define end-state and optimize monitoring program using ... · define end-state and optimize...
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Define End-State and Optimize Monitoring Program Using High-Performance Computing
Haruko Wainwright
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
10/19/2017
Sustainable/Green Remediation
Sustainable Remediation Forum (SURF), "Integrating sustainable principles, practices, and metrics into remediation projects", Remediation Journal, 19(3), pp 5 - 114, editors P. Hadley and D. Ellis, Summer 2009
Trade offs:
Contaminant removal vs
- Cost
- Waste
- CO2 emission
- Energy Use
- Ecological Impacts
- Noise, Air pollution
Portland Harbor Example (AECOM)
By McNally et al.
• Re-development
– Restrictive use but added value
– Solar farms, parks, factories
Attractive End-State
Former Reilly Tar & Chemical Corporation Plant
Rocky Flats National Wildlife Refuge
• Reuse/recycle
• Reduce energy/water use
• Reduce waste
• Attractive end-use
• Passive remediation
• Monitored natural attenuation
Increased Burden of Proof
- Plume stability
- Negligible health effect
Sustainable/Green Remediation
Sustainable Remediation Forum (SURF), "Integrating sustainable principles, practices, and metrics into remediation projects", Remediation Journal, 19(3), pp 5 - 114, editors P. Hadley and D. Ellis, Summer 2009
• Ensure public safety
• Prepare for liability issues
Environmental Monitoring
Good example: Monitoring data proves that the site is safe to dismiss false claims
Bad example: Data anomaly cannot be explained extra >$100M
Beneficial for both residents and site operators
Fukushima Radiation Monitoring
7
• Integrate various types/footprints of data
• Uncertainty quantification
• Adopted by Nuclear Regulatory Agency
Before Integration After Integration
Wainwright H.M et al., (2016), A Multiscale Bayesian Data Integration Approach for Mapping Air Dose Rates around the Fukushima Daiichi NPP, J. of Env. Radioactivity
New Paradigm of Long-Term Monitoring
phone tower
Cloud
Storage
Computing
work
computer
well
Sensors
data logger
& modem
- Water Table
- pH
- Redox
- Electrical Conductivity (EC)
• In situ sensors, wireless network, cloud computing
Autonomous continuous monitoring
Detect changes
Reduce monitoring cost
Artificial Neural Network
Big Data
Contaminant concentrations
Monitoring Objective
Regulatory Compliance
Public Trust
Performance Confirmation (site/models)
Time
1. Reduce long-term monitoring cost, while
ensuring the safety
– Great portion of life cycle cost
– Detect leaks/migration early
2. Ensure long-term stability of plumes
– Climate Resiliency
– What to expect in monitoring data?
Research Goals
10
Demonstration: SRS F-Area
• Disposal activities:– Disposal of low-level radioactive, acid waste solutions (1955–
1989)
– Acidic plume with radionuclides (pH 3–3.5, U, 90Sr, 129I, 99Tc, 3H)
• Remediation approaches– Pump & treat ($12M/yr) Passive remediation (funnel-gate
system for pH neutralization; $1M/yr)
– Natural attenuation: long-term remediation alternative
• Big Data analytics– e.g., Principle component
analysis (PCA)
– System understanding
– Data correlations
Monitoring at SRS F-Area
Tritium Concentrations
Schmidt et al. (submitted to EST)
Uranium Concentrations
• Kalman filtering
– In situ real-time estimation of contaminant concentration
Virtual Test Bed: Flow/Transport Model
13
Bea et al. (2013)
3D Mesh Development
14
Geochemistry Development
15
• Complex geochemistry
– pH Dependent
– Aqueous complexation
– Surface complexation
– Mineral dissolution/precipitation
– Cation exchange
– Decay
Mineral dissolution/precipitation
Surface complexiation, cation exchange
Aqueous complexiation
(and more)
Virtual Test Bed: ASCEM Overview
16
Advanced Simulation Capability for Environmental Management
3D Plume Evolution
17
Low-pH plume
U plume
(a) 1966
(d) 1966
Validation with Observations
18
Uranium Al3+ NO3-
Good agreement with observations
In Situ Variables – Uranium Conc.
19
Nitrate (EC) pH
Measured
Simulated
Future Conditions on Monitoring
- Uncertainty in source, hydrological, geochemical, and boundary parameters
- Independent from time-varying parameters Robust in situ monitoring
Global Sensitivity Analysis- Random permutation of
parameters- 100s of 3D simulations
Impact on in situ-derived parameters and relationships
• Cost effective strategies for long-term monitoring– In situ sensors
– Based on the correlations between master variables and contaminant concentrations
– Data analytics: Kalman filter etc
• Virtual Test Bed at SRS F-Area– High-performance computing code ASCEM
– Understand the correlations between in situ variables and contaminant concentrations
– UQ simulations: Quantify the effects of parameter uncertainty and identify the important parameters
Summary: In situ Monitoring
21
Extreme Events
• Flooding
• Drought
Resiliency to Climate Disturbances
22
Savannah River Flooding, 2016
What will happens residual contaminants? Mobility vs Dilution
Technical Initiative in SURF- How to prepare for climate change in sustainable remediation
23
General Hydrology Model
+/- Precipitation/Temperature Infiltration, ETMobility vs Dilution
Libera et al., submitted to EST
24
Climate Scenarios: Surface Recharge
1956 1989 2020Basin Discharge Capping Basin: Residual Plume
x10
25
Scenarios
1956 1989 2020Basin Discharge Capping Basin: Residual Plume
+50%
-50%
+50%
-50%
x10+/- Capping Failure
Plume Evolution: Baseline Tritium
1977
2000
2033
Clay layer
Changes during Discharge: Source-zone Well
- Higher infiltration Higher concentration in early time- Lower infiltration Longer plume persistence
28
Changes for Residual: Source-zone Well
- Higher infiltration Higher concentration- Cap failure effects will be exacerbated with higher infiltration- One-year heavy rain will influence for decades
Heavy Rain: 1 yr
Cap Fail + 50%
Cap Fail: Baseline
+ 50%
29
Changes for Residual: Downgradient Well
- Initial dilution residual contaminants arrive- Effects of one-year heavy rain will linger for decades - Cap failure effects will be exacerbated with higher infiltration
Heavy Rain: 1 yr
Cap Fail + 50%
Cap Fail: Baseline
+ 50%
- 50%
30
Changes for Residual: Export to River
- Smaller differences: Cumulative measure- Cap failure effects are significant
Cap Fail + 50%Cap Fail: Baseline
• Better explaining the data
– Higher infiltration: Initial dilution residualcontaminants (vadose zone) arrives later
Record keeping is important
– One-year of heavy rain continues to influence for several years to decades
– Well concentrations fluctuate more, but the export (risk pathway) might not change
• Source-zone well is important to detect the residual plume movement in situ monitoring
Implication for Monitoring
• Modeling
– No “conservative” models
– Trade-offs: higher concentration now or later
• Remediation
– High precipitation residual contaminants in
the vadose zone can migrate
– Surface capping is critical
– Maintenance of caps (vegetation, animals …)
Implication for Modeling/Remediation
• Trade offs: mobility vs dilution
• Higher infiltration initial dilution
mobilized residual contaminants increased
concentration
• Monitoring implication: long-term effects,
importance of source-zone wells
• Remediation implication: importance of
capping
Summary: Climate Resiliency
Overall Summary 1
• Sustainable Remediation
– Net environmental impact
– Restricted but attractive end-use
– Transition from intensive remediation to passive remediation or monitored natural attenuation
• Importance of Monitoring vs Modeling
– Monitoring is critical for public trust and acceptance
– Modeling is useful for planning and policy decisions as well as for understanding systems
Summary 2
• Cost effective strategies for long-term
monitoring
– In situ sensors for continuous monitoring
– Reduce cost while enhancing the safety
– Data analytics: Kalman filter etc
• Climate Resiliency
– Trade-off effects: Mobility vs Dilution
– Understand the system to explain data anomaly
– Re-evaluate the strategy for residual
contaminants?