinelli, 2002; Prajogo et al., 2012, Summers Raines,

2002; To et al., 2012a; Zeng et al., 2005) focused on motivations for and benefits of

ISO 14001 certification, while (Bansal and Hunter, 2003; Nishitani, 2010; Potoski and

Prakash, 2004; Prakash and Potoski, 2006) tried to explain why organizations in certain

countries adopted this innovation. Potoski and Prakash (2004, 2006) reported that the

adoption rate of ISO 14001 varied between countries. Analyzing raw data from 108

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countries, they reported that the adoption rate tended to be higher in countries where

trading partners adopted this innovation and consumers wanted mechanisms for

identifying environmentally friendly firms (Prakash and Potoski, 2006). For the lack of

diffusion studies of ISO 14001, Casadesus et al. (2008) used logistic functions to study

the diffusion of ISO 14001 at the global level and in 13 selected countries with datasets

from 1995 to 2005. Casadesus et al. (2008) reported that the global saturation level of

ISO 14001 certificates was 64.6% in 2005 and forecast that the maximum number

would be 160,000. They also argued that by 2008 the saturation level would reach 95%

in most of the 13 selected countries, including Japan, China, and Spain (i.e. countries

with the highest numbers of ISO 14001 certificates at that time). Unfortunately,

Casadesus et al. (2008) underestimated the number of ISO14001 certificates in the

global level as well as in country-specific levels quite significantly because of the lack

of a sufficiently long time series of data – a problem that is not unusual in innovation

diffusion studies (Gatignon et al., 1989). Lagodimos et al. (2007) focused on ISO

14001 certification in Greece and showed that ISO 14001 penetrated more effectively

in the country’s manufacturing sector than services and commerce sectors. Qi et al.

(2011) studied the diffusion of ISO 14001 in China and found that signaling to foreign

customers and community stakeholders had a positive effect on the diffusion. Marimon

et al. (2011) analyzed the same subject and concluded that the diffusion among sectors

tended to be homogenous. Despite the fact that many researchers recognized the

importance of diffusion of ISO14000, studies investigating the details, the stages in

particular, of ISO14000 diffusion at the global, regional, and country-specific levels are

almost unavailable. Consequently, the first question of this study is as follows:

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Question 1: What are the stages of ISO 14001 diffusion at the global, regional and

country-specific levels?

2.2 Innovation diffusion

The diffusion of innovations has been studied by researchers over the past

decades (Bass, 1969; Fisher and Pry, 1971; Rogers, 2003; Ryan and Gross, 1943).

Rogers (2003) argued that an innovation, such as an idea or an organization practice

perceived as new by other units of adoption, was communicated among members of a

community while non-users might start adopting the innovation in the course of time.

More specifically, the diffusion of an innovation normally followed an S-shaped curve

with an initially slow rate of adoption, followed by a rapid rate of adoption, and leveled

off at the saturation level. Bass (1969) borrowed the ideas from ecology and

epidemiology and showed that the diffusion was governed by the following differential

equation:

( ) ( )[ ] ( )[ ]tFtFqp

dt

tdFtf −×+== 1)( Eq. (1)

where )(tf is the diffusion rate at time t, )(tF the cumulative fraction of adopters at

time t, p the coefficient of innovation and q the coefficient of imitation. By integrating

( )dt

tdFinto Eq. (1) with respect to time, the S-shaped cumulative distribution of

adopters is given as:

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( )

( ) ( )tqp

tqp

epq

etF +−

+−

+−=

1

1)( Eq. (2)

Fisher and Pry (1971) proposed a simple innovation/technology substitution model as:

( ) ( ) ( )[ ]tFtFrdt

tdF −×= 1 Eq. (3)

where )(tF is the fractional market share of the innovation at time t, and r is a constant

of proportionality. The time scale t may be chosen such that 2

1)( =midtF . By solving Eq.

(3), the fractional market share of the innovation is obtained as follows:

( ) ( )midttretF −−+

=1

1 Eq. (4)

In terms of diffusion of ISO 14001, Eq. (4) is rewritten as

( ) ( )midYeartrsaturation

e

NtN −−+

=1

Eq. (5)

where N(t) is the number of ISO 14001 certificates in a specific year t, Nsaturation is the

saturation level of ISO 14001, r is the growth rate, and Yearmid is the year with the

highest growth.

Norton and Bass (1987) compared Bass’s model and the logistic growth model

shown in Eq. (4) and found that the two models performed almost equally well when

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fitted to real innovations’ data. The logistic growth model is simple to use and able to

make accurate predictions with modern data on innovation or utility (Yang and

Williams, 2009; Lai and To, 2012), and adoption of organizational practices (Attewell,

1992; Casadesus et al., 2008; Guler et al., 2002; Viadiu et al., 2006). Attewell (1992)

reconceptualized the diffusion of an organizational practice in terms of organizational

learning, skill development and knowledge barriers. He argued that government service

bureaus, consultants, and simplification of the technology could facilitate the diffusion.

Guler et al. (2002) studied the diffusion of ISO 9001 certification in 85 countries

between 1993 and 1998 and argued that the coercive effects of multinational

corporations and government agencies, and competition-based mimicry generated by

role equivalence in trade facilitate the diffusion of ISO 9001 certification. Thus,

globalization has quickened its pace since the 1990s and so has the diffusion of

organizational practices such as ISO 9001 and ISO 14001 (Guler et al., 2002). In this

study, we also applied the logistic growth model as an analysis technique. In order to

update the literature on the recent ISO14000 diffusion, we investigated the following

two research questions,

Question 2: How many organizations will adopt ISO 14001 in future?

Question 3: What was the spatial-temporal diffusion of ISO 14001 between 1998

and 2009 based on the analysis of the logistic growth model?

3. Methodology

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3.1 Data sources

The number of ISO 14001 certificates issued in each region and country was

obtained from the ISO Survey of Certifications – 2009 (ISO, 2011). The survey

included data on ISO 14001 from 1998 to 2009. The numbers of ISO 14001 certificates

issued in 1996 and 1997 were obtained from the ISO Survey of ISO 9000 and ISO

14000 Certificates – 10th Cycle (ISO, 2000) respectively.

3.2 Data analysis

The data were transferred from an Excel file provided by ISO (ISO, 2011) to a

working file. Non-linear regression was applied using the logistic model as shown in

Eq. (5) and the solution was obtained through minimization of the sum of errors

between the actual data and the fitted data (i.e. the mean error (ME)). The other

measures of errors, including the mean percentage error (MPE) and the mean absolute

percentage error (MAPE), were also adopted to check the overall fit of the logistic

model. The results obtained were checked using nonlinear regression in the SPSS 17.0

statistical package.

4. Results

4.1 Global level

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According to the data provided by ISO, the total number of ISO 14001

certificates issued by the end of 1996 was 1,491. The total number increased to 13,994

in 1999, 49,440 in 2002, 111,163 in 2005, and 223,149 in 2009. Figure 1 shows the

numbers of ISO 14001 certificates issued worldwide from 1996 to 2009.

“Take in Figure 1”

Figure 1 shows that the growth of ISO 14001 certificates follows an exponential

curve in the beginning but has slowed down since 2008. The total number of ISO

14001 certificates was fitted to a logistic function using nonlinear regression estimation.

The resulting function is given below.

( ) ( )200833.01

379900−−+

=tGlobal e

tN Eq. (6)

where )(tNGlobal is the total number of ISO 14001 certificates issued by the end

of year t, 379900 is the total number of ISO 14001 certificates at the saturation level,

0.33 is the constant, and the middle of growth occurred in 2008 as determined from the

nonlinear algorithm. Figure 2 shows the actual data and the predicted data using Eq. (6).

The R2 between these two series is 0.995 and the mean error (ME) is 12. However,

since the total number of ISO 14001 certificates was 223,149 in 2009, the ME value is

very small. In addition, the mean percentage error (MPE) and the mean absolute

percentage error (MAPE) are 41.3% and 46.8% respectively, which are relatively high

mainly because of the percentage error going from 71.3 to 376.6% in the period 1996 to

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1998. The high percentage errors are related to the low adoption rates of ISO 14001 in

the early years (i.e. fewer than 10,000 certificates annually). By dismissing these three

years, MPE and MAPE become as low as 0.8% and 7.8% respectively. Overall, these

results suggest that our estimation (Figure 2) could adequately predict the future

ISO14000 diffusion in the global market. According to Figure 2, the number of ISO

14001 certificates will be close to 300,000 in 2012 and 346,000 in 2015.


4.2 Regional level

The regional numbers of ISO 14001 certificates issued are also shown in Figure

1. Europe and the Far East have the highest percentages of ISO 14001 adoption. In

2007, the Far East surpassed Europe and has since been the biggest user of ISO 14001

certificates. Similar to the global-level analysis, nonlinear regression estimation was

applied to each region, while the certificate numbers at saturation isaturationN , , the time

constantir , and the middle of growth in year imidYear , of Eq. (7) were determined.

( ) ( )imidi Yeartrisaturation

ie

NtN

,1,

−−+= Eq. (7)

Table 1 shows the values of isaturationN , , ir , and imidYear , for each region. The R2 values

between the actual and predicted time series, the mean error, and the mean percentage

error are also shown in Table 1.

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“Take in Table 1”

Table 1 shows the growth rates of the analyzed regions. The results suggest that

these countries can be divided into two groups. The first group includes Europe,

Africa/West Asia and the Far East with similar values of r ranging from 0.3 to 0.37. For

example, the number of ISO 14001 certificates issued in Europe is characterized by Eq.

(8).

( ) ( )20083.01157870

−−+=

tEurope etN Eq. (8)

The second group includes Australia/New Zealand, North America and

Central/South America as their growth rates (i.e. values of r) are markedly higher than

those in the first group. It should be noted that the values of R2 of Australia and New

Zealand are relatively low, while their mean error and mean percentage error are

relatively high in comparison with the number of certificates issued. Figures 3 and 4

show the actual and predicted time series of the two groups of regions.



After determining the growth patterns at the regional level, the total number of

ISO 14001 certificates worldwide was obtained by summing up the contribution from

each region. This bottom-up prediction was then compared with the actual data and the

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predictions obtained in Section 4.1. The R2 between the actual data and the predicted

values using the regional-level approach is 0.996, and the mean error is 514. The mean

percentage error (MPE) and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are 0.6% and

6.8% respectively for years from 1999 to 2009. The R2 value between the two predicted

time series, the mean percentage difference and the mean absolute percentage

difference are 0.999, 0.5% and 3.6% respectively using the data from 1996 to 2009. In

terms of forecasting, the predicted value for 2012 is 299,810 using Eq. (6) and 320,024

using the regional-level estimates, indicating a 6.7% difference. The predicted value for

2015 is 345,596 using Eq. (6) and 375,449 using the regional-level estimates, indicating

an 8.6% difference. Eventually, the total number of ISO 14001 certificates issued will

be 416,230 using the regional-level approach and 379,900 using the global-level

approach, leading to at least a 70% increase since 2009.

4.3 Country level

The top 30 countries in terms of ISO 14001 certificates in 2009 are shown in

Table 2. The table shows that the top 5 countries were from the Far East and Europe,

namely China, Japan, Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom. There were more than 10

thousand ISO 14001-certified organizations in these countries by the end of 2009. In

fact, China, Japan, Spain and Italy export a wide range of consumer products. The total

number of certificates issued in the top 30 countries was 204,942, accounting for 91.8%

of ISO 14001 certificates issued in 2009.


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In order to group these 30 countries by similar growth patterns, pair-wise

correlations between countries in terms of the number of certificates issued from 1996

to 2009 were determined. Three distinct groups are shown in Table 3. It should be

noted that Thailand, Australia and Brazil do not belong to any of these groups and

hardly correlate with each other. In fact, the total number of ISO14001 certificates

dropped significantly between 24 and 62 percent in 2007 in these three countries. The

pattern of ISO 14001 adoption could not be fitted by a logistic curve.


Figures 5 to 7 show the 12 countries with more than 4,000 ISO 14001

certificates issued by the end of 2009. In Group 1, most of the six countries (i.e. China,

Spain, Italy, Korea, Romania and Czech Republic) have passed their maximum growth

recently but still have relatively high potential to grow in terms of ISO 14001

certificates as shown in Figure 5. In fact, Group 1 includes most of the major export-

oriented countries in the global market. In Group 2, three developed countries (i.e.

Japan, the United Kingdom and France) reached their maximum growth in 2006 or

2008 but their growth rates of ISO 14001 certificates will sustain in the near future. The

same goes for most of the other countries in this group, including Switzerland, Hungary,

Poland and Austria. Group 2 mostly consists of developed European countries while

Poland, Austria and Hungary have focused on heavy industry in recent years. In Group

3, organizations in three developed countries, including Germany, the USA and

Sweden, have adopted ISO 14001 widely and their numbers of ISO 14001 certificates

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have saturated at 5,800, 5,800 and 4,300 respectively. A similar situation happened in

most of the other developed countries in the group, such as the Netherlands, Canada,

Finland and Denmark.




Table 4 shows the projected saturation level, the rate of growth, the year of

maximum growth and the correlation between fitted data and actual data of each

country with more than 4,000 ISO 14001 certificates issued by the end of 2009. It is

observed that these 3 groups had very different growth rates and the logistic curve

generally reproduced accurate actual data.


After determining the growth patterns at the country level, the total numbers of

ISO 14001 certificates in the top 12 countries, accounting for 81.2% of ISO certificates

issued in 2009 (Figures 5-7), were obtained by summing up the contribution from each

country. This bottom-up prediction was then compared with the actual data and the

predictions obtained in Sections 4.1 and 4.2 (Figure 8). In fact, the total number of ISO

14001 certificates issued in these 12 countries will account for 76% of the total number

of ISO 14001 certificates issued in 2015 based on the projection by the global model.

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China alone will contribute to 30% in 2015 in comparison with 55,316 certificates

issued in 2009, accounting for 25% of the total number, which was 223,149.


By normalizing the number of ISO 14001 certificates to the projected number at

saturation, the top 30 countries in Table 2 (excluding Thailand, Australia and Brazil)

are plotted in Figure 9. It can be observed that most of the countries passed the

maximum growth (except Romania and Russia) and had a medium growth rate of r=0.3

to 0.7.


Rogers (2003) proposed that innovation adopters could be broadly categorized

into innovators (the first 2.5%), early adopters (the second 13.5%), early majorities (the

third 34%), late majorities (the next 34%), and laggards (the final 16%) based on the

percentage of an area under the first derivative of the logistic function. Hence,

Germany, the Netherlands, Finland, Denmark, the USA, Canada and Taiwan, are

considered innovators as shown in Figure 9. The figure also shows that the early

adopters were Korea and Switzerland, the early majorities were Italy, Iran, Turkey,

Mexico, Malaysia, Poland, Spain, India, Japan, France, Hungary, Austria and the UK,

and the late majorities were China, Czech Republic, Romania, and Russia. None of the

top 30 countries were laggards as most laggards are developing countries.

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4.4. Accuracy of logistic models

The models developed above were checked using the data obtained from the

summary of the ISO Survey of Certifications – 2010 (ISO, 2012c). At the global level,

Eq. (6) predicted that the number of ISO 14001 certificates would reach 250,453 by the

end of 2010, which was 519 (or 0.21%) less than the actual number (250,972) reported

by ISO (2012).

At the regional level, the logistic models using the coefficients in Table 1

predicted that the number of ISO 14001 certificates would be 9,820 for Africa/West

Asia, 4,334 for Central/South America, 7,811 for North America, 101,930 for Europe,

135,645 for the Far East, and 2,199 for Australia/New Zealand, while the actual

numbers in these regions were 8,557, 6,423, 6,302, 103,126, 124,922, and 1,642

respectively in 2010 as reported by ISO (2012). The percentage errors ranged from

1.16% for Europe to -33.91% for Australia/New Zealand. If the aggregated values were

used, the predicted global number of ISO 14001 certificates was 261,739 which was

10,767 (or 4.29%) more than the actual number in 2010.

At the country-specific level, the top 10 countries in terms of ISO 14001

certificates in 2010 were China, Japan, Spain, Italy, the UK, Korea, Romania, Czech

Republic, Germany and Sweden. The predicted numbers of ISO 14001 certificates

using the coefficients in Table 4 are shown in Table 5, as well as the actual numbers. It

is found that the percentage errors ranged from -1.88% for China to 24.77% for

Romania. If the sum of these numbers was used, the predicted number of the total ISO

14001 certificates for the top 10 countries was 189,477 in 2010, which was 569 (or

0.30%) more than the actual sum of 188,908.

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The above analyses illustrate that the logistic function obtained in Eq. (6)

accurately predicted the number of ISO 14001 certificates in 2010 at the global level.

At the regional level, the coefficients shown in Table 1 accurately predicted the

numbers of ISO 14001 certificates in 2010 for Europe and the Far East with 2.33 and -

6.53 percentage errors respectively. However, the differences between the predicted

and actual numbers in 2010 for the other regions were quite large in percentage terms,

ranging from 17.90 to 33.90 percentage error. At the country-specific level, the

coefficients obtained in Table 4 predicted the number of ISO 14001 certificates in 2010

for the top 10 countries with 1.88 to 24.77 percentage error.

5. Spatial-temporal Diffusion of ISO 14001

Past research (Potoski and Prakash, 2004, 2006) showed that globalization

promoted the diffusion of ISO 14001 via trade linkages. Looking back at the

development of world trade in the past fifteen years, we observed that organizations in

North American and West European countries adopted ISO 14001 much earlier than

those in other parts of the world in the mid 90s. However, as world trade expanded

rapidly through global supply chains, trading partners of the West in the Far East

started adopting ISO 14001 in the early 2000s. Recently, global supply chains have

extended to countries in South America and Euro-Asia.

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Figure 10 shows the spatial-temporal plots of ISO 14001 adoption based on the

ISO data in 1997, 2001, 2005 and 2009, indicating that only the UK and Japan had

more than 500 ISO 14001-certified organizations by the end of 1997, and 17 countries,

including 10 EU countries, Canada, the USA, Australia, Japan, Korea, China and

Taiwan had more than 500 ISO 14001-certified organizations by the end of 2001. The

number of countries with more than 500 ISO 14001-certified organizations increased to

29 and Japan had the largest number of organizations at 23,466 by the end of 2005. The

number of countries with more than 500 ISO 14001-certified organizations further

increased to 48 and China was the country with the largest number at 55,316 by the end

of 2009.


To substantiate the linkage between ISO 14001 and cross-country trading, we

carried out a post-hoc analysis of the association between the number of ISO 14001

certificates and the statistical data on international trade from the World Trade

Organization (WTO, 2010), and the plot of the number of ISO 14001 certificates

against export volumes in 2001, 2005, and 2009 was produced. Figure 11 shows that

there is a relationship between these two variables (R = 0.686, p <0.01 for 2001 and

2005; R = 0.537, p <0.01 for 2009), thereby confirming the linkage between ISO 14001

adoption and international trading. However, the linkage between ISO 14001 and

international trading becomes less significant when the number of ISO 14001

certificates increases, suggesting that competition-based mimicry (Guler et al. 2002)

diminishes when the adoption of ISO 14001 reaches the final stage.

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6. Discussions and Conclusion

The findings of the study illustrate that the diffusion of ISO 14001 closely

resembles a logistic function and the number of ISO 14001 certificates tends to saturate

at 379,900 worldwide, representing a 51.5% increase from 250,972 by the end of 2010.

Eq. (6) shows that there would be an increase of 50,000 certificates each in 2011 and

2012 and the increase in 45,800 certificates from the beginning of 2013 to the end of

2015. The biggest number of new ISO 14001 certificates issued will be in the Far East,

followed by Europe and Africa/West Asia.

The study contributes to the understanding of how the environmental

management practice (i.e. ISO 14001) has diffused worldwide. New ideas and practices

are normally adopted by organizations in developed countries which have more

resources. Through the close collaboration among firms in cross-country supply chains,

ISO 14001 has diffused from developed countries to major exporting countries, mostly

located in the Far East. In recent years, as globalization evolves more rapidly, emerging

nations such as Brazil, Russia, India and some Middle East and African countries start

promoting ISO 14001 nationwide to increase their organizations’ competitiveness.

Nevertheless, it should be noted that the logistic model did not apply to Australia,

Thailand, and Brazil that experienced a significant drop after 2006. This is disturbing

because, Brazil and Thailand were considered early adopters of ISO 14001, and now

they seem to be "early abandoners". There could be some events (e.g., pollution

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22

problems caused by certain well-known ISO 14001 certified firms) occurred in these

countries, that triggered their firms to question the effectiveness of ISO 14000. Future

research needs to be carried out to study this specific phenomenon.

The logistic functions developed in the present study have significant

implications for national bodies and certification companies. National bodies can

review the development of ISO 14001 in their own countries and assist organizations in

extending the scope of environmental certification beyond the organizational level and

to the process and product levels. For instance, relevant approaches, such as energy

management, life cycle assessment and eco-labeling, can be applied to different

process- and product-level activities. For certification companies, the findings of the

study enable them to better allocate resources to different regions for training and

certification purposes, and to explore the opportunities in countries in the categories of

late majorities and laggards.

With regard to the implications for organizations, our results suggest that ISO

14001 is a highly popular management standard for firms of both developed and

developing countries. While ISO 14001 requires certified firms to establish

environmental objectives and goals, many firms simply look at electricity savings, less

paper and water consumption, and reduction in pollutant emissions as environmental

goals. On the other hand, stakeholders, such as customers and governments, tend to

have high expectations of the scopes and levels of environmental practices adopted by

organizations. However, it is quite possible that an organization might shift its

environmental burden from one area to another unless a holistic approach, such as life

cycle analysis, is adopted (Shrivastava, 1995; To et al., 2012b).

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The correlation analysis between the number of ISO 14001 certificates and

export volumes in three discrete time periods, namely 2001, 2005, and 2009, indicates

that there is a significant linkage between ISO 14001 adoption and international trading.

The results show that the strength of the relationship weakens when the adoption of

ISO 14001 reaches a more mature stage. The finding also indicated that geographic

distance may not be an issue in innovation diffusion, in particular with the advent of

information and communication technology. Nevertheless, one should note that the

models presented in this paper should be used to explain ‘how’ and predict ‘how far’

the diffusion would proceed. The drivers and enablers of, and motivations for the

diffusion need to be further explored.

Acknowledgments

The authors gratefully acknowledge the constructive comments given by anonymous

reviewers and the Subject Editor, whose suggestions helped improve the quality of the

paper substantially.

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Figure captions

Fig. 1. The number of ISO 14001 certificates issued from 1996 to 2009.

Fig. 2. The total number of ISO 14001 certificates issued – actual versus predicted.

Fig. 3. The numbers of ISO 14001 certificates issued – actual vs. predicted.


Fig. 5. The numbers of ISO 14001 certificates issued – actual vs. predicted (Group 1).



Fig. 8. The numbers of ISO 14001 certificates – actual, predicted using the global level

and the regional level, and from top 12 countries.

Fig. 9. Countries at different locations of logistic functions.

Fig. 10. Countries had more than 500 ISO 14001 certificates in 1997, 2001, 2005, and

2009 respectively.

Fig. 11. The number of ISO 14001 certificates vs. export volumes in 2001, 2005, and 2009.

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Table 1. Coefficients of Eq. (7) and accuracy of predicted models.

Coefficients Accuracy (from 1999 to 2009) Region isaturationN ,

ir

imidYear , R2 Mean Error Mean Percent Error

Europe 157870 0.3 2008 0.995 1 -3.2

North America 7840 0.7 2002 0.992 -1 -1.9

Australia / New Zealand 2200 0.75 2000 0.749 348 28.5

Central / South America 4380 0.65 2003 0.979 1 4.7

Africa / West Asia 14600 0.36 2008 0.996 -1 9.1

Far East 229340 0.37 2009 0.995 1 -0.5

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Table 2. Top 30 countries in terms of ISO 14001 certificates in 2009.

Country Number of

ISO 14001

certificates

(2009)

Region Exports

US billion

in 2009

(ranking)

Country Number of

ISO 14001

certificates

(2009)

Region Exports

US billion

in 2009

(ranking)

China

Japan

Spain

Italy

United Kingdom

Korea

Romania

Germany

USA

Czech Republic

France

Sweden

India

Turkey

Switzerland

55316

39556

16527

14542

10912

7843

6863

5865

5225

4684

4678

4193

3799

2337

2324

Far East

Far East

Europe

Europe

Europe

Far East

Europe

Europe

North Am

Europe

Europe

Europe

West Asia

Europe

Europe

1202 (1)

581 (4)

219 (16)

406 (7)

352 (10)

364 (9)

41 (50)

1126 (2)

1056 (3)

113 (32)

4785 (6)

131 (28)

163 (21)

102 (33)

173 (20)

Taiwan

Thailand

Hungary

Russia

Poland

Australia

Brazil

Netherlands

Malaysia

Canada

Iran

Finland

Denmark

Austria

Mexico

2204

1864

1659

1503

1500

1432

1327

1326

1281

1221

1118

1107

947

919

870

Far East

Far East

Europe

Europe

Europe

Australia

South Am

Europe

Far East

North Am

West Asia

Europe

Europe

Europe

North Am

204 (17)

152 (25)

84 (35)

303 (13)

134 (27)

154 (23)

153 (24)

496 (5)

157 (22)

317 (12)

78 (36)

63 (37)

93 (34)

138 (26)

230 (15)

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Table 3. Grouping of 30 countries by similarity of growth patterns.

Group 1 Group 2 Group 3

China

Spain

Italy

Korea

Romania

Czech Republic

India

Turkey

Russia

Malaysia

Iran

55316

16527

14542

7843

6863

4684

3799

2337

1503

1281

1118

Far East

Europe

Europe

Far East

Europe

Europe

West Asia

Europe

Europe

Far East

West Asia

Japan

United Kingdom

France

Switzerland

Hungary

Poland

Austria

Mexico

39556

10912

4678

2324

1659

1500

919

870

Far East

Europe

Europe

Europe

Europe

Europe

Europe

North Am

Germany

USA

Sweden

Taiwan

Netherlands

Canada

Finland

Denmark

5865

4684

4193

2204

1326

1221

1107

947

Europe

North Am

Europe

Far East

Europe

North Am

Europe

Europe

Note: Thailand, Australia, and Brazil do not belong to any of the above groups and do not form a group.

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Table 4. The projected saturation level, the rate of growth, the year of the maximum

growth, and the correlation between fitted data and actual data.

Coefficients Accuracy iSaturationN ,

ri imidYear , R

Number of ISO 14001

certificates in 2009

Group 1

China

Spain

Italy

Korea

Romania

Czech Republic

Group 2

Japan

United Kingdom

France

Group 3

Germany

USA

Sweden

110000

22000

19000

8500

13500

9300

50000

20000

8200

5800

5800

4300

0.5

0.45

0.5

0.65

0.78

0.45

0.33

0.28

0.30

0.75

0.75

0.7

2009

2006

2006

2005

2009

2009

2006

2008

2008

2001

2002

2001

0.999

0.997

0.998

0.995

0.999

0.983

0.993

0.975

0.961

0.982

0.996

0.983

55316

16257

14542

7843

6863

4684

39556

10912

4678

5865

5225

4197

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Table 5. Top 10 countries in terms of ISO 14001 certificates in 2010 with predicted

numbers.

Top 10 countries in

terms of ISO 14001 in

2010

Numbers of ISO 14001

certificates

Predicted numbers using the

coefficients given in Table 4

Error in percent

China

Japan

Spain

Italy

UK

Korea

Romania

Czech Republic

Germany

Sweden

Sum:

69784

35016

18347

17064

14346

9681

7418

6629

6001

4622

188908

68471

39459

18879

16735

12729

8183

9257

5679

5793

4292

191468

-1.88%

12.69%

2.90%

-1.93%

-11.27%

-15.47%

24.77%

-14.33%

3.46%

-7.14%

569 (0.30%)

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50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Year

Num

ber

of I

SO

1400

1 ce

rtifi

cate

s

Far East

Africa / West Asia

Central / South America

Australia / New Zealand

North America

Europe

Fig. 1. The number of ISO 14001 certificates issued from 1996 to 2009.

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50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Year

Num

ber

of I

SO

1400

1 ce

rtifi

cate

s

Global

Fitted

Fig. 2. The total number of ISO 14001 certificates issued – actual versus predicted.

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0200004000060000

80000100000120000140000160000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Num

ber o

f IS

O 1

4001

ce

rtifi

cate

s

Year

Europe

Fitted

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Num

ber o

f IS

O 1

4001

ce

rtifi

cate

s

Year

Africa/West AsiaFiited

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Nu

mb

er o

f IS

O 1

400

1 ce

rtifi

cate

s

Year

Far East

Fitted

(a) Europe (b) Africa/West Asia (c) Far East


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0100020003000400050006000700080009000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Num

ber o

f IS

O 1

4001

ce

rtifi

cate

s

Year

North America

Fitted

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Nu

mb

er o

f IS

O 1

400

1

cert

ifica

tes

Year

Australia/ New Zealand

Fitted

0500

100015002000250030003500400045005000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Nu

mb

er o

f IS

O 1

40

01

cert

ifica

tes

Year

Central/South America

Fitted

(a) North America (b) Australia/New Zealand (c) Central/South America


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20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Nu

mbe

r of I

SO

140

01

Year

China

Fitted

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Nu

mbe

r of I

SO

140

01

Year

SpainFitted

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Nu

mbe

r of I

SO

140

01

Year

ItalyFitted

(a) China (b) Spain (c) Italy

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Nu

mbe

r of S

O 1

4001

Year

KoreaFitted

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Nu

mbe

r of I

SO

140

01

Year

Romania

Fitted

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Nu

mb

er o

f IS

O 1

400

1

Year

Czech RepFitted

(d) Korea (e) Romania (f) Czech Republic


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20000

40000

60000

80000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Nu

mbe

r of I

SO

140

01

Year

JapanFitted

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Nu

mbe

r of I

SO

140

01

Year

UKFitted

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Nu

mbe

r of I

SO

140

01

Year

FranceFitted

(a) Japan (b) United Kingdom (c) France


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0

2000

4000

6000

8000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Nu

mbe

r of I

SO

140

01

Year

Germany

Fitted

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Nu

mbe

r of I

SO

140

01

Year

USAFitted

0

2000

4000

6000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Nu

mbe

r of I

SO

140

01

Year

SwedenFitted

(a) Germany (b) USA (c) Sweden


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50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Actual

Total - predicted using Eq.(5)

Total - predicted using regional-level data

Total - top 12 countries

Fig. 8. The numbers of ISO 14001 certificates – actual, predicted using the global level

and the regional level, and from top 12 countries.

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China, Czech Republic

Japan, France,Hungary

Spain

Italy

U.K.

Korea

Romania

Germany, USA

Sweden, Taiwan

Netherlands, Canada

Finland, Denmark

India

TurkeySwitzerland

Russia

PolandMalaysia

Iran

Austria

Mexico

r=0.1

r=0.2

r=0.3

r=0.4r=0.5

r=0.6

r=0.7r=0.8

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Fra

ctio

n o

f IS

O14

001

certi

ficat

es c

ompa

red

to th

e sa

tura

tion

leve

l

0 1

Period of growth

Fig. 9. Countries at different locations of logistic functions.

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(a) 1997 – Only Japan and U.K. (b) 2001 – West European countries, Far East, Australia, North America

(c) 2005 – West European countries, Asia, Australia, North & South America (d) 2009 – EuroAsia countries, Australia, North & South America, Middle East Notes: 500-999 1000-1999 2000-3999 4000-7999 8000-15999 16000-31999 32000 and above Fig. 10. Countries had more than 500 ISO 14001 certificates in 1997, 2001, 2005 and 2009 respectively.

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y = 21.90x0.74

R² = 0.47

100

1,000

10,000

10 100 1,000Nu

mbe

r of I

SO

1400

1 ce

rtific

ates

(200

1)

Exports in USD billion (2001)

y = 38.39x0.76

R² = 0.47

100

1000

10000

100000

10 100 1000 10000Nu

mbe

r of I

SO

1400

1 ce

rtific

ates

(200

5)Exports in USD billion (2005)

y = 81.75x0.69

R2 = 0.29

100

1000

10000

100000

10 100 1000 10000Nu

mbe

r of I

SO

1400

1 ce

rtific

ates

(200

9)

Exports in USD billion (2009)

Fig. 11. The number of ISO 14001 certificates vs. export volumes for 2001, 2005, and 2009.

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The growth of ISO 14001 worldwide resembles a logistic function closely. There is a sustained growth of ISO 14001 in the Far East and European Regions. A significant relationship exists between the number of ISO 14001 and export. Spatial-temporal analysis shows that the diffusion of ISO14001 was from west to east.

diffusion of iso 14001 environmental management system: global, regional and country-level analyses

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