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Stock Market Handbook
Yardeni Research, Inc.
December 24, 2020
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Joe Abbott732-497-5306
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
December 24, 2020 / Stock Market Handbook www.yardeni.com
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Historical Monthly Returns 1Bull Markets 2-4Bear Markets 5-7Bull/Bear Ratios of 1.0 or Less & Bull Markets 8Presidential Cycles 9-10Returns 11-12ISM Super Composite Index 13-14Confidence, Boom Bust Barometer, S&P 500 15S&P 500 Sectors 16-20Selected Consumer Discretionary Industries 21-25Selected Consumer Staples Industries 26-28Selected Energy Industries 29-30Selected Financials Industries 31-32Selected Health Care Industries 33Selected Industrials & Computers Industries 34-36Selected Materials Industries 37-40Selected Transportation Industries 41Selected Utilities Industries 42Januaries & Annual S&P 500 Returns 43Dow Jones Index 44-45S&P 500 Forward P/E & Expected Inflation 46S&P 500 & Crisis 47S&P 500 Performance 48
Figure 1.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec-80
-55
-30
-5
20
45
70
95
-80
-55
-30
-5
20
45
70
95
-27
S&P 500 INDEX: PERCENTAGE OF 1-MONTH HOLDING PERIODSUP OR DOWN FOR ALL YEARS 1921 - 2013*
Up Months
Down Months
(percent)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
3.8
2.7 3.03.6 3.5
3.0
4.43.9 3.5 3.7 3.7
2.8
-3.4 -3.1-2.5
-4.0 -4.1-3.6
-2.7-3.6 -4.1
-4.7-4.2
-3.2
S&P 500 INDEX: AVERAGE CHANGE OF 1-MONTH HOLDING PERIODSUP OR DOWN FOR ALL YEARS 1921 - 2013 Up Months
Down Months(percent)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec-1.5
-1.0
-.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
-1.5
-1.0
-.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1.3
-0.2
0.5
1.3
-0.2
0.7
1.5
0.7
-1.2
0.40.6
1.5
S&P 500 INDEX: AVERAGE 1-MONTH NONANNUALIZEDCHANGE FOR ALL YEARS 1928-2012(percent)
Average gain
Average loss
* Excludes January of 1928, and data is through August 2012. No change (0.00%) month of September, 1979 counted as up month.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.
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Historical Monthly Returns
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Figure 2.
1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 19306
11
16
21
26
31
36
6
11
16
21
26
31
36T P T P T P
S&P 500 BULL MARKETS(ratio scale)
+46%19 months
+58%28 months
+173%41 months
+47%5 months
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1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 19404
9
14
19
24
29
343944
4
9
14
19
24
29
343944
T P T
+169%20 months
+132%23 months
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1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 19507
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25P T P T
+69%15 months
+75%30 months
+43%12 months
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Note: P/T = peaks and troughs of business cycle. Shaded areas are bull markets.
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Bull Markets
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Figure 3.
1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 196015
21
27
33
39
45
51
57
636975
15
21
27
33
39
45
51
57
636975
P T P T P
S&P 500 BULL MARKETS(ratio scale)
+119%34 months
+56%19 months
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1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 197050
75
100
125
150
50
75
100
125
150P T P T
+39%14 months
+80%44 months
+33%11 months
+24%8 months
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1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 198060
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140T P T P T
+51%11 months
+33%14 months
+54%9 months
+31%12 months
+23%6 months
+28%15 months
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Note: P/T = peaks and troughs of business cycle. Shaded areas are bull markets.
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Bull Markets
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Figure 4.
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 199090
130
170
210
250
290
330
370
410450
90
130
170
210
250
290
330
370
410450
P T P T P
S&P 500 BULL MARKETS(ratio scale)
+43%8 months
+229%60 months
+65%31 months
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1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000280
400
520
640
760
880
1000
11201240136014801600
280
400
520
640
760
880
1000
11201240136014801600
P T
+166%43 months
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021600
1100
1600
2100
2600
3100
3600
4100
600
1100
1600
2100
2600
3100
3600
4100P T P T
+102%84 months
+401%131 months
12/24
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Note: P/T = peaks and troughs of business cycle. Shaded areas are bull markets.
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Bull Markets
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Figure 5.
1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 19305
15
25
35
45
55
5
15
25
35
45
55T P T P T P
S&P 500 BEAR MARKETS(ratio scale)
-14.8% -9.4% -44.3%
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1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 19404
9
14
19
24
29
343944
4
9
14
19
24
29
343944
T P T
-83.0% -31.8% -54.5% -31.9%
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1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 19507
12
17
22
27
7
12
17
22
27P T P T
-31.9% -34.5% -13.1% -26.6% -20.6%
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Note: P/T = peaks and troughs of business cycle. Shaded areas are bear markets.
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Bear Markets
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Figure 6.
1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 196016
21
26
31
36
41
46
515661667176
16
21
26
31
36
41
46
515661667176
P T P T P
S&P 500 BEAR MARKETS(ratio scale)
-14.8% -20.7%
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1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 197050
75
100
125
150
50
75
100
125
150P T P T
-28.0% -22.2% -36.1%
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1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 198060
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140P T P T P T
-36.1% -48.2% -19.4% -17.1%
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Note: P/T = peaks and troughs of business cycle. Shaded areas are bear markets.
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Bear Markets
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Figure 7.
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 199090
150
210
270
330
390
450
510570
90
150
210
270
330
390
450
510570
P T P T P
S&P 500 BEAR MARKETS(ratio scale)
-17.1% -27.1% -33.5% -19.9%
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1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000280
400
520
640
760
880
1000
112012401360148016001720
280
400
520
640
760
880
1000
112012401360148016001720
P T
-19.9% -19.2%
-49.1%
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022600
1000
1400
1800
2200
2600
3000
34003800
600
1000
1400
1800
2200
2600
3000
34003800
P T P T
-49.1% -56.8% -19.4% -19.8% -33.9%
12/24
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Note: P/T = peaks and troughs of business cycle. Shaded areas are bear markets.
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Bear Markets
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23200
600
1000
1400
1800
2200
2600
3000340038004200
200
600
1000
1400
1800
2200
2600
3000340038004200
S&P 500 INDEX vs BULL/BEAR RATIOOF 1.0 OR LESS*
(ratio scale)
12/24
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* Green shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 8.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 231600
6600
11600
16600
21600
26600
31600
36600
1600
6600
11600
16600
21600
26600
31600
36600
DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIOOF 1.0 OR LESS*
(ratio scale)
12/24
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* Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 9.
Bull/Bear Ratios of 1.0 or Less & Bull Markets
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50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 2010
610
1210
1810
241030103610
10
610
1210
1810
241030103610
-6.6% -14.3 23.1 9.1 -11.4 -17.4 -11.5 -9.7 26.3 27.3 7.1 31.0 -13.0 3.0 23.5 29.6
S&P 500 INDEX & FIRST YEAR OF A PRESIDENT’S TERM: 1951-present
(Average = 6.0%, ratio scale)
Nov
Note: Shaded vertical lines are the first year of a President’s term. Data above timeline shows Dec/Dec percentage change using end of month data.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 10.
25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 253
703
1403
2103280335034203
3
703
1403
2103280335034203
-28.5 -5.9 25.2 12.4 -11.9 21.8 45.0 38.1 -11.8 -13.1 -0.1 -29.7 1.1 14.8 14.6 -6.6 -1.5 26.7 -23.4 13.6 12.8 11.4
S&P 500 INDEX* & SECOND YEAR OF PRESIDENTIAL TERMS: 1928-now
(average = 4.8%, ratio scale)
Nov
* End-of-month daily data through 12/31/2016.Note: Shaded areas are the second years of presidential terms. Data above timeline are percentage changes for the second year using daily price dataSource: Standard & Poor’s.
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Figure 11.
Presidential Cycles
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25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 253
703
1403
2103280335034203
3
703
1403
2103280335034203
-47.1 41.4 -5.5 19.4 0.0 16.5 26.4 8.5 18.9 20.1 10.8 31.6 12.3 17.3 2.0 26.3 34.1 19.5 26.4 3.5 0.0 -0.7
S&P 500 INDEX* & THIRD YEAR OF PRESIDENTIAL TERMS: 1928-now
(average = 12.8%, ratio scale)
Nov
* End-of-month daily data through 12/31/2016.Note: Shaded areas are the third years of presidential terms. Data above timeline are percentage changes for the third year using daily price data.Source: Standard & Poor’s.
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Figure 12.
25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 253
703
1403
2103280335034203
3
703
1403
2103280335034203
-15.1 27.9 -15.3 13.8 -0.7 11.8 2.6 -3.0 13.0 7.7 15.8 19.1 25.8 1.4 12.4 4.5 20.3 -10.1 9.0 -38.5 13.4 9.5
S&P 500 INDEX* & FOURTH YEAR OF PRESIDENTIAL TERMS: 1928-now
(average = 5.7%, ratio scale)
Nov
* End-of-month daily data through 12/31/2016.Note: Shaded areas are the fourth years of presidential terms. Data above timeline are percentage changes for the fourth year using daily data.Source: Standard & Poor’s.
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Figure 13.
Presidential Cycles
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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec-1
0
1
2
-1
0
1
2S&P 500 INDEX: average change each month 1946-2012 (67 years)
1.03%
-0.37%
1.31%1.43%
0.20%
0.02%
0.91%
-0.13%
-0.72%
0.91%
1.18%
1.83%
Note: Updated through August 2012.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 14.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0S&P 500 INDEX: average of gain years each month 1946-2012 (67 years)
4.02%
2.38%
3.19%
3.54%
2.95%
2.67%
4.07%
3.08%3.40%
3.84% 3.90%
2.99%
Note: Updated through August 2012.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 15.
Returns
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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
-5.0
-4.5
-4.0
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5S&P 500 INDEX: average of loss years each month 1946-2012 (67 years)
-3.87%
-3.19%
-2.28%
-2.89%-3.18%
-2.88% -2.77%
-4.08%-3.86%
-3.59%-3.29%
-2.10%
Note: Updated through July 2012.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 16.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
41
33
4445
37
3536
37
28
4041
51
S&P 500 INDEX: # of months up each month 1946-2012 (67 years)
Note: Updated through August 2012.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 17.
Returns
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201430
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140ISM SUPER COMPOSITE INDEX vs. CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX
ISM Super Composite Index*
Consumer Optimism Index**
* Sum of ISM manufacturing composite and ISM nonmanfacturing composite.** Average of Conference Board and University of Michigan measures.
Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the Conference Board and University of Michigan Survey Research Center.
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Figure 18.
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22700
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
2100
2300
2500
2700
2900
3100
3300
3500
3700
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Dec
NovCONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX vs. S&P 500
Consumer Optimism Index*
S&P 500 Index
* Average of Conference Board and University of Michigan measures.Source: The Conference Board and University of Michigan Survey Research Center and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 19.
ISM Super Composite Index
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016700
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
2100
2300
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140ISM SUPER COMPOSITE INDEX vs. S&P 500 INDEX
ISM SuperComposite Index*
S&P 500 Index
* Sum of ISM manufacturing composite and ISM nonmanfacturing composite.Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 20.
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022700
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
2100
2300
2500
2700
2900
3100
3300
3500
3700
40
60
80
100
120
140
Nov
NovNATIONAL CONFIDENCE INDEX vs. S&P 500 INDEX
National Confidence Index:Average of COI* andISM Super Composite**
S&P 500 Index
** Sum of ISM manufacturing composite and ISM nonmanfacturing composite.* Average of Conference Board and University of Michigan measures.
Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM), The Conference Board, University of Michigan Survey Research Center and Standard & Poor’sCorporation.
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Figure 21.
ISM Super Composite Index
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220102030405060708090100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240250
20
30
40
50
60
70
10/13
12/19
YRI BOOM-BUST BAROMETER & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX
Boom-Bust Barometer*
Consumer Comfort Index
* CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average.Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor.
yard
eni.c
om
Figure 22.
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2220
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
250
750
1250
1750
2250
2750
3250
3750
10/13
YRI FUNDAMENTAL STOCK MARKET INDICATOR and S&P 500 INDEX
S&P 500 Index
YRI Fundamental StockMarket Indicator*
* Average of Consumer Comfort Index and Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims,four-week moving average.Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor, and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 23.
Confidence, Boom Bust Barometer, S&P 500
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70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
.35
.40
.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
.35
.40
S&P 500 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY(as a ratio of S&P 500) 12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly. Monthlydata an average of Auto, Auto Parts, Building Materials, Footwear, Homebuilding, Household Furnishing, Leisure Time, Newspapers, Publishing,and Textile Apparel industry ratios.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 24.
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
.35
.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
.35
S&P 500 CONSUMER STAPLES(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly. Monthlydata an average of Alcoholic Beverage, Drug Store, Entertainment, Food, Food Retail, Household Product, Personal Care, Restaurant, Soft Drink, Tobacco,and TV industry ratios.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 25.
S&P 500 Sectors
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70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.00
.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
.35
.40
.45
.50
.55
.00
.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
.35
.40
.45
.50
.55
S&P 500 ENERGY(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 26.
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.1
.2
.3
.4
.1
.2
.3
.4
S&P 500 FINANCIALS(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 27.
S&P 500 Sectors
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78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
S&P 500 HEALTH CARE(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly. Monthlydata an average of Hospital Management, Medical Products, and Pharmaceutical industry ratios.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 28.
48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.15
.20
.25
.30
.15
.20
.25
.30
S&P 500 INDUSTRIALS(as a ratio of S&P 500) 12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 29.
S&P 500 Sectors
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78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
S&P 500 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY(as a ratio of S&P 500) 12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly. Monthlydata an average of Communication Equipment, Hardware, Instrumentation, Semiconductor, and Software industry ratios.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 30.
78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
S&P 500 MATERIALS(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly. Monthlydata an average of Aluminum, Chemicals, Diversified Chemicals, Gold, Iron & Steel, Metals Mining, Paper & Forest Products, and PaperContainers & Packaging industry ratios.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 31.
S&P 500 Sectors
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80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.00
.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
.35
.00
.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
.35
S&P 500 COMMUNICATION SERVICES(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Monthly data an average of Long Distance and Telephone industry ratios.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 32.
48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
S&P 500 UTILITIES(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s.
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Figure 33.
S&P 500 Sectors
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48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.00
.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
.35
.40
.45
.50
.55
.60
.00
.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
.35
.40
.45
.50
.55
.60
S&P 500 APPAREL ACCESSORIES & LUXURY GOODS(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 34.
48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
S&P 500 AUTOMOBILES(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 35.
Selected Consumer Discretionary Industries
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48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.00
.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
.35
.40
.45
.00
.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
.35
.40
.45
S&P 500 BROADCASTING(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 36.
48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.00
.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
.00
.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
S&P 500 DEPARTMENT STORES(as a ratio of S&P 500)
9/18
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 37.
Selected Consumer Discretionary Industries
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48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
S&P 500 FOOTWEAR(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 38.
66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
.0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
S&P 500 HOMEBUILDING(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1989, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 39.
Selected Consumer Discretionary Industries
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48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
S&P 500 HOME FURNISHINGS(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 40.
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.00
.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
.00
.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
S&P 500 MOVIES & ENTERTAINMENT(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1989, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 41.
Selected Consumer Discretionary Industries
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48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.04
.08
.12
.16
.20
.24
.28
.32
.36
.04
.08
.12
.16
.20
.24
.28
.32
.36
S&P 500 PUBLISHING(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 42.
Selected Consumer Discretionary Industries
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60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
S&P 500 BREWERS(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1989, weekly thereafter.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 43.
48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
S&P 500 HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 44.
Selected Consumer Staples Industries
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60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0
.1
.2
.3
.0
.1
.2
.3
S&P 500 PACKAGED FOODS(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1989, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 45.
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
S&P 500 PERSONAL PRODUCTS(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1989, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 46.
Selected Consumer Staples Industries
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60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.00
.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
.00
.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
S&P 500 SOFT DRINKS(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1989, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 47.
48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
S&P 500 TOBACCO(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 48.
Selected Consumer Staples Industries
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60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
S&P 500 INTEGRATED OIL & GAS(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1989, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 49.
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
S&P 500 OIL & GAS DRILLING(as a ratio of S&P 500)
5/22
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1989, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yard
eni.c
om
Figure 50.
Selected Energy Industries
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60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0
.5
1.0
1.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
S&P 500 OIL & GASEQUIPMENT & SERVICES
(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1989, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 51.
Selected Energy Industries
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80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
.35
.40
.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
.35
.40
S&P 500 BANK COMPOSITE(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 52.
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1640
90
140
190
240
290
340
390
440
40
90
140
190
240
290
340
390
440
S&P 500 BANK COMPOSITE INDEX
12/30
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Ratio scale. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 53.
Selected Financials Industries
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48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.06
.08
.10
.12
.14
.16
.18
.20
.22
.24
.26
.28
.30
.32
.34
.36
.38
.40
.42
.44
.06
.08
.10
.12
.14
.16
.18
.20
.22
.24
.26
.28
.30
.32
.34
.36
.38
.40
.42
.44
S&P 500 LIFE & HEALTH INSURANCE(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 54.
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.06
.08
.10
.12
.14
.16
.18
.20
.22
.24
.26
.28
.30
.32
.06
.08
.10
.12
.14
.16
.18
.20
.22
.24
.26
.28
.30
.32
S&P 500 PROPERTY & CASUALTY INSURANCE
(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1989, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 55.
Selected Financials Industries
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60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
S&P 500 HEALTH CARE EQUIPMENT(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1989, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 56.
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
S&P 500 PHARMACEUTICALS(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1989, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 57.
Selected Health Care Industries
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48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
S&P 500 AEROSPACE/DEFENSE(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 58.
48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.00
.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
.35
.40
.45
.50
.55
.60
.00
.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
.35
.40
.45
.50
.55
.60
S&P 500 BUILDING PRODUCTS(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 59.
Selected Industrials & Computers Industries
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48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
.35
.40
.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
.35
.40
S&P 500 ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 60.
48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
S&P 500 MACHINERY(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 61.
Selected Industrials & Computers Industries
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60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
S&P 500 TECHNOLOGY HARDWARE, STORAGE & PERIPHERALS(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1989, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 62.
Selected Industrials & Computers Industries
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60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22.0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1.0
.0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1.0
S&P 500 ALUMINUM(as a ratio of S&P 500)
11/4
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1989, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 63.
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0
.1
.2
.3
.0
.1
.2
.3
S&P 500 CONTAINERS & PACKAGING(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1989, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 64.
Selected Materials Industries
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60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
.35
.40
.45
.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
.35
.40
.45
S&P 500 DIVERSIFIED CHEMICALS(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1989, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 65.
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
S&P 500 COPPER(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1989, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 66.
Selected Materials Industries
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60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.00
.15
.30
.45
.60
.75
.00
.15
.30
.45
.60
.75
S&P 500 GOLD(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1989, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 67.
48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.00
.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
.00
.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
S&P 500 METAL & GLASS CONTAINERS(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 68.
Selected Materials Industries
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60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
.35
.05
.10
.15
.20
.25
.30
.35
S&P 500 PAPER & FOREST PRODUCTS(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/18
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1989, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 69.
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
S&P 500 STEEL(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1989, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 70.
Selected Materials Industries
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60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.00
.25
.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
.00
.25
.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
S&P 500 AIRLINES(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1989, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 71.
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 240.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
0.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
S&P 500 RAILROADS(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1989, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 72.
Selected Transportation Industries
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60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
.0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
S&P 500 ELECTRIC UTILITIES(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1989, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 73.
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22.00
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.45
.50
.55
.00
.05
.10
.15
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.25
.30
.35
.40
.45
.50
.55
S&P 500 NATURAL GAS(as a ratio of S&P 500)
12/25
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1989, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 74.
Selected Utilities Industries
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60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40S&P 500 INDEX JANUARY EFFECT(percent change)
Entire Year
January
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 75.
Januaries & Annual S&P 500 Returns
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20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 6840
140
240
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440
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640
7408409401040
40
140
240
340
440
540
640
740840940
1040DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE PRICE INDEX (1922-1969)(ratio scale)
Source: Dow Jones Inc.
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Figure 76.
20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68-80
-60
-40
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120
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE (1922-1969)(yearly percent change)
Source: Dow Jones Inc.
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Figure 77.
Dow Jones Index
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80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200
10000
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30000
40000
0
10000
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30000
40000
12/24
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE PRICE INDEX (1970-2012)(ratio scale)
Source: Dow Jones Inc.
Figure 78.
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
-60
-40
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20
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80
12/23
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE (1970-2018)(yearly percent change)
Source: Dow Jones Inc.
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Figure 79.
Dow Jones Index
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-3
-2
-1
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1
2
3
8
10
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5/22
12/28
S&P 500 FORWARD P/E AND EXPECTED INFLATION
Expected Inflationin 5-year TIPS*
S&P 500 Forward P/E
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.* Nominal minus TIPS yield.
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Figure 80.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
1
2
3
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
5/22
12/27
S&P 500 P/E vs. EXPECTED INFLATION
Expected Inflationin 10-year TIPS**
S&P 500 P/E*
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
* Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.** Nominal minus TIPS yield.
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Figure 81.
S&P 500 Forward P/E & Expected Inflation
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60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 1850
350
650
950
1250
15501850215024502750
50
350
650
950
1250
15501850215024502750
S&P 500 & CRISES(ratio scale)
1973OilEmbargo
1974FranklinNational
1962CubanMissileCrisis
1970PennCentral
1979Oil Price Spike
1980SilverBubble
1982DrysdaleSecurities &Mexico Default
1984ContinentalIllinois
1987StockMarketCrash
1990PersianGulfCrisis
1990S&LCrisis
1994MexicanPesoCrisis
1997PacificRimCrisis
1998LTCM/RussianDefault Crisis
2001 WTCAttack
2002AccountingScandals
2007SubprimeMortgageMeltdown
2008 LehmanCollapse
2011Middle EastTurmoil.Japan NuclearDisaster.EuropeanSovereignDebt Crisis
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 82.
S&P 500 & Crisis
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70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9050
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
C C C C C C C C C C
S&P 500 INDEX PERFORMANCE3/6/12 MONTHS AFTER FIRST FED RATE CUT
3-m -0.9% 6-m 10.4%12-m 11.5%
3-m -13.6% 6-m -13.9%12-m 13.6%
3-m -2.0% 6-m 1.0%12-m -2.7%
3-m 19.5% 6-m 34.0%12-m 34.4%
3-m -8.3% 6-m -5.8%12-m -16.0%
3-m 21.8% 6-m 29.4%12-m 40.9%
3-m 2.3% 6-m 11.7%12-m 13.8%
3-m 11.4% 6-m 16.0%12-m 17.5%
3-m 1.3% 6-m 4.6%12-m 11.0%
3-m 9.5% 6-m 8.6%12-m 13.9%
C= Federal funds rate first cuts in easing cycle. Boxes show 3/6/12 month percent changes in S&P 500 following first rate cut. From 1971 thru June 1981using monthly lowest value for S&P 500 during month of first rate cut.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yard
eni.c
om
Figure 83.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20300
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C C C C
S&P 500 INDEXPERFORMANCE
3/6/12 MONTHS AFTERFIRST FED RATE CUT
3-m 5.1% 6-m 11.3%12-m 17.8%
3-m 18.4% 6-m 24.9%12-m 20.9%
3-m -17.9%6-m -8.4%12-m 13.5%
3-m -4.3%6-m -12.4%12-m -20.6%
12/25
C= Federal funds rate first cuts in easing cycle. Boxes show 3/6/12 month percent changes in S&P 500 following first rate cut.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
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Figure 84.
S&P 500 Performance
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