democracy corps 2014 midterm analysis for the wednesday group

8/10/2019 Democracy Corps 2014 Midterm Analysis for The Wednesday Group

1/27

Wednesday Group PresentationOctober 29, 2014


2/27

Voters pessimistic about direction of country

33

36

2926

3328

16 1519

29

34 33 323632

39394042

3228 28

17

3027

2627

585659

65

5861

75

76 6965

59 59 605862555555

52

59

64 65

76

62

6569

64

Right Direction Wrong Track

2010

Election2012

Election

2

2012 2014

Generally speaking, do you think that things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things

have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?

*Note: From Democracy Corps national surveys conducted in the past 4 years..


3/27

23 15 1030 31

42 38

20

55 52

46 46

1027 28

54 56

2039 40

Strongly approve Approve Strongly disapprove Disapprove

Likely voters

3

Unmarried

womenIndependents RAESeniors

Obama approval modest among key groups

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

Barack Obama

-12 -18 -- +16 +12

*Note: National Survey of 950 2012 voters including 698 likely 2014 voters nationwide was conducted from October 16-21, 2014


4/27

None in DC popular

49

53

56

51 51

54

51 51

48

5051

50 5051 52

50

5255

53

54 5455

51 5149

5049

46

4547

4948

46

47 46 45

43

46

46 46 4647 47

45

48 4949

50 50

48 4846 47 46 45

43

47 4849

45 46

4645

44

42 4243

41

43

45

4343

45

4344

45

4541

43 42

4040

39

41

44

46

50

46

46 45

44

42

3939

4039

41

43

40

3941

39 3941

42

39 42

4039

38

3537

11/2/2010 3/20/2011 6/21/2011 11/20/2011 5/1/2012 8/27/2012 10/21/2012 1/14/2013 10/8/2013 10/22/2014

Barack Obama Democratic Party Republican Party Republican Congress

Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with 100 meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE

feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly warm or cold.

*Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted in the past 4 years.

Data represents MEAN ratings.4

2010

Election

2012

Election2012 2014


5/27

3018 12 10 14

4439

32 27 29

37 33 36 40 37

44 46 48 5244

Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25)

Barack

Obama

5

Mean: 47.3

Net: 0

Mean: 44.7

Net: -7

Mean: 36.8

Net: -25

Mean: 41.1

Net: -16

Republican

Congress

Democratic

Party

Republican

Party

GOP brand more negative

Tea Party

Mean: 39.3

Net: -15

Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM,

FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold.

*Note: National Survey of 950 2012 voters including 698 likely 2014 voters nationwide was conducted from October 16-21, 2014


6/27

55

41

37

34

27

26

17

14

12

11

Their position on the economy, creating jobs, andimproving wages

Their position on women and women's issues

Their position on Medicare and Social Security

Their position on the new health care law

Their position on foreign policy and ISIS

Their position on abortion and gay marriage

Their position on immigration

Their position on spending and deficits

Because of their political party

Because they support or oppose President Obama

6

Now I am going to read you a list of reasons people vote for one candidate over another. After I read this

list, tell me which THREE are the most important when deciding who to vote for in the election for U.S.Senate.

Voting for Democrats because of economy, but also

because of position on womens issues

Voting for the Democrat

*Note: Senate Battleground survey conducted Sept. 20-24, 2014 among 1,000 likely 2014 voters


7/27

54

40

38

37

31

23

19

14

9

7











7



Among voting for Republican, economy top, but foreign

policy and the health care law top of second tier

Voting for Republican



8/27

50

40

36

33

29

26

21

16

11

9











8



But for unmarried women, it is economy, new health care

law, and womens issues

Unmarried women



9/27

53

37

31

30

27

25

24

19

11

11











9



For Rising American Electorate, it is economy and ACA

Rising American Electorate



10/27

56

36

31

30

24

21

20

19

16

12











10



Health care law second most important reason to vote

among minority voters

Minority



11/27

11

18

65

78

Single payer Big government

11

Please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the

SECOND statement comes closer to your own view,even if neither is exactly right.

One in five of ACA opponents opposed because not a government

run program: only 42 percent opposed because big government

+60

I'm opposed because it's a big governmentsolution that we cannot afford.

I'm opposed because you still have to buy private

insurance and Id prefer a single-payer,

government-run system like Canada.

Among those opposed to ACA

Unsure

4%

Support

ACA

42%

Oppose

- prefer

single

payer

10%

Oppose

- big

gov't

42%

Do you support or oppose the health care reform

law that passed in 2010, also known as theAffordable Care Act or Obamacare?



12/27

52

74

49

34

26

8 6

38

10 11

34

15 13

45

56

Support Opp:singlepayer

Oppose:big gov't


Oppose:big gov't


Oppose:big gov't


Oppose:big gov't


Oppose:big gov't

12

Do you support or oppose the health care reform law that passed in 2010, also known as the Affordable Care Act or Obamacare?

ACA support by groups

Minority Youth SeniorsWhite non-

college

Unmarried

women

I'm opposed because you still have to buy private insurance and Id prefer a single-payer,

government-run system like Canada.

I'm opposed because it's a big government solution that we cannot afford.

I support the Affordable Care Act or Obamacare



13/27

58 56 56 63 64

3236 35

2630

Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican

Democrat Republican

I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for Congress in 2014, if the election for U.S. Congress were

held today, would you be voting for

the Democratic candidate or Republican (HOUSE INCUMBENT)?

+20 +37

October 2013

13

April 2014

Unmarried women moving to strong vote

June 2013

+26

Unmarried women

*Note: Based on House battleground surveys conducted over the past 2 years. Incumbent names were inserted with party identification.

Generic challengers were inserted as The Democratic Candidate.

December 2013

+21 +34

October 2014


14/27


15/27

29

39 41

56

69 71

Likelyvoters

RAE Unmwom

In your shoes narrative stronger than Republican narrative

and that is a change in battleground

15

President Obama has failed on

the economy. The middle class

is struggling with declining

paychecks, high unemployment,

and the rising costs of

healthcare, college, and even atank of gas. Bigger government,

higher spending, and never

ending deficits are not the

answer. We need to repeal

Obamacare, cut regulations, and

lower taxes. We need to build

the Keystone Pipeline and useour energy to create jobs and

lower gas prices. We can bring

back opportunity, balance the

budget, and spark an economic

recovery if we get big

government out of the way.

People are drowning because

jobs don't pay enough to live on.

We need leaders who can live a

day of our lives and make

change for us, not for the

richest who show up with thebig money. We must help

people here with affordable

college, job training, and

childcare. We must raise the

minimum wage and make sure

women get equal pay so

working women and familiescan keep up with the cost of

living. We need an economy

here that works for working

people and the middle class

again, not just those with the

big money.

3022 24

5346 45

Likelyvoters

RAE Unmwom

Now I am going to read you some things a Democrat/Republican is saying about the economy and what needs to be

done to make things better. Please tell me whether you find it a very convincing, somewhat convincing, a littleconvincing, or a not at all convincing statement about the economy and how to make it better.



16/27

Democratic message has bigger effect on vote than

Republican

September

July



17/27

454847 46

Democrat Republican Democrat Republican

Democrat Republican

+2 +2

Now let me ask you again, thinking about the election for Senate next year, if the election for U.S. Senate

were held today, would you be voting for -- (Democratic candidate) or (Republican candidate)?

Competing narratives and agenda shifts vote margin by 4

points to Democrats

17

Initial Vote After policies and messages



18/27

47

42

40

70

74

62

54

49

49

79

84

73

Working women and mens agenda, now with secret

money, helps Democratic candidates

18

Now I am going to read you some things being proposed by Democratsas part of their plan to deal with the economy. After

each item, please tell me whether you would be more or less likely to support a candidate who proposed that policy.

Unmarried

women

Finally recognize that working mothers need help by protecting

pregnant workers and new mothersfrom being fired or

demoted, making sure they have paid sick days and access to

affordable childcare

Raise the minimum wage to ten dollars an hour and expand

access to scholarships and affordable college so working

women and men can continue their education and train for

better jobs with higher wages.

Pass a Constitutional amendment to prevent wealthy special

interests and big corporations from spending unlimited

amounts of secret money to buy elections, so we can take the

power away from a few billionaires and give the power to

regular citizens.

MUCH MORE Total



19/27

36

35

30

29

61

62

51

57

Very serious doubts

Wealthy special interests, equal pay attacks provoke

strong doubts on Ernst

19

More and more women are breadwinners for their families, but women make just

77 cents for every dollar men make. Joni Ernst is opposed to requiring equal pay for

women who do the same job as a man. And she would allow insurance companies

to charge women higher premiums than men and force women to pay for

preventive care like mammograms.

Joni Ernst is a Tea Party extremist who won't represent Iowa's views. She has said

she would support efforts to impeach the president, believes that states can ignore

federal laws and has spoken at length about long debunked conspiracy theories.

Joni Ernst supports the Supreme Court's decision to allow wealthy special interests

and big corporations spend unlimited amounts of secret money to buy elections,

taking the power away from regular citizens and putting it in the hands of just a few

billionaires. So, Joni Ernst made sure CEOs paid no higher taxes and that their

loopholes are protected, while working men and women struggle.

Joni Ernst puts special interests over Iowa's interests. She signed a pledge to special

interest groups to protect tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas.

Now I'm going to read you some things that Republicans like Joni Ernst in Washington and in your state are trying to do.

These could decide whether you vote in November. Please tell me whether it raises very serious doubts, serious doubts,minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about Joni Ernst when you are thinking of voting in November.



20/27

29

24

29

53

60

57

Very serious doubts

Democrat Secret Money message more powerful than

core GOP critique on Democrats

20

Democrats in Congress are rubber stamps for Obama's failed policies that

have killed jobs, hurt middle class families and added trillions to the national

debt. They raised taxes to pay for more government programs and spending,

like Obama's failed trillion-dollar stimulus plan and Obamacare, which has

caused millions of Americans to have their insurance cancelled or to pay

higher costs.

Now I'm going to read you a statement about the (Democrats/Republicans) in Congress. This could decide whether

you vote in November. Please tell me whether it raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no realdoubts in your own mind about the (Democrats/Republicans) when you are thinking of voting in November.

(HALF SAMPLE: SECRET MONEY) The Republicans in Congress support the

Supreme Court's decision to allow wealthy special interests, CEOs and big

corporations to spend unlimited amounts of secret money to buy elections,

taking the power away from regular citizens and putting it in the hands of just

a few billionaires. In return, Republicans in Congress make sure these CEOspay no higher taxes and that their loopholes are protected, while working

men and women struggle.

(HALF SAMPLE: MONEY OUTSOURCING) The Republicans in Congress

supported unfair trade deals with countries like China that have resulted in

the loss of hundreds of thousands of American jobs and protected tax breaks

for companies that send American jobs overseas. Meanwhile, they've

pocketed millions of dollars from the CEOs, PACs, and lobbyists of the

corporations that outsourced our jobs.



21/27

28

34 35

56 58

68Very serious doubts

21

(MONEY OUTSOURCING)

The Republicans in

Congress supported unfair

trade deals with countries

like China that have

resulted in the loss of

hundreds of thousands of

American jobs and

protected tax breaks for

companies that send

American jobs overseas.

Meanwhile, they've

pocketed millions ofdollars from the CEOs,

PACs, and lobbyists of the

corporations that

outsourced our jobs.

(SECRET MONEY) The

Republicans in Congress

support the Supreme

Court's decision to allow

wealthy special interests,

CEOs and big corporations

to spend unlimited amounts

of secret money to buy

elections, taking the power

away from regular citizens

and putting it in the hands

of just a few billionaires. In

return, Republicans inCongress make sure these

CEOs pay no higher taxes

and that their loopholes are

protected, while working

men and women struggle. Likely

VotersRAE

2527 29

6064 65

Very serious doubts

Secret Money critique particularly powerful with

congressional swing voters, Rising American Electorate

Now I'm going to read you a statement about the Republicans in Congress. This could decide whether you vote in

November. Please tell me whether it raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts inyour own mind about the Republicans when you are thinking of voting in November.

Und/

Lean

Likely

VotersRAE

Und/

Lean



22/27

Louisiana


23/27

19

15

14

36

33

31

Comparative on womens issues stands out as top

comparative

23

Now, let me read you a series of statements. For each statement, please tell me whether this description makes you much more likely to vote for

Mary Landrieu, somewhat more likely to vote for Mary Landrieu, just a little more likely to vote for Mary Landrieu, or no more likely to vote for

Mary Landrieu?

In the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, Landrieu brought over 50 billion

recovery dollars to Louisiana, and she has voted to cut red tape for small

businesses so they could get back to work after the storms. But while

thousands of Louisianans struggled to rebuild their homes, businesses and

communities after the storms, Bill Cassidy voted against relief for hurricane

victims and opposed funding for coastal restoration.

Mary Landrieu voted to hold the Wall Street banks accountable for their

practices that caused our economy to crash, and she voted to end tax breaks

for corporations that send American jobs overseas to places like China and

India. But Bill Cassidy supported protecting tax breaks for corporations that

ship American jobs overseas. Cassidy also voted to give tax breaks to people

making over a million dollars a year, while at the same time raising taxes by

hundred dollars on middle class families

Mary Landrieu stands up for Louisiana women, voting for equal pay for women

and men and to prevent insurance companies from charging women more than

men. She's also worked to make college affordable and lower student debt. But

Bill Cassidy voted to block women from being paid the same as men for equal

work and he voted against a bipartisan plan to protect women against

domestic violence. And even though he is a doctor, Cassidy voted to cut off

women's access to cancer screenings and maternity care.

Much More LikelyPersuadables

*Note: Survey of 1,000 likely 2014 white voters in Louisiana , with 456 persuadable voters conducted Oct. 11-14, 2014.


24/27

19

23

36

42

Much More Likely

Womens message and hurricane relief top comparatives

overall and among key groups

24

In the wake of Hurricanes

Katrina and Rita, Landrieu

brought over 50 billion recovery

dollars to Louisiana, and she has

voted to cut red tape for small

businesses so they could get

back to work after the storms.

But while thousands of

Louisianans struggled to rebuild

their homes, businesses and

communities after the storms,

Bill Cassidy voted against relief

for hurricane victims and

opposed funding for coastal

restoration.

Mary Landrieu stands up for

Louisiana women, voting for

equal pay for women and men

and to prevent insurance

companies from chargingwomen more than men. She's

also worked to make college

affordable and lower student

debt. But Bill Cassidy voted to

block women from being paid

the same as men for equal work

and he voted against abipartisan plan to protect

women against domestic

violence. And even though he is

a doctor, Cassidy voted to cut

off women's access to cancer

screenings and maternity care.

Now, let me read you a series of statements. For each statement, please tell me whether this description makes you much more likely to vote for

Mary Landrieu, somewhat more likely to vote for Mary Landrieu, just a little more likely to vote for Mary Landrieu, or no more likely to vote forMary Landrieu?

Persuad-

ables

Unmarr

Women

15

28

33

47

Much More Likely

Persuad-

ables

Unmarr

Women



25/27

44

40

36

69

65

65

Vets and Secret Money are strongest attacks on Cassidy

25

Now, let me read you a series of statements that could be used to describe Bill Cassidy. For each statement, please tell me whether this

description raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts or no real doubts in your own mind about Bill Cassidy.

Cassidy supports the Supreme Court's decision to allow wealthy special interests

and big corporations spend unlimited amounts of secret money to buy elections,

taking the power away from regular citizens and putting it in the hands of just a

few billionaires. Cassidy made sure CEOs paid no higher taxes and that their

loopholes are protected, while working men and women struggle.

Cassidy is a doctor, but he voted for a plan that would cut veterans benefits,

including health care and disability compensation. And Cassidy opposed

expanding veterans' access to the LSU VA hospital, while he pocketed more than

one million dollars from teaching at LSU and working at the hospital. He even

voted against a small pay increase for troops serving in Afghanistan, but voted to

protect his own pay.

Very Serious Doubts Persuadables

Cassidy is a doctor, yet he voted to end the Medicare guarantee, which would

force seniors to negotiate with insurance companies and cost them thousands

more out of pocket every year. He also voted to cut Social Security benefits and

to raise the retirement age to 70, even though the average lifespan for poorer

Louisianans is only 67.**

**One of the strongest drivers of the revote in regression modelling*Note: Survey of 1,000 likely 2014 white voters in Louisiana , with 456 persuadable voters conducted Oct. 11-14, 2014.


26/2726

And still thinking about the election for U.S. Senate, if the December runoff election for U.S.

Senate were being held today and the candidates were Democrat Mary Landrieu and

Republican Bill Cassidy, for whom would you vote?

Revote Cassidy

Negatives

Initial Vote

+39

Revote

Comparative

+29+52

After a comparative experiment Landrieu gains 10 points

among persuadables

19 2329

71

6258

Vote for Landrieu Vote for Cassidy

Among Persuadables Voters



27/27

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democracy corps 2014 midterm analysis for the wednesday group

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