developing foresight capacity - albino maggio
TRANSCRIPT
Meeting of the Independent Science and Partnership Council (ISPC)
Lima, May 25-26 2015
Developing foresight capacity
Albino Maggio University of Naples Federico II
Department of Agriculture and Food Science
PART I: A Few definitions
PART II: An Application
Foresight
http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC94867/lbna27252enn.pdf
PART I: A Few definitions
A definition
Foresight provides a space to different stakeholders and experts for systemic thinking and developing anticipatory knowledge. It explores future changes by anticipating and analysing possible future developments and challenges both qualitatively and quantitatively, and supports stakeholders to actively shape the future vision for today strategies and actions.
(from A Glossary of Terms commonly used in Futures Studies) http://www.fao.org/docs/eims/upload/315951/Glossary%20of%20Terms.pdfFull Version
Foresight
Why is thinking about the long-term powerful?
helps to get out from present day concerns
helps to go beyond the current mainstream thinking
helps to look for opportunities
better anticipate the challenges that shape the future
supports creativity for today's strategies and actions
helps break gridlock
Foresight …
does not predict the future
complements desk research analyses with structured dialogue
enhances future thinking by gathering anticipatory intelligence from a wide range of knowledge sources in a systematic way
structures the analyses to ensure the emergence of collective intelligence derived beyond established pathways and links it to today’s decision making
Foresight, Forecasting, Planning
Foresight can use forecasts, can contribute to planning,assumes that there are numerous possible futures that canbe created through the actions we choose to take today
A Forecast often assumes that there is one probable future
Foresight time horizons should be beyond the usual planninghorizons. Typical foresight time horizons vary between 5-30years but may be longer
Foresight Methods
PART II: An Application
JRC Foresight on Global Food Security 2030
Foresight exercise on EU's role in global food security by 2030 • Need for identifying a common vision
• Need for identifying key challenges and opportunities
• Need for prioritisation in policymaking
The Foresight Process• Agree on the most crucial drivers of change affecting food security in the future • Reach a consensus on the most likely vision for 2030• Challenge this vision by investigating drivers which could pose major challenges• Analyse current policies and policy needs in terms of responsiveness, flexibility and
resilience to future food security needs and challenge
Structure of the Foresight process
ForesightConcept & Structure
Designed(Brussels, 14 June, 2012)
Workshop ISustainability
(Seville, 8-9 Apr, 2012)
Workshop IIGeography
(Brussels, 10-12 Jul, 2013)
Workshop IIISupply/Demand
(Brussels, 2-22 Oct, 2013)
A Food Security Vision 2030Developed
Workshop IVPolicies
(Brussels, 19-20 May, 2014)
Challenging the Vision
Reflection on Policies
June 2012 May 2014
Vision buildingVision:
Formulation of an integrated perspective
The preferred plausible future embedding the organisation's values
The most likely future?
Uses:
Show where an organisation should be heading
Mobilise
Preparedness
The experts
Different expert for different workshops
Broad Coverage
Academia International Organizations NGOs Farmers Organizations Research Institutes/Governmental Industries
Main outcomes
• By 2030 and beyond, food security will increasingly be considered as securing food supply in response to changing and growing global demand.
• Food security is therefore not only a global and systemic challenge but also an opportunity for Europe to play a role in innovation, trade, health, wealth generation and geopolitics.
• Better coordination and coherence at EU level is necessary in order to move from a food security to a food systems approach.
What is a Vision? Desirable, yet plausible, of where we want to be in the future. Why is it useful? To engage stakeholders in a visionary approach in achieving and shaping a specific future.
Current policy alignment with Vision 2030
Current need for policy alignment with Vision 2030
Key future challenges and uncertainties
Uncertainty in the evolution of trade and markets
We envision…. the development of a balanced food system through steady economic growth, further liberalisation of markets and trade, increased transparency and regulation of the food system, and improved global governance on food.
Challenging factors:• Deadlock at WTO• Ultra-sensitivity of agriculture in trade negotiations• Nationalisation of food security concerns• Impact of food safety and quality standards• The role of climate change
Key future challenges and uncertainties
Challenges of changing and growing demand and urbanisation
We envision… a largely demand-driven food system where consumer behaviour shapes sustainable objectives.
Challenging factors: • Economic growth and changes in income will affect changing diets
and consumption patterns• Urbanisation not currently considered as a key driver (Increasingly,
feeding the world will mean feeding the cities) and its impact on food security is largely underestimated
Current EU Policy Positioning
• Current food security policies focus mainly on targeting pockets of food insecurity, where hunger and malnourishment persist
• EU food security policies do not fully consider the challenges andopportunities that are likely to arise out of the changing demographic and socio-economic trends that will transform the future global food system
• In response to changing and growing global demand, food security will increasingly be considered as securing food supply
• The extent of these global trends should be increasingly considered for and integrated into an EU food systems approach
Food Insecurityto Food System Approach
Key messages
Policy coherence and coordination is needed between differentEU policies to work towards a «food system» approach
Clearer recognition that «feeding the world in 2030» willessentially be «feeding the cities»
Increased recognition of the crucial role of demand-side dynamicsin shaping future food systems
In order to build food security solutions from the ground up a culture of innovation in food systems should be promoted
The Food System of
the Future
Thank your for your attentionAlbino MAGGIO
Jean-Paul MALINGREAU