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TRANSCRIPT
Demographic Profile of
Central Texas
Chris Schreck,
Director of Regional Planning & Services,
Capital Area Council of Governments
November 8, 2018
Community Advancement Network
Expanding Housing Opportunities
The 5-County
Austin MSA
Population Growth in the Austin-RR MSA
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
1,716,289 1,780,610 1,834,566 1,883,528 1,942,255 2,000,784 2,060,558 2,115,827
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Since 2010, the Austin-RR MSA has grown by 399,538 people.
For reference:
• The entire population of the Austin MSA in 1970 was 398,000.
• The current population of the Tallahassee, FL Metro Area is 382,627.
• The current population of the city of Minneapolis is 422,326.
Population Growth in the Austin-RR MSA
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
How is population distributed throughout the region?
84,761 42,338
214,485
1,226,698
547,545
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Bastrop Caldwell Hays Travis Williamson
Population by MSA County (2017)
Population Growth in the Austin-RR MSA
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Share of Annual Population Growth in the Austin-RR MSA
City of Austin Travis County Williamson Hays Bastrop Caldwell
Population Growth in the Austin-RR MSA
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
What’s driving that population growth ?
Natural Increase121,257
Domestic Migration 224,351
International Migration
49,311
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Components of Population Change in the Austin-RR MSA (2010-2017)
In-Migration to the Austin-RR MSA (15-16)Where are all these people coming from?
Source: IRS SOI Migration Data
In-Migration to the Austin-RR MSA (15-16)Where are all these people coming from?
Source: IRS SOI Migration Data
In-Migration to the Austin-RR MSA (15-16)
• Most common origin counties for folks moving to the Austin-
RR MSA:
Origin County Origin State Total In-Migration (15-16)
Harris County TX 3,292
Bexar County TX 2,251
Miami-Dade County FL 2,217
Los Angeles County CA 1,791
Dallas County TX 1,779
Broward County FL 1,278
Cook County IL 1,232
Orange County CA 1,108
Tarrant County TX 1,036
Source: IRS SOI Migration Data
Change in Population by Age
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
Under 15 15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74 75 and over
Change in Austin-RR MSA Population by Age Cohort (2010-2017)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Under 15 15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74 75 and over
Percentage Change in Austin-RR MSA Population by Age Cohort (2010-2017)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
The Economy…
Source: EMSI
$88,430,920,438
$140,170,511,961
$-
$20,000,000,000
$40,000,000,000
$60,000,000,000
$80,000,000,000
$100,000,000,000
$120,000,000,000
$140,000,000,000
$160,000,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Austin -RR MSA Gross Regional Product
The Texas Miracle…
Source: EMSI
Austin,58.5%
Dallas, 43.4%
Houston, 30.0%
San Antonio,46.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Percentage Change in Gross Regional Product by Texas Metro
Austin Dallas Houston San Antonio
Employment Growth
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
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Year Over Year Percentage Change in Employment in the Austin-RR MSA
I started talking about slowing
job growth here… which
immediately prompted 6
straight months of accelerating
job growth.
Unemployment
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
0.0
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Unemployment Rate in the Austin-RR MSA
Rate of employment growth
begins slowing right about
here.
High Growth Occupations
Source: EMSI, MIT Living Wage Calculator
Occupation
2010 - 2017
Employment
Change
Median Hourly
EarningsTypical Entry Level Education
Combined Food Preparation and Serving
Workers, Including Fast Food12,151 $10.07 No formal educational credential
Sales Representatives, Services, All Other 8,205 $22.12 High school diploma or equivalent
Customer Service Representatives 8,187 $15.55 High school diploma or equivalent
Software Developers, Applications 7,099 $51.29 Bachelor's degree
Office Clerks, General 6,069 $16.73 High school diploma or equivalent
Retail Salespersons 5,811 $11.56 No formal educational credential
Secretaries and Administrative Assistants,
Except Legal, Medical, and Executive5,725 $16.89 High school diploma or equivalent
Waiters and Waitresses 5,476 $9.73 No formal educational credential
General and Operations Managers 4,931 $50.37 Bachelor's degree
Personal Care Aides 4,783 $9.49 High school diploma or equivalent
Which occupations have grown the most in the Austin-RR MSA since 2010?
In Travis County, the current living wage for a single adult is $11.87. For an adult with one child, it is $24.62.
So, What Does All This Mean for Housing?
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Zillow
Since 2000, home values in Travis County have grown nearly twice as fast as incomes
104.4%
56.7%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Change in Home Values and Median Household Incomes in Travis County
Zillow Home Value Index Median HH Inc
Housing in the Austin-RR MSA
Source: National Low Income Housing Coalition
What wage rate do you need to make in order to afford a rental unit in the Austin-RR MSA?
Rental TypeWage Required
(Texas)
Wage Required
(Austin-RR MSA)
Zero Bedroom $13.52$16.54
($34,400/yr)
One Bedroom $15.62$19.67
($40,900/yr)
Two Bedroom $19.32$24.06
($50,000/yr)
Three Bedroom $26.10$32.29
($67,200/yr)
Four Bedroom $32.31$38.81
($80,700/yr)
Housing in the Austin-RR MSA
If you make minimum wage, how many hours per week must you work to afford a rental unit in
the Austin-RR MSA?
Rental TypeHours Required
(Texas)
Hours Required
(Austin-RR MSA)
Zero Bedroom 75 91
One Bedroom 86 109
Two Bedroom 107 133
Three Bedroom 144 178
Four Bedroom 178 214
For reference, there are 168 total hours in a week.
Source: National Low Income Housing Coalition
Housing and Transportation
Most households face a difficult trade-off with respect to housing and transportation
costs…
• Region-wide, the typical household in the Austin-RR MSA spends 50% of their
income on combined housing and transportation costs.
• The average monthly housing cost for households is $1,502. The average monthly
transportation cost for households is $1,123.
• For a moderate-income household ($50,750 per year), average housing and
transportation costs amount to 58% of monthly income.
Source: Center for Neighborhood Technology
Thanks!Any questions?
Chris SchreckDirector of Regional Planning and Services
Capital Area Council of Governments
512-916-6183