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Human Computer Interaction and societal impact – Can HCI influence public policy making and IT politics?

Keynote address at IADIS IHCI’16, July 2, 2016

Jan Gulliksen •  Professor in Human Computer Interaction, •  Dean of the school Computer Science and Communication, KTH Royal Institute of

Technology, Stockholm, Sweden •  Guest professor at Uppsala university, Sweden •  Chairman of the Digital commission of the Swedish Government, Ministry of

Enterprise •  Digital champion of Sweden appointed by the European Commission

DeanofSchoolofComputerScienceandcommunica:on

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Vehicles,ships

Administra2vework

Researchinterests:HumanInterac:onwithWork-suppor:ngICT-systems

Healthandcare

!Process-andtrafficcontrol

FirstreportfromthecommiHeeforDigi:za:onreleasedMay3,2013

Thecommi

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DigitalchampionofSweden

ahigh-profile,dynamicandenerge:cindividualresponsibleforgeTngeveryoneintheircountryonlineandimprovingdigitalskills.“You’rethedigitalchampionofSweden–Yourtaskiseasy”NeelieKroes,vicepresidentEuropeancommission

Scien:ficImpact

•  GooglescholarprofilewithAlbertEinstein

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Societalimpact

•  Whatisthat?

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Societalimpact

•  Changetheworld•  Educate•  Influencepublicpolicy,standards,etc.•  Innovateandstartcompanies•  Improvedevelopmentmethodologies•  MakeitabeHerworldforoneindividual

Predic:ngthefuture…

“Thebestwaytopredictthefutureistoinventit.”SteveJobs

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FotoKris:n

aSahlén

”…theremightjustbeaworldmarketof5computers”(T.J.Watson,presidentIBM,1943)”…Icanassureyouthatdataprocessingisafadthatwon’tlasttheyear.”(Editor,Pren:ce-Hall,1957)”…inthedistantfuturecomputersmightweighlessthan1.5tons”(PopularMechanics,1957)“TheInternetisaflythatmightblowpast.Idonotthinkpeopleul7matelywillwanttospendasmuch7measitactuallytakes,forsurfingtheweb.”(InesUusman,MinisterofCommunica:onsinSweden,1996)"TheInternetisnewterritoryforallofus”(AngelaMerkel,PrimeMinisterofGermany,2013)

Predic:ngthefuture…

Tradi:onalofficeworkenvironments–20yearsofdevelopment

–Doyouseethedevelopment?

2014-04-05 14

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Thefutureofficeenvironment

MovementmaHers

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Thedystopianvision:Minorityreport

•  Research-basedsciencefic:on

•  Ar:ficialintelligencerevisited

Changingcondi:onsfortheuser

•  Thevirtualoffice•  Ac:vity-based

offices

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Newtechnology–newbusinessmodels

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•  Fromindustrialapplica:onstohomebasedenvironments.

•  Helpingincare•  Helpingineduca:on

Robo:csandAutonomoussystems

HughHerr,MITMedialab

•  Facilita:ngforuserswithspecialneeds•  Extendingthefunc:onalitybeyondhumanabili:es

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HughHerr,MITMedialab

•  Facilita:ngforuserswithspecialneeds•  Extendingthefunc:onalitybeyondhumanabili:es

Google’sautonomouscar

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Brain-computerinterac:onandNeuroinforma:cs

•  Fromambientintelligencetoubiquitouscompu:ng

•  Connec:ngcomputersdirectlytoyournervoussystem

Whatwillthefuturelabourmarketlooklike?

Digitaliza:onAutoma:za:onRobo:za:onGlobaliza:onUrbaniza:onIndividualiza:on

Fölster,S.(2014).Vartannatjobbautoma7serasinom20år–utmaningarförSverige.

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Highest probability Lowest probability

Occupation Probability for

digitalization Occupation Probability for

digitalization

Models, etc. 98% Pschologists, social workers, etc. 3%

Accounting assistants 97% Specialists within biology, agriculture and forestry, etc. 3%

Machine operators, timber industry 97% Pastors 2,5%

Library assistants, etc. 96% CEO, Managing directors and chief executives, etc. 1,5%

Cashiers, etc. 95% Senior officials of special interest organizations 1,5%

Assistants within farming, gardening, forestry and fishing 95%

Legislators, senior officials and politicians 1,2%

Other machine operators and fitters 94% Special teachers 1,1%

Dealers, retailers, demonstrators etc. 94% Other teachers with special theoretical competence 0,9%

Other office workers 94% Priests 0,8%

Stalls and market salespersons 94% Agronoms, forest rangers etc. 0,8%

Adaptedfrom“Thefutureofemployment:howsuscep7blearejobstocomputerisa7on?”byCarlBenediktFreyandMichaelA.Osborne,September17,2013

Howlikelyisitthatajobistakenoverbyacomputerwithinthenext20years?

Highest probability Lowest probability

Occupation Probability for

digitalization Occupation Probability for

digitalization

Models, etc. 98% Pschologists, social workers, etc. 3%

Accounting assistants 97% Specialists within biology, agriculture and forestry, etc. 3%

Machine operators, timber industry 97% Pastors 2,5%

Library assistants, etc. 96% CEO, Managing directors and chief executives, etc. 1,5%

Cashiers, etc. 95% Senior officials of special interest organizations 1,5%

Assistants within farming, gardening, forestry and fishing 95%

Legislators, senior officials and politicians 1,2%

Other machine operators and fitters 94% Special teachers 1,1%

Dealers, retailers, demonstrators etc. 94% Other teachers with special theoretical competence 0,9%

Other office workers 94% Priests 0,8%

Stalls and market salespersons 94% Agronoms, forest rangers etc. 0,8%

Adaptedfrom“Thefutureofemployment:howsuscep7blearejobstocomputerisa7on?”byCarlBenediktFreyandMichaelA.Osborne,September17,2013

Howlikelyisitthatajobistakenoverbyacomputerwithinthenext20years?

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Highest probability Lowest probability

Occupation Probability for

digitalization Occupation Probability for

digitalization

Models, etc. 98% Pschologists, social workers, etc. 3%

Accounting assistants 97% Specialists within biology, agriculture and forestry, etc. 3%

Machine operators, timber industry 97% Pastors 2,5%

Library assistants, etc. 96% CEO, Managing directors and chief executives, etc. 1,5%

Cashiers, etc. 95% Senior officials of special interest organizations 1,5%

Assistants within farming, gardening, forestry and fishing 95%

Legislators, senior officials and politicians 1,2%

Other machine operators and fitters 94% Special teachers 1,1%

Dealers, retailers, demonstrators etc. 94% Other teachers with special theoretical competence 0,9%

Other office workers 94% Priests 0,8%

Stalls and market salespersons 94% Agronoms, forest rangers etc. 0,8%

Adaptedfrom“Thefutureofemployment:howsuscep7blearejobstocomputerisa7on?”byCarlBenediktFreyandMichaelA.Osborne,September17,2013

Howlikelyisitthatajobistakenoverbyacomputerwithinthenext20years?

“Thefutureofemployment:howsuscep7blearejobstocomputerisa7on?”byCarlBenediktFreyandMichaelA.Osborne,September17,2013

NearlyhalfofUSjobscouldbeatriskofcomputeriza2on

Crea:veandsocialintelligenceskillsarerequired

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Source: LinkedInSource: LinkedIn

Source: LinkedIn

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TheDigitalEconomyandSocietyIndexrankscountriesbasedon5parameters;Connec7vity,HumanCapital,InternetUsage,Integra7onofDigitalTechnologyandDigitalPublicServices.(RetrievedfromtheDigitalAgendaScoreboard2016-01-04)

TheDigitalEconomyandSocietyIndex

ShareoftheSwedishpopula:onover18yearsthathaveaccesstoacomputer,internetandbroadband

Källa:Svenskarnaochinternet2015

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Källa:Svenskarnaochinternet2013

Vilkaärdetsominteanvänderinternet?

Andelenavdesominteanvänderinternetiolikaåldersgrupper

Källa:Svenskarnaochinternet2015

Källa:Svenskarnaochinternet2013

Whoaretheonesnotusingtheinternet?

Shareofthosenotusingtheinternetdividedintoagecategories

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Källa:Svenskarnaochinternet2013

Källa:Svenskarnaochinternet2015

Whyaren’ttheyusingtheinternet?

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•  x

Källa:Svenskarnaochinternet2015

Förskojsskull…

•  50%avallatvååringaranvänderinternet

•  Fram:denskonsumenter

•  Poten:alförinnova:onoch:llväxt gretchichi

källa:Svenskarnaochinternet2013

Källa:Svenskarnaochinternet2015

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Justforfun…

•  67%ofall2yearoldsareusinginternet

•  Theconsumersofthefuture

•  Poten:alforinnova:onandgrowth gretchichi

källa:Svenskarnaochinternet2013

Childrenandyoungadolecent’suseofsocialnetworks

Source:Svenskarnaochinternet2013

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1.IncreasingtheamountofICTprac::onersinEU

•  Currently4-6millionpeopleemployedasICTprofessionals

•  Demandgrowing3%ayear•  Supplynotkeepingpace•  Issues:youngarenotchosingICTstudies,notenoughgraduates,lowfemalepar:cipa:on,skillsmismatches–educa:onandtrainingnotfulfillingindustrydemand

•  Shortagesforecasttocon2nue: 900000–1millionvacanciesby2015

TheICTworldisnotenough

Companiescan'tfindICTspecialistsYoungpeoplecan'tfindjobs

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2.ImprovingDigitalskillsamongICTusers

•  18.5%oftheworkforceisICTintensive•  90%requiresomedegreeofskills•  Demanddependsoneachprofession•  ICTskillsotentransferableacrossjobs•  But,only53%oftheworkforceconfidentinICTskillsiftheyweretolookfor/changejobsinthenext12months

•  Anduserskillsaretoalargeexentmissing/notadequate...

Thanks

JanGulliksengulliksen@kth.se@jangulliksenjangulliksen.com