dat/sen may 4, 2006 1 decision support for fighter pilots lars rosenberg randleff ph.d. student...

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1 DAT/SEN May 4, 2006 Decision Support Decision Support for Fighter for Fighter Pilots Pilots Lars Rosenberg Randleff Lars Rosenberg Randleff Ph.D. student Ph.D. student Danish Defence Research Establishment Danish Defence Research Establishment

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Page 1: DAT/SEN May 4, 2006 1 Decision Support for Fighter Pilots Lars Rosenberg Randleff Ph.D. student Danish Defence Research Establishment

1DAT/SENMay 4, 2006

Decision SupportDecision Supportfor Fighter Pilotsfor Fighter Pilots

Lars Rosenberg RandleffLars Rosenberg Randleff

Ph.D. studentPh.D. student

Danish Defence Research Danish Defence Research EstablishmentEstablishment

Page 2: DAT/SEN May 4, 2006 1 Decision Support for Fighter Pilots Lars Rosenberg Randleff Ph.D. student Danish Defence Research Establishment

2DAT/SENMay 4, 2006

Rationale

• Numbers of threats, guidance methods, and countermeasures are increasing• 650 missile systems developed• 200-300 missile systems currently deployed

(http://missile.index.ne.jp)

• Not easy to find the best action• Takes training to do it in time• Solution depends on mission

• “The worlds best pilot as the co-pilot”• A work in progress…

Page 3: DAT/SEN May 4, 2006 1 Decision Support for Fighter Pilots Lars Rosenberg Randleff Ph.D. student Danish Defence Research Establishment

3DAT/SENMay 4, 2006

Challenges

• Lack of information• Both in flight and in development

• Information may be self-contradictory• Onboard systems may be wrong

• Best solution depends on a lot of parameters• Avionics, route, scenario, inventory, …

• Should be found in real-time

Page 4: DAT/SEN May 4, 2006 1 Decision Support for Fighter Pilots Lars Rosenberg Randleff Ph.D. student Danish Defence Research Establishment

4DAT/SENMay 4, 2006

Missile Guidance

Semi-active Radar

Infrared

Electro-Optical

Active Radar

Track-Via-Missile

INS/GPS

Command

Beam Rider

Anti-Radiation

Page 5: DAT/SEN May 4, 2006 1 Decision Support for Fighter Pilots Lars Rosenberg Randleff Ph.D. student Danish Defence Research Establishment

5DAT/SENMay 4, 2006

Scenario

-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5

x 104

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4x 10

4

Page 6: DAT/SEN May 4, 2006 1 Decision Support for Fighter Pilots Lars Rosenberg Randleff Ph.D. student Danish Defence Research Establishment

6DAT/SENMay 4, 2006

Parameters

α

ρ

Page 7: DAT/SEN May 4, 2006 1 Decision Support for Fighter Pilots Lars Rosenberg Randleff Ph.D. student Danish Defence Research Establishment

7DAT/SENMay 4, 2006

Lethality

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

x 104

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4x 10

4

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

x 104

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4x 10

4

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 5000

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Scenario Lethality

Page 8: DAT/SEN May 4, 2006 1 Decision Support for Fighter Pilots Lars Rosenberg Randleff Ph.D. student Danish Defence Research Establishment

8DAT/SENMay 4, 2006

Countermeasures

• Jammer• Emits RF radiation• Very “loud”, use

only when needed

• Towed Decoy• A towed jammer• Use once only• Limited resource

• Chaff• Forms a cloud with

a RCS comparable to that of the aircraft

• Limited resource

Page 9: DAT/SEN May 4, 2006 1 Decision Support for Fighter Pilots Lars Rosenberg Randleff Ph.D. student Danish Defence Research Establishment

9DAT/SENMay 4, 2006

Reduction of Lethality (α)

Page 10: DAT/SEN May 4, 2006 1 Decision Support for Fighter Pilots Lars Rosenberg Randleff Ph.D. student Danish Defence Research Establishment

10DAT/SENMay 4, 2006

Reduction of Lethality (ρ)

Page 11: DAT/SEN May 4, 2006 1 Decision Support for Fighter Pilots Lars Rosenberg Randleff Ph.D. student Danish Defence Research Establishment

11DAT/SENMay 4, 2006

An Example

• α = 125°ρ = 80%

• R = Rα∙ Rρ

• RJ,α = 0.80RJ,ρ = 0.50RJ = 0.40

• RD,α = 0.75RD,ρ = 0.80RD = 0.45

• RC,α = 0.05RC,ρ = 0.60RC = 0.03

Page 12: DAT/SEN May 4, 2006 1 Decision Support for Fighter Pilots Lars Rosenberg Randleff Ph.D. student Danish Defence Research Establishment

12DAT/SENMay 4, 2006

Highest Reduction

-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5

x 104

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

x 104

None

Jammer

Chaff

Decoy

Page 13: DAT/SEN May 4, 2006 1 Decision Support for Fighter Pilots Lars Rosenberg Randleff Ph.D. student Danish Defence Research Establishment

13DAT/SENMay 4, 2006

Constraints

• The towed decoy can be used a limited number of times (~3)

• Chaff can be dispensed a limited number of times (~30)

• No countermeasure should be chosen, if none is needed

Page 14: DAT/SEN May 4, 2006 1 Decision Support for Fighter Pilots Lars Rosenberg Randleff Ph.D. student Danish Defence Research Establishment

14DAT/SENMay 4, 2006

Building a Mathematical Model

tot

iii

iiii

N

iiitot

LS

RRR

MTRLTPL

1

)),,,(1()(

,,

1

n

ttprod

tt

best

n

ttsum

SS

SS

SS

0

0

}{max

Page 15: DAT/SEN May 4, 2006 1 Decision Support for Fighter Pilots Lars Rosenberg Randleff Ph.D. student Danish Defence Research Establishment

15DAT/SENMay 4, 2006

Decision Schedule

Jammer

Decoy

Chaff

Page 16: DAT/SEN May 4, 2006 1 Decision Support for Fighter Pilots Lars Rosenberg Randleff Ph.D. student Danish Defence Research Establishment

16DAT/SENMay 4, 2006

Concluding Remarks

• Is it better to look ahead? How much?

• Can calculations be done fast enough? What should be the timeframe?

• Does uncertainty make a difference?• Scenario• Reductions

Page 17: DAT/SEN May 4, 2006 1 Decision Support for Fighter Pilots Lars Rosenberg Randleff Ph.D. student Danish Defence Research Establishment

17DAT/SENMay 4, 2006

Credits

• Dr. Fred Wright, GTRI• Problem, concept

• Mr. Steen Søndergard, DDRE• Models, numbers

• Dr. Jesper Larsen, IMM/DTU• Mathematical model

Page 18: DAT/SEN May 4, 2006 1 Decision Support for Fighter Pilots Lars Rosenberg Randleff Ph.D. student Danish Defence Research Establishment

18DAT/SENMay 4, 2006

Questions?