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Designing Behavior Change Programs:An Emerging Strategy

Edward Vine

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory&

California Institute for Energy and Environment

ACEEE-CEE National Symposium on Market TransformationWashington, DC

March 18, 2010

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Topics

The Climate Imperative: California Example Insights from Behavior and Energy White PapersOther Relevant Work:

Paul Stern and colleagues CEE’s BIG work Public sector: NYSERDA, CARB, CPUC Private sector: OPOWER

Upcoming Conferences

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Californiaʼs GHG Emissions Goals

Reduce GHG emissions to 2000 levels by 2010 Reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 Reduce GHG emissions to 80% below 1990

levels by 2050

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Magnitude of the ChallengeMagnitude of the ChallengeARB Emissions Inventory

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1990 2000 2004 2020 2050

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1990 EmissionBaseline

~173 MMT CO2e Reduction

80% Reduction~341 MMT CO2e

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The Scale of the California ImperativeThe Scale of the California Imperative (Source: Skip Laitner, “The Climate Imperative and Innovative Behavior”)

BAU Innovation

With Expanded Innovation

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Insights from CPUC-FundedBehavior and Energy White Papers

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The findings, opinions, and conclusionsexpressed in this presentation are those of the

presenter and do not represent theopinions or policies of the CPUC or CIEE

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CPUC-Funded White Papers onBehavior and Energy *

1. Energy efficiency potential studies & behavior2. Energy efficiency measurement and attribution3. Process evaluation’s insights on energy efficiency program implementation4. Behavioral assumptions underlying energy efficiency nonresidential programs5. Behavioral assumptions underlying energy efficiency residential programs6. Market segmentation & energy efficiency program design7. Experimental design for energy efficiency programs8. Motivating policymakers, program administrators, & program implementers to

pursue behavioral change strategies9. Encouraging greater innovation in the production of energy-efficient

technologies & services

* Final report, project summary, & presentation available at: http://uc-ciee.org/energyeff/behavior.html

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Takeaway Message Climate change is the driving force for energy efficiency programs

Urgent and comprehensive response needed Foster innovative products, services, ideas & programs - doing more than what

we are doing now Behavior change strategies offer the potential for large-scale energy

savings Focus R&D effort based on experimentation & market segmentation Think outside the box:

Go beyond the PTEM model Promote social and technological infrastructure savings

Revise evaluation and attribution methods to better account for energysavings and non-energy benefits from behavior change strategies, usingexperimental design

Support more collaboration and communication - utility staff,policymakers, researchers, academics, consultants

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Potential for Large-Scale Energy Savings Household Behavior and Personal Transportation = ~9

quads (23% of 38 quads) Laitner, Ehrhardt-Martinez, and McKinney 2009

Household Behavior and Personal Transportation is 20%of household consumption in ten years, or ~8 quads(assuming 38 quads total) Dietz et al. 2009

Residential sector (not personal transportation) behavioris 25% of current residential energy consumption = ~5quads (25% of 20 quads) Gardner and Stern 2008

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Behavior Change Strategies:Affects Energy Use and Energy Decision-making

Setting goals Conducting competitions Making commitments Tailoring information Providing feedback Using social norms Using community-based social marketing

Source: Karen Ehrhardt-Martinez, “Energy Efficient Behavior in a RegulatoryEnvironment.”

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Experimental Design #1

Experimental designs allow sorting out of theworkings of causes, effects, program designelements, population characteristics, consumerchoice processes, household dynamics, etc.

Vary treatments, control variables and comparehypotheses based on observed outcomes (e.g.,energy use).

Natural science model – but also used ineducation, public health, social services, etc.

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Experimental Design #2 Difficult to design rigorous experiments

Very specific interventions Controlled conditions Randomized and/or carefully measured external factors

Need to be relatively large scale to detect small effects Equity and legal issues Can be complicated, expensive and time consuming Should not be undertaken without considering the benefits and

costs in terms of time and resources Do not apply experimentation to test all possible improvements to

programs but strategically apply experimentation to obtain answersto critical questions

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Recommendations forExperimental Programs

Feedback programsCommunity level interventionsAlternative marketing messages

Source: Michael Sullivan, “Using Experiments to Foster Innovation andUsing Experiments to Foster Innovation andImprove the Effectiveness of Energy Efficiency Programs.Improve the Effectiveness of Energy Efficiency Programs.””

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Feedback Programs Past research: feedback can significantly lower energy consumption

– ranging from 0% to 20% Causes of change in energy use are not well understood Results from these studies are suggestive but far from conclusive

Typically have been carried out as demonstrations rather thanexperiments

Do not operate long enough to measure persistence Potential drivers of behavior:

Price Technology and communication channel Household characteristics Message format and content

These factors undoubtedly interact A focused experimental effort is needed to find and test cost

effective approaches Could be the holy grail

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Feedback Type and Mechanisms

Source: Jennifer Robinson, EPRI

Energy displaydevice

Pricing displaydevice

Prepaid meters

Real-time webportal (TV,cell phone,etc.)

End-usemonitoringwith webportal (orstandalonedisplay, TV,cell, etc.)

End-usemonitoringand controlwith webportal (orstandalonedisplay, TV,cell, etc.)

Consumer readsmeter

Via mail(includingemailnotification toaccesswebpage)

Via email

Via web(consumermust go towebpage)

Web-basedhome energyaudit, withand withoutapplianceusageestimates(user inputsdata)

Web-basedhome energyaudit (dataperiodicallyretrieved fromutility)

Monthly EnergyReports

Quarterly EnergyReports

Targeted Tips

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Community Level Interventions Community level (e.g., schools and community organizations)

interventions designed to promote energy efficiency Very effective in promoting smoking cessation, reducing health risks

from sexually transmitted diseases and lowering incidence ofdriving under the influence (DUI)

Hundreds of millions of dollars spent on local governmentpartnerships in about 40 communities in California Wide range of approaches Difficult to determine what, if anything, is working and what isn’t

Framework for systematic experimentation is present but notutilized for studying effectiveness and experimenting with newideas

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Development of AlternativeMarketing Messages

Economics is only one of many messages that end users mightrespond to. Others include: National security, preserving the future, climate change, responsible

citizen, supporting community needs (for business) Messages:

One size does NOT fit all Effects of messaging are not stable over time

Experimental work to discover effective messages has to be ongoing Experimental designs for evaluating message impacts are well

developed and inexpensive to carry out Market segmentation is key to understanding the effectiveness of

messages

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Development of AlternativeTargeting Strategies

Receptiveness to energy efficiency offers varies within the market Development of effective methods for identifying “receptive”

targets may dramatically improve the efficiency of marketing Evidence suggests that program participants have a tendency to repeat,

and that the effects of program participation on likelihood ofparticipation can be cumulative

So far, efforts at targeting have concentrated on development ofmarket segmentation schemes that are predictive of receptivenessto programs The effectiveness of these schemes should be carefully evaluated using

experimental methods to determine how much targeting via existingsegmentation schemes improves performance

Continuing efforts should be made to improve on existing schemes anddiscard those that do not improve performance

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Experiments – How to select ? Where we have the most experience

CFLs

Where the demand savings may be largest Summer air conditioning behavior in hot places

Where the total energy savings may be greatest Vampires - plug loads

Where we can most readily generalize to other cases Appliance A, B or C

Source: Loren Lutzenhiser, “Behavioral Assumptions Underlying CaliforniaResidential Energy Efficiency Programs.”

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Experiments – What to vary ? Information, education, knowledge, experience

Form, content, delivery system, frequency, duration Incentives, inducements, costs, prices, subsidies

Amounts, timing, recipient, delivery system Point-of-sale

Signage, advertising, packaged with other items/services Mid-stream and upstream

Education, inducement, service provision, competition Controlling for/measuring multi-actor multi-level

change Household dynamics, Community effects, Culture change

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Other Work

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Paul Stern Paper by Paul Stern & colleagues - under journal

review Six lessons learned from behavior research for

designing effective carbon emissions reductionprograms:

1. Prioritize high impact actions2. Provide sufficient financial incentives3. Strongly market the program4. Provide credible information at the points of decision5. Keep it simple6. Provide quality assurance

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Consortium for Energy Efficiency Compiling behavioral insights and tools from the

social sciences, such as: Status quo bias Energy use / cost feedback Discounting the future / time inconsistency Self-efficacy Social norms External barriers/ constraints on choice Cognitive dissonance Goal setting

Work in progress - providing examples of behaviorchange programs in their database

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NYSERDA

Hired a behavior research expert as a technicalconsultant to energy efficiency programs in NY whoare interested in designing and implementingcontrolled field research experiments that incorporatebehavioral insights from the social sciences

Programs will implement the program design Impact evaluators of these programs will also evaluate

experimental pilots Hoping to do 5-7 Behavioral Research Program pilot

projects - depending on program interest and budget

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CARB - Climate Change Scoping PlanRevisited

Climate Change Scoping Plan (adopted December 2008) Behavior is implicitly or explicitly mentioned:

Price signals from cap & trade will influence consumer behavior Individual behavior will influence California’s effort to reduce GHG

emissions California’s statewide programs support positive changes in home and

business behavior Implementation of Plan places “personal action” and “public outreach

and education” at the forefront

http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/document/adopted_scoping_plan.pdf

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CARB - Behavioral Change Research FY 2008-2009 and FY 2008-2009 Annual Research Plans

Identify behavioral change research/knowledge gaps, including: What determines household consumption of energy, water, natural gas,

and transportation resources? How do choices upstream of households affect home energy efficiency? What determines household choices among available homes and

equipment? How can better systems be designed to inform consumers about their

best options for improving home energy efficiency and reducing theircarbon footprints?

What can be done to decouple energy consumption from perceptions(and misperceptions) of well being?

How can improved government links to energy users promote policygoals?

How does human behavior and decision-making interface withimplementation, outreach, and social marketing?

http://www.arb.ca.gov/research/apr/plan/fy08-09/plan08-9.pdfhttp://www.arb.ca.gov/research/apr/plan/fy09-10/plan09-10.pdf

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CARB – Board-Approved ResearchProjects Addressing Human Behavior

“Identifying Determinants of Very Low Energy Consumption RatesObserved in Some California Households” UC Davis How do low-use customers voluntarily achieve low electricity consumption? What motivates them? How can ARB support the replication of voluntary low consumption?

“A Field Experiment to Assess the Impact of Information Provision onHousehold Electricity Consumption” UCLA Experimental design to investigate the effectiveness of and barriers to

residential energy conservation interventions.

“Behavioral Strategies to Bridge the Gap Between Potential and ActualSavings in Commercial Buildings” UC Davis Identify behavioral, social, and organizational strategies that reduce energy use

and GHG emissions from California commercial buildings. Develop improved conceptual models of how energy and comfort are managed

in commercial buildings.

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CPUC

Behavior and Energy White Papers Long-term Energy Efficiency Strategic Plan Pilot programs as a possible strategy Draft EM&V Decision (March 9, 2010)

"We thus adopt a policy to estimate, measure and count savings fromcomparative usage programs .... on a pilot basis." [p. 40]

"We commit ... to crediting ex-post savings for behavior programs inthe 2010-2012 program cycle." [p. 41]

"We hereby allow that experimental design form the basis of energysavings attributed to behavior based programs." [p. 41]

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OPOWER PROGRAM OPOWER program: energy monitoring, reporting and tips

Tested for nearly two years in California and across the country. Currently implemented by 15 utilities nationwide, with 10 more

scheduled to deploy. Each deployment has reduced energy consumption by 1.5% to 3.5% � Behavior-based savings is cost-effective: $0.03/kWh to $0.05/kWh in

each deployment. � � Rigorously measured:

Experimental design allows for an enhanced level of rigor. All double-counting concerns can be addressed through careful

program design. � �Independently evaluated �Accepted as an efficiency resource in Massachusetts and Minnesota

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Results Predictable, Consistent andSustained Across All Geographies & Fuels

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Upcoming 2010 Conferences

2010 International Energy Program EvaluationConference - June 2010 - Paris - www.iepec.org

ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency inBuildings - August 2010 - Asilomar - www.aceee.org

Behavior, Energy and Climate Change (BECC)Conference - November 2010 - Sacramento -www.BECCconference.org

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Time for Questions