derek hum wayne simpson
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The Retirement Prospects of Immigrants: Getting Worse? Presentation to PMC Winnipeg Node Meeting September 29, 2009. Derek Hum Wayne Simpson. Canada’s Demographic Setting. Aging Population Structure Low Fertility Rates Slow Labour Force Growth. Canada relies on Immigrants. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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The Retirement Prospects of Immigrants: Getting Worse?
Presentation to PMC WinnipegNode Meeting September 29, 2009
Derek Hum
Wayne Simpson
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Canada’s Demographic Setting
Aging Population Structure Low Fertility Rates Slow Labour Force Growth
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Canada relies on Immigrants
Population Growth Labour Force Growth Productivity
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Public Pensions in Canada
Pay As You Go (Entitled/Workers ratio)
Success will depend upon:– Productivity– Labour Force Growth
Plus– Immigration Levels– Immigrant Economic Performance
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Pressures on Public Pensions
Increase in ratio of Entitled/Workers
Maintain Benefit Levels Maintain Stable Premiums Permit Flexible Retirement Options Permit Flexible Retirement Date
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CPP Benefits related to:
Individuals’ Work History Life time Earnings
Program applies to all Workers ---Native Born and Immigrants
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Economic Integration of Immigrants
Do immigrant wages and earnings converge to their Canadian native born counterparts, quickly and completely?
If so, retirement prospects of immigrant are similar to those of other Canadians?
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Two Aspects of Convergence
Entry Effect (Typically Negative)
Assimilation Effect (Historically Positive)
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Negative entry effect
Immigrants suffer initial disadvantage upon entry to Canada (language, adjustment difficulties, lack of knowledge about labour markets, human capital and social network deficiencies
Immigrants often assumed to possess superior motivation and industry
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Assimilation effect (Convergence)
over time, difficulties are overcome, and with superiour motivation and effort, typically “catch up” to native born. (convergence)
In the past, immigrants typically became more “successful” than native born vis a vis earnings
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Immigrant Integration (Past)
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Earn
ing
s
20 30 40 50 60 70 Age(Yrs Since Migration + 20)
Figure 1: Immigrant Integration
native born
immigrant
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Immigrant Integration (Present)
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Earn
ing
s
20 30 40 50 60 70 Age(Yrs Since Migration + 20)
Figure 1: Immigrant Integration
native born
immigrant
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Recent Experience of Immigrants
Immigrant Earnings have not converged as quickly
Some estimates indicate growing negative entry effect
Some estimates suggest immigrants will never catch up in their lifetime
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Summarizing: Past and Present
Past cohorts experienced small negative entry effects, fast assimilation and rapid convergence (even overtaking native born economic performance)
Present cohorts face: large (and growing) negative entry effects, slow and slowing assimilation, and
Many immigrants will not experience convergence over their working lifetime.
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Why Integration has slowed
1/3 decline attributed to source region Declining returns to foreign experience/
schooling for immigrants from “non-traditional” source countries more important
Unemployment effect, especially for immigrants
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Convergence and Retirement
Question: Will immigrants achieve earning patterns similar to comparable native born workers?
If so, retirement prospects of immigrants will be similar to native born Canadians.
If not, immigrants will experience lower pensions, higher poverty, lower well being.
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Immigrant Earnings Profiles
Typically measured using Census PUMFs, 1981-2001
Cross-sectional PUMFs “blended” to produce “quasi-panel” estimates of immigrant and native born earnings over time
Correct for “across cohort” bias in cross-sectional comparisons to obtain (1) “Entry effect/gap” and (2) “Within cohort” estimates of 5-year growth rates in earnings
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Quasi-Panel Estimates of Immigrant Earnings Profiles (Entry and Growth)
Ear
nin
gs
20 30 40 50 60 70
Age
NB
C2
C1
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Quasi-Panel Estimates of Immigrant Earnings Profiles (Entry and Growth)
Correct for “cohort bias” arising from “declining cohort quality” of immigrants over time (rising entry effects)
Choose an appropriate native born comparison/control group that “looks like” the foreign born group– 20% Random sample of nb? (Baker&Benjamin,
1994; Grant, 1999; Frenette&Morissette, 2003)
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Comparison/control groupof native born:
20% Random sample of nb? Match recent immigrants to nb labour market
entrants (young adults) (Green&Worswick, 2003; Frenette&Morissette, 2003)
Statistical match of the fb sample with the nb sample (nearest neighbour or kernel matching): matching estimator is mean earnings difference between matched samples
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Quasi-Panel Estimates of FB Earnings Profiles with Random and Matched NB Samples (B&B Specification)
Immigrant Integration Profiles
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25
Years Since Migration
Gap
with
NB
IM7680
IM8185
IM8690
IM9195
IM7680M
IM8185M
IM8690M
IM9195M
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Summary of Results:
Similar results for B&B and F&M specifications
Entry effects are larger with matched NB sample but pattern otherwise similar to random NB sample
Within-cohort growth of earnings substantial and may imply eventual parity/integration
Projections of the immigrant integration profile are unreliable
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Implications for Pensionable Earnings or the “Pension Gap”
What are the implications of the gap between fb and nb earnings for private pensions, CPP/QPP?
What “pot of money” at entry would represent the gap faced by an immigrant cohort during a work career of 25 years?
Can calculate for earlier cohorts, e.g. 76-80, and estimate for later cohorts based on “eyeball” estimates of integration profiles
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Table 1. Estimated Pension Gapsas Percentage of Native Born
Discount rate IM7680 IM8185 IM8690 IM9195 5.0% 11.4% 17.5% 21.0% 21.7% OLS estimates
(random fb sample) 10.0% 13.1% 20.4% 23.5% 26.3% 5.0% 16.7% 26.4% 26.7% 27.9% Matched estimates
(matched fb sample) 10.0% 17.4% 29.2% 29.3% 32.6%
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The Pension Gap in the Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics(work in progress)
SLID 2002 Public File provides tax record information for RPP contributions and private pension income by immigration status, age, and sex
Is there a difference in RPP contributions for fb and nb men who are not retired?
Is there a difference in private pension income for fb and nb men who have retired (older immigrant cohorts)?
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Conclusions
Immigrants to Canada continue to do worse in terms of entry earnings relative to nb
Gap in pension incomes between fb and nb men will likely rise
SLID analysis of pension contributions and incomes (to come)