1CT CLSA SECURITIES (PVT) LIMITED | A Member of the Colombo Stock Exchange

DIAL – Rs.14.5

Dialog Axiata

Sanjeewa Fernando

email : sanjeewa@ctclsa.lkPhone : +94 777 427439

Sri Lanka

Telecommunications

31 May 2018

CT CLSA SECURITIES (PVT) LIMITED | A Member of the Colombo Stock Exchange

Note: Valuations are based on recurring EPS, Adj. for Capital Issues (if any); Historic Ratios are based on Y/E MPSCTL impact of ~Rs.5bn for 2018E (w.e.f. 1 Apr 2018) is not expected to be implemented and thus not factored into our forecasts

Key Trading Information

Shares in Issue (mn) 8,143.8

Market Cap (US$ mn) 748.4

Estimated Free Float (%) 16.7

3M Avg Daily Volume 901,366.3

3M Avg Daily Turnover (US$) 79,950.4

12M High / Low (Rs) 14.8/11.2

3M / 12M Price Chg (%) 7.4/23.9

Key Highlights

1Q2018 Results Update

DIAL reported a 1Q2018 net profit (NP) of Rs.2,842mn (+84% YoY and -10% QoQ), broadly

in line with our expectations, driven by revenue growth and improved EBITDA margins

With a resultant 4 player market in the near term owing to the already announced Hutch and

Etisalat merger, DIAL may also find it cost efficient to fast track a possible merger option with

Airtel, i.e. the remaining smaller telco in SL, in order to increase DIAL’s profitability resulting

in a healthy mobile operator market in the medium to long term

DIAL’s NP forecasts for 2018E and 2019E are revised down by -3% and -5% to Rs.12,054mn

(+12% YoY) and to Rs.13,885mn (+15% YoY) on account of revised finance costs

The share outperformed the market during the past year, rising +24% compared to ASI’s -

4% decline. During past 3 months DIAL share continued to outperform the market by rising

+7% compared to the market’s -2% decline

On revised earnings, DIAL trades at PERs of 9.8X for 2018E and 8.5X for 2019E, with

EV/EBITDA multiples of 3.8X for 2018E and 3.5X for 2019E and provide relatively high ROEs

of 19% - 21% in the short to medium term

We believe that the recent re-rating of the share is justified given DIAL’s recently improved

earnings fundamentals. A potential merger / acquisition between DIAL and Airtel (the

remaining acquirable candidate) could remain as a further catalyst to improve and sustain

the share price in the short to medium term

Relative Share Price Movement (%)

Financials - Year to 31 December 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E

Revenue (Rs mn) 73,930 86,745 94,196 104,558 113,968

Net Profit (Rs mn) 5,187 9,026 10,785 12,054 13,885

Earnings per Share (Rs) 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7

Earnings per Share Growth (%) -11.7 74.0 19.5 11.8 15.2

Price / Earnings Ratio (X) 16.8 9.5 9.9 9.8 8.5

Gross Dividends per Share (Rs) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Gross Dividend Yield (%) 3.0 3.7 3.1 2.9 2.9

EV / EBITDA (X) 4.4 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.5

Return on Equity (%) 11.3 17.8 18.6 19.4 20.5

Market Price per Share (Rs) 10.7 10.5 13.1 14.5 14.5

ASI

DIAL

90

100

110

120

130

30-May-17 27-Nov-17 30-May-18

EQUITY REPORT TITLE | DateA CT HOLDINGS GROUP AND CLSA GROUP COMPANY 2A CT HOLDINGS GROUP AND CLSA GROUP COMPANY

The Business

Dialog Axiata (DIAL), an 83.3% owned subsidiary of the Malaysian Axiata Group, is Sri Lanka’sleading mobile telco (estimated SIM market share of 44.2%), and also has a strong presence inbroadband, tele-infrastructure, Pay TV and CDMA (Code Division Multiple Access)

Recent Financial Performance

DIAL reported a 1Q2018 net profit (NP) of Rs.2,842mn (+84% YoY and -10% QoQ), broadly

in line with our expectations, driven by revenue growth and improved EBITDA margins

Quarterly Highlights

Revenue rose +18% YoY (+5% QoQ) to Rs.26,083mn in 1Q2018 largely driven by growth indata revenue due to increased small screen penetration. Telco data levy of 10% was removedw.e.f. 1 September 2017 resulting in the effective indirect tax on data reducing from 31.7%to 19.7%

o Mobile Data revenue rose +7% QoQ in 1Q2018 due to increased small screenpenetration and 4G conversion

o Fixed Home Broadband Revenue rose +17% QoQ and +49% YoY in 1Q2018,amid expanding network coverage and aggressive subscriber acquisitions

o Television revenue rose +9% QoQ and +9% YoY in 1Q2018 driven by increasedsubscription revenue and advertising revenue

o International Termination Revenue rose +12% QoQ and +27% YoY in 1Q2018due to growth in wholesale business coupled with a temporary ban on OTT (FB, Viberand whatsapp etc.) usage during March 2018

Dialog Axiata

1Q2018 NP +84% YoY, -10% QoQ

DIAL: Subscriber Growth

DIAL : ARPU (Rs.) & EBITDA Margin (%)

DIAL: MOU and Growth

Note: Valuations and ratios on a recurring basis; Adjusted for capital issues (if any) Source: Company interims^ As at end period

Key Figures & Ratios (Rs mn) 4Q2017 1Q2017 1Q2018 % YoY % QoQ 2016 2017 % YoY

Revenue (Rs mn) 24,801 22,165 26,083 17.7 5.2 86,745 94,196 8.6

Operating Expenses (Rs mn) 15,701 14,944 16,124 7.9 2.7 57,533 60,345 4.9

EBITDA (Rs mn) 9,100 7,221 9,959 37.9 9.4 29,212 33,851 15.9

Depreciation (Rs mn) 5,102 4,342 5,699 31.3 11.7 16,369 19,109 16.7

Net Finance Income / -Cost (Rs mn) -467 -892 -973 9.0 >+100.0 -2,363 -2,355 -0.4

Net Profit (Rs mn) 3,171 1,546 2,842 83.8 -10.4 9,041 10,785 19.3

Earnings per Share (Rs) 0.4 0.2 0.4 83.8 -10.4 1.1 1.3 19.3

EBITDA Margin (%) 36.7 32.6 38.2 5.6 4.1 33.7 35.9 2.3

Average Revenue Per User - ARPU (Rs) 392.0 375.0 390.0 15.0 -2.0 396.0 387.0 -9.0

Minutes Of Use - MOU per month 118.0 123.0 118.0 -4.1 0.0 133.0 120.0 -9.8

Revenue Per Minute – RPM 3.3 3.0 3.3 8.4 -0.5 3.0 3.2 8.3

DIAL : Smart Phone Penetration 52.0% 47.0% 53.0% 12.8 1.9 45.0% 52.0% 15.6

Capex (Rs mn) 13,499 3,994 2,385 -40.3 -76.6 26,363 30,635 16.2

Capex Intensity (%) 54.4 18.0 9.1 -8.9 -45.3 30.4 32.5 2.1

Net Debt to EBITDA (X)^ 0.8 1.0 0.8 -0.2 -0.1 0.9 0.8 -0.1

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

9

11

12

1Q2016 1Q2017 1Q2018

Prepaid subscribers (mn) - LHS

Postpaid subscribers ('000)

31

33

35

37

39

370

390

410

1Q2016 1Q2017 1Q2018

Avg Revenue Per User (Rs)

Group EBITDA margin - RHS

-6

-3

0

3

112

122

132

142

1Q2016 1Q2017 1Q2018

Minutes of Usage (MOU) / Month

QoQ Growth (%) - RHS

EQUITY REPORT TITLE | DateCT CLSA SECURITIES (PVT) LIMITED | A Member of the Colombo Stock Exchange 3CT CLSA SECURITIES (PVT) LIMITED | A Member of the Colombo Stock Exchange

Quarterly Highlights

EBITDA margin improved to 38.2% in 1Q2018 (from 32.6% in 1Q2017 and 36.7% in4Q2017) due to significantly reduced Sales & Marketing Opex (S&MO) to 10.9% of revenuein 1Q2018 (vs.14.6% in 4Q2017 and 15.2% in 1Q2017) as a result of adopting SLFRS 15w.e.f. 1Q2018 (as customer acquisition costs are capitalized under SLFRS 15)

Net Finance Costs (NFC) rose +9% YoY (+>100% QoQ) to -Rs.973mn in 1Q2018 due to arelatively volatile LKR (that includes a ~Rs.400mn FX loss in 1Q2018) and a relatively highLIBOR due to rising international interest rates. Meanwhile DIAL’s Net Debt increased byRs.2,430mn QoQ to Rs.30,615mn as at 31 March 2018 with Net Debt to EBITDA howeverfalling to 0.77X as at 31 March 2018 from 0.83X as at 31 December 2017 due to improvedEBITDA levels

Capex of Rs.2,385mn (-40% YoY, -77% QoQ) during 1Q2018 was directed towardsinvestments in High-Speed Broadband infrastructure consisting of capacity upgrades and LTEfocused coverage expansion. Investment in Data infrastructure included 4G capacityupgrades and 4G coverage expansion

The Government of Sri Lanka (GoSL) proposed Cellular Tower Levy (CTL: of Rs.200,000per tower per month from tower owning mobile companies - w.e.f. 1 Apr 2018) is highlyunlikely to be implemented (as it is) given the impracticality of the fiscal proposal

o If imposed, CTL will wipe off Rs.5bn p.a. from DIAL, given its ~2,100 tower ownership

DIAL purchased an 80.3% stake in Colombo Trust Finance (CTF) during 3Q2017 in order toleverage its presence in the E –commerce space via FinTech. During 4Q2017 DIAL furtherincreased its ownership in CTF to 98.9%, following the conclusion of the mandatory offer on2 November 2017. DIAL expects to commence its Digital bank from 2Q2018E

o Based on the CBSL guidelines, DIAL is expected to infuse ~Rs.500mn each from2018E to 2020E, to be compliant with Basel III capital regulatory requirements (for the2017 capital infusion of Rs.550mn, DIAL received a 6 month extension up to June 2018)

During late April 2018, Hutch – Sri Lanka announced its plans to merge with Etisalat– Sri Lanka, in order to remain relevant in a crowded 5 player market. If the deal isapproved by the regulator, resultant 4 players in the market will have the following spectrumand market shares

Sri Lanka Mobile-Telco Sector : Post Hutch + Etisalat Merger Scenario Analysis

Sri Lanka Mobile-Telco sector : Detail Spectrum Breakdown as at 31 Mar 2018

With a resultant 4 player market in the near term, DIAL may also find it cost efficient tofast track a possible merger option with Airtel, i.e. the remaining smaller telco in SL, inorder to help maintain DIAL’s industry dominance resulting in a healthy mobile operatormarket in the medium to long term

Dialog TV (DTV) meanwhile reported a net loss (NL) of -Rs.126mn (-23% QoQ) for 1Q2018compared to a NL of –Rs.736mn in 2017, largely driven by content costs (that are incurredin US$ terms: ~50% of DTV’s costs are incurred on content acquisition)

Further, Dialog Broadband Networks (DBN) reported a NP of Rs.605mn in 1Q2018 (+8%QoQ, >+100% YoY) compared to a NP of Rs.1.8bn for 2017, due to strong growth in FixedLTE Revenue. In 3Q2017, DIAL launched the pre-paid offering for Fixed Home Broadband inorder to expand affordability and to reach a wide spectrum of domestic Households

Subsidiary EBITDA Margins (%)

DIAL: Capex and Capex Intensity

Dialog Axiata

DTV Subscribers

LKR Change vs. Forex (Loss) / Gains

Post-Merger Scenario (Rank) DIAL (#1) MOB (#2) HUT + ETI (#3) AIR (#4)

Total Spectrum* (MHz) 127.5 50.0 50.0 22.5

Subscriber market share (%) 44.2% 28.0% 18.6% 9.2%

Estimated Customer base (mn) 13.0 8.1 5.4 2.7

Operator 2G - 900 MHz band 3G - 2100 MHz band 4G Fixed 2300 MHz band2G and 4G - 1800 MHz

band

DIAL 7.5 20.0 75 (15 MHz – 4G Fixed) 25.0 (10 MHz in 4G LTE)

MOB 7.5 15.0 - 27.5 (20 MHz in 4G LTE)

ETI 7.5 10.0 - 7.5

HUT 7.5 10.0 - 7.5

AIR 5.0 10.0 - 7.5

LTE = Long Term Evolution, MOB: Mobitel, HUT: Hutch – SL, ETI: Etisalat SL, AIR: Airtel SL

-4

-2

0

2

-550

-300

-50

1Q2016 1Q2017 1Q2018

Forex gain / (loss) Rs mn - LHS

US$:LKR change %

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

4

8

12

16

1Q2016 1Q2017 1Q2018

Capex (Rs bn) - LHS

Capex as a % of Revenue

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

34

44

54

64

1Q2016 1Q2017 1Q2018

DBN EBITDA Margin (%)

DTV EBITDA Margin (%) - RHS

390

420

450

0

200

400

600

1Q2015 3Q2016 1Q2018

DTV-Pre Paid ('000) - LHS

DTV-Post Paid ('000)

EQUITY REPORT TITLE | DateA CT HOLDINGS GROUP AND CLSA GROUP COMPANY 4A CT HOLDINGS GROUP AND CLSA GROUP COMPANY

Outlook & Valuations

DIAL’s NP forecasts for 2018E and 2019E are revised down by -3% and -5% to

Rs.12,054mn (+12% YoY) and to Rs.13,885mn (+15% YoY) on account of revised

finance costs

We revise up DIAL’s revenue growth forecast for 2018E to +11% YoY on account of

one off increase in international termination revenue during 1Q2018. We also revise up

DIAL’s revenue growth forecast for 2019E to +9% YoY owing to anticipated delay in

consumption pick up (that will likely happen in 2019E now) due to anticipated supply side

shocks in the near term given recent adverse weather related impact on the economy

DIAL’s EBITDA margin for 2018E is revised up to 37.5% (from 37.0% previously) due to

relatively high EBITDA levels reported in 1Q2018, owing to capitalization of customer

acquisition costs. However we anticipate EBITDA margins to come under pressure especially

in 2Q2018E on account of anticipated high content acquisition costs at DTV due to the LKR

depreciation witnessed thus far up to end May 2018. Whilst DIAL is expected to continue its

improving EBITDA margins in the medium term through its cost rescaling initiatives, we

revise up its EBITDA margins to 37.7% levels (37.5% previously) in 2019E

DIAL expects to reach a significant 4G coverage by December 2018E and we estimate

its capex intensity at ~25% for 2018E and 2019E (vs. 32.5%in 2017). DIAL continues to

however be faced with the risk of accelerated depreciation on account of high technological

obsolesce in the medium term

DIAL’s Net Finance Costs for 2018E and 2019E are revised up by +48% and +47%

to Rs.3,577mn (+52% YoY) and Rs.3,731mn (+4% YoY). Relatively high finance cost

revisions are attributed to revised LKR/US$ and LIBOR assumptions with total AEIRs

estimated at 8.6% each for 2018E (vs. 7.3%: 2017) and 2019E and LKR forecast at

Rs.162/US$ and Rs.169/US$ with average LIBOR anticipated at 2.45% and 2.55% for 2018E

and 2019E respectively

We anticipate DIAL’s digital bank on micro lending to contribute to its bottom-line from

2019E onwards, given the time needed to create business analytics and financial intelligence

in the near term. This initiative, however, if implemented correctly, would likely act as a

model for future fin-tech related applications in the country

We believe the recently proposed CTL will likely have a significant negative impact on the

investor sentiment if implemented, and thus expect CTL to be repealed / amended by

the Government in the near term

The share outperformed the market during the past year, rising +24% compared to

ASI’s -4% decline. During past 3 months DIAL share continued to outperform the

market by rising +7% compared to the market’s -2% decline

On revised earnings, DIAL trades at PERs of 9.8X for 2018E and 8.5X for 2019E, with

EV/EBITDA multiples of 3.8X for 2018E and 3.5X for 2019E and provide relatively

high ROEs of 19% - 21% in the short to medium term

We believe that the recent re-rating of the share is justified given DIAL’s recently improved

earnings fundamentals. A potential merger / acquisition between DIAL and Airtel (the

remaining acquirable candidate) could remain as a further catalyst to improve and

sustain the share price in the short to medium term

Dialog Axiata

NP revised down by -3% and -5% for 2018E and

2019E

EBITDA margins revised up owing to cost rescaling

initiatives

Finance costs revised up due to rising int’l interest

rates and revised LKR outlook

A potential merger with Airtel could re-rate DIAL

share in the medium term

Average ROEs of ~20% on offer

Implementation of Cellular Tower Levy

(CTL) unlikely

EQUITY REPORT TITLE | DateCT CLSA SECURITIES (PVT) LIMITED | A Member of the Colombo Stock Exchange 5CT CLSA SECURITIES (PVT) LIMITED | A Member of the Colombo Stock Exchange

DIAL Forecast Financials

Dialog Axiata

DIAL: Coverage (PoP)

Source: DIAL

DIAL : 4G Devise vs. Smart Phone Penetration (Own base)

2017 % YoY 2018E^ % YoY^ 2018E % YoY 2019E^ % YoY^ 2019E % YoY

Revenue 94,196 8.6 103,616 10.0 104,558 11.0 112,941 8.0 113,968 9.0

Operating Expenses 60,345 4.9 65,278 8.2 65,348 8.3 70,588 8.0 71,002 8.7

EBITDA 33,851 15.9 38,338 13.3 39,209 15.8 42,353 8.0 42,966 9.6

Depreciation 19,109 16.7 21,464 12.3 21,487 12.4 23,004 7.1 23,070 7.4

Net Finance Costs 2,355 -0.3 2,410 2.3 3,577 51.9 2,538 -29.0 3,731 4.3

Net Profit 10,785 19.5 12,391 14.9 12,054 11.8 14,552 20.7 13,885 15.2

EBITDA Margin (%) 36.0 2.3 37.0 2.8 37.5 4.2 37.5 0.0 37.7 0.5

ARPU (Rs) 387 -2.3 393.3 1.6 394.4 1.9 402.6 2.1 402.6 2.1

Key Figures : Income Statement (Rs mn)

2016 2017 2018E 2019E

Net Debt to EBITDA (X) 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8

Capex to Revenue (%) 26.7 32.5 25.0 25.0

Net Debt (Rs mn) 26,152 28,185 31,285 34,414

Free Cash Flow (Rs mn) 6,039 3,216.0 13,070 14,474

Capex (Rs mn) 23,173 30,635 26,139 28,492

Balance Sheet Ratios

^Previous forecast, CTL impact of ~Rs.5bn for 2018E and 2019E (w.e.f. 1 Apr 2018) is not factored into our forecasts

Mobile Operator (Rank) DIALOG (#1) MOBITEL (#2) HUTCH (#3) AIRTEL (#4) ETISALAT (#5)

31 March 2018 44.2% 28.0% 10.2% 9.2% 8.4%

30 September 2017 43.8% 27.8% 9.7% 8.7% 10.0%

31 March 2017 43.4% 27.7% 8.7% 8.5% 11.7%

Sri Lanka – Mobile Operator SIM Market Share Behaviour

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1Q2017 2Q2017 3Q2017 4Q2017 1Q2018

2G 3G 4G (Mobile) 4G (Fixed)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1Q2016 1Q2017 1Q2018

Dialog Axiata 4G devise penetration

Smart phone penetration (own base)

EQUITY REPORT TITLE | DateA CT HOLDINGS GROUP AND CLSA GROUP COMPANY 6A CT HOLDINGS GROUP AND CLSA GROUP COMPANY

Dialog Axiata

Major Shareholder Movements

Major Shareholder Movements as at 31 March 2018

No. Name No. of Shares %Change

(Shares)*Comment

1. Axiata Investments (Labuan) Ltd 6,785,252,765 83.3 -

2. Employees Provident Fund 180,787,158 2.2 - GoSL Related Party

3. Norges Bank Ac 2 134,714,879 1.7 -

4. SAGA Tree LLC 118,595,642 1.5 -

5. JPMCB Scottish ORL SML TR GTI 6018 83,426,021 1.0 -

6. Pershing LLC S/A Averbach Grauson and Co. 63,039,981 0.8 -

7. Saga Tree Asia Master Fund 60,862,436 0.8 -

8. CF Ruffer Inv Funds : CF Ruffer Pacific Fund 57,314,300 0.7 -

9. Vittoria Fund – ST, L.P. 54,512,186 0.7 -

10. Hosking Global Fund PLC 44,081,055 0.5

11. T Rowe Price Funds SICAV 39,445,307 0.5 -4,144,475

12. Alliance Bemstein Next 50 Emerging Markets (Master) Fund SICAV 38,024,290 0.5

-

13. Rubber Investment Trust LImited 36,668,830 0.5 -

14. International Finance Corporation 23,239,400 0.3 -8,804,000

15. J.B Cocoshell (Pvt.) Limited 19,401,262 0.2 +2,175,000

16. UPS Group Trust 18,880,000 0.2-

17. The Ceylon Investment PLC 18,797,647 0.2-

18.

HSBC International Nominees Limited - BBH -Prusik Asian Smaller Companies Fund Public Limited Company 18,200,000 0.2

-

19.HSBC International Nominees Limited - SSBT-Parametric Emerging Markets Fund 17,294,868 0.2

-

20.The Ceylon Guardian Investment Trust PLC A/C No. 02 16,470,454 0.2

-

Total 7,829,008,481

*Change since 28 February 2018

EQUITY REPORT TITLE | DateCT CLSA SECURITIES (PVT) LIMITED | A Member of the Colombo Stock Exchange 7CT CLSA SECURITIES (PVT) LIMITED | A Member of the Colombo Stock Exchange

CT CLSA SECURITIES (PVT) LTDA Member of the Colombo Stock Exchange

4-14 Majestic City, 10 Station Road, Colombo 4, Sri LankaGeneral: +94 11 255 2290 to 2294 Facsimile: +94 11 255 2289

Email: info@ctclsa.lk Web: www.ctclsa.lk

A CT HOLDINGS GROUP AND CLSA GROUP COMPANY

Disclaimer : This document has been prepared and issued by CT CLSA Securities (Pvt) Ltd. on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data andother sources, believed to be reliable. Whilst all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are fair andreasonable, neither CT CLSA Securities (Pvt) Ltd. nor any director, officer or employee, shall in any way be responsible for the contents. CT CLSA Securities (Pvt) Ltd. mayact as a Broker in the investments which are the subject of this document or in related investments and may have acted upon or used the information contained in thisdocument, or the research or analysis on which it is based, before its publication. CT CLSA Securities (Pvt) Ltd., its directors, officers or employees may also have a positionor be otherwise interested in the investments referred to in this document. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred to in this document. It is notintended to provide professional, investment or any other type of advice or recommendation and does not take into account the particular investment objectives,financial situation or needs of individual recipients. Before acting on any information in this publication/communication, you should consider whether it is suitable foryour particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek your own professional advice, including tax advice.

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Dialog Axiata

Trading & Sales

Lasantha Iddamalgoda lasantha@ctclsa.lk +94 11 255 2295+94 77 778 2103

Dyan Morris dyan@ctclsa.lk+94 11 255 2320+94 77 722 4951

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Research

Sanjeewa Fernando sanjeewa@ctclsa.lk+94 77 742 7439

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Consultant / Sales

Rohan Fernandorohan@ctclsa.lk +94 11 255 2297+94 76 778 2101