defining and enhancing the safe yield of multi-use, multi
TRANSCRIPT
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Defining and Enhancing the Safe Yield of Multi-use, Multi-Reservoir
Systems
April 28, 2014
Catawba-Wateree Water Management Group (CWWMG) Barry Gullet, CMUD & CWWWMG
HDR Engineering McKim & Creed Engineers
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Presentation Agenda
• Basin Overview
• Master Plan Key Elements
• Initial Results
• Integrated Future Water Scenarios
• Discussion
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Acknowledgements • Master Plan Funding Sponsors
– Duke Energy Foundation
– NC Department of Environment and Natural Resources
– SC Department of Natural Resources
• Safe Yield Research Project
– Water Research Foundation
• Consultant Team
– HDR Engineering
– McKim and Creed Engineers
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The Catawba-Wateree River is one of America’s hardest working rivers
Water supply for: 1.5 million people in 17
counties 45% of Duke Energy’s
generating capacity in the Carolinas
Recreational interests Industrial production Agricultural/irrigation
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Multi-Use, Multi-Reservoir System
- 13 Hydroelectric Stations
- 11 Interconnected Reservoirs
- 831 MW Hydropower
- 8,167 MW Nuclear and Fossil
- Drinking water for 1.5 million people
- FERC Licensed Hydro Project
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Catawba-Wateree Water Management Group (CWWMG)
• Identify, fund and manage projects
• Extend and enhance the capacity of the Catawba and Wateree Rivers
• Meet human needs while maintaining the ecological health of the waterway
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Member Organizations
• Town of Granite Falls
• City of Hickory
• City of Lenoir
• Lincoln County
• Town of Long View
• City of Morganton
• Town of Mooresville
• City of Mount Holly
• City of Statesville
• Town of Valdese
• Duke Energy Carolinas
• City of Camden
• Catawba River Water Supply Project
• Chester Metropolitan District
• Lugoff-Elgin Water Authority
• City of Rock Hill
• City of Belmont
• City of Charlotte
• City of Gastonia
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Basin-Wide Water Supply Master Plan
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Goal – Develop plan to extend safe yield of the Catawba-Wateree River
(complete)
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Stakeholders
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Master Plan Key Elements
• Future water demand projections
• Water modeling
• Future modeling scenarios
• Low inflow protocol modification recommendations
• Climate change impacts integration
• Water supply regionalization
• Safe yield enhancement strategies
• Stakeholder advisory team
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Low Inflow Protocol (LIP)
• Component of Duke Energy’s future FERC License
• Purpose is to reduce water usage during drought
• Developed by Duke and Relicensing Stakeholders
• Implemented voluntarily during 2007 drought
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Low Inflow Protocol (LIP)
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LIP Required Actions
• Actions required by Duke and water utilities
• Progressive reduction of flows released from dams
• Progressive restrictions on water use
• Progressive reductions to minimum lake levels
• Progressively increase communication with customers
• Increase communications between water utilities and Duke Energy
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Pre-Master Plan Project Research
• How to define and determine Safe Yield
• Can Safe Yield be increased?
• Full report can be found at http://catawbawatereewmg.com/
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Safe Yield Factors
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Climate Change Analysis
• Used Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States report (Karl, Melillo and Peterson 2009)
• Low Emissions and High Emissions Scenarios
• For Catawba-Wateree Basin
– Temperatures predicted to rise 5 – 8 degrees by 2100
– Precipitation change uncertain – assume no change
– Evaporation rates increase by 17% - 26%
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Climate Change Impact • Assume climate changes do not trigger change
in water demand
• Low Inflow Protocol is major factor
• Low Emissions Scenario
– No change to Safe Yield (Base line is 638 – 692 mgd for upper 7 reservoirs)
• High Emissions Scenario
– Reduces Safe Yield by 74 mgd
– Shifts time to reach Safe Yield by about 10 years
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C-W Basin - Net Withdrawal Total Basin
Comparison of Revised Projections to Previous Projections
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0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
450.0
500.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070
Ne
t W
ith
dra
wal
(M
GD
)
Comparison of Catawba-Wateree Basin Studies Net Withdrawal for All Subbasins and All Categories
2006 Historical 2006 Projected 2012 Historical 2012 Projected
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CHEOPS Modeling Input to New Baseline
Duke Energy’s CRA
2002 DOR
2006 WSS Projections
Duke Energy’s CRA
2007 DOR
C-W WSMP Projections
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No Climate Change Impact
Climate Change Impact on Supply
Low Inflow Protocol (LIP)
LIP w/ Mods
•Duke Response •PWS Reductions
Additional Updates to Conform to NC SL 2010-143, Secure EMC Approval, and per NC/SC Settlement Agreement
Negative
Positive
Positive
Negative
Impact to Water Supply
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Population Projections
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Individual Future Scenarios • Baseline
• Population growth
• Public water supplier water use changes
• Power consumptive water use changes
• Climate change
• Critical intake modifications
• Effluent flow recycling
• Modified reservoir operations
• Low inflow protocol modifications
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Integrated Future Scenarios
• 27 individual scenarios were combined into 5 integrated future scenarios
• Looked at combination of changes on safe yields
– What if climate change impacts and more rapid growth occur?
– What if critical lake intakes are lowered and demand strategies are employed?
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Integrated Future Scenarios
• Planning Level
– Lower critical intakes and raise some summer lake levels
– Pushes safe yield date to 2095
• Best Case Scenario
– Lower critical intakes and raise some summer lake levels
– Pushes safe yield date into next century
• Worst Case Scenario
– Lower critical intakes and raise summer lake levels
– Pushes safe yield date to 2065
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Future Planning Scenarios
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MP-01 Planning Case
MP-02 Best Case
MP-03 Worst Case
Baseline Population Growth / Demand (PG-01)
Slow Population Growth (PG-02)
Rapid Population Growth (PG-03)
Baseline Climate Change (CC-01)
No Climate Change Multi-Model Ensemble Climate Change (CC-03)
Lower Lake James Critical Elevation (Bridgewater Powerhouse) (CI-02)
Lower Lake James Critical Elevation (Bridgewater Powerhouse) (CI-02)
Lower Lake James Critical Elevation (Bridgewater Powerhouse) (CI-02)
Modified ‘Failure’ of Intake as to Below Critical Intake Level by 0.1’ or more
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Future Planning Scenarios
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Action Basin Failure Decade
2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
MP-01 Planning Case
Norman Mtn Island
Wylie
MP-01M Mitigated Planning Case
Mtn Island
MP-02 Best Case
Wylie
MP-02 M Mitigated Best Case
MP-03 Worst Case
Wylie
MP-03Ma Mitigated Worst Case A
Wylie
MP-03Mb Mitigated Worst Case B
Mtn Island Wylie
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Mitigated Planning Case
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Action Schedule
2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065
High End Water Use Efficiency (Resid. & Wholesale) (WC-01D)
Establish WUEP
Continue Monitor
Continue Monitor
Continue Monitor
Reduction Goal Year 2056
Lower Upper Catawba Intakes (CI-01)
Feasibility/ Predesign
Financing/ Permitting
Design and Construction
Complete by 2045
Lower Lake Norman Critical Intake (CI-03) Operations
Change
Lower Lake Wylie Critical Intakes (CI-04) Feasibility/ Predesign
Financing/ Permitting
Design and Construction
Complete by 2045
Raise summer target operating levels by 6” (RO-02B)
Evaluate Impacts of
Change
Modify CRA (if needed)
Semi-Monthly LIP Stage Lookup (LP-03) Operations
Change
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Master Plan Status
• Final report to be released May 9, 2014
• 25 Results and Recommendations
• Recommends actions to extend safe yield into next century
• Next phases
– Increase awareness and support
– Expand to water quality issues
– Future updates and plan adjustments
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Questions?
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