dairy production and the carbon cycleeaap.org/annual_meeting/2015_warsaw/s01_05.pdf · dairy...
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Dairy production and the carbon cycle
the importance of carbon sequestration
Corina van Middelaara
Christel Cederbergb, Pierre Gerberac, Martin Perssonb, Imke de Boera
a Animal Production Systems, Wageningen University, the Netherlands b Physical Resource Theory, Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden c UN Food and Agricultural Organisation, Italy; The World Bank, USA
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Reducing global warming?
Livestock production responsible for 15% of
GHGs
Demand for animal source
food to double by
2050
“Prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference with climate
system”
Approaching temperature limit of 2 °C
Measures with a short or long term mitigation potential
Carbon storage in agricultural soils offers potential
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Content
Dairy production and the carbon cycle
Climate impact of greenhouse gases
Case study: grass based vs maize based system
Results: the importance of C sequestration
Conclusions
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Dairy production and the carbon cycle
CO2
CH4
Organic C Organic C
Fossil C Fossil C
Millions of years Centuries to Decades Now
CO2 CO2
Organic C
CH4
•
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Importance of soil carbon sequestration?
One of most promising
mitigation options for agriculture
(Petersen et al., 2013)
Off-set 5-15% of global fossil fuel
emissions (Goglio et al. 2015)
Absorb the equivalent of the
annual anthrophogenic CO2 emissions
(The 4 ‰ Initiative) Long term global warming impacts hidden by short term solutions?
(Jørgensen and Hauschild, 2013)
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Persson et al. 2015 (based on AR5, IPCC 2013)
Rad.
forc
. (m
W/m
2)
Rad.
forc
. (m
W/m
2)
Climate impact of CO2 and CH4
Radiative forcing of one million tonnes of CO2 Radiative forcing of one million tonnes of CH4
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Year
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Persson et al. 2015 (based on AR5, IPCC 2013)
Rad.
forc
. (m
W/m
2)
Rad.
forc
. (m
W/m
2)
Climate impact of CO2 and CH4
Radiative forcing of one million tonnes of CO2 Radiative forcing of one million tonnes of CH4
DT
DT
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Biogenic versus fossil CH4
Atmospheric CH4 is broken
down to CO2
Short term C cycle excluded
CO2 from biogenic CH4
excluded (∙∙∙∙∙)
Long term C cycle included
CO2 from fossil CH4
included (∙∙∙∙∙)
CO2
CH4
Organic C
Fossil C
CH4
•
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Case study
Aim
Determine the importance of carbon
sequestration regarding the GWP of dairy
production at various time scales
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Method
Farm A [13] Farm B [27]
Land area [ha] 35 70
Grassland [%] 99 54
Maize land [%] 1 32
Dairy cows [#] 57 124
FPCM [kg cow-1 yr-1] 8,047 9,082
FPCM [kg ha-1 yr-1] 13,449 18,361
FADN, 2011;2012;2013
grass based [Farm A] vs maize based [Farm B]
How does C seq. affect the GWP of the farms over time?
How does C seq. affect the comparison between farms?
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Cradle-to-farm gate analysis
Feed & food
Fertilizers pesticides, fuels
Processing Retail Consumption
Milk Manure
Dairy husbandry
Grass Maize
Roughage
Fattening
Cows
CO2 ; CH4 ; N2O
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Carbon sequestration in grasslands
Introductory Carbon Balance Model (ICBM) (Kätterer and Andrén, 1999)
Simulates soil C dynamics based on soil characteristics, nitrogen input, climatic conditions, and management operations
Calibrated and tested for the Dutch situation by Vellinga et al. (2004)
Most optimal scenario C seq.
grassland what is the
maximal potential?
No increase in soil C maize
land
No C losses grass- and
maize land
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Results – pulse of emission (per ton fat-and-protein-corrected milk)
GWP (100 yrs) / t FPCM
Farm A (grass)
1139 kg CO2eq
Farm B (maize)
1078 kg CO2eq
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GWP (100 yrs) / t FPCM
Farm A (grass) (kg CO2eq)
Excl C seq 1139 100%
Incl C seq (t100) 1020 90%
Incl C seq (t20) 1120 98%
Farm B (maize)
Excl C seq 1078
Incl C seq (t100) 1024
Incl C seq (t20) 1069
Results – pulse of emission (per ton fat-and-protein-corrected milk)
-
100
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Results – continuous emission (per ton fat-and-protein-corrected milk yr-1)
GWP (100 yrs) / t FPCM
Farm A (grass)
10% lower with C-seq compared to
without C seq
12.2 billion litres of milk (NL, 2013)
1.4 billion tonnes of CO2 per year;
DT 0.004 ˚C lower with C-seq
compared to without C-seq
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RF per ton FPCM of Farm A (grass) relative to that of Farm B (maize)
Results – continuous emission (per ton fat-and-protein-corrected milk yr-1)
Excl C seq.
Incl C seq.
100
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Conclusions
Mitigation potentail of carbon sequestration highly dependent on grassland age and storage time Carbon sequestration can lower the impact of a system for a certain time period buying time
At the long term, measures to reduce annual emissions might be more efficient than carbon sequestration for reducing global warming
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Thank you for your attention