David J. KaufmanAssociate Administrator, Policy, Program Analysis, and International Affairs

Toward More Resilient Futures: Adapting to New Realities

September 30, 2014

Worldwide, the number of disasters has increased along with the magnitude of their effects

INCREASING HARM: ENVIRONMENT

Natural Disasters2 Man-made disasters1

Insured losses (in USD billions) have spiked significantly in the past decade …

… As have the number of victims3 affected

Number of events have increased over time

1 Attributable to human actions, including but not limited to arms explosions, terrorist attacks, factory fires, aviation disasters, etc. (war is excluded)2 Attributable to events caused by nature, including but not limited to tornados, earthquakes, hurricanes, droughts, wildfires, extreme weather, etc.3 Dead or missing

SOURCE: Swiss Re

1970 20101990

Weather-related

Earthquake/tsunami

Man-made

10-year average total insured losses

Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, Wilma

Japan,1 NZ EQs, Thailand flood

Indian Ocean EQ& tsunami

Haiti earthquake

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

3

By 2050 the world’s urban population is expected to double

4

Growth in populations of elderly and chronically ill are shifting the needs for services in the wake of disasters

SOURCE: Pewsocialtrends.org; CDC; Health and economic burden of the projected obesity trends in the USA and UK, Claire Wang MD, Department of Health Policy and Management, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, Aug 2011

5

Globalization of supply chains has raised the likelihood of 2nd or 3rd order impacts that are hard or impossible to predict

6

The variability and intensity of extreme weather events is changing

The U.S. faces an aging infrastructure

1 out of every 9 bridges is structurally deficient

1 Estimate from Association of State Dam Safety Officials 2 Estimate from National Committee on Levee Safety

SOURCE: “2013 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure,” American Society of Civil Engineers, March 2013; FEMA analysis

An estimated investment of $21 billion is required to retrofit existing dams1

U.S. levees barely passed the American Society of Civil Engineers’ test, receiving a D-

We are increasingly vulnerable to extreme geomagnetic storms that could cause widespread blackouts affecting as many as 130 million in the United States alone

9

Information flows are revolutionizing change cycles (politics, opinion), as well as how we use our social networks

10

The power and influence of non-state actors is growing

RETWEET

Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill 2010

The technical capabilities needed to respond to disasters often exist outside the public sector

Haiti Earthquake 2010

The democratization of technology is changing relationships to public space

Brisbane Floods 2010-2011

The impact of social movements in disasters is growing

Hurricane Sandy 2012

The means and methods for delivering disaster services are shifting

We Face…

• Increasing complexity and decreasing predictability

• Cascading events and interdependencies

• Unavoidable resource constraints

• Challenges from both acute and chronic issues

We Need…

• To change how we think about, assess and understand risk

• To recognize and empower survivors as active agents in their own survival (public and private)

• To strengthen trust and engagement, among the government, private industry, and the public

• To design frameworks that better enable cross-sector activity and cooperation toward shared outcomes

A Whole Community Approach to Emergency Management

Foster Innovation & Learning

P1

P2

P3

P4

P5

2 STRATEGIC IMPERATIVES

Strengthen FEMA’s Organizational Foundation

PRIORITY 5

Enable Disaster Risk Reduction Nationally

PRIORITY 4

Posture & Build Capability for Catastrophic Disasters

PRIORITY 3

Become an Expeditionary Organization

PRIORITY 2

Be Survivor-Centric in Mission & Program Delivery

PRIORITY 1

5 ST

RA

TE

GIC

PR

IOR

ITIE

SFEMA’s Focus and Priorities

david.kaufman@fema.dhs.gov

Thank You!