mission 2020: roadmap for rapid decarbonisation
TRANSCRIPT
J o h a n R o c k s t r ö mStockholm Resilience Centre14 November, COP23
Ro a d m a p fo r ra p i d d e c a r b o n i s a t i o nTranslating the Paris Agreement in to action
Translating the Paris Agreement into action
Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
Halving emissions every decade is
consistent with
Paris Agreement
Pink: medium 2 °C scenarios—limiting warming during the twenty-first century to below 2 °C with 50–66% chance; orange: likely 2 °C scenarios—limiting warming during the twenty-first century to below 2 °C with >66% chance; blue: 1.5 °C scenarios—limiting warming in 2100 to below 1.5 °C with >50%
chance.
Emissions profiles consistent with 1.5C (dark blue)2C (orange and pink) Rogelj et al. NatureCC 2015
Three years to safeguard our climateFigueres et al Nature Climate Change 2017
8
37 billion
tonnes
In 2017, global
carbon dioxide
emissions from
fossil fuels and
industry will reach
around 37bn
tonnes of carbon
dioxide. Total emissions from all
sources: approx 41GtCO2Le Quéré et al ESSDD Global Carbon Budget 2017
2% growth
The land and ocean absorb
around half the emissions
Le Quéré et al ESSDD Global Carbon Budget 2017
8
… but atmospheric
concentrations continue to rise8
8Proposing Decadal Pathways. Globally, halving emissions every decade is consistent with the Paris Agreement goal to hold rise to “well below 2°C”.
Rockström, J., Gaffney, O., Rogelj, J., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Schellnhuber, H.J., 2017. “A roadmap for rapid decarbonization.” Science (80-. ), 355, 1269–1271.
Red line: Carbon budget following halving circa: 550GtCO2 to 2060. Grey area: Carbon budget 750GtCO2
to 2060.
We are already on the right trajectoryRenewables: Share of primary energy: doubling every 5-6 years
Rockström, Gaffney, Joeri, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
We are already on the right trajectoryRenewables: Share of primary energy
If doubling pace continues, primary energy will be 100% renewable before 2050
Rockström, Gaffney, Joeri, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
Carbon Law – halve emissions every decade
Carbon Law – halve emissions every decade
Decadal roadmap
Rockström, Gaffney, Joeri, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
J o h a n R o c k s t r ö mStockholm Resilience Centre14 November, COP23
Ro a d m a p fo r ra p i d d e c a r b o n i s a t i o nTranslating the Paris Agreement in to action