December 2011 Status UpdateEd Quitoriano

GUNSThe Illegal Trade in Small Arms and Light

Weapons

Hypothesis of the Study

• Illegal trade and proliferation of firearms undermine state building and prolong the duration of conflicts

• Sub-hypothesis 1: illegal trade and proliferation of firearms undermines state function in providing protection and policing against crime

• Sub-hypothesis 2: illegal trade and proliferation of firearms undermines state functions in providing welfare to its citizens

Research Questions

• How illegal trade in firearms shaped and is shaped by the conflict

• Link of illegal trade in firearms to state building

• Violence and protection and the functions of illegal and licensed firearms

• Illegal trade in firearms and state functions in protection and citizens’ welfare

Theoretical Framework

• Kalyvas (2006) theory of civil war violence (selective violence)• The importance of collaboration and corresponding

dilemmas when sovereignty is fragmented (mutual presence of state and non-state armed actors)

• The importance of control to maintain collaboration and prevent defection

• The role of selective violence in maintaining control• Local cleavages and individual agency in selective violence

(privatization of violence)• Role guns in reinforcing selective violence and fragmentation

of sovereignty

Civil War Violence and Quotable Quotes

• “This is a political war and it calls for discrimination in killing. The best weapon for killing would be a knife but I’m afraid we can’t do it that way. The worst is an airplane. The next worst is artillery. Barring a knife, the best is a rifle – you know who you’re killing. – John Paul Vann, US Adviser in Vietnam

• “People talk and people die.” – Eamon Collins, former IRA cadre

• “What kills directly is the tongue.” – Nicaraguan officer

Methods Applied

• Literature review• Secondary data collection (statistical data)• Life history – ‘conversations’; but in actual field

conduct ‘mediated conversations’ due to issues of trust and security; also, “no names” preconditions of the life history tellers

• The researcher mobilized third parties who are previously known to and trusted by the life history tellers

Limitations/Challenges in Data Collection

• Reliability of official statistics on illegal firearms

• Inter-operability of the system of legal and illegal trade in firearms; porosity of legal, black and grey markets

• The cumulative unknown since World War II proliferation of weapons

Collected Data (1)

• Life histories: broker, facilitator-transporter, gun collector, legal traders/importers, media-observer, gun shop owners

• Registered/Licensed Firearms: 1990-2007 and 2010 (national figures)

• 1990-2007 trend in legal purchases (highest during 1996 peace agreement, lowest during 2000 war in Mindanao)

• 2010 regional distribution of licensed and loose firearms

Collected Data (2)

• Latest Small Arms Survey 2009, 2010• Global black market of firearms• Trafficking, smuggling of firearms and the global economy• International legal framework on firearms trade• International arms trade• ‘how to’ guide in small arms trade• Profiles of ‘merchants’ of death• Evolution of the firearms legal framework of the Philippines

End Users

Trader

Supplier

Supply Side

Demand Side

Trader’s Intermediary

Freelance Intermediary

Buyer’s Intermediary

Structure of the Illegal Trade in Firearms(Gathered from Life Histories)

Non-Hierarchical Bargaining Field

Legal and Illegal Structures of Protection

Legal Inventory

Illegal Inventory

Illegal Supply Black &

GreyMarkets

Brokers

MILF

Politicians

Business Elites

Crime Syndicates

CPP-NPA

Conflict Fields

Private Individuals

Security Agencies

System of the Illegal Trade in Firearms

(Gathered from Life Histories)

Financial Incentives

Profit Margins and Rents from Protection

Multifunctional and Multi-directional Demand Structure

The Function-Based Incentive Structure in Illegal Firearms Trade

(Gathered from Life Histories)

Black & Grey Markets

Supply Side

Demand Side

Rents from protectionCash conversion of inventoryRecycling of recovered loose firearmsForce multiplier for state security functionsStrengthen power of local elitesIncremental price gains in transactions

private protectionPower projection Leverage in political bargainingEnhancement of belligerency claim Economic protectionMilitary (force) multiplierFill gaps in state protection

Registered/Licensed Firearms, 1990-2008PNEMO 6= Presidential National Emergency Memorandum Order No. 6 of 1990; PNEMO 6 cancelled licenses of all registered firearms. The 1994 Amnesty Program offered to legitimize all loose firearms.

19901991

19921993

19941995

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20080

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

Firearms Data (1990-2008)

Registered before PNEMO 6

Licensed under Amnesty Program

Licensed, Purchased from Gun DealersWhere have they gone?

Licensed Guns Purchased from Gun Dealers, 1990-2007Cumulative Total:752,752

19901991

19921993

19941995

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20080

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

Licensed and Purchased from Gun Dealers

GRP-MNLF Peace Agreement

GRP All Out War against the MILF

Distribution of Loose and Licensed Firearms, Philippines, as of 2010

1.39 million (73%)(1.1 million or 80% in NCR)

148,900 (8%)

358,250 (19%)

Loose Firearms:1,905,679 (67.3%)

Licensed Firearms:929,034 (32.7%)

675,26972.6%( 270,822 or 30% in NCR)

119,747(12.8%)

134,018(14.4%)

Total Firearms:2,834,713

2.06 million

268,647

492,268

Increasingly armed population (Philippines): Licensed firearms density, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2008

Philippines

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

19901995200020052008129:1 76:1

65:1

61:1

56:1

Loose Firearms and Crime, Philippines, as of 2010

3,030 (99.6%)

1,321 (99.6%)

1,528 (98.4%)

Loose Firearms Used:6,035 (99.3%)

Licensed Firearms Used: 40

11

5

25

Crime Incidents: 5,779Firearms Used: 6,075

Crime Incidents: 2,997

Firearms Used: 3,041

Crime Incidents: 1,292

Firearms Used:1,326

Crime Incidents: 1,490

Firearms Used:1,553

Distribution of Loose and Licensed Firearms in Mindanao, as of 2010

32%

17%

14%

12%13%

12%

20,203 FAs

42,231 Fas(61% of total in the region)

62,718 Fas(74% of total in the region)

Philippines 2010: 1 Loose Firearm per 49 persons

Licensed:134,018(27%)

Loose:358,250(73%)

Total:492,268

114,189 Fas(85% of total in the region)

26,514 FAs

22, 210 FAs

R10 Total:68,745

ARMM Total:134,392

R12 Total:84,928

44.5% of all firearms in Mindanao are in ARMM and Central Mindanao

Citizens’ Access to Firearms in Mindanao

Northern Mindanao

Central Mindanao

ARMM

102:1

65:1

31:1

164:1

184:1

176:1

Population : Firearm Ratio (2010)

Loose Licensed

How and where else to buy?

By SMS or Mobile Phone Online

Initial Findings (1)• Illegal firearms density bigger than what is officially known (unknown

cumulative effect since World War II)• Sub-national (regional) bias in illegal firearms distribution; at national

level, concentration in NCR; at Mindanao level, concentration in ARMM

• Tolerance of the legal and institutional framework to gun possession and illegal trade in firearms

• Close association between legal and illegal trade through the black and grey markets

• Significant role of hidden structures within the state in the proliferation of the illegal trade in firearms

• Weak, if not absent, legislative oversight on firearms trade (legal and illegal)

Initial Findings (2)• Crimes and Guns: 99% of gun-related crimes are with the use of loose firearms

(both at national and sub-national levels)• Dichotomy in guns: licensed gun to protect; unlicensed gun to kill• The volume of firearms in the hands of the civilian population (2.8 million

firearms) is 5 times bigger than the firearms in the hands of the security forces• At the national level, there are 2 loose firearms for every licensed firearm• At the Mindanao level, there are 2.6 loose firearms for every licensed firearm• At the ARMM level, there are 5.6 loose firearms for every licensed firearm• In the ARMM, the total number of firearms (licensed and illegal) could arm 10

Army Divisions• At the national level, the firearms in the hands of citizens could equip an army of

2.8 million combatants

Initial Findings (3)• Illegal firearms: 73% in Luzon Island; • In Mindanao, 50% of illegal firearms in Central Mindanao and

ARMM• From life histories: system and structure of the illegal firearms

trade based on non-hierarchical bargaining structure• From life histories: function incentive structure in the illegal

firearms trade (supply and demand side)• From 1990-2008 official statistics on legal gun purchases: increasing

density of licensed firearms to population – from 1:129 to 1:56• From 2010 official statistics on loose firearms: differently armed

populations – 1:49 national average; 1:102 in Northern Mindanao, 1:31 in ARMM

Perplexing Data: Crime, Conflict and Firearms - between Conflict-Prone and Less Conflict-Prone Regions

Source: PNP-FED 2010

2008 2009 2010

Crimes 113 265 418

Loose Firearms Used 118 280 436

Licensed Firearms Used 1 1 0

25

75

125

175

225

275

325

375

425

475

Crime Incidents and Firearms Used

Region 10, 2008-2010

2008 2009 2010

Crimes 144 134 82

Loose Firearms Used 155 135 86

Licensed Firearms Used 0 3 2

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

Crime Incidents and Firearms Used

ARMM 2008-2010

Low ARMM Index Crime Volume (2009): effective deterrent or “smoothening” of data?

NCR

Region 9

Region 10

Region 11

Region 12

CARAGA

ARMM

40969

9612

27240

18652

12337

7966

1228

Reported Index Crimes in Selected Regions, 2009

Index & Non-Index Crime Ratios, 2001-2009: high crime ratio in the center of power and law enforcement

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Phils

48.5 54.6 52.1 51.1 51.6 47.8 41.8 40.4 327.1

NCR

78 90.6 97 90.9 90 89 80.1 81.9 359.3

Outside NCR

44.1 49.2 45.6 45.3 38.4 34.1 32.6 33.5 217.9

2575

125175225275325

Index Crime Ratio per 100,000 Population, 2001-2009

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Phils

49.5 52.4 50.1 41.4 69 78.5 75.6 73 164.1

NCR

68.1 96 103 75.7 69 78.5 75.6 73 164.1

Outside NCR

46.7 46 42.3 36.4 34 27.5 26.2 27.8 225.5

2575

125175225275325

Non-Index Crime Ratio per 100,000 Population, 2001-2009

Very low Under 5 child mortality rate in the ARMM: efficient service delivery or “smoothening” of data?

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Phils 55 42 22 22 21 20 18 18 19

NCR 39 31 31 30 27 26 24 25 25

10 Northern M 65 49 15 16 16 15 14 14 15

ARMM 98 72 24 6 7 7 6 7 6

5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

Mortality Rate (under 5 y/o) in the Philippines & Selected Regions, 1998-2006

per 1

,000

live

birt

hs

Very low Infant mortality rate in the ARMM: efficient delivery of services or “smoothening of data”?

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Philippines 36 16 16 15 14 14 13 13 13

NCR 24 25 23 23 20 20 19 19 19

Region 10 41 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10

ARMM 55 2 7 4 5 5 4 4 4

5

15

25

35

45

55

Infant Mortality Rate in the Philippines and Selected Regions, 1998-2006

per 1

,000

live

birt

hs

Male-Female Life Expectancy, 2000-2010

Phils NCR Region 9 Region 10

Region 11

Region 12

Region 13

ARMM

70.14

73.15

68.18 68.61 67.91 68.8466.99

59.3

71.64

74.35

70.18 70.61 69.9170.84

69.29

61.82

Life Expectancy - Female2000-2005 2005-2010

Phils NCR Region 9 Region 10

Region 11

Region 12

Region 13

ARMM

64.11

66.11

62.61 63.38 63.62 63.9161.94

55.5

66.1167.61

64.6165.38 65.62 65.91

63.94

57.99

Life Expectancy - Male2000-2005 2005-2010

Next steps

• Continue with literature review• Iterate life history collection • Collect 10-year panel data on loose firearms • Generate data on other state functions (quality

and costs of services) such as policing (gun related crimes), health, education and promotion of tourism; compare performance of high firearms density (ARMM, Central Mindanao) and low firearms density (Northern Mindanao)

Thank You!