AMI -Agrarmarkt

Informationsgesellschaft

The Future of the German and European Pig Meat Sector

Món Sant Benet, 29.09.2011

Dr. Dietmar Weiß

Strong growth in German Pig Production

58,6

Pig slaughtering in Germany

Increase of 35 % in 10 years

head

Germany No. 3 in the world

23 % of EU-Pigmeat Production

1159,3

Main reasons for the growth

Cost advantage of slaughtering and cutting due to low labour costs

Enlargement of the EU 2004

Very competitive and efficient sector with good infrastructure in the main production areas

Strong increase of the live pig import

Import of live pigs

4,52

5,49

6,67

2,15

Consumption

Pigmeat production

Surplus

Production+ Import

Pork production exceeds consumption

Mio. tonnes carcass weight

German Trade with Pigmeat

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

1.800

2.000

2.200

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Import

Export

1.000 tonnes cw.

Plans to enlarge slaughter capacity- in the next 2 years -

Tonnies

- Rheda-Wiedenbrück

- Weißenfels

- Sögel

Vion- Emstek

- Lingen

Westfleisch (Group)

Danish Crown Germany

Vogler

Weekly capacity now Weekly capacity future

135.000 180.00090.000 120.00033.000 50.000

38.000 50.00018.000 25.000

122.000 135.000

63.000 80.000

40.000 45.000

Source: Survey of the Chambers of Agriculture April 2011

+ 20 % to 70 Mio. Pigs ??

Too many pigs in some regions

Plan to tighten the building law

Growing resistance of citizens against new / larger stables

Possible exit of piglet producersuntil 2013

0 – 10 %

10 – 20 %

25 – 35 %

20 – 30 % ?

Piglet production will decline less than 4 %!

German pig production depenson live pig imports

3,25,2 4,7

5,0

9,810,4

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

12,0

14,0

16,0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013

MillionPiglets

Slaughter Pigs

8,2

15,0 15,1 ??

German import of live pigs

Main challenge in the future:The acceptance of citizens and consumers!

Feel like a pig

No / less meat = Climate protection= healthy diet

Meat production= animal cruelty

Slaughterhouses try to react

! Sustainability !

- Animal welfare labels (from companies, but also label plans of politics)

- Co2 Footprint

- Coming soon: antibiotics, animal transportation, tail docking, ........

- Traceability / regional production

Intensive discussion of animal welfare and sustainability will move southwards

Decrease of the EU sow herd

in 1.000 head

Total 2010 % to Sows 2010 % to gilts %

pigs prev. year prev. Year prev. Year

Germany 26.705 26.509 0,7 2.185 2.243 -2,6 -8,4

Spain 25.479 24.703 3,1 2.336 2.521 -7,3 -5,9

France 13.837 14.142 -2,2 1.144 1.158 -1,2 -4,9

Poland 13.100 13.978 -6,3 1.214 1.393 -12,8 -8,9

Netherlands 12.383 12.250 1,1 1.105 1.090 1,4 10,4

Denmark 11.932 12.208 -2,3 1.264 1.323 -4,5 -7,9

Italy 9.290 9.324 -0,4 673 728 -7,5 -8,8

Romania 4.597 4.701 -2,2 350 360 -2,7 -2,7

UK 4.452 4.460 -0,2 513 501 2,4 4,2

Hungary 3.132 3.208 -2,4 300 319 -6,0 -9,9

Austria 3.049 3.120 -2,3 276 286 -3,6 -7,2

Czech Rep. 1.749 1.909 -8,4 112 133 -15,8 -20,6

Sweden 1.483 1.564 -5,2 151 167 -9,5 -17,3

EU (13 countries) 131.187 132.076 -0,7 11.623 12.221 -4,9 -5,5

EU Pig population, May/June 2011

12.000

13.000

14.000

15.000

16.000

17.000

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011e

Sow population in the EU (Dec.)1.000 head

Less sows in the EU

- 10 %

- 8 %

Lower pig production in the next years

240

245

250

255

260

265

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012e 2013e

257,7

255,1

249,1

255,1

258,5

254,0

251,0

Mio. head

Mid-term outlook for the EU Pig Sector

- Production and self suffiency ratio will decline but not break down

- Export opportunities to Russia could decline

but more exports to Asia

- Trade liberalisation could increase imports

- Cost price of pig production could increase

- Strong structural change in the pig meat sector

- Animal welfare and sustainability of pig production will play a more important role – fight for acceptance

Die Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft erstellt unabhängig und übergreifend aktuelle Fakten und Analysen für das gesamte Agribusiness.

Thank you for your attention

Competition of the land useFood or Energy

2,04

30

Maize for the biogas production

Share of the biogas usein percent

11

Bio energy offers more profit than pig production

Germany´s drop out of using nuclear energy will enlarge the use of bio energy

11

Rekordpreise für Futtermittel

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan

Preisentwicklung für Schweinemischfuttermittel Euro/t

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011AMI/LK

SauenFerkel

Mastschwein

Fehlende Wirtschaftlichkeit 2011

Unrentable Ferkelproduktion

D: Außenhandel Schweinefleisch

Exporterlöse:

2010: 2,20 Mrd.

2011: 2,23 Mrd.

2010 2011 11 gg. 10 Anteil

Tonnen Tonnen in % in %

EU-27 901.969 840.452 -6,8 71,9

Osteuropa/Baltikum* 148.189 141.196 -4,7 12,1

Italien 156.384 145.347 -7,1 12,4

Niederlande 145.984 138.926 -4,8 11,9

Polen 96.321 83.972 -12,8 7,2

Großbritannien 156.384 145.347 -7,1 12,4

Österreich 72.873 63.419 -13,0 5,4

Drittländer 302.254 328.659 8,7 28,1

Russland 145.316 146.338 0,7 12,5

China/Hong Kong 82.498 104.546 26,7 8,9

Südafrika 6.758 11.215 66,0 1,0

Südkorea 1.925 13.518 602,2 1,2

Ausfuhr insgesamt 1.204.223 1.169.111 -2,9 100,0

* Tschechien, Bulgarien, Ungarn, Rumänien, Slowakei, Estland, Litauen, LettlandQuelle: AMI/Statistisches Bundesamt, Wiesbaden

Deutschland: Ausfuhr von Schweinefleisch und Erzeugnissen

in Produktgewicht Jan. - Juni (vorl.)

EU-Prognose Schweinepreis 2011

Preis 2010 Progn. 2011

Tats. Preis

Euro kg SG Klasse E (kalt)

Quart. 1 1,34 1,43 1,43

Quart. 2 1,41 1,54 1,56

Quart. 3 1,48 1,58

Quart. 4 1,38 1,44

Jahr 1,40 1,50

1,56

Quelle: Prognoseausschuss der EU-Kommission

1,46

1,50

Deutschland 1,45 1,531,56

Riesen Strukturunterschiede

Sauen / Betrieb

2007

2010

Deutschland

87 Sauen

114 Sauen

Niedersachsen

106 Sauen

147 Sauen

(+ 31 %) (+ 39 %)

Quelle: Destatis Agrarstrukturerhebung 2010

Strukturen der Sauenhaltung 2010Anteil der Betriebe mit X % Sauen

0 bis 49

50 bis 99

100 bis 500

> 500

Quelle: Destatis Agrarstrukturerhebung 2010

Anteil der Sauen in diesen Betrieben

Insg. 2,36 Mio. SauenInsg. 20.815 Betriebe