decentralized education planning

7/30/2019 Decentralized Education Planning

1/133


2/133

ImplementingNa tiona l EFA P la ns

Handbookfor Decentralized

Education Planning

UNESCO BangkokAsia a nd P a cific Regional


3/133

UNESC O Asia a nd P a cific Regional Burea u for Educa tion.

Education Policy and Reform Unit.

Hand bo ok for Decentralized Educa tion P la nning: Implementing National EFA P la ns.

Bangkok: UNESCO Asia and Pacific Regional Bureau for Education, 2005.

122 pages + 1 CD-ROM

1. Educational planning.

2. Educational decentralization.

3. Educational development.

4. Educational administration.

5. Guides .

ISB N 92-9223-055-7

UNESC O 2005

P ublished by theUNESC O Asia a nd P a cific Regional Burea u for Educa tion

920 Sukhumvit Rd., Prakanong

B a ngkok 10110, Tha ila nd

Tel: (66) 2-391-0577, 2-381-0703

Fa x: (66) 2-391-0866

Design and production: Keen Publishing

P rinted in Tha ila nd

The de signa tions employed a nd the p res enta tion of ma teria l throug hout the pub lica tion d o not imply

the express ion of a ny opinion w hats oever on the pa rt of UNES CO c oncerning the lega l sta tus of a nycountry, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning its frontiers or boundaries.


4/133

Acronyms and Abbreviations v

Preface vi

Acknowledgements vii

Introduction viii

1. Modernization of Education Sector Management 1

1.1 New Trends in P ublic S ec tor Ma na gement Releva nt to Educa tion 1

1.2 S a lient Fea tures of Modern Educa tion P la nning 5

2. The Concept of Decentralized Education Planning 9

2.1 G enera l Fea tures 9

2.2 Na tiona l EFA P la ns a nd P rovinc ia l P la nning 10

2.3 The P urposes a nd P rinc ipa l S teps of P rovinc ia l 11

Educa tion P la nning2.4 S itua tion Ana lys is 12

2.5 Ta rget S etting 13

2.6 Opera tiona l Area s 14

2.7 Action P rogra mmes 15

2.8 Monitoring 15

2.9 The P rovinc ia l Educa tion P la n Document 15

3. The Analysis and Projection Model (ANPRO-Model) 19

3.1 G enera l Fea tures 19

3.2 Ma in Technica l Fea tures of the ANP RO-Model 21

4. How to Use the ANPRO-Model 27

4.1 Va ria bles of the Model 27

4.2 How to Ma ke P rojec tion S cena rios 28

4.3 How to Ma ke Alterna tive S c ena rios 31

Contents


5/133

5. Technical Notes on Specific Features of the ANPRO-Model 33

Technica l Note 1: S chool-a ge P opula tion P rojec tions 34

Technica l Note 2: Access to S chooling 39

Technica l Note 3: In-migration of Sc hool-a ge P opulation 41

Technica l Note 4: Number of Tea chers Needed 42Technica l Note 5: Universa l B a s ic Educa tion (UB E) 44

Te chnic a l No te 6: P o te ntia l C a nd id a te s fo r No n-Fo rma l Ed uc a tio n (NFE) 45

Technica l Note 7: Funda menta l S chool Qua lity Level (FS QL) 46

Technica l Note 8: Recurrent and Ca pital Expenditure 47

Technica l Note 9: Tea cher S a la ries 49

Tec hnica l Note 10: Expenditure for S upport Fac ilities a nd for the Functioning 50

of P rovincia l Educa tion Administra tions

Technica l Note 11: C la ss rooms to be B uilt 51

Technica l Note 12: Linea r Interpola tion for Ta rget S etting 54

Technica l Note 13: Error Messa ges Co ncerning Drop-out P ercenta ge s 55

6. Analytical Tools 57

6.1 Extra c ting Ta bles for Inc lus ion in a Text 57

6.2 Checking and Analyzing Trends with Graphs 60

6.3 Monitoring Da ta w ith G ra phs 61

7. Monitoring of Plan Implementation and Updating of the Education Plan 63

7.1 The Concept of P la n Implementa tion Monitoring 63

7.2 A Tool for Monitoring P la n Implementa tion 647.3 Upda ting the ANP RO-Model 67

ANNEXES

Annex I: 69

Situation Analysis

Annex II: 75

Action Programmes

Annex III: 81

The ANPRO-Mod el

GLOSSARY 109

CD-ROM:

(1) the Ha ndb oo k

(2) the Exc el Workbo ok for the ANPRO-Mod el

(3) the Exce l Workboo k for the Ana lytica l Too ls (P opula tion a nd G raphics)

(4) the Exce l Workboo k for Monitoring P la n Implementa tion


6/133

ADB Asia n Development B a nk

AP EC Asia -P a c ific Economic Forum

AS EAN Assoc ia tion of S outhea s t As ia n Na tions

C P RG S C omprehensive P overty Reduc tion a nd G rowth S tra tegy

ECC E Ea rly Childhood C a re a nd Educa tion

EFA Educa tion for All

EMIS Educa tion Ma na gement Informa tion S ystem

ANP RO-Model Ana lys is a nd P rojec tion Model

G IS G eogra phica l Informa tion S ys tem

ICT Informa tion a nd C ommunica tion Technology

ILO Interna tiona l La bour Orga niza tion

IMF Interna tiona l Moneta ry Fund

IT Informa tion Technology

LS E Low er S econda ry Educa tion

MDG Millennium Development G oa ls

MTEF Medium-Term Expenditure Fra mework

P BA P rogramme-B as ed Approa ch

S EAMEO S outhea st As ia n Minis ters of Educa tion Orga niza tion

S WAP S ector-Wide Approa ch

TB S Ta rgeted B udget S upport

UB E Universa l B a s ic Educa tion

UNES C O United Na tions Educa tiona l, S c ientific and Cultura l Orga niza tion

US E Universa l S econda ry Educa tion

UP E Universa l P rima ry Educa tion

WHO World Hea lth Orga niza tion

Acronyms and Abbreviations


7/133

The Ed uca tion for All (EFA) go a ls a do pted by the World Educ a tion Forum in Dakar, S enega l in April

2000 a re a t the ce ntre o f UNES C Os ed uca tion a ctivities wo rldw ide . The EFA go a ls a re inspiring

educa tion reform and development s tra tegies a nd plans of ma ny co untries. They a re a lso strong

guiding principles for donors. The w ide -ra nging efforts to a chieve the EFA go a ls c ome a t a time w hen

many countries are engaged in a process of modernizing the management of public sectors.

Educa tion is the larges t public s ec tor direc tly co nce rned. This prese nts formida ble cha llenge s for

bo th the na tiona l ed uca tion a uthorities a nd their external partners, the do nors. In ma ny co untries , the

roles, functions and tasks of the principle education sector stakeholders are undergoing significant

changes. Decentralization, which is a major component of the modernization of public sectormanagement, transforms the relationship between the central level, principally the Education

Ministries, and local levels. In particular, provincial education authorities are entrusted with greater

new responsibilities for resource allocation and efficient utilization of human, material and financial

resources. At the same time, programme-based approaches are increasingly applied in education

pla nning a nd reform.

S trengthening the profess ional a nd technica l knowledge of sta ff at c entra l and provincial educ ation

levels is an ess entia l condition for the succ ess ful moderniza tion of ed uca tion s ector ma nag ement.

Ca pa city needs to be built that ena bles ma nag ement sta ff to a ) a ctively co ntribute to the sha ping of

the new functions and b) carry out new management tasks in the areas of planning, programme

preparat ion, a nd implementation mo nitoring.

Over the past years, UNESCO has been a partner to many countries in the Asia and Pacific region

in the p repa ra tion o f na tiona l EFA pla ns. More recently, UNESC O ha s w orked to s upport their efforts

to implement the national EFA plans through decentralized education planning and to develop

country-specific programme-based planning approaches. By publishing this Handbook, UNESCO

intends to c ontribute to ca pa city building in modern educa tion s ector ma nag ement. The Hand boo k

promotes a common sense, easy-to-work-with and effective education planning approach, and

pla nning to ols which respond to the planning need s a s perceived by co untries themselves.

B y sha ring its experienc e reg ion-wide, UNES CO ho pes to lead more and more countries in the reg ion

toward applying common education planning approaches, common monitoring methods andco mmon ed uca tiona l da ta s ys tems . This w ould g rea tly reinforce c oo peration within the reg ion a nd

strengthen empowered national education sector management capacity. It would enhance the

chances for success of presently piloted approaches like planning within medium-term expenditure

fra mew orks (MTEF) a nd s ec tor-w ide a pproa ches t o programme plann ing (S WAP ).

The Ha ndb oo k is prima rily a dd res se d to s ta ff of the planning units within Educ a tion Ministries a nd in

provincial level educa tion a dministra tions . The Ha ndb oo k is a lso intende d to be useful for the sta ff

of international funding a genc ies a nd international experts enga ged by thes e a genc ies.

Sheldon Shaeffer

Director UNESCO Bangkok

Preface


8/133

UNESCO-Bangkok is indebted to all persons who have contributed to this Handbook. First and

foremost, UNESCO would like to mention the many colleagues in Ministries of Education and in

provincial educ a tion a dministra tions in c ountries of the reg ion w ith w hom UNESC O joined force s in

a rang e o f EFA pla nning a ctivities . Their co-ope ra tion w a s integ ral in g a ining the firstha nd experienc e

that is underlying this Handbook.

UNES C O-Ba ngkok would a lso like to thank all thos e who ha ve direc tly co ntributed to the Hand bo ok:

Dr. Klaus Bahr, who conceived the Handbook and was also its principal author; Fadi Abillama and

Nyan Myint who, together with Klaus Bahr, designed the Analysis and Projection (ANPRO) Model;Ta Ngo c C ha u, who he lped de sign the a na lytica l too ls; a nd P ernille Askerud, who provide d c ritica l

professional advice and undertook the editing of the complex materials presented in the Handbook.

UNESCO-Bangkok owes special thanks to S.K. Chu, Head of the UNESCO Hanoi Office, and his

EFA s ta ff, particula rly Le Thu Huong , for co ntribut ing expe rienc e from the P rovincial Educ a tion

P la nning P ilot P rojec t c a rried out in 2004 by UNES CO a nd the Ministry of Educ a tion in a numb er of

provinces in Viet Nam.

The Ha ndb oo k wa s p repa red under the profess iona l a nd te chnica l co ordina tion of Do miniq ue Altner,

Chief of the Education Policy and Reform Unit of the UNESCO Asia and Pacific Regional Bureau for

Educa tion, Ba ngkok.

Acknowledgements


9/133

Modernization of education sector management

Many countries are currently in a process of modernizing the management of public sectors.

Education is one of the largest sectors in terms of personnel and recurrent expenditure and is also

among the larger public sectors in terms of capital expenditure. Strategies and activities aimed at

mode rniza tion of public sec tor mana gement therefore ha ve a significa nt impa ct o n educa tion s ector

management, including at decentralized levels.

Of the principle features of public sector modernization, three are directly relevant for education:

decentralization, international commitments, and new forms of programme-based resource

a lloc a tion to ed uca tion. Thes e trends w ill sha pe the w a y in which the educ a tion s ec tor will be

functioning in the future.

Decentralization aims at increasing responsibilities for efficient resource management and education

quality improvements at levels below the central level. However, decentralization also calls

for greater responsibilities for policy making and implementation monitoring at the central level,

in particular, by the Ministry of Education.

International commitments s uch a s Educa tion for All, P overty Red uction a nd G row th S trateg ies, and

the Millennium Developme nt Go a ls lead to new forms of pa rtnerships b etw een G overnments a nd theinternational donor community. National authorities at central and decentralized levels assume

increased responsibilities for the design and implementation of sector reform and development

programmes.

New forms of programme-based approaches (PBA) to education resource allocation are being

de signed , tes ted a nd a pplied . Thes e new forms include the introd uction of a Medium-Term

Expend iture Fra mew ork (MTEF), Ta rge ted B udg et S uppo rt (TB S ), a nd a S ec tor-Wide Approa ch

(S WAP ), a long w ith o thers. In the future, the Educ a tion P la n w ill inform the MTEF, w hich in turn w ill

inform the annual budget; the central level and the provincial level1 education authorities will then

ma nag e the planning a nd resource a lloc a tion process together.

The mod erniza tion of educ a tion se cto r ma na ge ment is a cha lleng e to b oth the Ministry of Educa tion

a nd to p rovincial level ed uca tion a uthorities . S treng thening the profess iona l a nd tec hnica l knowledg e

of sta ff a t bo th levels is an ess entia l condition for the s ucces sful moderniza tion of ed uca tion s ector

ma nag ement. Manag ement sta ff needs to be ena bled to a) ac tively contribute to the shaping of the

new functions, and b) to carry out new management tasks in the areas of planning, programme

preparat ion, a nd implementation mo nitoring.

Introduction


10/133

Purpose of the Handbook

The purpos e of this Ha ndb ook is to co ntribute to e na bling ed uca tion planning s ta ff a nd d ec ision

makers in Ministries of Education and in provincial education administrations to develop the

capacity needed to develop and apply consistent, sustainable education planning and

implementation monitoring a t b oth the c entral and provincial level. The Ha ndb ook d oes this b y

sharing the experience UNESCO gained by working with countries of the region on the preparation

of national EFA plans and, in particular, on the decentralized planning capacity needed for the

effective implementation of national EFA plans.

The ed uca tion planning a pproac h a nd the pla nning tool (the Ana lys is a nd P rojec tion Mod el the

ANPRO-Model) presented in this Handbook are based on a planning concept and a planning tool

which have been designed, tested and applied jointly by the Ministry of Education and provincial

ed uca tion o ffice s of Viet Na m w ith tec hnica l support from UNES CO in 2003-2004. The Ha ndb ook

reflects the education planning needs as perceived by national education authorities both at the

central and provincial levels.

The Ha ndb ook provide s tec hnica l informa tion o f a n innova tive kind co ncerning mod ern pla nning

conc epts a nd the us e of mo de rn IT-ba sed planning to ols (in pa rticula r, the ANPRO-Mod el). The

Handbook is for persons who possess basic knowledge and experience with education statistics,

se cto r a na lys is a nd ed uca tion planning a nd w ho a re fam ilia r w ith Microso ft Exce l. The Hand bo ok is

not intended a s tra ining or se lf-lea rning ma teria l for beg inners.

The Ha ndb ook is prima rily a dd res sing s ta ff of the planning units in the Ministry of Ed uca tion a nd in

provincial education administrations, as well as units that are directly involved in the education

planning process (the unit that provides statistics, the personnel management unit, the budget and

fina nce unit, the unit that p rovide s ed uca tion q uality c ontrol, a nd p olicy units). The Ha ndb oo k is a lso

geared toward staff of other Ministries directly relevant to the education sector (i.e. Ministry ofFinance, Ministry of Planning). Finally, the Handbook is also intended to be useful for the staff and

international experts engaged by international funding agencies.

UNESCOs support to modernization of national education planning

The Hand bo ok is pa rt of a s eries of a ctivities which UNES CO ha s b een unde rta king to s upport

countries of the East Asia and Pacific Region in their efforts to reach the Dakar EFA goals in

co st-effective wa ys . Thes e a ctivities include, a mong o thers:

the de velopme nt of a n EFA P la nning G uide for S outhea st a nd Ea st Asia, pub lishe d in 2001(in English, and translated into Arabic, French, Indonesian, Khmer, Laotian, Vietnamese,

a nd in summa ry form into C hines e);

exchange of information and learning from EFA planning experience in different countries,

pa rticularly through freq uent mee tings of na tiona l EFA co ordina tors;

normative work in education statistics for education planning and for plan implementation

monitoring;

extensive technical assistance to Education Ministries in countries across Asia for

the preparation of their national EFA plans;

extensive technical assistance to the Education Ministries of Viet Nam and Lao PDR for

the implementation of their National EFA Plans, in particular, for the design, testing and

pilot application of modern decentralized education planning approaches.


11/133

The UNESC O Asia a nd P a cific Reg iona l B urea u for Educ a tion in Ba ngkok will co ntinue to s upport

countries in their efforts to implement national EFA plans through exchange of experience and

technical assistance. Several technical publications based on specific country experience

a re planned.

An important aspect of UNESCOs activities in this area is the effort to enable national educationma nag ement sta ff to develop a nd introduc e sta nda rds a nd proc edures tha t are not just ad opted from

outside. UNESCO has made it a point to promote a broad-based understanding among national

education planning staff and to design the planning approach and tools, in particular, the

ANP RO-Mod els, to fit the d iversity of loca l situa tions a nd ca pa cities . This kind o f co ope ra tion

req uires significa nt effort in terms of ma na ging time, ma npow er and funds. There is no s hortcut to

the development of susta inab le mod ern educa tion pla nning c a pa city.


12/133


13/133

1.1 New Trends in Public Sector ManagementRelevant to Education

Decentralization is an essential feature of the on-going modernization and

reform of public sector management. In a growing number of countries,

new approaches in public sector finance constitute yet another important

reform effort.

Of the principle features of public sector modernization, three are of direct

relevance to educa tion. They w ill sha pe the w ay in which the educa tion

sector will be functioning in the future.

FEATURE 1: d ec entra liza tion

FEATUR E 2: inte rna t io na l c o mm it me nt s

FEATURE 3: new forms of progra mme-ba sed

reso urce a lloca tion to educa tion

The mea sures a lrea dy ta ken in these a rea s a nd thos e tha t will be ta ken in

the coming years have direct implications for the management of the

ed uca tion s ec tor a t a ll levels: c entral, provincial, district, co mmunity.

Feature 1:Decentralization

Management functions and tasks are increasingly being shifted from the

central level to other levels of administration such as provincial, district,and community levels. In education, the level immediately below the

Ministry of Education is usually the level in charge of ensuring the

functioning of decentralized management of all education activities

(exce pt for highe r ed uca tion). For the purpos es o f this Ha ndb ook, this

level will be referred to as the P ROVINCIAL LEVEL.

The p rovincial level a lso ha s the princ ipa l res pons ibility o f de livering

ed uca tiona l se rvice s a nd ma na ging educ a tiona l institutions . The goa ls

and targets set in the national education plan can only be achieved

through p rovincial level ac tions . This m ea ns tha t if the na tiona l ed uca tion

plan (such as the national EFA Plan) is to succeed, it has to be translatedinto provincial education plans and its implementation to be

de ce ntra lized . The tea ching-lea rning a ctivities ta ke pla ce a t the provincial

l l P i i l d i h i i i h f i h

Education sector management

functions and tasks are being

decentralized to provincial level

1MODERNIZATION OF EDUCATION

SECTOR MANAGEMENT


14/133

mana gement of the d ifferent educ a tion s ub-sectors a nd the functioning o f

the ed uca tion ins titutions (the s choo ls ). The impleme nta tion of the

national EFA Plan must be undertaken by transposing the national plan

into the provincial co ntext. To do so , the province s must prepa re their own

provincia l educa tion plans. G oa ls a nd ta rgets set in the na tional pla n have

to be broken down and adapted to the specific situation and needs inea ch p rovince through a proc ess of de centralized pla nning.

Feature 2: International Commitments

International commitments of governments increasingly influence national

educa tion s ecto r stra tegy dec isions a nd planning. They a re of high

importance in the co-operation with external donors.

Many governments are members of regional co-operation organizations

suc h a s AS EAN, AP EC a nd S EAMEO. They a re a lso memb ers ofinternational global organizations such as UN, ILO, WHO, IMF, UNESCO,

World B a nk, Asian Development B ank a nd development ba nks of other

regions. As members of these organizations, these governments have

committed to goals and targets formulated by consensus at the

international level. In recent years, such consensus has developed in

different areas, for example, in environment (the Tokyo P roto col), in social

and economic development (MDGs a nd P R G S ), and education EFA, UN

Initiative on Girls Education [UNGEI], the Convention on the Rights of the

Child [CRC]). Goa ls a nd ta rge ts rela ted to educ a tion a re not only included in

EFA strategies (as formulated in the Da kar Fra mew ork 2000)1, but a lso in

other internationally-adopted strategies (MDG, PRGS); however, the

emphasis on education is not the same, and not all education goals and

targets a re nece ss arily identica l or are applica ble ac ross these s tra tegies.

In the field of education, EFA, through the Dakar Framework, is informing

na tiona l ed uca tion s trateg ies a nd plans . The notion of EFA co vers four

sub-sectors of education: Early Childhood Care and Education (ECCE)2,

Primary Education, Lower Secondary Education (LSE), and Non-Formal

Educa tion (NFE).3 P rima ry a nd Lower S eco nda ry Educa tion tog ether form

a nine-yea r ba sic educa tion cyc le.

In adopting the Dakar EFA Framework, the international community

(comprising all governments and all education donors) have set the

following goals to be achieved by each country by 2015: expanding and

improving Pre-school; achieving free Universal Primary and Lower

Secondary Education of good quality; achieving gender equality;

providing education and training for out-of-school youths and adult

illiterates; and achieving recognized and measurable learning outcomes

a t a ll levels a nd for a ll ed uca tiona l a ctivities .4

International commitments of

governments are increasingly

reflected in national education

strategies and planning

1: Modernization of Education Sector Management

1 The World Education Forum meeting of A pril 2000 in Dakar, S enegal adopted the Dak ar Framework for Action,


15/133


For the international EFA goals to be attained in each country, they

ha d to be tra nslated into na tiona l EFA pla ns. The Da kar Framew ork

contains these principles to be applied in the preparation of the national

EFA P lans 5:

to plac e EFA w ithin a sus ta ina ble a nd w ell-integ ra tededuca tion s ecto r development fra mewo rk;

to draw up national pla ns w hich:

specify reforms addressing the six EFA goals;

establish a sustainable financial framework;

are time-bound and action-oriented;

include mid-term pe rformanc e indica tors;

a re included w ithin the na tiona l de velopme nt

pla nning framew ork a nd proces s;

attract co-ordinated support from all development partners.

The a pplica tion of thes e principles to the planning proc es s m ea ns tha t the

future development of the EFA sub-sectors must be placed within the

overa ll educa tion s ector c ontext. Hence, the plan for the EFA sub -sec tors

must be seen as an integral part of the overall education sector

development s trateg y a nd the sec tor budg et. The implementation of

national EFA plans must be a component of comprehensive education

development strategies and plans. In addition to the four EFA

sub-sectors, the education sector comprises other sub-sectors: Upper

S ec ond a ry, P rofes siona l S ec ond a ry, Tea che r P re-service a nd In-service

Training, etc .

Dec entralized (i.e. p rovincial) ed uca tion pla ns must find a co mprise for all

education sub-sectors and integrate them within one coherent sector

framework.6 Decisions on priorities and resource allocation should be

taken within this frame wo rk. S epa rate sub-sec tor pla ns tha t a re d raw n up

unrelated to and outside the overall framework, once adopted and

implemented, will disrupt the co herence o f overall se cto r development.

Feature 3: New Forms of Programme-Based ResourceAllocation to Education

In a numbe r of co untries , the mode rniza tion of public s ec tor mana ge ment

includes the design and testing of new approaches for the development

a nd pla nning of the educ a tion s ecto r, s uch a s the Medium-Term

Expend iture Frame work (MTEF), Ta rge ted B udg et S uppo rt (TB S ), a nd

S ec to r-Wide Approa ch (S WAp).

MTEF, MED IUM-TERM EXP ENDITURE FRAMEWOR K, refers to a

programme and programme budgets which contrary to the traditional

single-year budget practice cover a period of several years (usually

three yea rs). MTEF comprise s the follow ing fea tures:

Modernization of public sector

management includes new

programme-based approaches

for education planning


16/133


a detailed sector development programme which identifies

priorities a nd s ets o ut the targets to be a chieved b y the end

of the med ium-term pe riod ;

a detailed estimate of the personnel, material, and financial

res ource s req uired to implement the prog ra mme a ctivities ;

the annual budget allocations are dependent on thea chievement of the se t targets;

at the end of each year, progress of implementation is

a ss ess ed, a nd the MTEF is extended by o ne a dd itional year

so tha t the MTEF pla n a t a ny given time c overs a med ium-

term period.

The MTEF a pproac h a ss ures the province of a fores eea ble budg et a nd

a llow s a go od mea sure of flexibility in the seq uencing of ac tivities a nd the

use of reso urce s . The MTEF allow s p rovincial educ a tion authorities to

decide on allocation priorities (e.g. to reallocate additional resources

between ECCE and Primary Education), as well as the sequence ofactivities (what comes in the first year, what in the second year, etc.).

Disbursements depend on the progress of overall programme

implementa tion within the MTEF period a nd the s et ta rge ts.

The de sign of a co herent programme is e ss entia l for the effectivenes s o f

the MTEF programm e.

In the future, central and provincial level education authorities will

together ma nag e the pla nning a nd resource a lloc ation proc ess . The

ed uca tion pla n will inform the MTEF, which in turn will inform the a nnua l

bud ge t. The a nnual budg et w ill no long er be the principal res ourcea lloc a tion ins trument. G rad ua lly, the provinc ia l MTEF will come to p la y a n

impo rtant role in the reso urce a lloc a tion proces s . The MTEF, in turn, w ill

be dra wn up w ithin the framew ork of the p rovincial educ a tion plan. The

MTEF is the link betw een the long -term provincial educ a tion pla n a nd its

implementation through annual budgets.

TB S , TARG ETED B UDG ET S UP P ORT, is a means of focusing the use of

resources to achieve specific objectives of the education plan. For

example, improvements in accessibility and quality of primary education

may be formulated as a special programme and budget. Such

programming includes all related activities and budget, including teacher

training, the employment of teachers, construction and equipment for

schools, provision of teaching-learning materials to teachers and pupils,

a nd o ther inputs. The bud ge t a lloc a tion is ma de for the entire program me

in a distinct budget line (or an entire budget section) earmarked for this

programme.


17/133

As fo r MTEF, the p repa ration o f a multi-yea r prog ramme is e ssential for

the effectivenes s o f the TB S .

S WAp, S ECTOR-WIDE APP ROACH, is another form of government

efforts to modernize public sector management, particularly in theco ntext of joint g overnment-dono r ac tivities . S WAp provide s a fra mew ork

for government-donor co-operation aimed at increasing the cost-

effectivenes s o f the joint use o f government a nd d onor fina ncial res ource s

and enhancing the result and impact of programmes implemented with

joint funding.

The principal fea tures of the S WAp c onc ept a re tha t:

the government and donors together prepare and agree

on a sector (or sub-sector) development programme;

go vernment and donors put the financ ia l reso urces needed

for the implementa tion o f the program in a c ommo n funding

basket ;

the implementa tion o f the progra mme is the respo nsibility o f

the go vernment, no longer that of do nors.

MTEF a nd TB S prog ra mmes a re ste ps to wa rds a S WAp a pproch to

planning. As for MTEF, the prepa ration o f a multi-yea r prog ramm e is

essential for the effectiveness of the SWAp process.

Thes e new forms of planning a re often referred to a s a PROGRAMME-

BASED APPROACH (PBA) to planning.

1.2 Salient Features of Modern Education Planning

The mos t importa nt features o f mod ern educ a tion planning rela te to

dec entra liza tion a nd P BAs.

As part of the decentralization process, the functions and tasks at the

central level, i.e. of the Ministry of Education, increasingly focus on

sector-wide policy making and implementation monitoring. At the same

time, the Ministry is relieved of tasks related to the day-to-dayfunctioning of educational institutions. Central level management will

increasingly focus on responsibilities such as:

formula tion of educ a tion de velopme nt and reform strateg ies

a nd na tional educa tion pla ns;

monitoring of implementa tion o f na tiona l educa tion po licies,

plans and targets;

Decen tralization signific antly

changes functions and

tasks of the Ministry of

Education and of provincial

education authorities



18/133


ensuring the quality education (including curriculum

development, teacher training, student and teacher

performance);

a dvising provinces on result ma nag ement of ed uca tion, a nd

on c os t-effective utiliza tion o f res ource s.

The functions a nd ta sks o f provincial educa tion a uthorities a lso cha nge

quite significantly. Provincial education authorities have increased

responsibilities in areas such as:

resource allocation within the province, i.e. between different

sectors (health, transport, education, etc.) and within the

education sector between the dif ferent sub-sectors

(Pre-school, Primary Education, Secondary Education, etc.);

the negotiation of proposed provincial education budgets

with public funding sources at central level (the Ministry of

Finance, the Ministry of Planning, other ministries) and atthe provinc ia l level (provinc ia l go vernment);

the drawing up of medium-term provincial education plans;

se tting provincial ed uca tion se cto r priorities ;

monitoring the implementation of the provincial

educa tion plan;

prepa ring MTEFs;

preparation and implementation of targeted budget

support prog ra mmes;

implementation of large-scale programmes which the

Government is undertaking in co-operation with external

partners (such as Poverty Reduction and GrowthProgrammes, activities linked to the MDGs).

Decentralization of education sector management requires that central

authorities (the Ministry of Education, etc.) and provincial education

authorities apply a common approach to education planning and

implementation monitoring. Such common approaches should include

the planning concept, planning methodology and tools, planning

terminology, resource allocation criteria, monitoring criteria and

monitoring mechanisms.


19/133


A second important feature of the modernization of public sector

management in education relates to the use of programme-based

a pproa c hes fo r ed uca tion pla nning. Typica lly, w ithin a c ohe rent

framework, a programme comprises the following elements:

a n a nalysis of the present functioning o f the sec tor(situation analysis, sector analysis);

go als a nd ta rgets to be reac hed in the future;

a ss ess ment of the personnel, ma teria l a nd financ ial

reso urces req uired to a chieve the goa ls and targets;

a prioritized list of activities;

implementation mana gement a rrang ements;

implementation monitoring a rrang ements .

A programme can cover the entire sector or a specific sub-sector, or a

particular aspect of sector development, e.g. teacher training, curriculum

reform or quality improvement.

In order to render the modernization process possible and to make it

sustainable, two conditions will have to be fulfilled: (a) the external

partners will have to apply and operate within the education planning

a pproac h ap plied b y the c entral a nd provincial level educa tion a uthorities ,

and (b) the professional and technical knowledge of staff at the central

a nd provincial level must b e s treng thened to a llow them to fulfil their new

functions a nd c a rry out their new ta sks. The mod erniza tion proces s

req uires t hem to c ontribute a ctively to the s ha ping o f these new functions

(designing rules and guidelines), and to carry out new management tasks

in the areas of planning, programme preparation, and implementation.

Programme-b ased education

planning approaches require

external partners to wo rk

within the national programme

framework


20/133


21/133

2.1 General Features

Developing the functions of the Ministry of Education and of thedec entra lized provincial educa tion a uthorities req uires modern mana gement

capacity at both levels. At the central level, the Ministry of Education must

acquire the skills needed to:

help, advise, and strengthen the provinces in their education

planning;

ensure nationwide coherence and comparability of education

planning and implementation monitoring by ensuring that all

provinces apply the same planning approach, the same planning

techniques and planning tools, use the same type of data,apply the same terminology, and apply the same priority and

res ource a lloc a tion criteria ;

ens ure tha t the provincial educa tion plans effectively lea d to the

attainment of national goals and targets;

advise the Ministry of Finance and other central bodies

co ncerned on the a lloca tion of reso urces to the provinces for

the implementa tion o f the provincial educ a tion plans ;

advise provincial authorities in charge of the provincial budget

on the allocation of financial resources for education.

The provincial educa tion a uthorities need to d evelop a nd s usta in

modern provincial education planning and undertake modern plan

implementa tion. The s ta ff must a cq uire the s kills need ed to ma ste r all the

steps of this proc ess , co mprising:

preparing a modern provincial education plan;

monitoring the implementa tion of the pla n;

updating the plan in light of the monitoring results;

Mod ern management capacity

is needed at central level

(i) to advise the pro vincial

education authorities in their

education p lanning, and (ii) to

ensure nationwide coherence

and comparability of planning

and implementation monitoring

THE CONCEPT OF DECENTRALIZED

EDUCATION PLANNING

2


22/133

trans la ting the plan into MTEFs for the provinc ia l ed uca tion

sector; and

implementing the expenditure framework through annual

budgets.

Tog ethe r, c entra l level a nd provinc ia l leve l ed uca tion a uthorities w ill

mana ge the pla nning a nd resource a lloca tion proce ss .

2.2 National EFA Plans and Provincial Planning

The national educa tion plan conta ins a ll the goa ls a nd ta rgets tha t apply to

the country as a who le a nd for all educ a tion sub -sec tors. The national goa ls

and targets are national averages which summarize the diversity ofprovincial s itua tions . The e duc a tion situation a nd the likely future

development of education is not the same in all provinces. Hence, some

provinces may already be close to achieving the targets while other

provinces s till have a long way to g o. The implica tion o f this is tha t

provincial authorities, when they prepare their education plans, need to

adapt the national targets to the specific provincial situation. In most

countries, the national education plan is not the sum total of all provincial

plans. The na tiona l educa tion plan is prepa red first, and o nly then a re the

provincial plans prepared.

The na tiona l educ a tion plan informs the provincia l plans . The na tiona l (EFA)plan provides the framew ork and reference for the provincia l plans . The

provincial education plan:

adapts national targets to the particular provincial context;

se ts provincial priorities for targets and a ction programmes ;

orients provincial targets and priorities toward the attainment

of national targets.

The ed uca tion a uthorities will need to compile a co mprehensive a nd

coherent list of all goals and targets decided by the government that relate

to the development of the education sector. As a rule, most of these goals

and ta rgets will a lrea dy b e included in the Na tiona l Educa tion S ecto r P lan or

the EFA Plan, but some countries do not have such plans.

If this is the case, other official documents will contain the national

educa tional goa ls a nd targets. These do cuments ma y be ed ucation law s,

the education chapter in the national development plan or national poverty

reduction plan, a specific programme for the improvement of the quality of

education across all sub-sectors, or government decrees on norms and

standards in education, etc.

Even in co untries where a n ed uca tion s ec tor pla n or an EFA P lan exists , the

government will have made decisions in the course of plan implementation

which c oncern educa tion go als a nd ta rgets that a re not yet included in the

national plan. The educ a tion pla nner must be a wa re of this a nd a lwa ys

The national education plan

informs the pro vincial education

plans. It is the reference

framework for p rovincial plans

2: The Concept of Decentralized Education Planning


23/133


2.3 The Purposes and Principal Steps of Provincial

Education Planning

The proces s of preparing the provincial educa tion plan ha s severa l main

purposes and a number of principle steps.

Main Purposes

The ma in purpose s of provincial educ a tion planning a re:

to ensure that na tiona l educa t ion policies are effectively

implemented a nd tha t national goals and targets are reached;

to ensure that targets are set and reached which respond to

particular needs of the province;

to convince Ministries, provincial education authorities,

tea che rs a nd/or parents to implement ed uca tion reforms;

to convince the Ministry of Finance (and other public funding

sources) to provide the req uired funds ;

to mobilize private sector and community contribution,

particularly for education sub-sectors that are not compulsory

a nd not free (e.g S eco nda ry Educa tion a nd P re-school)

The planning methodology, i.e. the planning s teps and the planning to ols, a swell as the format and presentation of the plan are a function of these

purpos es and se rve to fulfil them.

Principal Steps

The princ ipa l s teps o f provincial educ a tion pla nning include:

P LANNING S TEP 1: S itua tion a na lys is

To obtain a comprehensive factual and analytical overview of the

present s ituation of eac h sub-secto r, the strengths a nd we a kness es of

each sub-sector, and the reasons for both.

P LANNING S TEP 2: Target sett ing

To set the targets to be reached during the planning period for:

access to education (enrolment);

quality (internal efficiency, exam success, pupil-t eacher ratio,

teaching and learning materials, fundamental schoo l quality

standards, etc .);

management (decentralization, teacher career, efficient

utilization of resources, etc.).

To assess the resource implications of the proposed targets (i.e. to

estimate the required number of teachers, classrooms, other facilities,


24/133

teaching-learning materials, in-service teacher training, etc, and

financial resources).

To assess the resource gap (i.e. the difference between resources

needed and resources that are likely to be available).

P LANNING S TEP 3: Ass es sment of propos ed ta rget fea sibility

To assess the feasibility of the propos ed targets in terms of:

the resources that a re likely to be availa ble;

management capacity needed and the capacity that is likely

to b e a vaila ble;

likely a cc epta nce by the principal sta keholders.

In cases where the feasibility of the proposed targets appears to be

uncertain, measures must be identified that are likely to ensure the

fea sibility of the ta rge ts. Thes e me a sures c ould include:

changing priorities;

changing targets;

reduc ing cos ts; a nd/or

mobilizing additional resources.

P LANNING S TEP 4: Identifica tion o f outline a ction prog rammes

To outline implementation action programmes.

P LANNNG S TEP 5: Draw ing up of fina ncing plan

To prepare the financing plan (i.e. to identify sources of funding to

fina nce the implementa tion o f the p la n).

P LANNING S TEP 6: Identifica tion of implementa tion monitoring indica tors

To evaluate progress made during plan implementation and to

provide information for revision of objectives and targets and for

upda ting the pla n.

P LANNING S TEP 7: Formulation o f the plan

To write the plan document and give it adequate layout.

2.4 Situation Analysis

The prepa ration of a comprehens ive overview of the present situation of the

education sector is the first step in the planning process. A situation

analysis reveals strengths and weaknesses and helps to identify their

causes, thereby pointing to possible solutions for which targets and action

programmes should be included in the plan.

The preparation of a situa tion a nalysis req uires relia ble da ta and a nalytica l

too ls . The a na lys is a nd projec tion mod el (ANPRO-Mod el) presented in this

Handbook is such a tool. An example of a situation analysis for the PrimaryEduca tion s ub-sec tor is shown in Annex I.



25/133

2.5 Target Setting

Targe t se tting is the mos t critica l step in the planning process . It ta kes

the form of a DIALOGUE PROCESS that involves all major stakeholders.

The ma jor s ta keholders include the Office o f the P rime Minis ter, the

Education Commission of Parliament, the Ministries, in particular the

Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Planning, provincial education

authorities, and representatives of teachers and parents.

The targets indica te in operationa l terms wha t needs to be reac hed by when

to ens ure tha t the policy goa ls w ill be a tta ined. For example, if the policy go a l

is to reac h Universa l P rima ry Educa tion b y 2014, then the ta rge ts a re: a ) that

sta rting in 2010, every child of a ge 6 sha ll enter G rade 1, and b) tha t by 2014,

all pupils who have entered Grade 1 shall have the possibility to complete

the full prima ry cycle.

Setting realistic targets and priorities requires a thorough understanding ofhow the education sub-sectors function at present and, in particular, how

resources a re used . It a lso req uires a clear understa nding o f wha t is the most

likely resource availability during the plan period, and how one can improve

the cost-efficiency of the resources used.

Targe ts must fulfil two cond itions :

the targets must respect the policy goals set by the

government (po licy decision makers), a nd

the targets must be feasible in terms of human, material, andfinancial resources, as well as in terms of implementation

mana gement ca pac ity.

A target that does not have the support of the decision makers and other

major stakeholders is not likely to be reached. Similarly, a target for which

the req uired resources a re not a vaila ble ca nnot be rea ched . The decision

of which targets to include in the education plan must be the result of

an extensive dialogue process between the policy level and the technical

planning level.

The d ia log ue is a n itera tive proces s in which:

first: the provincial educational authorities identify targets that

closely reflect the policy goals these are what above are

called the proposed targets ;

sec ond: the educa tion planners as sess the resources needed

to attain these proposed targets; and

third: the feasibility of the initial targets is discussed between

the education planners and the stakeholders (in particular, the

de cision-ma kers) in light of informa tion rega rding the a ss es se d

reso urce needs . If the dialog ue lea ds to the c onclusion that one

or more of the resources needed will not become available

to the extent and at the time at which they are needed

Provinc ial targets (i) must

respect national policy goals

and (ii) must be feasib le


Target setting is the m ost critical

step in the education p lanning

proc ess. It takes place in the

form of a dialogue betw een the

education secto r stakeholders


26/133


The proc es s is repea ted until ta rge ts ha ve been ide ntified tha t a re

considered to be feasible in terms of resources and are acceptable at

policy level.

The more the d ia log ue is ba sed o n reliable ana lys is and projec tion

information, and the more the stakeholders have the opportunity toparticipate in the dialogue, the higher the chances that the targets adopted

will be effectively attained.

The a na lys is a nd projec tion informa tion required by the ta rget-se tting

process is greatly facilitated by the availability of detailed information

pred icting the pos sible outcomes of a given target. The ANPR O-Mod el

presented in this Hand book is des igned to provide this kind of informa tion.

The proces s of ta rge t se tting is centra l to the mo derniza tion of ed uca tion

sector management. It builds the consensus that is required to achieve

reform and development of education.

2.6 Operational Areas

The planning proces s, the prepa ra tion of the plan do cument a nd the plan

document itself can be structured around three operational areas:

ACCESS QUALITY MANAG EMENT

Each operational area brings together the actions that have essentialfeatures in common in terms of goals, technical characteristics,

organizational aspects, principal actors and regulatory framework. Each

operational area requires its specific implementation approach.

ACC ESS co vers all a ctions req uired in order to atta in those targets which

a re d irec tly a imed a t ens uring tha t every child o f sc hool a ge is enrolled in

sc hool and ha s the pos sibility of c ompleting the full ed uca tion c yc le. The

operationa l a rea ACC ESS co mprises a ctions need ed to ensure that every

child enrolled in the first grade of the cycle stays in school for the entire

prima ry c ycle. The a ctions include c ons truction of s cho ols, provision of

teachers, provision of teaching and learning materials, and particularprovisions for s pec ific population groups s uch a s ethnic minority g roups .

QUALITY co mprise s a ll a ctions nee de d to a tta in thos e ta rge ts tha t a re

sp ec ifica lly a imed a t improving the q uality of ed uca tion. Thes e a ctions

concern curriculum development, teaching-learning materials, teacher

tra ining, s tudent a ss ess ment, a nd s pecial ac tions for spec ific popula tion

groups, etc.

MANAG EMENT conc erns a c tions tha t a re s pec ifica lly a imed a t improving

the ma na ge ment o f educ a tion a t a ll levels. This include s pla nning,

monitoring, and evaluation of resource utilization, information-basedde cision making, fina ncial pla nning, etc .


27/133


2.7 Action Programmes

The p rovincia l pla n outlines action programmes for the achievement of

major goals; for example, an action programme for in-service training, an

action programme for the application of fundamental school quality level

standards, an action programme for curriculum reform etc.

Action programmes identify and spell out what shall be undertaken, how

much o f it, by w hen, by who m, a nd ho w. They s pec ify verifia ble

implementation indica tors. They indica te the overall ma gnitude o f the

resources required (teachers, material, and financial resources, etc.).

An Example of Action Programmes is show in Annex II.

2.8 Monitoring

A continuous planning process is another key feature of modern sector

management. In the course of plan implementation, targets change.

S ome ta rgets may b e rea ched fa ster than foresee n while others ma y take

longer to achieve. Assumptions also change (for example, assumptions

concerning salary scale, construction unit cost, school-age population,

etc.). At regular intervals (every year if possible), the plan has to be adjusted

to ta ke these d evelopments into a cc ount.

Monitoring the implementation of the plan provides the information

req uired to upd a te the pla n. To e na ble monitoring to be ca rried outconsistently throughout the plan implementation period, the plan must

contain indicators against which the implementation progress can be

measured.

Regular updating of the plan based on information produced by

monitoring w ill res ult in a co ntinuous planning proces s a nd w ha t is in fac t

a rolling plan.

Monitoring information can be provided with the help of the

ANPRO-Model presented in this Handbook.

2.9 The Provincial Education Plan Document

The results of the various planning steps provide the inputs for the ac tual

provincia l educa tion plan doc ument. The plan do cument will be formula ted

on the ba sis of the a nalysis, projections, a ss ess ment of resource needs and

assessment of feasibility, all of which have been made at the different

planning steps. A possible outline of a medium-term provincial education

plan is shown on the following pages.


28/133


INTRODUCTION

i Coverage of the Plan (pre-school, primary, secondary, professional-technical secondary,teacher training, etc.; pub lic, non-p ublic).

ii Relationship between the provincial plan and the national plan (national goals and targets).

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYShort summary of:

i Socio-economic achievements, present situation and foreseen future development

of the province.

ii Education sector achievements, present situation (strength, issues/problems,

possible responses).

iii Education goals and targets of the province for plan period.

iv Implementation (in general, and for special programmes such as teacher training,

poverty reduction and growth programme, targeted budget support programs etc.).

PART I: THE CURRENT SITUATION SINCE 2000

CHAPTER 1: Provincial Socio-Economic Context Relevant to Education

i population (rural/urban, migration, ethnic groups, education achievement levels);

ii ec onom ic sec tors.

CHAPTER 2: Performance of the Education Sector Since 2000

2.1 Performance of the education sector as a wholePast development concerning: enrollment, gender, disadvantaged groups, community support,

costs, financing ,literacy levels, quality, external efficiency, relations with/support from Education

Ministry, external donors.

2.2 P erformance o f eac h educa tion sub -sector since 2000

i past development;

i i present strengths and reasons for them;

iii present issues/prob lems and their causes.

PART II: THE WAY FORWARD: Provincial Education Sector Development

CHAPTER 3: Challenges for the Plan PeriodIssues that must be addressed during the Plan period by sub- sector.

CHAPTER 4: Targets

4.1 Thrust o f the P la n

In terms of major goals and strategies for the development o f education in the province during

the Plan period.

4.2 Na tiona l targets

Targets contained in the National EFA Plan and in other go vernment docum ents, relevant to the

province, i.e. national targets which have to be translated into provincial targets for the education

plan of the province.

OUTLINE OF A MEDIUM-TERM PROVINCIAL EDUCATION PLAN


29/133


4.3 S pec ific provincial ta rge ts

Targets that are essential for the province but w hich are not among the national target.

CHAPTER 5: Action Programmes

An outline of major programmes to b e carried out d uring the Plan period in order to reach thegoals and targets.

5.1 Sector-wide programmes

5.2 Programmes for each sub-sector

CHAPTER 6: Costs and Financing of the Education Plan

6.1 Costs of implementing the Plan

Summary overview of the cost estimates.

6.2 Financing the Plan

i identification of funding gaps;ii identification of ways to close the funding gap;

iii overview of the sources of funding.

CHAPTER 7: Implementation of the Education Plan

7.1 Ma na ge ment o f pla n implementa tion a t the provincial level

7.2 S upport nee ded from na tiona l institutions (Educa tion Ministry, etc .)

7.3 Revisions to regulatory framew ork at provincial a nd na tiona l level

7.4 Integration of external (international) programmes and projects

7.5 Implementation indicators

PART III: ANNEXES

Annex I: List o f goa ls a nd ta rge ts, w ith indica tion of their so urce

Annex II: The provincia l Ana lys is a nd P rojec tion (ANPRO) Mod el


30/133


31/133

3.1 General Features

Modern education planning is data-based; it simply cannot be done

without the availability of data. It requires analytical and projected

information. Information is required throughout the planning process. It is

es se ntia l for the situation a na lys is (pla nning ste p 1), for the ta rge t s etting

process (planning steps 2, 3, 5, 6), for the formulation of action

programmes (planning step 4), for implementation monitoring (planning

ste p 7), a nd for the formula tion o f the ed uca tion plan (pla nning ste p 8).

In order to produce ana lysis da ta a nd ma ke projections that are integral

to the pla nning proces s, the planner needs a da ta ma nag ement tool. The

planning concept presented in this Handbook includes such a planning

too l in the form of a n a na lysis a nd p rojec tion mo de l, the ANP RO-Mod el.

The a pproac h used in this mo de l wa s o riginally deve lope d a s a tool for

EFA planning that was applied by several countries in the region toward

the design of national EFA Plans.1 A particularly extensive application of

this model approach was made in Viet Nam, where it was used for the

preparation of the National EFA Action Plan 2003-2015. After the

national plan was approved by the Prime Minister and became the

Vietnamese Governments official education policy and strategy

fra mewo rk, Viet Nam used the model approac h to d esign, test a nd a pply

a d ec entralized provincial educa tion pla nning a pproac h. This a pproac h

went beyond the four EFA sub-sectors to include all education

sub-sectors under decentralized provincial management authority,starting with pre-school, primary, all of secondary, teacher training, and

non-formal education.2 This we a lth of experienc e, tog ether with a ra nge

of other country experiences in the region, is now reflected in this

Handbook and, in particular, in the ANPRO-Model.

THE ANALYSIS AND PROJECTION

MODEL (ANPRO-MODEL)

TheANPRO-Modelis a

practical tool for data

analysis and p rojections

1 The planning concept in this Handbook is based on the concept contained in the EFA Planning Guide Southeastand East Asiapublished by UN ESC O , P rincipal Regional O ffice, B angkok in 2001. The concept and the tools outlinedwithin have been further developed for capacity building in decentralized education planning.

The EFA planning approach and the AN PR O -M odel, however, have a much longer history. The origin of the Modelwas designed and applied in the late 1980s. O ver the years, it has been applied in many countries in different

3


32/133

Other models exist. Many of these, however, are not comprehensive

mod els. Typica lly, they c onta in a na lys is a nd projec tions for only a

particular sub-sector or a particular programme or project (e.g. gender

promotion, curriculum development, a programme for improving

education quality, etc.). Comprehensive and coherent education sector

pla nning mod els a re s till the excep tion.

There are also Ed uca tion Mana ge ment Informa tion S ys tem (EMIS )

mod els. Thes e mod els dea l w ith sta tistica l informa tion of the pa st a nd

present, but EMIS models are not planning and projection models;

how ever, EMIS mod els provide indisp ensa ble and e ss entia l da ta inputs to

education planning.

There a re a lso other genuine planning mo de ls tha t loo k different from the

ANPRO-Model. However, whatever the differences in layout and country

specificity, the very nature of the education sector, and thus of education

planning, inevitab ly leads to the sa me kind o f model a pproa ches .

All planning models must serve the same information needs and what is

ba sica lly the s a me planning a pproac h in a ll co untries w orldw ide . The

advantage of the approach in this Handbook is the fact that both the

ap proa ch a nd the Model are b as ed on recent experience in the region. It

is the result of a largely nationally-driven process of decentralized,

provincial educ a tion planning; henc e, it res pond s to na tiona lly-perce ived

planning needs .

The ANPRO-Model ca n b e us ed for pla nning for the entire e duc a tion

sector or for any one of the education sub-sectors. Similarly, it can beapplied to the preparation of a national plan as well as for the

prepa ra tion of p rovincial pla ns.

The ANP RO-Mod el is de signed to p rovide informa tion tha t is need ed to

a cc omplish the planning proc es s. The Model provide s e ss entia l a na lytica l

and projection data which are required in the course of the planning

proce ss a nd a lso during plan implementation. The d ata produc ed by the

ANP RO-Model a re need ed for:

analysis of how the education sub-sectors function

a t prese nt;

identification of possibilities for improving the functioning of

the sub-sectors through different (more cost-efficient)

utilization of resources;

projections of likely future developments of major

components of the sub-sectors;

projections of the resources needed to attain the goals

and ta rgets;

assessment of the feasibility of these goals and targets

in terms of human, material and financial resources;

the setting of implementation priorities;

the s etting of indica tors for mo nitoring pla n implementa tion.

TheANPRO-Modelresponds

to education planning needs

perceived in countries at

central and provincial level.

The Model is based on

conc rete coun try experience

3: The Analysis and Projection M odel


33/133


Specific analytical tools that are linked to the Model allow the user to

chec k the c onsistency a nd va lidity of the b a seline da ta, of the projection

assumptions, and of the targets. Similarly, data can easily be extracted

and presented in convenient ways for inclusion in official speeches,

reports, research studies, etc. (for details, see Handbook Sections 6 and 7).

The ANPRO-Mode l is de s igned in Exce l a nd is s imple to use . The

ANPRO-Model is not a generic model; instead, it is a template that can

ea sily be a da pted to spec ific c ountry situations.

The ANPRO-Model uses existing d a ta ; therefore, it do es not req uire

expensive a nd c omplex new da ta collection ac tivities.

The ANP RO-Mod el is a n insta nt too l for dia log ue between stakeholders

at the provincial level and also between provincial education authorities

and centra l authorities on issues of future provincial educa tion d evelopment.

More specifically, the Model may introduce dialogue regarding prioritiesa nd ta rgets , reso urce ga ps a nd the o ptimiza tion of resources , a nd/or the

functioning of the individua l sub-sec tors.

There a re tw o types of us ers o f the ANPR O-Mod el: (1) the education

planners who work with the model and produce the analysis and

projection information needed by (2) the decision makers . The know led ge

of the planners and the decision makers complements each other and

must be sha red in order to w ork together efficiently.

Thos e w orking with the ANPRO-Model must ha ve a go od wo rking

knowledg e o f Microso ft Excel. They s hould a lso be familia r with mode rneducation planning techniques and terminology. Moreover, it is essential

to have experience and a good understanding of the functioning of the

education sub-sectors in their province and in the country as

a whole.

The de cision ma kers w ho use the informa tion produc ed by the Model are

those who are responsible for the preparation of education policy

de cisions. They a re in cha rge of de termining plan ta rge ts a nd they ma ke

de cisions tha t influence the implementa tion o f the plan. The d ec ision

makers use the analysis and projection information produced by

the Model, but they d o not need to know themselves how to w ork with it.

3.2 Main Technical Features of the ANPRO-Model

The ANPRO-Mod el comprises s ix sp ec ific sub-sector models covering

the entire range of provincial education sub-sectors:

S UB -SECTOR MODEL 1 Pre-school (ECCE) sub-sector

(ages 3 to 5);

S UB -SECTOR MODEL 2 P rima ry Educa tion s ub-sector;

S UB -SECTOR MODEL 3 Secondary Education sub-sector;

TheANPRO-Modelis an

instant tool for dialogue


34/133

S UB -SECTOR MODEL 4 P re-se rvice Tea cher Training

sub-sector;

S UB -SECTOR MODEL 5 Professional Secondary Education

sub-sector; and

S UB -SECTOR MODEL 6 Non-Forma l Educa tion (NFE)

sub -sec tor (a ge s 15-34).

The sub -sec tor models a re interlinked , but ea ch of them ca n also b e used

separately. For example, the number of new entrants into Secondary

Education (Grade 7) is automatically taken from the Primary Education

sub -sec tor Mod el (G ra de 6).

Eac h of the sub -sector models comprises four sub-models:

PUPIL sub-model for intake, enrolment, internal

efficiency, output;

TEAC HER s ub-mo de l for total number of teachers,recruitment needed (by level and

by type) and clas ses and schools;

REC URRENT EXPENDITURE for perso nnel, tea ching-lea rning

sub-model materials, in-service teacher training,

a rang e of s pecial activities a nd

prog ra mmes (suc h a s curriculum

development, programmes for

special target groups, etc.);

C AP ITAL EXPENDITUR E for construction, equipment,

sub-model major repairs.

For Sub-sector Model 1 (Pre-school), Sub-sector Model 2 (Primary

Education), and Sub-sector Model 3 (Secondary Education), pupil

projections a re ma de sepa rately for public a nd private sc hools.

A separate sheet, Sheet 12: Gender Scenario, further breaks down the

Model according to gender for Pre-school, Primary and Secondary

Education.

ANNEX III contains a printout of essential parts of the ANPRO-Model

comprising the following Model Sheets:

S hee t 1: Title of the Mod el

S heet 2: Ta ble of Conte nts o f the Mod el

S hee t 3: S umma ry of All P rinc ipa l Ta rgets

Sheet 4: Summary of Expenditure Projections

S heet 6: Primary Educa tion S ub-sector Mode l

A working version of the complete Model is provided on the CD-ROM

included with the Handbook.

TheANPRO-Modelcontains

a specific gender com ponent



35/133


The ANPRO-Model Excel file comprises 12 Sheets as listed below:

Name of the sheet

SHEET1: Title

Principal information contained in the Sheets

Cover Pa ge

SHEET2: Contents Ta ble of C ontents of the Mod el (with hyperlinks to e a ch o f

the sub-sector models)

SHEET3: Targets S umma ry of the P rincipa l Provincial Ta rge ts

SHEET4: Exp Summ Summa ry of expenditures from the s ub-secto r models

SHEET5: Preschool Analysis and projection of the Pre-school Education

sub-sector: enrolment, internal efficiency, teachers, financial

reso urce requirements, etc.

SHEET6: Primary Analysis and projection of the Primary Education sub-sector: enrolment,

internal efficiency, teachers, financial resource requirements, etc.

Enrolment projection is done separately for public and private school

sys tems, w hile tea cher and other reso urce req uirements are projected for

public schools only.

SHEET7: Secondary Analysis and projection of S eco nda ry sub-sec tor: enrolment,

internal efficiency, teachers, financial resource requirements etc.

Enrolment projection is done separately for public and private

school systems, while teacher and other resource

requirements are projected for public schools only.

SHEET8: TT P rojec tion of the P re-S ervice Tea che r Training sub -sec tor:

enrolment a nd g radua tes, recurrent a nd c apital expenditure.

SHEET9: In-SceTrg S umma ry of a ll In-Service Tea ch er Training projec tions

contained in Sheets 5, 6, and 7.

SHEET10: Prof P rojec tion of the Tec hnical-Voc a tiona l S ec ond a ry sub -sec tor:

enrolment a nd g radua tes, recurrent a nd c apital expenditure.

MODEL SHEET11: NFE Projection of Non-Formal Education sub-sector activities:1) P rimary a nd S econd ary (G rades 7 to 9 equivalency programmes;

2) literacy programmes for young adults.

SHEET12: Girls Enrolment projection of formal general education (Pre-school,

P rimary a nd S econd ary) for girls.


36/133


ACCESS RATE TO PRE-SCHOOLS (Age 3, 4 & 5 separately)

POPULATION PROJECTION

PUPIL / CLASS RATIO

TEACHER / CLASS RATIO

SPECIAL PROGRAMMES EXPENDITURE

NON-TEACHING STAFF AND

PRINCIPALS PER SCHOOL

Structure of Pre-School (ECCE) Sub-Sector Model

POPULATION

Age 3

POPULATION

Age 4

POPULATION

Age 5

ENROLMENT BY AGE

TEACHERS

(Staff and Temporary)NON-TEACHING STAFF and

SCHOOL PRINCIPALS

Recurrent Expenditure

SALARIES & ALLOWANCES

PUPIL & SCHOOL RELATED EXP.

(school utilities, toys, games, teacher training/workshop,..)

Capital Expenditure

CLASSROOM CONSTRUCTION

& REPAIR

OTHER CAPITAL

EXPENSES

TOTAL EDUCATION

EXPENDITURE

PUPIL

SUB-MODEL

TEACHER

SUB-MODEL

EXPENDITURE

SUB-MODEL

Structure of Primary Education Sub-Sector Model

POPULATION PROJECTION

POPULATION OFSCHOOL ENTRANCE AGE

(Age 6)

ACCESS RATE TO G-1

INTERNAL EFFICIENCY(Promotion, Repetition

and Drop-out rates)

ENROLMENT BY GRADE(GRADES 1-6 & GRADUATES)

PUPIL / CLASS RATIOTEACHER / CLASS RATIO

TEACHERS(Standard and Non-Standard)

Recurrent Expenditure Capital Expenditure


PUPIL & SCHOOL RELATED EXP.(school utilities, textbooks, teacher training/workshop,..)


NON-TEACHING STAFF ANDPRINCIPALS PER SCHOOL

NON-TEACHING STAFF ANDSCHOOL PRINCIPALS

CLASSROOMCONSTRUCTION & REPAIR

OTHER FACILITIES(library, computers, etc...)

TOTAL EDUCATIONEXPENDITURE

EXPENDITURESUB-MODELS

TEACHERSUB-MODEL

PUPILSUB-MODEL

The follow ing six figures illustrate the ma in c ompo nents a nd the structure o f ea ch o f

the six sub-sector models of the ANPRO-Model:

Figure 1. Sub-Sector Model 1: Pre-School (ECCE)

Figure 2. Sub-Sector Model 2: Primary Education


37/133


Structure of Secondary Education Sub-Sector Model

PRIMARY GRADUATES(SUCCESSFUL COMPLETERS)

TRANSITION RATEPRIMARY SECONDARY

ENROLMENT BY GRADE & GRADUATES(Grades 7 to 12 & G.12 successful completers)

INTERNAL EFFICIENCY(Promotion, Repetition

and Drop-out rates)

Orientation to:Professional Sec.Teacher Training

NON-TEACHING STAFF ANDPRINCIPALS PER SCHOOL

PUPIL / CLASS RATIOTEACHER / CLASS RATIO

TEACHERS

(Standard and Non-Standard)



PUPIL & SCHOOL RELATED EXP.(school utilities, textbooks, teacher training/workshop,..)


NON-TEACHING STAFF AND

SCHOOL PRINCIPALS

Capital Expenditure

CLASSROOMCONSTRUCTION & REPAIR

OTHER FACILITIES(library, computers, etc...)


EXPENDITURESUB-MODELS

TEACHERSUB-MODEL

PUPILSUB-MODEL

Structure of Teacher-Training Sub-Sector Model

Teacher Training Schools and Colleges for:

PRE-SCHOOL & PRIMARY(9+3 & 12+2)

SECONDARY(12+3)

INTAKE RATE & INTAKE CAPACITY IN THE PROVINCE+ Orientation from Secondary (Grades 9 and 12)

Internal Efficiency (Grade Progression Rate)

ENROLMENT BY GRADE & GRADUATES(Year-1 to Year-2/3)


AVERAGE RECURRENTEXPENDITURE PER PUPIL

BY GRADE

AVERAGE CAPITALEXPENDITURE PER PUPIL

Capital Expenditure


EXPENDITURESUB-MODEL

PUPIL

SUB-MODEL

Figure 3. Sub-Sector Model 3: Secondary Education

Figure 4. Sub-Sector Model 4: Teacher-Training


38/133


Structure of Professional Seconday Education Sub-Sector Model

SECONDARY GRADE 9GRADUATES

SECONDARY GRADE 12GRADUATES

ORIENTATION FROM

SECONDARY SUB-SECTOR MODEL

ACCESS RATE OF SECONDARY

GRADE 12 GRADUATES

Internal Efficiency (Progression Rates)

ENROLMENT BY GRADE & GRADUATES

SEC. Gr.9 Year-1, Year-2, Year-3/

SEC. Gr.12 Year-1, Year-2 (and optional Year-3)

SHORT COURSES

(< 1 year)

Enrolment

(& growth)


AVERAGE RECURRENTEXPENDITURE PER PUPIL

BY GRADE

AVERAGE CAPITALEXPENDITURE PER PUPIL

INCOME FROM SCHOOL

PRODUCTS AND SERVICES

TOTAL EDUCATION

EXPENDITURE

EXPENDITURE

SUB-MODEL

PUPIL

SUB-MODEL

Structure of NFE Sub-Sector Model

PRIMARY

DROP-OUTS (Age 6-11)

SECONDARY (Gr.7-9)

DROP-OUTS (Age 12-14)

ADULT LITERACY

PROGRAM (Age 15-34)

INTAKE RATE OF RESPECTIVE PROGRAMME IN THE PROVINCE

AVERAGE RECURRENT

EXPENDITURE PER

PARTICIPANT BY PROGRAMME

OTHER PROGRAMME AND

ADMINISTRATIVE SUPPORT

EXPENDITURE FOR NFE/CE

CONSTRUCTION EXPENDITURE

FOR DLCs

NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS IN EACH PROGRAMME

TOTAL NFEEXPENDITURE


PUPILSUB-MODEL

EXPENDITURESUB-MODEL

Figure 5. Sub-Sector Model 5: Professional Secondary Education

Figure 6. Sub-Sector Model 6: Non-Formal Education


39/133


40/133

4.1 Variables of the Model

The ANP RO-Mod el use s two types of va ria bles:

DEPENDENT VARIABLES, also called RESULT VARIABLES, which are the result of

ca lculations ma de b y the Mod el. They sho w the results tha t wo uld b e ob ta ined if the

dec isions set b y the independent va riab les were to be a pplied.

INDEPENDENT VARIABLES, also called DECISION VARIABLES, can be decided and se t

throug h a policy de cision or an a dministra tive d ec ision. The inde pend ent va ria bles mus t

be entered into the ANP RO-Model from so urces outside the Model. The ANPRO-Mod el

ma kes use of three types of independent va ria bles: ba seline da ta varia bles, a ss umptions

varia bles a nd ta rget varia bles.

The characteristics of the independent variables a re a s follow s:

BASELINE DATA are independent variables that constitute the starting point for projections.

The b a se yea r is the ye a r immed ia tely prec ed ing the first projec tion ye a r.

ASSUMPTIONS are independent variables for the projec tion yea rs. They c onc ern technica l

co mponents s uch as ba se s a la ries, c onstruction unit cos ts, s chool ag e popula tion, teac her a ttrition

rates , etc . Their value is the res ult of fa cto rs inde pend ent o f the d ec ision of the pla nner. The planner

is no t free to cho os e their va lue. Thes e va lues must b e ta ken from o fficial doc uments (for examp le:

school-age p opulation project ions, the salary scale, contraction unit costs).

ALL TARGETS are independent variables . They a re d ec ide d by provincial and na tiona l a uthorities .

The va lues of the ta rge ts a re entered into the Model. They a re not c a lculated by the Model

(for example: let us a ss ume that the present s cena rio ha s a teac her/class ratio of 1.0 a nd tha t the

ta rge t se t by the po licy ma kers is to rea ch a tea che r/clas s ra tio o f 1.5 by the yea r 2010. The result

variable will then be the number of teachers needed, both the additional number of teachers

needed a nd the tota l number of teac hers need ed. This ta kes into a cc ount other fac tors tha t have a

direc t impa ct on the numb er of tea che rs need ed suc h a s pupil enrolment, pupil/clas s ratio, a ttrition

rate of tea chers, etc.).

Independent variab les ca n be changed. It is possible to change only a single variable and assess

the impact of this change on all result variables. Alternatively, one can change several decisionvariables at the same time in order to look at the impact that these combined changes have on all

res ult varia bles. This ma kes it pos sible to a ss es s the importanc e of ea ch a ss umption a nd/or target

HOW TO USE THE ANPRO-MODEL

4


41/133

Independe nt (or decision) variab les ca n be c hang ed for any yea r of the projection period . This a llow s

simula ting a d-hoc p olicy c ha nges (by c ha nging targets a nd/or as sumptions) tha t could take pla ce in

any year during the plan period. It also allows updating of the plan and may allow the introduction

of a rolling plan.

4.2 How to Make Projection Scenarios

Proceed as follows:

1: Become familiar with the structure and the contents of theANPRO-Model.

Refer back to Section 3 to review the general features of the Model;

Browse through the Model to obtain an overview of all 12 Sheets;

Open each Sheet to see what is contained in each.

2: Set up your own title sheet (Sheet 1, called Title).

At the c entre of this S heet , ove rwrite the la be l Temp la te ANPRO-Mode l w ith

the name of your province;

Wherever the da te a ppea rs a s a lab el in this S heet, cha nge it to the a ppropria te da te

(the date on which you are creating your scenario).

3: Save the Model under a new name.

Use a name tha t indica tes the Model na me, the name of your province a nd the da te,

e.g . ANPR O Model XYZ Province (30 February 2005). La ter in the course of yo ur

work, you should indicate each time you create another version by saving

under a new name, e.g. changing the date, as in ANPRO Model XYZ Province

(10 March 2005).

4: On the first page of the sub-sector Model Sheet, list the objectives and the targets

which are to replace the ones in the TEMPLATE ANPRO-Model.

5: List independent and dependent variables.

On the second page of each sub-sector Sheet, list the independent variables

(de cision va ria bles) and de pend ent va ria bles (res ult va ria bles).

6: Enter the baseline data.

Enter the baseline data in the appropriate tables (i.e. replace the data of the

TEMPLATE Model with your own da ta ).

B a seline da ta a re sta tistical data . These d ata a re entered in theYELLOW cells for the

ba se yea r. The figures a ppea r in BLUE.

B a seline da ta are independe nt variab les that a llow your pla nning to have a sta rting p oint.

The b a se yea r is the ye a r immed ia tely prece ding the first projec tion ye a r.

4: How to Use the Anpro-Model

B efo re sta rting to w ork with the TEMPLATE ANPRO-Mod el, you mus t

SAVE THE MODEL UNDER A NEW NAME

While working with your Model,

SAVE FREQUENTLYin order to avoid losing your work!


42/133

It is essential that the data for the base year are consistent. If the results of Model

calculations for the base year show inconsistencies, it means that some of your

baseline data are not accurate. If this is the case, you should go back to the source of

your bas eline da ta a nd c heck the da ta; however, the principa l purpos e of the b a seline

da ta is to p rovide the s ta rting point for your projec tions . Their purpos e is no t to co rrec t

data of the past .

7: Enter the targets.

Enter the targets in the appropriate tables (i.e. replace the target figures of

the TEMPLATE Mode l with thos e o f yo ur province).

ALL TARG ETS a re indep end ent va ria bles . The ta rgets a re the res ult of the ta rge t s etting

dialogue process (see S ec tion 2.5). They a re d ec ided by provincial and national a uthorities .

Note! Thes e ta rge ts a re entered into the Mod el. They a re not c a lculated by the Mod el.

In the Model Sheets, the targets are entered in

Thes e figures a ppe a r in RED.

8: Enter the assumptions.

Enter the a ss umptions in the a ppropria te ta bles (i.e. repla ce the a ss umption figures

of the TEMPLATE Mode l with thos e o f your province).


Double line-framed cells or columns

Year

Year

2004/05 (b a se ye ar)

2005/06 (pro je c tio n)





(basel ine data) 18

20

22

24

26

28

2010/2011 (projection) 30

Pupil / Class

Ta rge ts


43/133

Ass umptions a re indep ende nt varia bles tha t a re de cided outs ide the Model. They

concern, for example, the salary scale (provided by the Finance Department of the

province, as set by the government), school-age population projections (provided by the

Central Statistical Office), construction unit costs and other unit costs for material inputs

(such a s textbooks, labo ra tory eq uipment, etc .).

In the Model Sheets, the a ss umptions are a lso entered in

Thes e figures a ppe a r in RED.

9: Check the coherence of the baseline data.

Look a t the S ummary Ta bles a t the be ginning o f eac h S heet to s ee w hether your

baseline data entry gives coherent results. If not, go back to the source of thebaseline data, re-check the figures, and enter new, correct figures into the Model.

10: Check the consistency of the targets.

Look at the S ummary Ta bles a t the beg inning of ea ch S heet a nd a t Model S heet 3:

P rinciple Ta rge ts to c hec k whe ther the ta rge ts a ppea r rea so na ble and co herent. If

they do not, adjust the targets until you get a more reasonable pattern of targets.

The a na lytica l tool pres ented in S ec tion 6.3 w ill help you to do this.

11: Check the consistency of the assumptions.

Look at each table that contains assumptions to check whether they are

rea so nab le. If not, go ba ck to the s ource of the a ss umption figures a nd ma ke s uretha t you e ntered the figures c orrec tly.

The a na lytica l tool pres ented in S ec tion 6.3 w ill help you to do this.

12: Enter baseline data, assumptions and targets for special recurrent and capital

expenditure items and for administrative support.

In Sheet 4: ExpSumm (expenditure summary for all sub-sectors), enter the

ba seline da ta, the a ss umptions a nd the targets for the follow ing ta bles:

ES.7 Recurrent Expenditure for Educa tion S upport Facilities

ES .8 Ca pita l Expenditure for Educa tion S upport Fac ilities

ES .9 Administra tive S upport

You have now created your own Model with your own baseline data, assumptions and targets.

The TEMPLATE ANPRO-Model has now become the specific PROVINCIAL ANPRO-Model.


REMEMBER!

EACH TIME you have finished working w ith a S heet or a s tep,

SAVE YOUR FILE!

Double line-fra med ce lls or c olumns


44/133

4.3 How to Make Alternative Scenarios

Proceed as follows:

1. SAVE THE FILE WITH A NEW NAME! Do not work with the orig ina l file! Work only w ith

the file that was saved under the new name.

2. DRAW UP a list of alternative objectives and identify alternative TARGETS needed to

rea chthem . Ma ke sure tha t your ta rge ts a re indep end ent varia bles (de cision varia bles) a nd

not result varia bles (ca lculat

decentralized education planning

Documents