Democracy and National Security

or could it be golf?

Democracy Promotion and National Security

Primary Objective of US National Security Bush Administration Promoting free and open societies around the

world The National Security Strategy (NSS -2002): “there is

a single sustainable model for national success: freedom, democracy, and free enterprise”

Iraq and Afghanistan

Democracy Promotion and National Security Also Large Part of Clinton National

Security Strategy

Why?Why is democracy associated with peace?Are people in democracies just nicer?

Democracy Promotion and National Security

Where academics and policy collide

The Democratic Peace Proposition:Democracies do not got war with one another.

Can we prove this? What is the causal mechanism? Are there other explanations?

Alternative to Democracy Golf leads to World Peace!

Golf is a non-zero sum game -Diminishes conflict

Golf and World PeaceHypothesis: Golfing nations never go to war with each other How to test this hypothesis 1. I’ll Define golfing/non-golfing nations as 1 course per

million of population2. Check the war involvement of golfing nations: never on

opposite sides of a war. Exceptions1) Britain vs. Argentina (prob. Fewer golf courses in 1982) and Northern Ireland (Basques in Spain?)

2) South Africa.

Criticisms?

1. Criticism: many violent game are also played in golfing countries. 1. At what level does the theory work? Leaders, population in general,

environmental?2. Leaders in non-golfing country often play golf but it does not

inhibit conflict there?3. Most people in golfing states don’t play golf!

3. Spurious Correlation! Golf occurs mainly in wealthy countries! How might you prove this? Test: weather wealthy nations fight. Define wealth. Reject: France and Germany both among the wealthiest nations in 1939!

Okay Back to Democracy

The Influence of Regime Typeon International Relations

1. Classifying Regimes: Autocracy Versus Democracy

2. Possible Hypotheses Related to Regime TypesH1: Democracy --(-)--> Income InequalityH2: Autocracy --(+)--> Revolts And Domestic UnrestH3: Democracy --(-)--> Economic DevelopmentH4: Autocracy --(-)--> Economic Development

3. Our Hypothesis Relating Regime Type And WarH5: Democracy --(-)--> War Proneness

Democracies And War1. Immanuel Kant’s

“Perpetual Peace”

(1795)

Prediction: Spread Of Democracy Will Cause Peace

Rationale: Distribution Of Costs And Benefits Of War--Elites Reap Benefits While People Pay Costs

Conclusion: More Inclusive Political Institutions Should Lead To A Permanent Peace

R.I.P.“Perpetual

Peace”

How Could You Test Kant’s Argument?

Democracies And War

DemocraticStates

Probability ofInitiating War

(-)

B) State Level Test:

Higher Percentageof Democracies

Amount of Warin the System

(-)

A) Systemic Test:

Systemic Test: Democratization

Systemic Test: War

Systemic Test: Democracy & War

State Level Test

A) Quincy Wright (1942): No Support

B) Small And Singer (1976): No Support

C) A more recent test: Doyle (1983)

H1: Democracy --(-)--> War InvolvementWar Involvement

Doyle’s Approach: Dyadic PeaceSide B

Democracy Autocracy

Democracy

Autocracy

Side A

NoneNone

Lots Lots

Lots

Dyadic Democratic Peace:A) Democracies Are Peaceful With Each OtherB) But Democracies Are Just As Conflictual As

Other States When Facing Non-democracies

Empirical Evidence

War No war

Joint democracy

0 3878 3878

One not

democratic

32 25272 25203

32 29049 29081

Source: Politically relevant dyads Russett “Grasping the Democratic Peace”

Is it really true? Top 10 Possible exceptions1. Athens vs. Syracuse 415-413BC

2. US imperial wars against native Americans

3. Israel vs. Lebanon 1967

4. India vs. Pakistan 1948

5. Boer war 1899-1902

6. WW2: Hitler came to power by more or less democratic means!

7. WW2 Again!: Finland is democratic

8. Spanish-American War 1898

9. US civil war 1861-1865

10. War of 1812

How do we define our terms

What is democracy and what is war?

Democracy?

War?

Three Hypotheses about the Democratic Peace Pacific Publics

Normative

Institutions

Can Kant and the Pacific Public Explain the Democratic Peace?

The Argument: Public Does Not Want To Pay For Costly Wars.

Problems:1) Democracies Should Be Peaceful With Everyone2) Many Examples Of Pro-War Publics (e.g., Spanish-American

War & Crimean War)

H1: Pacific Public --(-)--> Conflict Between Democracies

Can Peaceful Norms Of Conflict Resolution Explain The Democratic Peace?

Problems:1) Democracies Don’t Always Have Peaceful Norms2) Externalization Is Not Automatic3) Implies All Authoritarian Are Equally War Prone4) What About Young Democracies?

Do Democracies Produce Better People?

H2: Peaceful Norms Of ----(-)-----> Conflict Between Democracies Conflict Resolution

Argument:1) Socialized To Favor Non-violent Resolution Conflicts. 2) Domestic Norms are Externalized3) Expect Other Democracies to be Less Conflict Prone

Can Institutional Constraints Explain the Democratic Peace?

H3: Institutional --(-)--> Conflict Between Democracies Constraints

Argument: 1) All Leaders Wish to Remain in Office2) Support and Opposition Exists in All Societies3) Opposition Exploits Failure to Punish Leaders4) The Greater the Opposition, the More Cautious the Leader5) Expect Other Democracies to be Constrained

Problems:1) Some Types of Autocratic Institutions are Constrained2) Open Institutions Does Not Guarantee Opposition

Bottom Line

• Strong Consensus that Democracies Are Less Likely to Use Large Scale Force Against Other Democracies

• Still Working Out Causal Explanation

DemocraticNorms

DemocraticStructures

InternationalInternationalConflictConflict

(-) (-)

Lessons From The Democratic Peace Investigation

1. Correlations Can Be Spurious; -- You Must Investigate The Causal Guts

2. Some Hypotheses Or Explanations Can Be Eliminated (e.g., Pacific Publics)

3. Important Practical Implications:a) Is Covert Action A Permanent Problem?b) Are Young Democracies More War Prone?c) Could a Quasi-Democratic Russia Be Partially Constrained?

Policy Implications? Depends on which casual mechanism is

correct?

Pacific Publics? – Yes peaceNorms? – Maybe but when?Leaders? – For the moment but no guarantees!