ACIAR Technical Workshop in Vientiane, 13-15 June 2012

Developing multi-scale strategies for farming communities to adapt to climate change in Cambodia, Laos, Bangladesh and India

Christian Roth, Thavone Inthavong, Seng Vang and ACCA team

ACCA project started in mid 2010; 4.5 year project in four countries

CSIRO: Peter Brown, Steve Crimp, Neal Dalgliesh, Don Gaydon, Zvi Hochman, Heidi Horan, Tanya Jakimow, Phil Kokic, Alison Laing, Uday Nidumolu, Perry Poulton, Christian Roth, Monica Van Wensveen, Liana Williams and others

Laos: Thavone Inthavong, Khanmany Khounphonh, Guillaume Lacombe, Vanthong Phengvichith, Silinthone Sacklokham, Pheng Sengxua, Sipaseuth, Khammone Thiravong, Xaysathid and others

Cambodia: Philip Charlesworth, EL Sotheary, LONH Le Non, MAK Soeun, MAO Minea, SAY Tom, SENG Vang, TOUCH Veasna and others

India: Suresh Kosaraju, Ravindra, Raji Reddy, Ratna Reddy, KK Singh, G Sreenivas, Chiranjeevi Tallapragada and others

Bangladesh: Zainul Abedin, Hazrat Ali, Sharmin Afroz, Iqbal Khan, Mahbubur Khan, Pranesh Kumar, Tao Li, Mamunur, Abdul Muttaleb, Harunur Rashid, Sanjida Ritu, M Sarker, Barkat Ullah and others

Consultants: Clemens Grünbühel, John Schiller

ACCA Team

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Climate analysis Characterisation of climate variabilityLocation specific

CC projections

Capacity buildingTraining in PAR

Communication aids

Model improvementValidation in new

environmentsTesting new routines

Social researchUnderstanding

adaptive capacityHousehold typologies

Scenario analysisUnderstanding climate

sensitivity of farming systemsMatching adaptation options to

farming system typologies

Outcomes

Evidence based climate change adaptation strategies at local and

provincial scales implemented

Principles/priorities for action at local and provincial scale applied

Farmers with enhanced adaptive capacity and improved livelihoods

Limits to adaptation recognised

On-farm researchTesting of options

Confidence building More effective climate risk

management

UpscalingSpatial transferability and

future climate adaptability of adaptation options

Stakeholder engagement

Seasonal climate forecasting

Piloting of advisories (India, Laos)

Development of adaptation design principles

Matching policy recommendations to typology based adaptation strategies

The Project in a Nutshell

Completed adaptive capacity assessments and household typology surveys.

– Brown, PR, IA Khan, VR Reddy, CM Grunbuhel, CH Roth, S Afroz and T Chiranjeevi (2012). Self-assessment of adaptive capacity to climate change by small-scale farmers in Asia – A pilot evaluation. Submitted to Global Environmental Change

Social research

Khan, IA and CM Grunbuhel (2011). Climate change and farming communities in Deltas: Coping with climate variability while adapting to Change. Technical Background Report - United Nations Development Programme: Bangkok

Jakimow, T (in press, accepted 23 Nov 2011). Using serious games to anticipate livelihood trajectories. Journal of Development Studies

Developed templates to map adaptation strategies and practices against household types

Example from Cambodia: Household Type D – Koul Characteristics ConstraintsCanal supplementary irrigated rice No irrigationLarge land size Small plots

Pond or community (lake) fishing System highly dependent on wage labour

Commercial vegetables Adaptation strategies & (practices)Specialisation (aromatic rice)Intensification of rice (double crop, mechanisation, varieties, nutrition, crop

husbandry)Diversification of farming system (vegetables/drip irrigation; forages + livestock?

aquaculture in ponds)Land consolidation

Social research

APSIM-ORYZA tested and validated on high quality IRRI datasets– Gaydon, DS, ME Probert, RJ Buresh, H Meinke, A Suriadi, A Doberman, B

Bouman and J Timsina, 2012: Rice in cropping systems – modelling transitions between flooded and non-flooded soil environments. Europ. J. Agronomy, 39:9-24.

– Gaydon DS, ME Probert, RJ Buresh, H Meinke and J Timsina, 2012: Modelling the role of algae in rice crop nutrition and soil organic carbon maintenance. Europ. J. Agronomy, 39:35-43.

APSIM-ORYZA validated on new datasets generated in Cambodia and Bangladesh

Sufficient confidence to use APSIM-ORYZA for scenario analysis in many rice based systems, but still need to address issues in some environments (e.g inundation, salinity)

Modelling

Wet & dry season testing of a range of adaptation practices on-farm to give farmers greater flexibility in responding to climate variability:

– India: changed sowing rules for cotton and maize; critical irrigation of cotton doubles yields; SRI in rice.

– Bangladesh: shorter duration and salinity tolerant rice varieties; cowpea and mungbeans as alternatives to dry season rice.

– Laos: improved varieties, eg. inundation tolerant rice varieties (TDK sub1); improved fertiliser practices; dry seeding of rice vs. transplanting.

– Cambodia: drum seeding; double cropping of two short duration rice crops vs. one traditional medium duration rice; fertiliser deep placement.

On-farm research - overview

Developing rice cropping strategies - Cambodia

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Developing rice cropping strategies - Cambodia

On-farm research – example Cambodia• Using a drum seeder allows earlier

planting of rice compared to traditional transplanting, with labour reductions of 24 man days for transplanting to 2 man days using the drum seeder

• This allows farmers to grow 2 short duration rice crops instead of one traditional medium duration crop, increasing overall annual rice production from ~2.5 t/ha to 4-6 t/ha

• Technology in early stages of testing; still needs some work to refine weed and residue management Traditional medium rice still maturing

Second short duration rice growing on second half wet season rainfall

• Phenology of Cambodian rice varieties• Nitrogen fertiliser transformation in paddy systems• Daily time step met data (model input data)

Calibration of model on CARDI dataset

Observed

Modelled biomass

Modelled yield

Modelled pond depth

Scenario analysis – optimising planting dates

29 years of met data

• Developed and implemented stakeholder engagement plans in each country; reviewed every 6 months

• At the policy level, targeted key policy makers for regular briefings or workshops; production of policy briefs India: AP Dept. of Rural Development & Dept. of Agriculture – linking CCA

to watershed development; Indian Meteorology Dept. – improving delivery and content of agroadvisories

Bangladesh: Comprehensive Disaster Risk Management Program – using ACCA typology methodology to better target adaptation strategies

Cambodia: Climate Change Dept. – ACCA to inform future CCA funding priorities under UNDP PPCR project; Svay Rieng Provincial Dept. of Agriculture – mainstream adaptation strategies into Commune Investment Planning

Generating policy impacts

• Leverage off NGOs and their other development initiatives: India: WASSAN – roll out climate risk

management through the Integrated Watershed Management Program; mainstream CCA into WSD

Cambodia: IDE – use Farmer Business Advisor program to disseminate adaptation practices (one FBA services 100-120 farmers; CIDA and EU funding FBA program to train >1000 FBAs)

• Train extension services in Laos and Cambodia to disseminate key project techniques

Generating community impacts

• Initial exchange between research teams in the ACCA project and the ACIAR rice establishment project (CSE-2009-037) and the ACIAR irrigation water management project (LWR-2009-046), particularly on direct seeding machinery and modelling capacity

• Regular interaction with the ACIAR policy project (ASEM-2009-023, Agricultural policies for the Mekong Region) and the socio-economic sub-project in the South Laos Project (CSE-2009-004), particularly in relation to household typologies

• Coordination of on-farm activities with the agronomic sub-project of the South Laos Project (CSE-2009-004)

• The SAARC project (LWR-2010-033, Capacity building in systems modelling) shares CSIRO personnel and is creating a critical mass of modelling expertise in Bangladesh

Key linkages to date (ACIAR projects)

• Use location specific climate projections to test impact of climate change on current cropping systems

• Conduct scenario analyses and future-proof current rice farming practices and new adaptation practices using APSIM-ORYZA parameterised for local environments and crop varieties

• Use the household typologies and generalised modelling to scale-up from case study sites

• Derive design principles and policy recommendations in collaboration with key stakeholders and policy makers

• Prepare for midterm review in Oct 2012

Where to from here?