david ma wei - how to simulate a complicated, dynamic business process in program design

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“CATCH 3 MONKEYS” CUSTOMIZED SIMULATION FOR BUSINESS IMPACT SERIOUS PLAY CONFERENCE 2014 USC, JULY 22-24 SIMU4WISDOM LEARNING CONSULTANTS & CO.

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A breakthrough method of design a business simulation for Sino-pharma executive. Sino-pharma is the No.1 distributor in China, and has very complicated business model due to geographic diversify. The supplier (Upstream) and terminal (downstream) are co-related and mixed. Face the business challenge of 20% organic growth and asset effectiveness. We find a way to help the executive to practice before the really deal with it.

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

“CATCH 3 MONKEYS”

C U S TO M I Z E D S I M U L AT I O N F O R B U S I N E S S I M PA C T

SERIOUS PLAY CONFERENCE 2014

USC, JULY 22-24

SIMU4WISDOM LEARNING CONSULTANTS & CO.

Page 2: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

WELCOME BY SIMU4WISDOM !

DAVID MAWEI 马伟

• TRAINER

• DESIGNER

• GAMER

Page 3: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

WHO IS SIMU4WISDOM?

Simulation Design

Training Deliver

Strategy Alignment

What we provide:

Page 4: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

AGENDA

• C u s to m e r c a s e 1 0 ’

• B u s i n e s s c h a l l e n g e 5 ’

• M e t h o d o l o g y 1 0 ’

• I n t r o d u c e V i to - C r e e k s i m u l a t i o n 1 5 ’

• Q & A 5 ’

Page 5: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

CUSTOMER (SINO-PHARMA)

• State owned company from 1950, 30Billon USD revenue in 2013

• Net profit rate<1%, Negative operation cash-flow

• Market leader in China pharmacy distribution business

• Past growth from M&A 200+ local distribution companies

Page 6: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

MARKET

• 500Million rural people seldom go to hospital, they deal with

disease like our ancestors

• Average medical consumption per people per year: China 11$,

USA 800$.

• Notorious corruption among the local governments and

hospitals, business deal mostly under-table

Page 7: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

DEMAND

• Communicate the strategy shift from M&A to organic growth

• Regulate the business operation ethic as a public list company

• Leadership development of the head of new M&A local

distribution companies

Page 8: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

RESEARCH:CONCENTRATION RATIO

26%

36%

33%

5%

USA

Amersourc

ebergen

Mckesson

Cardinal

Others

9% 5%

4%

82%

CHINA

Sinopharma

SH Pharma

Huarun

Others

95% VS.18%

Page 9: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

SAME BUSINESS DIFFERENCE IN 2 COUNTRIES

CHINA USA

Major sales channel Hospital (85%+) Retail (87%+)

Hospital admittance CFDA + Local gov. FDA

Sales competition Local gov. Fair

Payment term Local gov. Fair

Upstream relationship Local gov. Fair

…… “Guanxi” Fair

Page 10: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

INTERVIEW WITH CUSTOMER

“What is the key successful factor of your business?”

The answer is :

“ GuanXi (Relationship)”

• The relationship with

• the local government

• the major hospitals

• the upstream company

Page 11: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

INTERVIEW WITH CUSTOMER

“What is the headache problem that block your success?”

The answer is :

“ Meet the conflict and combined needs of 3 stakeholders”

• Local government -----------------------------------accomplishment

• Downstream channels ----------------------------categorize of medicine

• Upstream companies ------------------------------volume of sales

Page 12: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

INTERVIEW WITH CUSTOMER

“What kind of competition you deal with?”

The answer is :

“ The competition are variable in different local market”

• Different area has different relationship level with

• local government

• Downstream channels

• Upstream company

Page 13: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

THE UNIQUE BUSINESS MODEL

Sino-Pharm

Local government

Upstream Downstream

Page 14: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

THE DESIGN CHALLENGES

1. How to simulate “ Guan Xi(Relationship)” in a learning programs

2. How to simulate 3 stakeholdes coupling effects

3. How to simulate the strategy characters of different company

Design Challenges

“GuanXi”

Conflict

Characteristic

Page 15: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

THE DESIGN SOLUTIONS

1. Intangible asset measurement “ Guan Xi(Relationship)”

2. Upgrade system for 3 stakeholders coupling effects

3. Asynchronies startup among the learning groups

Design Solutions

Intangible Asset

Upgrade System

Asynchronies Startup

Page 16: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

METHODOLOGY

1. Business impact map analysis

2. Business big picture (Over view)

3. Business value structure

4. Business logic tree

Page 17: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

BUSINESS IMPACT MAP Behaviors Initiatives Results

Maintain No.1 and

increase the share of

market in China

Rev reach 40 Billion

USD in 2016

(CAGR 22.6%)

Increase 1% Nopat

rate and positive

operation Cash-flow

Identify the key

strategy factors and

correlated

Proactively deal with

market dynamic, build

up the solid business

relationship with

stakeholders.

Effectively allocate the

precise resources to

influence the value

chain, to achieve the

profit rate and cash-

flow

Market and value

chain analysis,

estimate the trend

and dynamic

Decomposition the

group strategy and

planning the

business and risk

control

Manipulate the key

successful factors to

influence the growth,

profitability and

cash-flow

Use KPI to guarantee

the execution and

measurement

Understand the

business challenge

and improve the

industry insight

Build up the strategy,

finance, market and

opeation capability

Find a way to

increase the

negotiation power in

value chain

Make decision in

relationship foster

and realize

Competence

HOW HOW HOW?

Page 18: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

Local Government

BUSINESS BIG PICTURE

DUMMY Distributor Downstream

Channel Upstream Company

Backoffice Business

Logistic Financing

Cash Mgmt.

Front Business

Upstream team Downstream team Product Category Gov. relationship

Demand generation

Purchase

• Deal

• Upgrade

• Value add

Sales

• Deal

• Upgrade

• Value add

Wholesale

Sino-Pharma

Page 19: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

Business Value

Tangible

Cash-flow Profitability Asset

structure

Intangible

Upstream Downstream Local Gov.

BUILD THE VALUE STRUCTURE

Page 20: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

ROLE OF MANAGERS

Sino-Pharma Output

(Collect money)

Input

(Use resource)

Foster resource to build edge

Page 21: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

2014/7/26

Page 22: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design
Page 23: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

2014/7/26

Page 24: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

THE BOARD

2014/7/26

Upstream

Relationship

Downstream

Relationship Local gov.

Relationship

Payment & Collection

Order

Area

Page 25: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

UPSTREAM BRIEF

Category

◎ Generic

☆ Original

▲ Anesthetic

Company Portfolio Strategy preference Contract term

White ◎+☆ Market share High penetrate

Good refund Upgrade optimize payment

Blue ◎+ ☆ Muilti channels

Good refund Upgrade is useless

Green ☆ Hospital focus Mid refund High margin

Black ◎+▲ Binding sales ▲ No refund, need license Bad payment term

Dummy Null Money and cash 1% profit. cash on delivery

Page 26: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

Name Category Demand Preference

H I Hospital ◎☆▲ Relationship Variety etc.

H II

H III

RC Rural Clinic

◎☆ Relationship Discount etc.

RS Retail shop ◎☆ Promotion Logistic etc.

WS Wholeseller ◎☆ Discount Variety etc.

DOWNSTREAM BRIEF

Page 27: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

LOCAL GOVERNMENT RELATIONSHIP

Foster:

• Government Task Accomplishment • Investment, Industry benchmark , Generic coverage, etc.

• Upgrade the value chain control

Realize:

• Influence the local directory admittance

• Influence the hospital decision

• Accelerate the hospital money collection

Page 28: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

DOWNSTREAM RELATIONSHIP

Relationship Logistic

Page 29: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

UPSTREAM RELATIONSHIP

Hospital/Clinic

Order

Retail

Order

Wholesell

Order

Downgrade Upgrade

Distributor rank

Page 30: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

THE SIMULATION PROCESS

Planning

1. Loan

2. Quota

3. Support

Bid

4. Hospital

5. Clinic

6. Retail

7. Wholesale

Page 31: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

TANGIBLE ASSET

Cash 314 AR 250 Deposit 40 Logistic 16 Total asset 620 AP 0 Loan 300 Total liability 300 Beginning equity 309 Gain/Loss 11 Ending equity 320 Equity & liability 620

Page 32: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

DIFFERENCE OF STARTUP

Alpha Beta Gamma

Tangible SAME

Intangible Difference

Wa 2 2 3

Ba 3 1 2

Gov.pt 5 5 3

Main

force Hospital I Hospital II Hospital III

Page 33: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

MEET THE NEEDS OF 3 STAKEHOLDERS

Page 34: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

THE MARKET FORECAST

Page 35: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

RESOURCE PLANNING (UPSTREAM)

√ √ √ √

Page 36: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

UPSTREAM QUOTA BID

Page 37: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

LOCAL DIRECTORY ADMITTANCE

Page 38: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

UPSTREAM BID

Page 39: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

RESOURCE PLANNING(DOWNSTREAM)

2014/7/26

√ √

√ √

√ √

Page 40: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

DOWNSTREAM BID

Page 41: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

DOWNSTREAM BID

2014/7/26

Page 42: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

EXAMPLE: THE NEED OF HOSPITAL I

GA*4, BA*1, DA*1

PRIORITY: ALPHA > DUMMY > BETA

Page 43: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

EXAMPLE: THE RESULT OF HOSPITAL I

ALPHA DUMMY BETA

Page 44: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

YOU GET ORDER !

Hospital/Clinic

Order

Retail

Order

Wholesale

Order

DO YOU HAVE QUOTA?

CAN THEY LIST IN LOCAL DIRECTORY?

Page 45: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

YOU GET MONEY ! WHEN

YOU HAVE TO PAY ! WHEN

GOV.

Page 46: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

YOU GET STATUS !

GOV. GOV.

GOV.

Page 47: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

SIMULATION TARGET

Alpha Group

Tangible

Cashflow

Income

statement

Rev. = M Margin + Refund = M

Fixed Cost = M Net profit = M

Balance

sheet

Total Asset = M Loan = M

Equity = M ROA =

Intangible

Upstream

Relationsip

Wa·◎ Wb·☆ Ba·☆ Ga·◎ Da·▲

Downstream

Relationship

Hospital I Hospital II Hospital III Clinic Retail

Gov.

Relationship

Use ,Earn ,Reserve for next year:

Page 48: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

BUSINESS SETTLEMENT

2014/7/26

Page 49: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

WRAP UP

C u s to m i z e s i m u l a t i o n f i t u n i q u e c u s to m e r ’ s b u s i n e s s

s i t u a t i o n a n d t a l e n t d e v e l o p m e n t n e e d s

Design Challenges

“GuanXi”

Conflict

Characters

Design

Solutions

Intangible Asset

Upgrade System

Asynchronies Startup

Page 50: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

VALUE CREATED

W h a t w e h a v e d o n e ?

Page 51: David Ma Wei - How to Simulate a Complicated, Dynamic Business Process in Program Design

WE SEEK US PARTNERS !

Game Designer: Templar LU

Learning Designer: David Mawei

Simu4wisdom learning consultants & Co.

Room 1607, No, 1076,Changshou Rd,

Shanghai, 200042

T +86-21-62567710/51600196

skype: Simu4wisdom

E: [email protected]

www.simu4wisdom.com