demographic picture of turkey: what lies ahead? · 2015-05-21 · what lies ahead? a.banu...
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Demographic Picture of Turkey: What lies ahead?
A.Banu Ergöçmen, Prof.Dr.
Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies
Panel Discussion on the Demography of Turkey and other Muslim Countries
11 May 2015, Ankara
Demographic Transition, Turkey
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
19
35
-40
19
40
-45
19
45
-50
19
50
-55
19
55
-60
19
60
-65
19
65
-70
19
70
-75
19
75
-80
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80
-85
19
85
-90
19
90
-95
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95
-00
20
00
-05
20
05
-10
20
10
-15
20
15
-20
20
20
-25
20
25
-30
20
30
-35
pe
r 1
,00
0 p
op
ula
tio
n
CBR CDR
4,33
4,04
3,02
2,65 2,61
2,23 2,16 2,26
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
TFS 1978 TPHS 1983 TPHS 1988 TDHS 1993 TDHS 1998 TDHS 2003 TDHS 2008 TDHS 2013
Total Fertility Rate
1.89
2.48
1.93
2.08
3.41
TURKEY 2.26 Urban: 2.16
Rural: 2.73
Total Fertility Rate : Regions
North
West East
South
Central
Variations in TFRs: Regions 1993-2013
5
Total Fertility Rate by Women’s Education
3,76
2,75
2,45
1,66
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
No education/primary
incomplete
Primary school Secondary school High school and higher
Age Specific Fertility Rates
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49
TFS 1978 TPHS 1988 TDHS 1993 TDHS 1998
TDHS 2003 TDHS 2008 TDHS 2013
Median Age at Marriage and Birth (ages 25-49)
19,0 19,5 20,0 20,8 21,0 20,8 21,3 21,8 22,3 22,9
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
TDHS 1993 TDHS 1998 TDHS 2003 TDHS 2008 TDHS 2013
Age at first marriage Age at first birth
Among women:
7 % of 15-19 year olds, 73 % of 15-49 year olds and 97 %of 45-49 have been married.
Fertility Preferences, 2003-2013
TNSA-
2013
TNSA-
2003
TNSA-
2008
TNSA-
2013
Have another soon 9,9
Have another later 13,6
Have another, undecided when 0,9
Undecided 3,1
Want no more 63,4
Sterilized 5,7
Declared infecund 3,1
Missing 0,3
TDHS-2003 Have another
soon 13,7
Have another later
18,1
Have another,
undecided when 1,4
Undecided 3,4
Want no more 47,4
Sterilized 9,4
Declared infecund 6,5
Missing 0,1
TDHS-2013
Changes in Early Age Mortality Rates, 1993-2013
53
9
61
43
10
52
29
9
37
18
6
24
13
2
15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Infant mortality rate Child mortality rate Under five mortality rate
TDHS 1993 TDHS 1998 TDHS 2003 TDHS 2008 TDHS 2013
Changes in Life Expectancy 2014-2050
77,0 77,9
83
74,8 75,8
80,5 79,3
80,2
85,4
68,0
70,0
72,0
74,0
76,0
78,0
80,0
82,0
84,0
86,0
88,0
2014 TURKSTAT 2023 TURKSTAT 2050 UN
Total Males Females
Population Pyramid of Turkey, 2014-2050 (Shadow: 2014, Line: 2050)
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Source: TURKSTAT
Female Male
6 4 2 0 2 4 6
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Percent
Population by major age groups
Trends of major age groups Population 65+
13
Median age for 2014 is 30.7 years
65+ Population by sex, 2014-2050
65+
Total pop Total Male Female
2014 77 696 6 193 2 699 3 494
2023 84 247 8 624 3 831 4 793
2050 93 476 19 485 8 814 10 670
(thousand)
Dependency ratios
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Population 93 475 570
Population growth rate(%) 0.2
Median age 40.2
Population by age groups (%) <15 15-64 65+
15.7 63.4 20.8
Total fertility rate 1.8
Expectation of life Total Male Female
83.0 80.5 85.4
Dependency ratios (%) Total Child Elderly
57.6 24.8 32.9
Key demographic indicators, 2050
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Demographic snapshots...
Population, almost at the end of its first demographic transition, stands at a total size of more than 77 million
Population growth rate has slowed down (1.33 %)
People are living longer (e0 77)
Half of the population is below age 30.7; Turkey has a young population by median age, largely due to past fertility rates
Turkey still has a young age structure
... Demographic snapshots
Fertility is above the replacement level (>2.1)
Fertility varies by region, type of place of residence, education and wealth quantile.
Transition has not been uniform throughout the country, regional disparities continue.
Share of 65+ aged population is 8 percent.
Current trends in major demographic parameters show that the country is about to reach or close to the final stage of its first demographic transition, however, process has not been completed yet.
Future prospects
The current young population group, growing share of the economically productive age population and the population which is expected to become much older toward the final stage of transition are the facts that require a holistic approach and a combination of policies.
Future population growth will take place in the urban areas.
Population ageing will become more critical
Migration is expected to remain high during the 21st century.
To conclude…
It is the tendency of the young cohorts that will determine the course of demographic
change in Turkey in the approaching decades.
Therefore, this young population structure of Turkey presents potential challenges in
every aspect of the country.
References • TFS 1978: Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies (1980). Turkish Fertility Survey 1978. First Report, Volume I:
Methodology and Findings, Hacettepe University, Institute of Population Studies, Ankara.
• TPHS 1983: Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies (1987) 1983 Turkish Population and Health Survey, Hacettepe
University, Institute of Population Studies, Ankara.
• TPHS 1988 Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies (1989) 1988 Turkish Population and Health Survey, Hacettepe
University Institute of Population Studies, Ankara.
• TDHS 1993 Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies (1994). Turkey Demographic and Health Survey 1993.
Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies, Ministry of Health Directorate of Morther and Child Health, Demographic and
Health Surveys, Macro International Int.
• TDHS 1998 Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies (1999). Turkey Demographic and Health Survey 1998.
Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies, Macro International Inc., Ministry of Health Directorate of Mother and Child
Health, United Nations Population Fund, United States Agency for International Development.
• TDHS 2003 Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies (2005). Turkey Demographic and Health Survey 2003.
Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies, Ministry of Health Directorate of Mother and Child Health, T.R Prime Ministry
State Organization of Planning, European Union.
• TDHS 2008 Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies (2009). Turkey Demographic and Health Survey 2008.
Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies, Ministry of Health Directorate of Mother and Child Health and Family Planning,
State Planning Organization.
• TDHS 2013 Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies (2014). Turkey Demographic and Health Survey 2013.
Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies, Ministry of Development.
• TURKSTAT (2015) Nüfus Projeksiyonları, Demografik Göstergeler (Population projections, demographic indicators),
http://tuik.gov.tr/PreIstatistikTablo.do?istab_id=1636 last accessed: 21 May 2015
• TURKSTAT (2015) Nüfus Projeksiyonları, Yaş ve Cinsiyete Göre Nüfus (Population projections, population by age and sex),
http://tuik.gov.tr/PreIstatistikTablo.do?istab_id=1633 last accessed: 21 May 2015
• TURKSTAT (2015) Adrese Dayalı Nüfus Kayıt Sistemi Sonuçları (Results of the Address Bases Population Registration System)
http://tuikapp.tuik.gov.tr/adnksdagitapp/adnks.zul last accessed: 21 May 2015
• TURKSTAT (2015) Adrese Dayalı Nüfus Kayıt Sistemi Sonuçları, Yıllara, Yaş Grubu ve Cinsiyete Göre Nüfus, Genel Nüfus
Sayımları, ADNKS (Results of the Address Bases Population Registration System, population by year, age groups and sex,
Population Censuses and ABPRS) http://tuik.gov.tr/PreIstatistikTablo.do?istab_id=1588 last accessed: 21 May 2015
• UN (2015) World Population Prospects, 2015, Excel Tables, Mortality Data. http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/mortality.htm last
accessed: 21 May 2015