dhp re-calibration

DHP Re-Calibration

Moving to Uo-based Calibration (away from Thermostat-based Calibration)

Regional Technical ForumMay 13, 2014

Phase I

Adjustment to SEEM Output to Match Bills(for Houses with “well-known” Heating Energy Use)

2

Background: DHP Calibration

• Existing DHP Phase I Calibration, approved in July 2013, is based on the old Thermostat Setting calibration method:

3

Zonal Set-Point from RBSA SEEM

“calibration”

66.9 F

64.8 F

61.5 F

“Calibrated” DHP Daytime

Set Point

67.7 F

67.0 F

64.4 F

Difference betweenzonal and

DHP settings

0.8 F

2.2 F

2.9 F

Heating Zone

1

2

3

http://rtf.nwcouncil.org/meetings/2013/07/Creating_DHP_UES_2013-07-16_rev6.pptx

Goal: Determine Uo-based Phase I Calibration Factors for DHPs

4

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35

Adju

stm

ent F

acto

r

Uo (both)

SEEM Phase 1 Calibration Factors

eFAF or Zonal Heating Zone 1



HP or Gas FAF Heating Zone 1



Methodology• Use DHP Metering Study data (n=95 pre billing,

post metering) to interpolate between the Zonal/eFAF and HP/gFAF calibration factors.

– See the following for more details:• “DHPphaseIcalibrationMemo” document• “DHP_SEEM_calibration_PhaseI” workbook

• Two equally legitimate methods of interpolating, both give slightly different answers– Average of Interpolations (=0.60)– Interpolation of Averages (=0.55)

5

Comparison

Heating Zone

Heating Electric Savings (kWh/yr) Difference from Original

OriginalInterpolation of Averages

(=0.55)

Average of Interpolations

(=0.60)=0.55 =0.60

1 2,719 2,593 2,528 -5% -7%

2 2,604 2,565 2,479 -1% -5%

3 311 337 320 8% 3%

6

“Interpolation of Averages”, or =0.55, was selected since it results in overall savings closer to the original for the DHP UES measures.

Proposed Calibration Factors(DHP in Green)

7

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35

Adju

stm

ent F

acto

r

Uo (both)

SEEM Phase 1 Calibration Factors







DHP Heating Zone 1

DHP Heating Zone 2

DHP Heating Zone 3

Decision

• “I _____ move that the RTF adopt the revised Uo-based Phase I calibration adjustment factors for DHP’s.”

8

Phase II

Adjustment to Electric Energy Use for Non-electric Fuel usage, Unoccupied Houses, and houses with otherwise

misbehaved bills

9

1 75% 15% 11%

2 72% 13% 15%

3 72% 13% 15%

eFAF, Zonal, HP, or Gas FAF

EquipmentHeating

Zone

Electric Heating

Adjustment

Non-Electric Heat

Adjustment

Implied Adjustment for Unoccupied Houses and Houses with Otherwise Misbehaved

Bills

Background• Phase II Adjustments:

• For program-like houses (permanent electric heat, no non-electric FAF or boiler), the adjustments address:– Non-utility heating sources,– Program-permitted gas heat sources (e.g., gas fireplaces), and– Other SEEM Phase I calibration filters

• See September 2013 RTF meeting presentation for more details

Today’s Goal: Determine values for DHP.

10

http://rtf.nwcouncil.org/meetings/2013/09/SEEM%20Calibration_Phase%20II_rev11.pptx

Available Data

Source: DHP Pilot Study, R2≥0.45

11

Source: RBSA SF, Zonal Electric

Table 1: DHP billing study -- Homes with no supplemental fuelPre-Heat Post-Heat Home Size Pre-Heat Post-Heat

Heat Zone (kWh/yr) (kWh/yr) (ft²) (kWh/yr/ft²) (kWh/yr/ft²) n1 7603 4810 1514 5.02 3.18 20972 10973 9025 1605 6.84 5.62 1223 11326 9441 1930 5.87 4.89 76

ALL 7905 5187 1533 5.16 3.38 2295

Table 2: DHP billing study -- Homes with supplemental fuelPre-Heat Post-Heat Home Size Pre-Heat Post-Heat


ALL 6400 5659 1751 3.66 3.23 1097

Zonal DHP1 8,838 5,6362 10,772 7,5493 14,284 11,081

Htg ZoneHeating Energy Use

Source: SEEM runs, Phase I applied

Secondary supplemental fuel ratioHeat Zone Mean EB n

1 28% 7% 1592 20% 13% 333 70% 22% 12

Two UES Analysis Methods• The next two slides show the two methods in detail.• The difference between the two methods (in words):

– S1 uses the ratio of savings from the average house to non-supplemental fuel houses.

– S2 uses the ratio of energy use from the average house to non-supplemental fuel houses.

• Q: Which one’s better, correct? – They seem to offer the same correctness.

• S2 aligns better with our guidelines: Determines baseline and efficient case consumptions separately.

– The S2 Method will allow us to generate Phase II calibration factors for DHP’s (The S1 Method will not).

• The S2 Method aligns with our need to assign a separate “wood heat” adjustment factor to DHP’s.

– But they give different answers (especially in HZ3):

12

S1 S2

1 2,593 2,5852 2,565 2,7383 337 970

DHP Electric Heating Energy Savings (kWh/yr)Htg Zone Whether we should

revisit the DHP UES is out of scope for this presentation.

Secondary supplemental fuel ratioHeat Zone Mean EB n

1 28% 7% 1592 20% 13% 333 70% 22% 12

Background: DHP UES Savings Methodology13

Table 1: DHP billing study -- Homes with no supplemental fuelPre-Heat Post-Heat Home Size Pre-Heat Post-Heat


ALL 7905 5187 1533 5.16 3.38 2295

Table 2: DHP billing study -- Homes with supplemental fuelPre-Heat Post-Heat Home Size Pre-Heat Post-Heat


ALL 6400 5659 1751 3.66 3.23 1097

Zonal DHP1 8,838 5,6362 10,772 7,5493 14,284 11,081


Background: DHP UES Alternative Methodology14

Proposed Methodology

15

We continue to have no fully satisfying solution. Supplemental fuels use has been a difficult thing to pin down; it still requires a fair amount of judgment for DHP’s.

Step 1 – Apply implied adjustment to DHP

• Remember there’s a component of the adjustments that represents unoccupied houses and houses with otherwise misbehaved bills.

• We’ll assume DHP houses, on average, have the same results as other heating systems (which are based on RBSA data).

16

1 74.8% 14.7%

2 71.9% 12.8%

3 71.9% 12.8%


EquipmentHeating

Zone

Electric Heating

Adjustment

Non-Electric Heat

Adjustment

10.6%

15.3%

15.3%


Bills

10.6%

15.3%

15.3%

1

2

3

DHP

Step 2 – Re-state Known Adjustments

• The DHP Pilot data and UES savings methodology does not make adjustments for unoccupied houses or houses with misbehaved bills

• We’ll re-calculate the “eFAF, Zonal, HP, or Gas FAF” electric heating adjustments without the implied adjustment:

• This is R2.Z from the alternative method above (S2 method), but using RBSA specific data, rather than DHP Pilot data.

17

1 74.8% 14.7%

2 71.9% 12.8%

3 71.9% 12.8%


EquipmentHeating

Zone

Electric Heating

Adjustment

Non-Electric Heat

Adjustment

10.6%

15.3%

15.3%


Bills

10.6%

15.3%

15.3%

1

2

3

DHP

83.6%

84.9%

84.9%

Re-Stated Electric Heat Adjustment

(R2.Z(RBSA))

Step 3 – Find R2.D(RBSA) by using S2 from the DHP UES alternate analysis.

18

1 74.8% 14.7%

2 71.9% 12.8%

3 71.9% 12.8%


EquipmentHeating

Zone

Electric Heating

Adjustment

Non-Electric Heat

Adjustment

10.6%

15.3%

15.3%


Bills

10.6%

15.3%

15.3%

1

2

3

DHP

83.6%

84.9%

84.9%


(R2.Z(RBSA))

S1 S2

1 2,593 2,5852 2,565 2,7383 337 970

DHP Electric Heating Energy Savings (kWh/yr)Htg Zone Zonal DHP

1 8,838 5,6362 10,772 7,5493 14,284 11,081


Solve for R2.D(RBSA)

85.3%

84.8%

100.7%

Step 4 – Work backward to fill in the blanks.

19

1 74.8% 14.7%

2 71.9% 12.8%

3 71.9% 12.8%


EquipmentHeating

Zone

Electric Heating

Adjustment

Non-Electric Heat

Adjustment

10.6%

15.3%

15.3%


Bills

10.6%

15.3%

15.3%

1

2

3

DHP

85.3%

84.8%

100.7%

83.6%

84.9%

84.9%


𝐸𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑡𝐴𝑑𝑗𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡+𝑁𝑜𝑛𝐸𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑡𝐴𝑑𝑗𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡+𝐼𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑖𝑒𝑑…=100%

𝑅𝑒𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝐸𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑡 𝐴𝑑𝑗𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡=𝐸𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝐴𝑑𝑗𝑢𝑠𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡

𝐸𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝐴𝑑𝑗𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡+𝑁𝑜𝑛𝐸𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑡 𝐴𝑑𝑗𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡

76.2% 13.2%

71.8% 12.8%

85.2% -0.6%

Negative value doesn’t make sense, we’ll need to fix that.

Step 5 – Re-assign negative value in HZ3.

20

1 74.8% 14.7%

2 71.9% 12.8%

3 71.9% 12.8%


EquipmentHeating

Zone

Electric Heating

Adjustment

Non-Electric Heat

Adjustment

10.6%

15.3%

15.3%


Bills

10.6%

15.3%

15.3%

1

2

3

DHP

85.3%

84.8%

100.7%

83.6%

84.9%

84.9%


76.2% 13.2%

71.8% 12.8%

85.2% -0.6%

Again, not a completely satisfying solution, but it doesn’t affect savings too much:

S2 for HZ3 changes from 970 kWh/yr to 1,043 kWh/yr with this “tweak”.

84.7% 0% 100.0%

Decision

• “I _____ move that the RTF adopt the Phase II calibration adjustment factors for DHP’s.”

21

1 74.8% 14.7%

2 71.9% 12.8%

3 71.9% 12.8%


EquipmentHeating

Zone

Electric Heating

Adjustment

Non-Electric Heat

Adjustment

1

2

3

DHP

76.2% 13.2%

71.8% 12.8%

85.2% -0.6%84.7% 0%

dhp re-calibration

Documents

dhp houses

calibration adjustment

uobased calibration

calibration filterssee

unoccupied houses

nonsupplemental fuel

s2 method

dhp ues alternate analysis