Differential Vulnerability and Dilemma of Responses to Climate Change in Low-income Coastal Communities of Lagos

Peter Elias

Department of Geography, University of Lagos, Nigeria

2nd International UGEC Conference

Urban transitions & transformations

National Taipei University

Nov.. 6-8, 2014

Introduction

Reality of Impact of climate change as depicted by recent flood events

Low-income coastal communities are likely to be more vulnerable to climate change

Efforts are ongoing to mitigate and adapt

High profile of socially disadvantaged coastal communities with high levels of poverty, deprivation or spatial segregation abound in Lagos

Uncoordinated responses and reactions

Inadequate capacities and adequacy of planning

Problem Statement

Responses to climate impacts are usually spontaneous without adequate data and knowledge on factors, pathways, exposure, risks and vulnerability

Leading to failure of adequately depicting good intentions and their unforeseen consequences and the not-so good intentions and the tragic consequences and how both kinds of consequences determine climate adaptation planning

Purpose Of The Study

- Identification of hotspots across selected communities

- Characterize vulnerability & impacts of climate change

- Map spatial variation of vulnerability & impacts

- Assessing capacity of existing adaptations and responses

- Implications for urban planning and adaptation

Review of Literature

Climate change scenarios postulate that wet regions will experience higher rainfall while dry regions will experience prolonged droughts (IPCC, 2007).

Current environmental problems in the coastal areas of the country include flooding which comes from the high rainfall amount, run-off from rivers, and sea level rise (Adeoti et al 2010).

According to Etuonovbe (2011), Lagos recorded the first flood in early 1970s and till date, flood has become a perennial event in the state.

The magnitude and severity of the changes and impacts in affected areas are however largely human-related (Andjelkovic, 2001).

Review of Literature (Contd.)

The cause of flooding varies from different areas to another.

Adeaga (2009) identified multi-factors viz including high population density, absence of zoning regulations, lack of flood control, and lack of emergency response infrastructure and early warning systems.

Similarly, Adenekan (2009) highlighted major causes of floods in built-up areas particularly in cities of developing countries to include unrestrained development of impermeable surfaces due to increasing urbanization resulting from increase runoff volume, runoff responses under high intensity rainfall, erection of building on floodplains, lack of storm-water drainage, failure to maintain existing drainage systems and weak institutional capacity of the urban administration. Changes in the intensity and pattern of storms have also been listed as factors that may influence the risk of flooding.

According to Smith1996 & Angela 2011, flood is the most common of all environmental hazards and it regularly claims over 20,000 lives and adversely affects about 75 million people world over

The Study Area: Lagos State belongs to the barrier-lagoon complex system with a stretch of curvilinear coastal line that measures approximately 180 km (about 21.1% of the Nigerian coastline). It occupies a total land area of about 3,577 sq. km, making it the smalleststate in the country. It is located within longitude 2042’E and 3042’E, and latitude 6022’N and 6052’. Lagos state is bounded to the south by the Atlantic Ocean; to the north and the eastern end by Ogun State and Benin Republic on the western end. Lagos State drains two-thirds of south-western Nigeria and is characterized by homogenous albeit locally-differentiated wetlands and a number of basins for major upstream rivers (Ogun, Osun and Yewa) from adjoining states to discharge into the Bight of Benin (Atlantic Ocean). The state is laced with fresh-water creeks, rivers, streams and lagoons. The low-lying areas of the state and the wetlandsoccupy about 78% of the entire landmass.

Results: Identified Flooded Communities in 2010 & 2011 Flood Events

Master plan 2010 2011Areas Severely Affected

Badagry Gbaji, Yeke, Joforo, Kese, Pashi, and parts of Seme Border (6) Mile 2 Estate, Okokomaiko, LASU-Ojo, Alaba, Gbaji, Yeke, Joforo, Kese, Pashi, and

parts of Seme Border (10)Lekki  Lekki phase 1 & 2, Alpha Beach, Langbasa, Peninsular (4) Lekki phase 1& 2, Alpba Beach, Langbasa (3)

Ikoyi/Victoria Island  Ikoyi, Victoria Island, Dolphin (3) Ikoyi, Victoria Island, Ozumba Mbadiwe (3)Ikeja/Oshodi Awolowo road, Anifowose, GRA,Ogba (3) Awolowo Road, Anifowose, GRA, Ogba, Ipodo, Ojodu, Jakande Estate – Oke Afa

Isolo, Ejigbo (9)Lagos Island  Obalende, Lagos Island, Marina (3)  Obalende, Lagos Island, Marina (3)Apapa  Apapa, Orile, Iganmu (3)  Apapa, Olodi Apapa, Ajegunle, Orile (4)Alimosho Ijegun, Ije-Ododo, Ijagemo (3) Aboru Canal, Iyana Ipaja, Lagos Abeokuta Expressway, Abule Egba, Ikotun, Ijegun,

Abaranje, Ijedodo, Isheri, Cele (10)

Mainland Central Makoko, Iwaya, Ebute-Meta,Ijora, Akerele-Surulere, Adekunle-Yaba (6)  Makoko, Iwaya, Ebute-Meta, Ijora, Adekunle (5)

Ikorodu Oko-Obi, Kosofo, Ajegunle-Ikorodu, Ikosi Ketu, Owode Elede, Thomas Laniyan Estate, Owode Onirin, Agboyi Ketu, Owode Orile, Odo Ogun, Mile 12, Itowolo and Ajiliti

(13)

Ketu Alapere, Mile 12, Ajiliti, Thomas Laniyan Estate, Owode Onirin, Agboyi, Owode Elede (7)

Agege Isheri North, Ojodu-Berger, Agege, Abatoir Canal, Orile Agege (5) Isheri North, Ojodu-Berger, Agege, Abbatoir Canal, Orile Agege (5)

Pattern of Precipitation & Rainy Days in Lagos

S/N Month 

Precipitation(mm)

 

AverageRainy Days

 

1 January 28 2

2 Ferbruary 46 3

3 March 102 7

4 April 150 10

5 May 269 16

6 June 460 20

7 July 279 16

8 August 64 101

9 September 140 14

10 October 206 16

11 Novemebr 69 7

12 Decemebr 25 2

  State Total 1828 123

Frequency of Flooding in Lagos

  1-2 

3-4 5-6 >6

Ibeju-Lekki 25     75Amuwo Odofin 5 23   73Ajeromi-Ifelodun 16 24 3 57Eti-Osa 13 26 6 56Lagos-Island 15 18 12 55Badagry 28 16 4 52Lagos-Mainland 19 17 14 50Alimosho 35 16 9 40Somolu 23 33 8 37Ifako-Ijaiye 21 35 9 36Mushin 7 44 15 34Apapa 17 50   33Ikorodu 22 44   33Kosofe 21 33 14 29Ojo 15 15 42 28Ikeja 6 54 14 26Surulere 17 54 5 24Agege 17 55 3 24Oshodi-Isolo 30 43 8 19Epe 35 53 12  STATE AVERAGE 20 34 9 37

Level of Impacts & Risks in 2010

Master Plan Area

Impacts Probability Risk

Ikeja Moderate Likely High

Mainland Moderate Likely High

Badagry Moderate Likely High

Alimosho Major Likely High

Ikoyi/Victoria Island

Major Very Likely Very high

Lekki Major Very Likely Very high

Lagos Island Major Likely High

Apapa Moderate Likely High

Ikorodu Major Likely Very High

Agege Major Likely High

Level of Impacts & Risks in 2011

Master Plan Area Impacts Probability Risk

Ikeja Moderate Likely High

Mainland Moderate Likely High

Badagry Major Very Likely Very high

Alimosho Major Likely High

Ikoyi/Victoria Island Major Very Likely Very high

Lekki Major Very Likely Very high

Lagos Island Major Likely High

Apapa Moderate Likely High

Ikorodu Major Likely Very High

Agege Major Likely High

Types of Responses & Actors’ Roles in Urban Climate Adaptation

Roles/Actors Federal Government

State Government Local Government Communities/NGOs Private Sector Households/Individuals

Policy making and planning + +     +  

Data base creation/ management

+ +   + +  

Vulnerability assessment/mapping

+ +   + +  

Awareness and education campaigns

+ + + + + +

Early warning systems design and implementation

+ + + + +  

Design and decision-making for investments

+ + + + +  

Risk reduction, livelihood development and resource

management

+ + + + + +

Capacity building + + + + + +

Implications & Recommendations

Selected communities in coastal Lagos have different vulnerability, impacts & risks

Responses and adaptation are highly uncoordinated and complex.

Multi-level and inter-agency approach clearly defining roles and power must be encouraged

Lagos State, should, therefore, without prejudice to politics and sentiments strengthen her strategies and partnerships with relevant agencies beyond the state government to take advantage of available resources at all levels towards capacity building for climate change adaptation.

Thank you

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