david finley / lartpc group meeting / june 13, 2006 @ fermilab slide 1 lartpc detector costs context...

David Finley / LArTPC Group Meeting / June 13, 2006 @ Fermilab Slide 1

LArTPC Detector Costs

• Context

• History

• Next (perhaps) steps


Context:Making the Ultimate Step for

Large Liquid Argon TPC Detectors

What is the penultimate step?

David Finley to LArTPC Group MeetingFermilab June 12, 2006


The Ultimate Step

• Assumptions for beginning the ultimate step:

– A timely, cutting edge physics justification• Examples may be: Neutrino oscillations, proton decay, neutrinoless

double beta decay, supernovae, etc

– A project for a 50 to 100 kton TPC liquid argon detector

– An international collaboration that agrees detectors will be in one or more of these locations:

• Under rock/dirt in Italy• Under rock/dirt in the Western US• On the surface in the NuMI beam (or anywhere else on the planet)


The Penultimate Step• Making the penultimate step assumes completion of:

– A compelling physics case for the ultimate step• In the context of a globally coordinated neutrino physics program, which in

turn requires• A functional international collaboration in place with possible, but

unapproved, funding sources for the ultimate detector, and• A physics case for the penultimate step would be a BIG bonus

– A credible schedule, which requires (see next slide):

– A credible cost estimate, which requires (see next slide):

– A compelling demonstration of the engineering/technology and the experimental physics capability for the ultimate detector, probably with the construction and operation of a “penultimate detector” as well as the physics analysis of data provided by it.


The Penultimate Step• Making the penultimate step requires completion of:

– A compelling physics case for the ultimate step … (see previous slide):

– A credible schedule, which requires:• Time for peer reviews, lab reviews, and government approvals• Completion of R&D for the engineering/technology and physics capability

required for the ultimate detector• Time for construction and operation of the ultimate detector

– A credible cost estimate, which requires:• A technical design to accomplish the physics• A credible schedule (see above)• Engineers and project management techniques

– A compelling demonstration … (see previous slide)


Penultimate thoughts from HansThanks, David.Very well said. Unfortunately I did not receive your last slide which must say something like: "The Penultimate Detector:Requires:--finding a physics justification for a (1 to 3 kton ?) detector--implies defining the location, rates, physics expectation--A credible schedule--A credible cost estimate-- A credible collaboration" Hans[email to lar_at_fnal June 8, 2006]


Now for costs …

– A credible cost estimate which requires:• A technical design to accomplish the physics• A credible schedule• Engineers and project management techniques

– And the cost estimate will be used to …• Identify large costs (and cost uncertainties) which might be

reduced by – technical R&D including more detailed engineering designs or – getting information which is closer to firm quotes from vendors

• Increase costs to reduce risk or improve technical performance or to advance/stretch the schedule (for whatever reasons)

• Identify all tasks (i.e., costs) by using a WBS (see later slide)• Compare to other techniques and approaches (e.g. Water

Cherenkov, surface vs. below ground, etc.)


History: What has been done?

• ICARUS– “Rumored” cost is ~$20M for 1.2 kton

• Math gives: ~17M$/kton or ~830M$/50 kton

• And math gives: a factor of ten cheaper would be ~83M$/50kton

• This is an “experienced based” cost estimate.


History: What has been done?

• ICARUS– “Rumored” cost is ~$20M for 1.2 kton

• Math gives: ~17M$/kton or ~830M$/50 kton• And math gives: a factor of ten cheaper would be ~83M$/50kton• This is an “experienced based” cost estimate.

• LArTPC NuSAG submission– $57.45M for 15 kton

• Math gives: 3.8M$/kton or ~190M$/50kton• This is not an “experienced based” cost estimate.

• NuSAG response– See next slide


NuSAG February 28, 2006


NuSAG Submission Costs

15 kton


50 kton estimate


NuSAG LArTPC Cost PieLArTPC Costs submitted to NuSAG

$57.50M

Site and Building

Tank

Tank modifications

TPC

Argon

Argon systems

Electronics

DAQ

15 kton


End of History: WBS here

• See docdb 166


Schedule

• The LArTPC schedule in the NuSAG submission allowed our Director a moment of levity.– The DOE approval process was not included.


Schedule in NuSAG Submission


Next (perhaps) cost steps - 1

• Methodology and archeology

– “Include project management” items so that the Directorate can compare LArTPC costs to other DOE-costed competitors for the funds.

– “Get ICARUS costs directly from INFN”• and relate “Italian cost accounting” to “DOE cost accounting”• so one can better specify what NuSAG meant by “about an order of

magnitude” less• OR NOT … because why is a relative cost improvement relevant?• Is it not the TOTAL cost to various taxpayers that is important?



• What does “cost” mean? Does it mean:– “DOE defensible” or– “Engineering credible” or – Just more “physicist scaling”?– Or some combination?

• Specific design choices– 3 kton … three 15 kton … ten 3 kton … 50 kton …

• what else? … and what experimental requirements drive these choices?



• Next on the hit list for “cost” …– Is it not obvious that there are added costs for the

“many small” approach?• More argon (see next slide) and more steel.• And what exactly does “fiducial volume” mean anyway?• And what does the increased cost buy?

– Reduction in risk by having shorter wires … how short is short enough?

– “Obvious” control of systematics» similar to Braidwood Reactor Neutrino design with multiple

detectors» how well does a single large detector control systematics?

– Staging


All the argon will be bought, but how much is used for physics?

active volume / gross volume

80

85

90

95

100

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

capacity, tons

per

cen

tag

e

10 cm estimated

20 cm estimated

30 cm estimated

40 cm estimated

50 cm estimated

10 cm w/ triangles

20 cm w/ triangles

30 cm w/ triangles

40 cm w/triangles

50 cm w/ triangles

From Pushka Spring 2005

Radiation length is 14cm



• The “3 kton penultimate PHYSICS detector” needs its TPC specified– Strike a balance between “engineering demonstration

for the ultimate detector” and reducing risk to the “physics experiment”

– This may be harder to do than it may seem.

• All “credible costs” require Engineering support from PPD.– Is this actually true? Can the engineering not be

“bought”? … with US dollars and/or with Euros?


Today’s Final “Ultimate” Questions

• Is there any chance at all that Europe/INFN/Japan/Asia/et al would “cost share” on the Ultimate Detector in the US?

• Or will three different detectors, one in each region, be the “obvious” thing to do because– “ultimate” LArTPCs will become the “obvious” detector

for several “obvious” physics experiments– … for less than (a mere) ~$0.5B each … – over the next 20 years or so?

david finley / lartpc group meeting / june 13, 2006 @ fermilab slide 1 lartpc detector costs context...

Documents

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physics expectation

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ultimate stepassumptions

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