demographic dip: an excuse or an imposing reality?
DESCRIPTION
Argentum 2016 Senior Living Executive Conference concurrent session Original session date: Tuesday, May 10, 2016, 3:15 - 4:30 PM Speakers: John Spooner, Co-Chief Executive Officer, Greystone Communities Irving Stackpole, President, Stackpole and AssociatesTRANSCRIPT
Demographic Dip: Excuse or Imposing Reality? Irving Stackpole & John Spooner
How bad is it??
Retooling for the Next Generation John Spooner | Co-Chief Executive Officer
Life Span
25 68 Age
Vit
ality
80 92
100%
1965 2015 2050
Morbidity Compression: Live Long, Die Fast
25 68 Age
Vit
ality
80 92
100%
Health Span: Extending Wellness in Aging
25 68 Age
Vit
ality
80 92
100%
U. S. Senior Population: 2010-2050
Total 65+ 75-84 85+
2010 296,000,000 39,561,000 7,104,000 (2.40%) 5,180,000 (1.75%)
2020 325,600,000 52,857,000 9,768,000 (3.00%) 6,512,000 (2.00%)
2030 358,200,000 68,345,000 15,223,500 (4.25%) 9,850,500 (2.75%)
2040 393,900,000 74,984,000 17,725,500 (4.50%) 13,786,500 (3.50%)
2050 438,000,000 81,100,000 17,520,000 (4.00%) 17,520,000 (4.00%)
Pew Research Center: U.S. Population Project
2005-2050
Beyond the Picket Fence…
A NEW Senior is Emerging
TOPIC
CCRC
Market
Life Span/ Health Span
Attitude
Health
Employees
RECENT PAST NOW
• Housing • Services • Health Care
“Oh, I Didn’t Think I Would Like It, But I Loved It!”
FUTURE
Institutional Image Hang-Over
Consumer Acceptance Increasing
• Housing • Hospitality • Wellness
Public Health Terminology
Longevity and Morbidity Compression
Entitlement Confusion
Directed Advice
Self-Directed
Job/Career Career
Demographics Double
Health Span: Focus on How Long One Lives Well
Consumer Activist
Engaged Self-Care
Profession
TOPIC RECENT PAST NOW FUTURE
Hospitality
Who Pays?
Average Age
ILU/RLU
AL
SNF
MS
High Resident Satisfaction was Enough
• Ritz
• Four Seasons
• Disney
Medicare/Insurance Co-Pay/Deductible
• ILU: 78-85 • ALU: 80+ • HC: 80+
Convergence in Age
• Granite • Larger Apartments
• “Amenity Ladder” • Open Plan
AL and ILU Converge • Expand AL • Highly Competitive
HC and AL Converge • Downsize Nursing • Shift to Rehab
• Growing Most Recent Addition to Levels of Living
• Training
• Systemized Expectations
• Cross-Category Comparison
• Fluid Expectations
High Deductible
Longevity Blurs, Morbidity Defines
• Double Masters • Super Fridge • Casual Living
• Specialty AL • Efee AL • Deregulation
• Specialty HC • Rehab Spa
• Growth Market into the Future
TOPIC RECENT PAST NOW FUTURE
CONTRACT TERMS
Terminology
• “Continuum”
• “Levels of Care”
• CCRC
• Independent
• Assisted • Memory Care • Nursing Care
• CCRC • Residential
• Levels of Living • Levels of Service
Transfers
Changes in Terms Due
to Changing Policy/Mark
ets
LTC Risk Allocatio
n
Contracts
• Defined • Sponsor Discretion • Cooperation Expected
Same
• Specifically Defined
• Sponsor Discretion
• Specific Acknowledgement by Resident/Advisors
• Consequences for Non-Cooperation
• Not Mentioned • Right to Amend
Same
• Specific Mention of Unknown Future Changes in Health Care Delivery May Require Change
• Types A, B, C • Closed Insurance Pool
• Modified
• Defined
• Resident Cost Sharing
• Closed Insurance Pool with High Deductibles
• Dynamic
• Control Cost with Full Recapture
• Cross-Level Benefit Use
• High Refund • Traditional
3-5 Alternates to Broaden Market
• Consumer Financial Profile
• Shift to “Asset Status”
….…So,
TOPIC RECENT PAST NOW FUTURE
• NFP Status • “Green” • Marijuana Use • Assisted Suicide • Digital Privacy
• Social Accountability • Silver Tsunami
• ACO’s
• Property Tax Exemption
• Succession Planning
What’s Hot?
(The Cleaver’s) 48% of WWII Generation
(Modern Family) 37% of Baby Boomers Generation
(Kardashians) 25% of Millennium Generation
Traditional Family
Composition (U.S. Census
2013 Affluent Senior
Households)
The New Language of Senior Living
1. “Care” is being excised
2. Evolving senior living language
− Health span
− Age compression
− Flex spending
− Long-term support and services
− Levels of Living
− Levels of Service
− Support days
− Connected-care technology
− Service Excellence
− Apartment-for-life
Demographic Dip: Gravity is Unavoidable Irving Stackpole
How bad is it??
• Numbers
• Negativity
• Money
Realities
Occupancies are poor because • The age qualified markets are declining
• Increased options / choices
• Negative perception
• The economy
• The role of “Intermediaries”
The need for change is URGENT
Currently
~83%
Currently ~ 87%
Stackpole & Associates, Inc. 22
2016
Born 1930
85 yoa
2020
Born 1934
85 yoa
Negativity?
Sector NOT thought of as the valuable
resource it is …
They are seen as prisons – awful places
– The “F” word
– “Don’t want to put / place mom in a nursing
home.”
– “I’d rather be dead.”
Deep metaphor of negativity
Stackpole & Associates, Inc. 23
Responding to a declining market
Defend, protect & fortify
• Manage to Loyalty
Increase Productivity / Efficiency
Innovate
Differentiate
Stackpole &
Associates, Inc.
25
Stackpole & Associates, Inc. 26
Efficiency
Technical, Productive, Allocative
– Technical Maximum improvement from resources
– Productive Best health outcome for given costs or
reduction in cost for the same outcome
– Allocative Best outcomes for society
Facts of Life
The age qualified market is shrinking
Intense cultural negativity
Continued pressure on payments
Continued pressure on utilization
Where is the demand?
Demand for Arthroplasty
209 253
384
572 450 663
1520
3481
40.8 47.8
67.6 96.7 38.3 55.3 121
268
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Nu
mb
er o
f p
ati
ents
(x 1
,00
0)
Year
Primary total hip
arthroplasty
Primary total knee
arthroplasty
Revision total hip
arthroplasty
Revision total knee
arthroplasty
29
We are Here
Demand for ARD Care
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Medicare/Medicaid Costs per year (billions of dollars)
Inflection Point
We are Here
QUESTIONS???