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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Monday, 04 April 2016

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Target

GISS 35.45 34.20

QFLS 155.00 149.80

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 10,251.97 -1.20 7.5

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 10,400 10,500 10,700

Support 10,250 10,000 9,800

QSE Index Commentary

Overview:

Traded activity dropped even further in

the start of the week and the month for

that matter. The Index is at important

level and breaking below the 10,250 could

take us back to the 10,100 in the very

short term then 10,000 points.

Expected Resistance Level: 10,400

Expected Support Level: 10,250

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 01 Apr 31 Mar %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 108.8 490.0 -77.8

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 533.7 554.0 -3.7

Volume (mn) 3.1 10.7 -71.6

Number of Trans. 2,317 6,637 -65.1

Companies Traded 39 41 -4.9

Market Breadth 1:37 23:14 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 16,520.96 -1.2 63.6

All Share Index 2,855.73 -0.9 69.2

Banks 2,753.58 -1.4 57.2

Industrials 3,208.77 -0.3 73.1

Transportation 2,514.26 -1.7 70.0

Real Estate 2,491.62 -1.3 66.1

Insurance 4,447.14 -0.7 54.3

Telecoms 1,198.10 1.3 74.0

Consumer Goods 6,642.94 0.6 73.0

Al Rayan Islamic 4,044.34 -0.4 74.2

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QIGD 65.30 9.9 87.9

ABQK 46.00 -4.2 72.6

ZHCD 92.80 0.0 71.0

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QSE Index (30min)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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GISS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 35.45 -2.34 317,398

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 36.80 37.20 40.00

Support 35.40 34.20 33.75

Commentary

Overview:

We sent out a two sell recommendations

on the name and it has been moving down

since. We reiterate the sell

recommendation; nothing changed to

reverse the expected direction of the

name. In case you have not sold the name

yet but considering doing so, please use

the below price action as a guideline.

Expected Price Retreat: QR34.20 –

QR33.75

A price breach below QR35.40 triggers the

sell recommendation.

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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QFLS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 155.00 -0.32 57,115

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 158.00 159.60 161.40

Support 154.60 149.80 147.60

Commentary

Overview:

We see that the name has gained almost

60% from its January low this year. In

addition, the RSI has been moving in

negative divergence vs the recent price

tops. As a result, the price might see a

correction if weakness persists.

Expected Price Retreat: QR149.80 –

QR147.60

A price breach below QR154.60 triggers

the sell recommendation.

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 10,251.97 10,153.78 10,197.06 10,223.80 10,267.08 10,310.36 10,337.10 10,380.38 9,871.72 10,018.67 10,850.26

Total Return 16,520.96 16,362.75 16,432.49 16,475.57 16,545.32 16,615.06 16,658.14 16,727.89 15,578.69 15,689.84 16,923.56

All Share 2,855.73 2,832.32 2,842.58 2,848.92 2,859.19 2,869.45 2,875.79 2,886.06 2,664.69 2,687.62 2,901.68

Al Rayan Islamic 4,044.34 3,990.53 4,008.75 4,020.01 4,038.24 4,056.46 4,067.72 4,085.95 3,628.86 3,698.32 4,095.04

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 35.40 35.07 35.22 35.31 35.47 35.62 35.71 35.87 35.01 35.79 39.90

CBQK 40.40 39.40 39.90 40.20 40.70 41.20 41.50 42.00 42.73 44.18 49.77

DHBK 37.00 36.80 36.91 36.99 37.10 37.21 37.29 37.40 38.52 41.21 46.36

QIBK 101.60 98.53 99.87 100.70 102.03 103.37 104.20 105.53 98.11 102.97 107.59

QIIK 66.00 65.47 65.77 65.96 66.27 66.57 66.76 67.07 67.95 66.63 71.69

Insurance

QATI 82.00 79.33 80.10 80.57 81.33 82.10 82.57 83.33 76.28 73.36 77.62

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 113.90 103.37 106.38 108.25 111.27 114.28 116.15 119.17 100.90 111.53 142.58

Industrials

IQCD 107.00 105.20 105.85 106.25 106.90 107.55 107.95 108.60 104.23 104.71 117.51

QEWS 207.50 197.83 201.08 203.09 206.33 209.58 211.59 214.83 195.38 200.88 208.36

GISS 35.45 34.98 35.21 35.35 35.58 35.81 35.95 36.18 36.80 43.67 55.89

QIGD 65.30 59.17 60.92 62.01 63.77 65.52 66.61 68.37 36.00 36.41 42.55

Real Estate

BRES 35.55 34.98 35.21 35.35 35.58 35.81 35.95 36.18 35.19 37.21 42.06

UDCD 19.31 19.14 19.23 19.29 19.39 19.48 19.54 19.64 19.97 20.29 22.28

ERES 18.00 17.63 17.77 17.86 18.00 18.14 18.23 18.37 15.58 15.69 17.02

MRDS 13.90 13.53 13.69 13.79 13.95 14.11 14.21 14.37 11.96 12.78 14.55

Telecommunication

ORDS 95.00 91.47 92.69 93.44 94.67 95.89 96.64 97.87 85.57 78.70 78.44

VFQS 12.12 11.86 11.96 12.03 12.13 12.23 12.30 12.40 11.22 11.56 13.24

Transportation

QGTS 23.40 23.06 23.22 23.33 23.49 23.65 23.76 23.92 22.63 22.91 22.78

QNNS 90.10 89.17 89.70 90.03 90.57 91.10 91.43 91.97 92.28 93.48 95.48 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening and

the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is lower

than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus considered

a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative price

direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts:

Zaid al-Nafoosi, CMT, CFTe Saugata Sarkar Shahan Keushgerian

Senior Research Analyst Head of Research Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509

zaid.alnafoosi@qnbfs.com.qa saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa

QNB Financial Services SPC

Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

PO Box 24025

Doha, Qatar

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We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources

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