daily technical trader - qatar march 17, 2016

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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Thursday, 17 March 2016

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Target

IQCD 106.10 110.00

DHBK 36.90 38.00

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 10,291.33 0.90 8.2

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 10,400 10,500 10,700

Support 10,250 10,000 9,800

QSE Index Commentary

Overview:

The QSE Index maintained an uptick in

yesterday’s session, accompanied by

around 15% increase in traded volume.

That is a positive sign, provided that the

Index reaches and breaks above the

10,400 level.

Expected Resistance Level: 10,400

Expected Support Level: 10,250

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 16 Mar 15 Mar %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 444.6 456.8 -2.7

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 541.5 536.9 0.9

Volume (mn) 19.4 16.8 15.5

Number of Trans. 6,386 6,691 -4.6

Companies Traded 38 37 2.7

Market Breadth 20:14 12:21 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 16,455.05 1.2 63.2

All Share Index 2,799.90 1.0 62.9

Banks 2,781.26 1.1 57.3

Industrials 3,055.81 1.1 56.8

Transportation 2,415.80 0.6 54.3

Real Estate 2,420.72 1.2 67.4

Insurance 4,562.28 0.9 64.2

Telecoms 1,110.90 1.4 63.3

Consumer Goods 6,267.45 -0.3 70.0

Al Rayan Islamic 3,877.50 1.2 66.9

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QGMD 14.20 0.0 82.8

ZHCD 92.00 -0.1 81.3

NLCS 17.57 3.4 80.5

SIIS 13.56 0.7 77.5

VFQS 13.00 4.8 74.7

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QSE Index (30min)



IQCD

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 106.10 1.05 69,008

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 106.10 110.00 113.00

Support 102.40 100.00 98.00

Commentary

Overview:

On the 2nd

of this month, we sent out a

buy recommendation on the name and it

did reach our first expected target of

QR110.00. That’s a 3.3% up from our

trigger price of QR106.50. The name has

pulled back yet stabilized above the

downtrend channel seen on the daily

chart.

Expected Target Price: QR110.00 –

QR113.00

A breakaway above QR106.10 triggers the

buy recommendation.

Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR102.40

(Daily)


(Hourly)



DHBK

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 36.90 -0.27 212,950

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 37.00 38.00 39.00

Support 36.50 36.00 35.00

Commentary

Overview:

We recommended buying the name on

the 8th

of last February. The bank jumped

since then to our second expected target

of QR40.50; that’s just over 7.7% from our

trigger price (at the time) of QR37.60.

Price also retreated to the 61.8%

Fibonacci retracement and could bounce

from there.

Expected Target Price: QR38.00 – QR39.00

A breakaway above QR37.00 triggers the

buy recommendation.

Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR36.00

(Daily)


(Hourly)



Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 10,291.33 10,052.86 10,121.18 10,163.39 10,231.71 10,300.03 10,342.24 10,410.56 9,653.70 10,160.02 10,951.13

Total Return 16,455.05 16,073.76 16,183.00 16,250.49 16,359.73 16,468.97 16,536.46 16,645.70 15,114.23 15,846.77 17,048.74

All Share 2,799.90 2,740.86 2,757.77 2,768.23 2,785.14 2,802.05 2,812.51 2,829.42 2,585.93 2,714.01 2,923.87

Al Rayan Islamic 3,877.50 3,781.25 3,808.82 3,825.86 3,853.44 3,881.01 3,898.05 3,925.63 3,502.03 3,745.47 4,133.65

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 35.90 34.77 35.09 35.29 35.62 35.94 36.14 36.47 34.50 36.62 40.48

CBQK 45.00 44.20 44.51 44.69 45.00 45.31 45.49 45.80 42.15 45.34 50.45

DHBK 36.90 36.30 36.49 36.61 36.80 36.99 37.11 37.30 38.97 42.68 47.34

QIBK 104.00 101.60 102.29 102.71 103.40 104.09 104.51 105.20 95.11 104.68 107.69

QIIK 70.50 70.03 70.22 70.34 70.53 70.72 70.84 71.03 65.23 67.07 72.19

Insurance

QATI 87.00 85.13 85.67 86.00 86.53 87.07 87.40 87.93 71.78 72.79 77.51

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 107.50 96.10 99.84 102.16 105.90 109.64 111.96 115.70 97.79 117.23 146.56

Industrials

IQCD 106.10 101.57 102.87 103.67 104.97 106.27 107.07 108.37 102.42 106.24 119.27

QEWS 199.00 194.87 196.09 196.84 198.07 199.29 200.04 201.27 195.33 202.70 209.58

GISS 36.85 35.48 35.88 36.13 36.53 36.93 37.18 37.58 38.53 46.74 58.42

QIGD 39.30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 32.67 36.46 43.02

Real Estate

BRES 35.40 34.47 34.81 35.02 35.37 35.71 35.92 36.27 35.01 38.30 42.99

UDCD 20.00 19.25 19.49 19.64 19.88 20.12 20.27 20.51 19.87 20.86 22.51

ERES 17.15 16.56 16.73 16.84 17.00 17.17 17.28 17.44 14.68 15.83 17.00

MRDS 13.81 12.06 12.56 12.87 13.37 13.87 14.18 14.68 11.52 12.96 14.78

Telecommunication

ORDS 87.30 85.10 86.13 86.77 87.80 88.83 89.47 90.50 81.64 77.24 78.64

VFQS 13.00 12.04 12.34 12.53 12.83 13.13 13.32 13.62 10.96 11.77 13.48

Transportation

QGTS 22.49 21.70 21.93 22.07 22.29 22.52 22.66 22.88 22.26 23.11 22.74

QNNS 96.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 91.86 94.27 95.87 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price


Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening and

the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is lower

than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus considered

a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative price

direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.


Contacts:

Zaid al-Nafoosi, CMT, CFTe Saugata Sarkar Shahan Keushgerian

Senior Research Analyst Head of Research Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

QNB Financial Services SPC

Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

PO Box 24025

Doha, Qatar

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daily technical trader - qatar march 17, 2016

Economy & Finance