John Grin First World Congress on Risk 1

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gnDealing with risks in modern institutions: the Hercules effort

John GrinUniversity of Amsterdam

Dept. Political SciencePolicy Sciences, esp. System Innovation

j.grin@uva.nlhttp://www.fmg.uva.nl/afdeling_pol

http://www.fmg.uva.nl/perform

John Grin First World Congress on Risk 2

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gn1. Risk society

• ‘Duality of structure’ (Giddens)– Institutions

• Knowledge infrastructure• Governance system• Market

– Have emerged from and are shaping dominant social processes

• Risk society:– (potential) side effects of simple modernization can no

longer be neglected– Risks cannot be adequately handled by current

institutions

John Grin First World Congress on Risk 3

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gn2. Reflexive modernization

• We are in need of a reflexive modernization, i.e. a coherent change in– Action– Structure (institutions)

• Reflexive design: design for a strategy beyond existing institutions

• But how to perform reflexive design within existing structures?

John Grin First World Congress on Risk 4

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gn3. Modernization of agriculture

• 1890-1940: product -improvement; land saving• Since 1945: product improvement; intensive

production; labour saving• Number of pigs remained growing; pig farmers:

– 275,000 (1950) > 110,000 (1975) > 20,000 (1995)

• Much longer, more differentiated economic chains consisting of many specialized players

• Specialized knowledge infrastructure• OVO-tryad• Iron triangle

John Grin First World Congress on Risk 5

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gn4. The Hercules project

• Started, as part of EET programme, in 1998, after Classical Swine Fever– Six firms, fundamental researchers, practice-oriented

researchers

• Core idea:– Convex manure belts, separating urine and faces so as

to produce high quality fertilizer specialties through drying urine, using pig warmth + composting

– Unlike traditional sewerage, Hercules could use much straw: animal welfare

– Biomass composting + energy production

• Integrated in P348 in 2000: stakeholder involvement

John Grin First World Congress on Risk 6

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gn5. How the manure belts went out

• Manure belts: Originally promoted as a key asset• Later, concerns accumulated:

– Market not used to integral housing systems• Post-war market: specialized chain actors• Culturally embedded; Investment patterns • Could it be solved?

– Manure cheaper; no viable market introduction strategy• Plant and animal production had become separate worlds

(both agricultural practice and knowledge generation)– Costs too high (€ 0,05)

• Historically contingent assumptions• Specialized, long chains: primary producers have limited

power; multiplicative effect of primary product costs – Infections?!?

• Knowledge falling short for a quick fix

John Grin First World Congress on Risk 7

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gn6. Why it was so difficult to do better

• As a EET programme, the project was very successful; the belts justifiably discarded

• As an attempt at reflexive design, typical for the difficulties that may be encountered

• Difficulties were discovered only late, since farmers were involved – only in P348 period– By practice oriented institutes

John Grin First World Congress on Risk 8

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gn7. Lessons that may be learned

• It appeared difficult to define visions:– Short time horizons– Lack of commitment

• Methodical lesson:– Connect to reverse salients, presumotive anomalies

a.s.o.– Be very explicit about reflexive nature of envisaged

changes

• Lesson on governance:– Government needs to be:

• Resolved to stop current problems and create future• Strategically coherent mix of openness, consistency