danielle verna alaska pacific university pacific ballast water group - april 16, 2014 influences of...
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![Page 1: Danielle Verna Alaska Pacific University Pacific Ballast Water Group - April 16, 2014 Influences of policy and vessel behavior on the risk of ballast-borne](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec55503460f94bd08c6/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Danielle VernaAlaska Pacific University
Pacific Ballast Water Group - April 16, 2014
Influences of policy and vessel behavior
on the risk of ballast-borne marine species invasions in
coastal Alaska
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Vector-based Invasion Risk
Ruiz & Carlton 2003
Dose-Response Relationship
Wonham et al. 2013
The expected number of species that will establish is the sum of the probability of each species
establishing
Species Assemblages
Holzer 2013
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Application for Alaska
Ruiz et al. 2011
Last analysis of vessel arrival & ballast discharge data in AK was for 2003 – 2004 (McGee et al. 2006)
Hotspots of invasive species along the US west coast
High potential for coastwise transfer of species (secondary spread)
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US BWM Policy
2004: USCG Mandatory BWM reporting Mandatory BWM
Exemptions: Crude oil tankers involved in
coastwise tradeTraveling within one Captain of the
Port ZoneDOD & USCG vessels
2008: EPA - Vessel General Permit Regulated Pacific nearshore voyages Mandatory management & record keeping for crude oil tankers involved in coastwise trade
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Ballast in AK, 2005 - 2012
~72% of ballast discharge was sourced on the US west coast or
British Columbia
Tankers discharged ~88% of all ballast
Only 33% of reported ballast was managed
(BWE)
• 3,773 discharging arrivals
• 28,213 ballast tanks • 7.5 x107 MT of ballast• 67 ports/bays• 910 offshore lat/long
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Ecoregions of Alaska
Spalding et al. 2007
92%
4%
2%
Ballast in AK, 2005 - 2012
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Ballast Discharge Hotspots
Valdez
Red Dog
Southeast
Dutch Harbor
Afognak
Seward
Nikiski
Ballast Discharge Volume (MT)
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Reported ballast discharge in AK, 2005 - 2012
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120.0E+00
2.0E+06
4.0E+06
6.0E+06
8.0E+06
1.0E+07
1.2E+07
1.4E+07Overseas
Year
Ball
ast
Wate
r V
olu
me
(MT
)
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120.0E+00
2.0E+06
4.0E+06
6.0E+06
8.0E+06
1.0E+07
1.2E+07
1.4E+07Overseas
Year
Ball
ast
Wate
r V
olu
me
(MT
)
Supply & Demand?
EPA VGP
Reported ballast discharge in AK, 2005 - 2012
Risk Assessment
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Reporting increase, 2008 - 2009
Anchorage
Kodiak
Valdez
99% of the increase was to the Gulf of Alaska region
Coastwise ballast: 1095% increase
Overseas ballast: 17% increase
Valdez: 1170% increase in reported ballast discharge volume
47 to 258 reporting tankers
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Valdez
Seward
Nikiski
Afognak
Dutch Harbor
Red Dog
Vessel Type & Exports
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Red Dog Sources
18%
82%
Managed
Unmanaged
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Dutch Harbor Sources
31%
69%
Managed
Unmanaged
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Valdez Sources
67%
33% Managed
Unmanaged
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Model risk as a function of environmental similarity, ballast water age, ballast water volume & species richness
Between source region and top 15 ports by volume
Risk Assessment 2009 - 2012
High-latitude risk assessments:
• Baltic Sea (Leppäkoski & Gollasch 2006)
• Canada (Chan et al. 2013)
• Norway (Ware et al. 2013)
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Environmental Similarity‣ (positively correlated with risk)
1) Low non-adjacent ecoregion2) Medium adjacent ecoregion3) High same ecoregion
• A weighted average was applied to the proximity ranking based on the volume of ballast per source ecoregion
Risk Framework
Spalding et al. 2007
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Ballast water age (negatively correlated with
risk)
Risk Framework
• Number of days between source and discharge date
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Ballast water volume (positively correlated with
risk)
• Serves as a proxy for propagule pressure
• 0.1 correction factor applied to managed ballast to represent 90% efficacy rate of BWE (Ruiz & Reid 2007)
Risk Framework
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Species Richness (positively correlated with risk)
• Number of ballast-borne marine invasive species per source ecoregion (Molnar et al. 2008)
Risk Framework
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Environmen
tal Similarity
Age (days)
Corrected mean volume of ballast water
discharge: ecoregions & ports (log10MT)
Species Abundance
(1) Low < 1 > 10 < 2.6 < 110
(2) Medium 1 – 2 6 – 10 2.6 – 5.1 110 – 219
(3) High > 2 < 6 > 5.1 > 219
Risk Scale
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Valdez, Nikiski, Drift River Terminal & Dutch Harbor may be hotspots for invasion
Risk to all ports was greatest from environmental similarity and ballast water volume
Past policy exemptions hindered monitoring and elevated risk
Results & Implications
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Analysis of impacts from other management exemptions
(i.e. Captain of the Port Zones)
Finer-scale risk analysis
Focused management and survey efforts at source and discharge ports based on relative risk
Ballast water treatment systems
AK regulations?
Further Study
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Increased Arctic vessel trafficNorthwest Passage & Northern
Sea RouteBering Strait bottleneck
Looking Ahead…
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Port developmentOffshore oil & gas growth
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Acknowledgements