development of a national broadband strategy in the middle ...€¦ · uk 2001 onwards: broadband...
TRANSCRIPT
MK689
Part I – Understanding the local context and
leveraging the available ICT technologies
Development of a national broadband strategy in the Middle East and Africa
9 June 2012 • David Eurin
MK689
Introduction
Understanding the local context
Leveraging the available ICT technologies
Conclusions so far
… this afternoon: roadmap for a national
broadband strategy
Contents
2
MK689
Analysys Mason has helped many countries to develop or refine national broadband plans
3
Ireland 2006-12: Design,
procurement and
implementation support for
the EUR 234m National
Broadband Scheme
UK 2001 onwards: Broadband planning
for regional development agencies on
the UK
UK 2005-2006: Development of
broadband scenarios for the BSG in
the UK
UK 2008 onwards: support to
Cornwall council in its Next
Generation Broadband project
UK 2008: Broadband stakeholder
group models for efficient public
sector interventions in next
generation broadband
Wales 2004 -2010: Commercial and
technical strategy, business planning,
procurement and implementation support
as part of National fibre broadband initiative
Malta 2011: Techno-economic feasibility of a
national FTTH network
Wales 2006: Study to
promote public intervention in
“second generation
broadband” market
UK 2010 onwards: Cost modelling of
next-generation broadband and
regional funding allocations
Italy 2001-2002: Analysis of
government intervention
mechanisms and
prioritisation for broadband
task force
US 2002-2003 : Study of US
broadband policy for TechNet
India 2010: Strategic road-
mapping and assessment of
drivers for the deployment
of a national fibre- optic
backbone in India
Chile 2007-2009: Broadband
promotion study in Chile
Malaysia 2002-2003: National
broadband policy development
Gulf 2010: Regulatory support in
major Gulf country to define three-
year internet development plan
New Zealand 2010 - 2011:
Technical and cost reviews
underpinning the Government’s
national Ultra-Fast and Rural
Broadband strategies
Australasia 2010- 2011: Operator
support to become national partner for
ultra- fast broadband solution.
Subsequently carried out review of
solution and identification of global
best practice
European Commission 2010-
2011: Developed a guide for
investment in broadband
infrastructure, covering small
regional roll outs and national
interventions alike
Norway 2002: Assessed
the potential social and
economic benefits from a
scheme to provide
broadband to selected
public sector sites
Singapore 2005-2006: Provided
support on Next Generation
Broadband Network Initiative
Western Europe 2004:
Analysis of Internet
access prices in Western
Europe
Thailand 2009:
Development of national
broadband plan
Brunei 2009-2010:
Development of national
broadband strategy
Lesotho 2012:
Development of
national
broadband plan
EMEA 2011: National
broadband market
assessment,
benchmarks and
forecasts
Australia 2009: STEM
license, training and
modelling assistance for
National Broadband project
Israel 2011: Technical audit of national
broadband solution used to evidence
international competitiveness and
sufficient investment capability to the
Government Egypt 2008: Provided
commercial and technical fixed
licence bid support addressing
i.a. national broadband
requirements.
Libya 2009: Provided commercial
and technical fixed and wireless
licence bid support addressing i.a.
national broadband requirements.
EU 2011 onwards: Socio-economic
benefits of broadband in 27 EU countries
and private sector funding analysis
Morocco 2011:
National action plan
for the development of
broadband
MK689
Introduction
Understanding the local context
Leveraging the available ICT technologies
Conclusions so far
Contents
4
MK689
Governments and banks use simple indicators
To make high-level investment decisions, different situations must
be compared and benchmarked
Only consistent indicators are useful
Therefore few indicators are used in practice
This does not reduce the need for an extensive set of indicators
to be studied by academics and economists
Local issues
Specific reviews
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Broadband economics are driven by density
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Source: Euromonitor, Analysys Mason
Proportion of total land area
holding 90% of the population Population density in selected countries
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Egyp
t
Alg
eri
a
Isra
el
Mo
rocco
Jo
rdan
Tunis
ia
Gaza
/ W
est
Ban
k
Syria
Leba
non
% o
f a
rea
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Gaza
/ W
est
Ban
k
Leb
ano
n
Isra
el
Syria
Egyp
t
Jo
rdan
Tunis
ia
Mo
rocco
Alg
eri
a
Inh
ab
. p
er
sq.k
m
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Demand for broadband is driven by wealth
7
Source Euromonitor
GDP per capita at PPP (2010)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Isra
el
Leb
ano
n
Tu
nis
ia
Alg
eri
a
Egyp
t
Jo
rdan
Syria
Mo
rocco
Germ
any
United K
ingd
om
Fra
nce
Spa
in
Italy
Gre
ece
Cyp
rus
Ma
laysia
Bots
wan
a
Sou
th A
fric
a
Th
aila
nd
Ukra
ine
Geo
rgia
EU
R a
t P
PP
FEMIP countries Other countries
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Fixed broadband is rare in the region …
8
Source: TeleGeography, Euromonitor
Fixed broadband penetration of households (2010)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Isra
el
Leb
ano
n
Jo
rdan
Tunis
ia
Gaza
/ W
est
Ban
k
Alg
eri
a
Mo
rocco
Egyp
t
Syria
Fra
nce
Cypru
s
United
Kin
gd
om
Germ
any
Gre
ece
Spa
in
Italy
Mala
ysia
Geo
rgia
Thaila
nd
Ukra
ine
Sou
th A
fric
a
Bots
wa
na
% o
f h
ou
se
ho
lds
FEMIP countries Other countries
DSL, cable, fibre
(FTTC, FTTH), fixed
WiMAX and satellite
technologies
MK689
… but mobile networks reach most people
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
Isra
el
Jo
rdan
Tunis
ia
Mo
rocco
Alg
eri
a
Egyp
t
Leb
ano
n
Gaza
/ W
est
Ban
k
Syria
Cypru
s
Italy
Gre
ece
Germ
any
Bots
wa
na
Spa
in
United
Kin
gd
om
Ma
laysia
Ukra
ine
Thaila
nd
Geo
rgia
Sou
th A
fric
a
Fra
nce
% o
f p
op
ula
tion
FEMIP countries Other countriesBenchmarks of mobile penetration of population (2010)
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Prices are a lead indicator for take-up
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All in 2011 (mid-year)
Prices for the cheapest mobile broadband offers Prices for fixed broadband offers of up to 1Mbit/s
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Leb
ano
n
Syria
Alg
eri
a
Jo
rdan
Isra
el
Gaza
/ W
est
Ban
k
Tunis
ia
Egyp
t
Moro
cco
EU
R p
er
mo
nth
0
10
20
30
40
Syria
Isra
el
Tunis
ia
Jo
rdan
Mo
rocco
Egyp
t
EU
R p
er
mo
nth
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Total broadband penetration is still too low
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Egypt Israel Morocco Algeria Tunisia Jordan Lebanon Syria Gaza /WestBank
% o
f h
ou
se
ho
lds
Su
bscrib
ers
(m
illio
n)
Fixed broadband subscribers Mobile broadband subscribers Broadband penetration
Broadband subscribers and household penetration (2010)
MK689
Introduction
Understanding the local context
Leveraging the available ICT technologies
Conclusions so far
Contents
12
MK689
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Technology Features
Fibre-optic cable Highest capacity available, and highest cost of deployment;
main choice for backhaul and core networks
Copper-based
DSL
Much lower bandwidth than fibre; most practical where
copper networks exist
Fixed wireless Cost-effective widespread population coverage; HSPA+,
LTE and WiMAX can offer peak speeds similar to DSL
Mobile broadband Same economics as fixed wireless networks, but lower
capacity, aimed at smaller devices; most practical where
mobile networks already exist
Satellite
broadband
Offers ubiquitous services; very substantial investment, but
wide geographical coverage (sharing)
Public and private players can leverage different ICT technologies to offer broadband
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These technologies have different economics
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Illustration of the revenue-density approach
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Inte
rna
l ra
te o
f re
turn
(%
)
Population coverage (%)
DSL FTTC FTTH WiMAX HSPA HSPA+ LTE
Viable
areas
Non-
viable
areas
Urban Rural
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Fixed and mobile broadband costs vary (different outcomes and services)
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Source: Analysys Mason
Evolution of total coverage costs for FTTC
Evolution of total coverage costs for LTE
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
EU
R (
bill
ion
)
Morocco Algeria
Egypt Gaza/West Bank
Israel Jordan
Lebanon Syria
Tunisia
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
EU
R (
bill
ion
)Morocco Algeria
Egypt Gaza/West Bank
Israel Jordan
Lebanon Syria
Tunisia
ICT indicators should include supply-side metrics, such as the total
cost of ownership of specific technologies
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Not one technology, but a combination
The best overall solution will usually combine several
technologies, involving a trade-off of cost, performance and reach
that is considered appropriate for each context
The most suitable mix depends on
the economics of the technologies being considered
the geography and population of the country concerned
the services to be provided to different users and prices
the objectives of the country and the budget available
Governments and investors need ICT indicators to make these
decisions
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MK689
Introduction
Understanding the local context
Leveraging the available ICT technologies
Conclusions so far
Contents
17
MK689
Conclusions from Part I
A sound national broadband strategy will
be based on the local context (i.e. some key ICT indicators)
leverage specific strengths of ICT technologies
not be the same as strategies in other countries, but unique
have clear objectives, ambitions and budget
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... and still to come in Part II (this afternoon)
How to build a successful national broadband strategy
roadmap and approach
outline of the national broadband strategy document
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Contact details
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David Eurin
Partner, Head of Africa
Analysys Mason Limited
Bush House, North West Wing
Aldwych, London WC2B 4PJ, UK
Tel: +44 (0)845 600 5244
Fax: +44 (0)20 7395 9001
www.analysysmason.com