daily markets overview - yardeni research · 2020-05-19 · table of contents table of...
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Market Briefing:Daily Markets Overview
Yardeni Research, Inc.
May 22, 2020
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Joe Abbott732-497-5306
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
May 22, 2020 / Daily Markets Overview www.yardeni.com
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S&P 500 Index & Sectors 1P/Es & VIX 2Bonds 3Yield Curve 4-5High Yield Bonds 6Municipal Bond Yields 7Dollar & Commodities 8Growth vs Value 9S&P 500 Equal-Weighted vs. Cap-Weighted 10Foreign Interest Rates 11
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20211700
1900
2100
2300
2500
2700
2900
3100
3300
3500
1700
1900
2100
2300
2500
2700
2900
3100
3300
3500
5/22
S&P 500 INDEX(daily) 3386.15
2237.4
Latest (2955.45)
Source: Standard & Poor’s.Note: Dotted lines show previous years’ closing prices.
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Figure 1.
1 2 3 4 5 8 9 10 11 12 15 16 17 18 19 22 23 24 25 26 29 30-50-45-40-35-30-25-20-15-10-5051015202530354045505560657075
-50-45-40-35-30-25-20-15-10-505
1015202530354045505560657075
S&P SECTORS PERFORMANCE: MAY 2020 MONTH-TO-DATE(percent change from last trading day of April)May 2020
S&P 500 Index (1.2)Consumer Discretionary (2.9)Consumer Staples (-1.9)Energy (0.4)Financials (-3.6)Health Care (-0.5)Industrials (-0.7)Information Technology (4.9)Materials (2.1)Real Estate (-5.9)Communication Services (4.9)Utilities (-2.8)
Source: Standard & Poor’s. May 2020 M-T-D
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Figure 2.
S&P 500 Index & Sectors
Page 1 / May 22, 2020 / Daily Markets Overview www.yardeni.com
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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20228
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12
14
16
18
20
22
24
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
5/22
FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES*(daily)
S&P Forward P/EsS&P 500 (21.0)S&P 400 (20.1)S&P 600 (22.0)
* Daily stock price index divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
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Figure 3.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
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20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
VIX: S&P 500
5/22
Latest (28.2)
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange.
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Figure 4.
P/Es & VIX
Page 2 / May 22, 2020 / Daily Markets Overview www.yardeni.com
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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-2
0
2
4
6
-2
0
2
4
6
5/22
5/22
10-YEAR TREASURY vs 10-YEAR TIPS(percent, daily)
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
10-Year TreasuryBond Yield (0.66)TIPS Yield (-0.46)
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Figure 5.
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
5/22
WIDELY-USED PROXY FOR 10-YEAR EXPECTED INFLATION RATE*(percent, daily)
Expected Inflation Proxy (1.12)
* Nominal 10-year US Treasury bond yield minus 10-year TIPS yield.Source: Federal Reserve Board.
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Figure 6.
Bonds
Page 3 / May 22, 2020 / Daily Markets Overview www.yardeni.com
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2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020.0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
.0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
5/22
US TREASURY 10-YEAR & 2-YEAR YIELDS & FED FUNDS RATE(percent, daily)
Interest Rates10-Year Yield (0.66)2-Year Yield (0.17)Fed FundsTarget Rate (0.13)
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
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Figure 7.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-100
-50
0
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350
400
450
-100
-50
0
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150
200
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300
350
400
450
5/22
YIELD CURVE(basis points, daily)
10-Year Treasury MinusFederal Funds Target Rate (54)
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
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Figure 8.
Yield Curve
Page 4 / May 22, 2020 / Daily Markets Overview www.yardeni.com
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2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-.2
.0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
-.2
.0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
5/22
2-YEAR TREASURY NOTE YIELD & FEDERAL FUNDS RATE FUTURES(percent)
Interest Rates2-Year Treasury Yield (0.17)Fed Funds Rate12-month Forward Futures (0.02)Federal Funds Target Rate (0.13)
Source: US Treasury & Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
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Figure 9.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-1.5
-1.0
-.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
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6.0
-1.5
-1.0
-.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
5/21
5/22
5/22
10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS(percent)
10-Year YieldsGermany (-0.49)Japan (0.00)US (0.66)
Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 10.
Yield Curve
Page 5 / May 22, 2020 / Daily Markets Overview www.yardeni.com
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97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 225
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15
20
25
5
10
15
20
25
YIELD ON US HIGH-YIELD CORPORATE BONDS(percent, daily)
5/21
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
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eni.c
om
Figure 11.
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
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800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
YIELD SPREAD US HIGH-YIELD CORPORATE LESS 10-YEAR US TREASURY BONDS(basis points, daily)
5/21
Spread (681)
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Federal Reserve Board.
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Figure 12.
High Yield Bonds
Page 6 / May 22, 2020 / Daily Markets Overview www.yardeni.com
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
5/21
US AAA MUNICIPAL YIELD(percent)
Yield (1.34)
Source: Merrill Lynch.
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Figure 13.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
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US AAA MUNICIPAL BOND YIELD LESS 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD SPREAD(basis points, daily)
5/21
Spread (66)
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Merrill Lynch and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
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Figure 14.
Municipal Bond Yields
Page 7 / May 22, 2020 / Daily Markets Overview www.yardeni.com
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2285
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
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135
85
90
95
100
105
110
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120
125
130
135
5/22
JP MORGAN NOMINAL BROAD EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE(2010=100, daily)
* Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong,Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru,Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom,Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States.Source: JP Morgan.
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Figure 15.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
50
100
150
200
300
400
500
600
700
5/21
5/22
COMMODITY PRICES
Brent Crude Oil Price(dollars per barrel)
CRB Raw Industrials Index(1967=100)
Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 16.
Dollar & Commodities
Page 8 / May 22, 2020 / Daily Markets Overview www.yardeni.com
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97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.30
.35
.40
.45
.50
.55
.60
.65
.70
.30
.35
.40
.45
.50
.55
.60
.65
.70
5/22
5/22
S&P 500 GROWTH & VALUE RELATIVE TO S&P 500
Relative to S&P 500*GrowthValue
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* Rising (falling) line indicates that the index is outperforming (underperforming) the S&P 500.Source: Standard & Poor’s and Haver Analytics.
Figure 17.
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
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20
30
40
50
5/22
S&P 500 GROWTH vs VALUE SPREAD(yearly percent change spread, basis points)
S&P 500 Growth Outperforms S&P 500 Value
S&P 500 Growth Underperforms S&P 500 Value
Source: Standard & Poor’s and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 18.
Growth vs Value
Page 9 / May 22, 2020 / Daily Markets Overview www.yardeni.com
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90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
5/22
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S&P 500 RATIO: EQUAL-WEIGHTED TO MARKET-CAP-WEIGHTED
Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s.
Figure 19.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22250
1000
1750
2500
3250
4000
4750
5500
250
1000
1750
2500
3250
4000
4750
5500
5/22
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S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEXES(ratio scale)
Market-cap-weighted S&P 500Equal-weighted S&P 500
Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s.
Figure 20.
S&P 500 Equal-Weighted vs. Cap-Weighted
Page 10 / May 22, 2020 / Daily Markets Overview www.yardeni.com
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-1.0
-.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
-1.0
-.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
5/22
ECB OFFICIAL RATE & GERMAN 10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD(percent)
10-Year German Bond Yield (-0.48)ECB Deposit Facility Rate (-0.50)
Source: European Central Bank and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 21.
Foreign Interest Rates
Page 11 / May 22, 2020 / Daily Markets Overview www.yardeni.com
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