Decision Technologies – decision making in the networked environment

Ömer S. Benli, Ph.D.

Internet

• Surveying the Digital Future: How the PC and Internet Are Changing the World • To download or to view the UCLA Internet

Report: http://ccp.ucla.edu/pages/internet-report.asp

Sizing the Internet

http://www.cyveillance.com/web/downloads/Sizing_the_Internet.pdf

Heavy information overload

• the world's total yearly production of print, film, optical, and magnetic content would require roughly 1.5 billion gigabytes of storage. This is the equivalent of 250 megabytes per person for each man, woman, and child on earth.

http://www.sims.berkeley.edu/research/projects/how-much-info/

Worldwide information production

(Economist Magazine, October, 2000)

Hard drive cost per gigabyte

http://www.sims.berkeley.edu/research/projects/how-much-info/charts/charts.html

Evolution of IT: the networked environment

Networked environment

has• increased the speed, and • improved the accuracy of information availability for

decision making.

Searching on the Internet

25 to 50 terabytes of information

http://www.press.umich.edu/jep/07-01/bergman.html

Deep WEB 7,500 terabytes of information

http://www.press.umich.edu/jep/07-01/bergman.html

“Web Services”: the next big wave of technology

• software applications that can find, link with, and talk to other applications over the Internet, sharing information and performing tasks without human intervention.

• “When web services reach their full potential, they will change the way we do business.”

http://www.accenture.com/xdoc/en/ideas/outlook/7.2002/web.pdf

Decision Technologies

• provide means for analysis and improvement of managerial decision processes, • Web-based ERP systems, • publicly accessible Internet-based

optimizers and decision support systems.

How the nature of business processes is affected

• Contents• Delivery methods• Time spans• Organizational aspects

With just a Web browser and no budget, anyone can

• do statistical computations atStatPoint.com

• solve optimization problems atNEOS Server for Optimization

• Use Web-based educational software like

WebGPSS

Some examples

• MarketSwitch real-time ad and productoffer placement for Web advertisers and e-commerce sites.

• OptiBid helps shippers conduct periodic bid events with their transportation providers to easily and quickly contract for needed freight-hauling capacity and service, at lower rates.

“Why the Decision Making in the Digital Economy Needs Decision Technologies”

• Cope with the data deluge• Cope with complexity• Cope with uncertainty, manage risk• Experiment without risk to

organization• Automate recurrent decisions

Geoffrion & Krishnan, OR in the E-Business Era

Speed of Computers

                                                                                                                        

                                                             

http://www.intel.com/research/silicon/mooreslaw.htm

Why total enumeration does not work:

Curse of dimensionality!

A simple scheduling problem

50 JOBS

MACH 1 MACH 2

A simple scheduling problem

50 JOBS

MACH 1 MACH 2

[1] [2] … [50]

A simple scheduling problem

50 JOBS

MACH 1 MACH 2

(50) (49) … (1)

A simple scheduling problem

50 JOBS

MACH 1 MACH 2

(50) (49) … (1)

6450! 3 10

Consider a computer that can execute 100 million calculations per second:

8 7 15(10 cal/sec)(3.2 10 sec/yr) = 3.2 10 cal/yr

With a computer that can execute 100 million calculations per second:

8 7 15(10 cal/sec)(3.2 10 sec/yr) = 3.2 10 cal/yr

64

15

(3 10 )calc

(3.2 10 )calc/yr

With a computer that can execute 100 million calculations per second:

8 7 15(10 cal/sec)(3.2 10 sec/yr) = 3.2 10 cal/yr

6449

15

(3 10 )calc10 years

(3.2 10 )calc/yr

With a computer that can execute 100 million calculations per second:

8 7 15(10 cal/sec)(3.2 10 sec/yr) = 3.2 10 cal/yr

6449

15

(3 10 )calc10 years

(3.2 10 )calc/yr

47or 10 centuries

About ten billion years ago, the Universe began in a gigantic explosion - the Hot Big Bang!

http://www.damtp.cam.ac.uk/user/gr/public/bb_home.html

About ten billion years ago, the Universe began in a gigantic explosion - the Hot Big Bang!

10

49 10 10 10 10 9

10 billion years = 10 years

10 (10 ) (10 ) (10 ) (10 ) (10 )

Fastest computer in the world: NEC’s “Earth Simulator”

                                                                                                                                                                                           

                                                        

40 trillion = 40,000,000,000,000,000 operations/sec

http://www.nec.co.jp/press/en/0203/0801.html

With a computer that can execute 40 trillion calculations per second:

13 7 21(4 10 calc/sec)(3.2 10 sec/yr) = 1.3 10 calc/yr

6443

21

(3 10 )calc10 years

(1.3 10 )calc/yr

41or 10 centuries

Clearly the total enumeration (brute force

computing) is not the answer!

• “Johnson’s Algorithm” solves this problem optimally by sorting the processing times in increasing order, and assigning jobs according to a simple rule.

Decision technologies

complement information technologies in the design of efficient and effective information systems for managerial decision making.