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May 11, 2018

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DAILY MARKET REPORT GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS | ASIAN STOCK INDICATORS |

CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | O I L |

GLOBAL MARKETS The dollar and U.S. government debt yields fell on Thursday while equity markets rallied after a modest

rise in consumer prices in April eased concerns the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates more than expected this year.

GLOBAL ECONOMIES

Australia plans cutting recurrent funding to its corporate regulator in coming years, even as a wide-ranging inquiry into the financial sector exposes corporate malfeasance and regulatory shortcomings.

The New Zealand dollar hit a five-month low on Thursday as the country's central bank wrongfooted hawks by keeping interest rates steady and saying the next move might be a cut or a hike.

China won't change its opposition to protectionism in its ongoing bilateral trade negotiations with the United States, its commerce ministry spokesman said on Thursday, even as a top Beijing official is expected to visit Washington soon for talks.

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank could debate conditions for exiting from ultra-easy policy if prospects for achieving its inflation target improve, reminding markets his radical stimulus programme won't last forever.

European countries are powerless to salvage the nuclear deal with Iran after the United States pulled out, the deputy head of the elite Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) said on Thursday.

The Bank of England held interest rates steady on Thursday and said weak growth during a snowy start to 2018 was likely to be temporary, but it wanted to be sure the economy was picking up in coming months before raising borrowing costs.

U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected in April, suggesting that inflation was increasing at a moderate pace, which could allow the Federal Reserve to continue gradually raising interest rates.

Canadian new home prices were unchanged in March, as expected, as higher prices in Ottawa were offset by a weaker Toronto market, data from Statistics Canada showed on Thursday.

May 11, 2018

GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC CALENDAR | ASIAN STOCK INDICATORS | CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | OIL Page | 2

GLOBAL MARKETS

U.S. & Global Markets – The dollar and U.S. government debt yields fell on Thursday while equity markets rallied after a modest rise in consumer prices in April eased concerns the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates more than expected this year. The U.S. Labor Department said its Consumer Price Index rose 0.2 percent last month, less than forecasts for 0.3 percent, as a moderation in healthcare prices offset increases in the cost of gasoline and rental accommodations. The dollar fell against the euro, the Japanese yen and a basket of other major currencies, while the Mexican peso and Brazilian real jumped more than 1 percent on the news. Equity markets rose as the soft inflation data reduced the prospect of the Fed boosting rates three more times in 2018, instead of four that many in the market were forecasting. Apple hit a record high at $190.37, with all 11 major S&P sectors posting gains. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes rose 8/32 in price to push yields down to 2.964 percent after breaching 3 percent on Wednesday. "Inflation is going to rise in year-over-year terms over the summer, but the rise remains moderate rather than sharp," said Eric Winograd, senior economist at AllianceBernstein LP. The soft read on inflation should give the Fed comfort that their gradual approach to raising rates is the correct one and ease market concerns, he said. "I view today's number as a slight positive for risk assets in the near term," Winograd said. However, the broad-based Underlying Inflation Gauge released by staff at the New York Fed later in the session showed 12-month inflation at 3.2 percent in April. "We did have a miss on CPI for this particular month, but I don't think the overall trend for higher inflation has materially changed," said Eddy Vataru, a portfolio manager at Osterweis Capital Management in San Francisco. "With oil prices north of $70, it's hard for me to believe this is going to be a persistent trend of inflation misses," he said. MSCI's broad gauge of global equity markets rose 0.84 percent and turned positive for the year as it hit three-weeks highs. Apple, Chinese internet giant Tencent, Exxon Mobil and Microsoft led the index's advance, while the same stocks lifted Wall Street, with the exception of Tencent. Emerging market stocks rose 1.41 percent, after Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan and the Nikkei in Tokyo both earlier closed higher. The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index of leading regional shares closed down 0.13 percent, but markets in London, Germany and France closed higher. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 196.99 points, or 0.8 percent, to 24,739.53. The S&P 500 gained 25.28 points, or 0.94 percent, to 2,723.07 and the Nasdaq Composite added 65.07 points, or 0.89 percent, to 7,404.98. The British pound hit a four-month low versus the greenback after the Bank of England left key borrowing costs unchanged. The recent softening in price growth among major economies has reduced expectations that most central banks other than the Fed will reduce their bond purchases or raise interest rates. The dollar index fell 0.39 percent, with the euro up 0.61 percent to $1.1922. The Japanese yen <JPY+> firmed 0.31 percent versus the greenback at 109.43 per dollar. Oil markets were choppy but settled higher as traders eyed further declines in Venezuelan crude production in tandem with bullish drawdowns in U.S. crude inventories.

Brent crude futures rose 26 cents to settle at $77.47 a barrel, after hitting $78 earlier in the day, their highest since November 2014. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled up 22 cents at $71.36. Gold rose on the weaker dollar and as tensions between the United States and Iran also supported the precious metal. U.S. gold futures for June delivery settled up $9.30 at $1,322.30 per ounce.

(Source Reuters – rizal) GLOBAL ECONOMIES

Australia – Australia plans cutting recurrent funding to its corporate regulator in coming years, even as a wide-ranging inquiry into the financial sector exposes corporate malfeasance and regulatory shortcomings. That will likely further weaken a watchdog already under staffing pressure and facing criticism for taking a soft touch approach to the banks, right when investors and the public are expecting a more robust regulator, corporate governance experts said. Government revenue payments to the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), which is tasked with enforcing corporate law, are estimated to fall 8 percent to A$320 million over the next four years, budget documents show. The funding cut comes at a time when the Royal Commission inquiry has uncovered years-long misconduct in the financial sector, with an ASIC executive citing "limited resources" as one reason the problems weren't discovered sooner. "These cuts are not large cuts but they're significant in the public's mind and they're significant for the morale and strength of resolve of the regulators concerned," Thomas Clarke, a business school professor at the University of Technology, Sydney. "One of the principal lessons of the Royal Commission in recent weeks has been ASIC's toothless handling of the banks over the last ten years...I think the public will interpret this budget cut as giving up on ASIC to some extent, which is exactly the wrong signal." Ian Ramsay, professor of corporate law at Melbourne University, said the cuts were "unfortunate" in the current climate. "If anything we would expect more work from ASIC in terms of investigations and possible prosecutions." ASIC referred Reuters to Australia's government for comment. A spokesman for Kelly O'Dwyer, Australia's Minister for Revenue and Financial Services, said ASIC is "well funded and resourced to undertake its important regulatory work." "Approximately 20 per cent of ASIC funding is project driven, so funding and personnel fluctuates from time to time," he said in an emailed statement. The budget provides ASIC an extra A$10.6 million over two years to assist with its involvement in the Royal Commission, along with other short-term project payments. New Zealand - The New Zealand dollar hit a five-month low on Thursday as the country's central bank wrongfooted hawks by keeping interest rates steady and saying the next move might be a cut or a hike. The kiwi dollar went as deep as $0.6934, a level not seen since early December, after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held rates at a record low 1.75 percent and trimmed its inflation forecasts a little. "The direction of our next move is equally balanced, up or down. Only time and events will tell," Governor Adrian Orr said in a statement accompanying his first monetary policy decision since he took the helm in March. Westpac economist Imre Speizer said the new line "is a slightly dovish development."

GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES

May 11, 2018


The decision was closely watched as economists and investors sought to discern how Orr would handle a new policy goal of "maximising sustainable employment" alongside traditional inflation targeting. The kiwi was last down 0.7 percent at $0.6942. "Given the style of this (statement) is quite different to previous missives, it will take much longer than usual to divine the key signals," Speizer added. "That said, our initial impression is that it reads slightly more dovishly than February's." New Zealand government bonds rose, sending yields down 2.5 basis points at the long-end and 2-3 basis points at the short-end of the curve. The Australian dollar was unchanged at $0.7460 after two straight sessions of losses. It went as low as $0.7413 on Wednesday, a level last visited in June 2017. The Aussie has been on a slippery slope since late April largely due to a surge in the greenback as U.S. economic indicators outpaced much of the advanced world and forced traders to unwind short-dollar positions. Australian government bond futures slipped, with the three-year bond contract off 1.5 ticks at 97.775. The 10-year contract slipped 2 ticks to 97.1850.

China – China won't change its opposition to protectionism in its ongoing bilateral trade negotiations with the United States, its commerce ministry spokesman said on Thursday, even as a top Beijing official is expected to visit Washington soon for talks. Commerce ministry spokesman Gao Feng said during a regular briefing the United States and China are currently preparing the next round of discussions. A U.S. trade delegation visited Beijing last week for talks but left without significant progress in resolving an escalating trade dispute between the world's two largest economies. "The United States must put away its threatening stick. China's position has not changed and will not change," Gao said. He said China opposed protectionism and unilateralism in trade relations. Beijing has previously said it will not negotiate on its core interests, though it has not clearly defined what those are. "We hope that China-U.S. trade relations can become a powerful driving force for sustained growth of the global economy." China on Wednesday confirmed that Vice Premier Liu He will visit the U.S. to discuss trade at an appropriate time. Japan - Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank could debate conditions for exiting from ultra-easy policy if prospects for achieving its inflation target improve, reminding markets his radical stimulus programme won't last forever. But he refrained from dropping hints on the timing of an exit and warned that it could take more time than expected to drive up inflation, suggesting the BOJ was in no rush to follow in the footsteps of its U.S. peer in dialing back stimulus. "When the possibility of achieving our price target heightens, conditions for an exit would fall into place," Kuroda told a seminar on Thursday. "The BOJ's policy board could then discuss conditions for an exit," he said, giving the strongest signal yet on the chances of beginning a debate over how to end the bank's crisis-mode policies. A summary of the BOJ's rate review in April showed on Friday the bank was working to prepare markets for a future withdrawal of its stimulus, with some policymakers calling for more scrutiny of the rising cost of prolonged easing. In a speech delivered at the seminar, Kuroda pointed to risks that could delay achievement of its price target, such as the chance inflation expectations may not increase smoothly. With the economy in good shape and the labour market tightening, the key to achieving 2 percent inflation was to change public perceptions that prices won't rise much, he said.

"If there is strong uncertainty about future growth, firms will hesitate to raise wages," he said. "We need to keep in mind that it might take a fair amount of time" before actual rises in prices heighten inflation expectations." The remarks, which came in the wake of the BOJ's decision last month to drop any timeframe for meeting its price goal, underscore its waning conviction its stimulus programme would boost inflation expectations - key to meeting its price goal. Kuroda rejected views the cost of easing exceeded its merits, saying he did not see the BOJ's policy nearing a limit. Once inflation expectations heighten, the stimulative effect of the current policy will increase as real interest rates, or inflation-adjusted borrowing costs, will fall, Kuroda said. "When assessing the extent to which interest rates stimulate economic activity and prices, it's essential to consider the level of real interest rates," he said.

Euro Zone – European countries are powerless to salvage the nuclear deal with Iran after the United States pulled out, the deputy head of the elite Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) said on Thursday. Britain, France and Germany said they remained committed to the deal despite Tuesday's decision by U.S. President Donald Trump to withdraw. But Brigadier General Hossein Salami said Europe "cannot act independently over the nuclear deal," the semi-official Fars news agency quoted him as saying. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Tuesday that Tehran would remain in the 2015 agreement, though Europe had only a "limited opportunity" to preserve it. On Wednesday Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, cast doubt on the ability of the European signatories to guarantee Tehran's interests, adding: "I do not trust these countries either." Khamenei has the final say on all state matters and commands the loyalty of the IRGC, which has huge political and economic influence domestically. Salami said Iran's enemies were not seeking military confrontation. "They want to pressure our country by economic isolation ... Resistance is the only way to confront these enemies, not diplomacy," Fars quoted him as saying. Trump also said on Tuesday he would revive U.S. economic sanctions against Iran, penalising foreign firms doing business with Tehran and further undermining what he called "a horrible, one-sided deal that should have never, ever been made". Europeans fear a collapse of the deal could raise the risk of deepening conflicts in the Middle East. Early on Thursday, Iranian forces launched their first attack on Israel from inside Syria, firing rockets at army bases in the Golan Heights, Israel said. That prompted one of the heaviest Israeli barrages against Syria since the conflict there began in 2011. The pact, the signature foreign policy achievement of Trump's predecessor Barack Obama, was designed to prevent Iran developing a nuclear bomb in exchange for lifting most sanctions that had crippled its economy. Sanctions were removed in 2016. Trump complained that the agreement failed to address Iran’s ballistic missile programme, its nuclear activities beyond 2025 or its role in conflicts in the Middle East, where Tehran has been involved in a proxy war from Lebanon to Yemen for decades. In defiance of Western pressure to curb the missile programme, Tehran says it is essential precautionary defence against the United States and other adversaries, primarily Gulf Arab states and Israel. "Exiting the deal and their concerns over Iran's missile work are excuses to bring our nation to its knees," Salami said. The IRGC's overseas arm, the Quds force, operates in Iraq, Syria and Yemen among other places.

May 11, 2018


UK – The Bank of England held interest rates steady on Thursday and said weak growth during a snowy start to 2018 was likely to be temporary, but it wanted to be sure the economy was picking up in coming months before raising borrowing costs. In sharp contrast to overwhelming expectations a few weeks ago that they would raise rates, BoE policymakers voted 7-2 to keep them at 0.5 percent. That was in line with forecasts from economists polled by Reuters in the past week. Governor Mark Carney said the BoE - which cut its 2018 growth prediction and trimmed its inflation forecasts - expected growth would gain speed again. It was sticking to its message that rates would probably need to rise - for only the second time in over a decade - once that recovery was clear. "What's the sensible thing to do? Do you act now or do you wait to see evidence that that momentum is re-asserting," Carney told reporters. "The judgement of the majority of the committee is you wait to see for some evidence of that reasserting." Investors slightly pushed back their bets on when rates would rise, and sterling slid close to a four-month low against the dollar while the yield on two-year British government bonds edged down. Rate futures showed less than a 50 percent chance of a hike in August, the next time the BoE updates its forecasts. "It looks like the 2018 rate hike has been delayed not cancelled," Fitch Ratings chief economist Brian Coulton said. Britain's economy grew more slowly than most of its peers last year after a Brexit-driven jump in inflation hit consumer spending power and some businesses delayed long-term investment. Growth slowed even more sharply in early 2018 on a mix of unusually icy weather and headwinds from Britain's impending European Union exit. Recent data "had been consistent with a temporary soft patch...," most of the BoE's rate-setters said. "(But) there was value in seeing how the data unfolded over the coming months." OVERHEATING RISK Despite weak growth, the BoE sees the need for rate hikes because it thinks the economy could overheat due to long-term weak productivity and lower immigration driven by Brexit. Carney said in February that rates might go up sooner than the BoE had previously suggested, and was asked by a reporter on Thursday about the description of him as an "unreliable boyfriend" - first used by a British lawmaker because of his previous signals about when rates might rise, which misfired. "The only people who throw that term at me are in this room," Carney told the news conference. Policymakers Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders, who again voted for a rate rise, agreed the weak growth so far this year reflected "temporary or erratic factors", but said delaying a rate hike risked more abrupt tightening later on. The BoE said the weakening of inflation was due to a faster fading of the impact of sterling's plunge on import prices, and domestic inflation pressures continued to rise. Inflation was seen dropping to 2.1 percent in a year's time, and returning to target a year later but only if interest rates rose by 25 basis points about three times over three years, as markets expect. The BoE said the economy would grow by 1.4 percent this year, down from the 1.8 percent it predicted in February, with slowing consumer lending and a sluggish housing market creating greater-than-usual uncertainty about consumer demand. For 2019 and 2020, it predicted growth of 1.7 percent, down from 1.8 percent in its February forecasts.

U.S. – U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected in April, suggesting that inflation was increasing at a moderate pace, which could allow the Federal Reserve to continue gradually raising interest rates. But with the labor market tightening and oil prices rising after President Donald Trump on Tuesday pulled the United States out of an international nuclear deal, promising to restore stiff sanctions on Iran, price pressures are expected to accelerate in the coming months. Inflation is flirting with the U.S. central bank's 2 percent target. Policymakers have in recent days signaled they would not be too concerned if inflation overshot the target, reiterating what the Fed said in its statement last week. The Labor Department said its Consumer Price Index rose 0.2 percent in April as increases in the cost of gasoline and rents were tempered by a drop in motor vehicle prices. The CPI had slipped 0.1 percent in March. "The sources of the weakness in last month's reading do not suggest the onset of a trend shift lower," said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan in New York. "Today's number would not deter the Fed from hiking (interest rates) again next month." In the 12 months through April, the CPI increased 2.5 percent, the biggest gain since February 2017. That followed a 2.4 percent rise in the year to March. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI edged up 0.1 percent after two successive monthly increases of 0.2 percent. The so-called core CPI rose 2.1 percent year-on-year in April, matching March's increase. Economists had forecast the CPI rebounding 0.3 percent in April and the core CPI climbing 0.2 percent. The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy, which is the Fed's preferred inflation measure, accelerated 1.9 percent year-on-year in March, as last year's big declines in the price of cell phone service plans dropped out of the calculation. Economists expect the core PCE price index, which had increased 1.6 percent in February, to breach the 2 percent target in May. In their policy statement last week, Fed officials said they expected annual inflation to run close to the "symmetric" 2 percent target over the medium term. The central bank left interest rates unchanged last week. The Fed hiked rates in March and has signaled at least two more increases for this year. Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher while U.S. Treasury yields fell. The dollar slipped against a basket of currencies. SKILLS MISMATCH In another report on Thursday, the Labor Department's first-time applications for state unemployment benefits were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted 211,000 for the week ended May 5. Claims dropped to 209,000 during the week ended April 21, which was the lowest level since December 1969. The labor market is considered to be near or at full employment, with the unemployment rate close to a 17-1/2-year low of 3.9 percent. That has led to a slowdown in job growth as employers struggle to find skilled workers. A government report on Tuesday showed job openings rising to a record 6.6 million in March. Competition for workers is expected to push up wage increases, which have remained moderate. "It is not enough to say that companies continue to be reluctant to lay off workers, they are becoming increasingly reluctant to do so," said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics in New York. "The only thing missing is a faster growth rate of labor compensation, but we believe that this is coming." Strong wage growth and higher gasoline prices could fan inflation pressures. Last month, gasoline prices rebounded 3.0 percent after tumbling 4.9 percent in March. Crude oil prices jumped to 3-1/2-year highs on Wednesday following Trump's decision to exit the Iran deal.

May 11, 2018


Food prices rose 0.3 percent last month, the largest increase in a year, after nudging up 0.1 percent in March. Owners' equivalent rent of primary residence, which is what a homeowner would pay to rent or receive from renting a home, rose 0.3 percent last month after a similar gain in March. Healthcare cost increases slowed, edging up 0.1 percent after advancing 0.4 percent in March. Prices for used cars and trucks tumbled 1.6 percent in April, the largest drop since March 2009. The cost of recreation fell 0.4 percent last month, the biggest decline since December 2009. There were also decreases in the cost of airline tickets, new motor vehicles and communications. The cost of motor vehicle insurance fell for the first time in a year. Apparel prices rose and costs of household furniture increased 0.5 percent last month, the largest in three years.

Canada – Canadian new home prices were unchanged in March, as expected, as higher prices in Ottawa were offset by a weaker Toronto market, data from Statistics Canada showed on Thursday.

Prices in Toronto fell 0.3 percent, the third monthly decrease in a row, after provincial government measures taken last year to rein in the city's hot market. Tighter mortgage rules that came into effect at the start of 2018 and three interest rate increases from the Bank of Canada have also helped cool the country's housing market. Markets expect the central bank to hike rates again this summer, which could put additional pressure on highly indebted consumers. Overall, 13 cities saw higher prices in March, while 14 were flat or lower. The new housing price index excludes apartments and condominiums. Ottawa, the nation's capital, saw the biggest increase, with prices up 1.3 percent. The higher prices may be due to higher employment and a tight resale market, the statistics agency said. Among other major cities, prices in Calgary fell 0.4 percent as builders cited lower negotiated selling prices, while Vancouver, among the country's most expensive housing markets, was unchanged for a third straight month.

(Source Reuters – rizal)

May 11, 2018


WEEKLY ECONOMIC CALENDAR

DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV.

Mon/07-May-18 05:30 AU AiG Perf of Construction Index Apr 55.4 -- 57.2

06:00 US Fed's Quarles Speaks at Atlanta Fed's Financial Conference 06:50 JP BOJ Minutes of Policy Meeting

08:30 AU NAB Business Conditions Apr 21 -- 14 15 08:30 AU NAB Business Confidence Apr 10 -- 7 8 N/A CN Foreign Reserves Apr $3125.00b $3133.00b $3142.82b

N/A HK Foreign Reserves Apr $434.4b $430.6b $440.3b 13:00 DE Factory Orders MoM Mar -0.9% 0.5% 0.3% -0.2%

13:00 DE Factory Orders WDA YoY Mar 3.1% 5.0% 3.5% 3.0% 13:30 AU Foreign Reserves Apr A$72.8b -- A$76.6b

14:00 CH Foreign Currency Reserves Apr 757b -- 737.8b 737.6b 14:15 CH CPI EU Harmonized MoM Apr 0.2% 0.3% 0.3%

14:15 CH CPI EU Harmonized YoY Apr 0.4% 0.7% 0.7% 14:15 CH CPI MoM Apr 0.2% 0.3% 0.4%

14:15 CH CPI YoY Apr 0.8% 0.9% 0.8% 14:30 DE Markit Germany Construction PMI Apr 50.9 -- 47

15:10 EZ Markit Eurozone Retail PMI Apr 48.6 -- 50.1 15:10 DE Markit Germany Retail PMI Apr 51 -- 51.5

15:30 EZ Sentix Investor Confidence May 19.2 21 19.6 19:25 US Fed's Bostic Makes Welcome at Financial Markets Conference All Day KR Bank Holiday/Make-up Holiday for Children’s Day

All Day GB Bank Holiday/May Bank Holiday

Tue/08-May-18 01:00 US Fed's Barkin Speaks in Moderated Q&A at GMU 02:00 CA Bank of Canada's Tim Lane Speaks on a Panel in Portugal

02:00 US Consumer Credit Mar $11.622b $15.200b $10.601b $13.639b

02:30 US Fed's Evans Speaks At Atlanta Fed Financial Markets Conference

02:30 US Fed's Kaplan Speaks on Panel at Financial Conference 06:00 AU RBA's Boge Gives Speech in Sydney

06:30 JP Household Spending YoY Mar -0.7% 1.1% 0.1% -0.9% 08:30 AU Retail Sales Ex Inflation QoQ 1Q 0.2% 0.6% 0.9% 0.8%

08:30 AU Retail Sales MoM Mar 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% N/A CN Exports YoY Apr 12.9% 8.0% -2.7%

N/A CN Exports YoY CNY Apr 3.7% 4.0% -9.8% N/A CN Imports YoY Apr 21.5% 16.0% 14.4%

N/A CN Imports YoY CNY Apr 11.6% 10.4% 5.9% N/A CN Trade Balance Apr $28.78b $27.75b -$4.98b

N/A CN Trade Balance CNY Apr 182.80b 189.15b -29.78b 10:00 NZ 2Yr Inflation Expectation 2Q 2.01% -- 2.11% 12:45 CH Unemployment Rate Apr 2.7% 2.9% 2.9%

12:45 CH Unemployment Rate SA Apr 2.7% -- 2.9% 2.8% 13:00 DE Exports SA MoM Mar 1.7% 1.8% -3.2% -3.1%

13:00 DE Imports SA MoM Mar -0.9% 1.0% -1.3% -1.4% 13:00 DE Industrial Production SA MoM Mar 1.0% 0.8% -1.6% -1.7%

13:00 DE Industrial Production WDA YoY Mar 3.2% 3.0% 2.6% 2.2% 13:00 DE Trade Balance Mar 25.2b 22.5b 19.2b 18.5b

17:00 US NFIB Small Business Optimism Apr 104.8 104.5 104.7 19:15 CA Housing Starts Apr 214.4k 220k 225.2k

Wed/09-May-18 06:50 JP Official Reserve Assets Apr $1256.0b -- $1268.3b

07:00 JP Labor Cash Earnings YoY Mar 2.1% 1.0% 1.3% 1.0% 07:00 JP Real Cash Earnings YoY Mar 0.8% -0.5% -0.5% -0.8%

12:00 JP Coincident Index Mar P 116.4 116.4 116.1 116 12:00 JP Leading Index CI Mar P 105 105.1 106 105.9

19:30 US PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Apr 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 19:30 US PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Apr 2.3% 2.4% 2.7%

19:30 US PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM Apr 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 19:30 US PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY Apr 2.5% -- 2.9% 19:30 US PPI Final Demand MoM Apr 0.1% 0.2% 0.3%

19:30 US PPI Final Demand YoY Apr 2.6% 2.8% 3.0% 21:30 US DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory May-04 1388k -- 416k

21:30 US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories May-04 -2197k 1000k 6218k 21:30 US DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory May-04 -3791k -1500k -3900k

May 11, 2018


(Source: Bloomberg-Reuters-Forexfactory-DailyFX-Tradingeconomics-FXStreet, Research: @LukmanLoeng,@her1en,rizal)

21:30 US DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories May-04 -2174k 0k 1171k

Thu/10-May-18 00:15 US Fed's Bostic Speaks on Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy

04:00 NZ RBNZ Official Cash Rate May-10 1.75% 1.75% 1.75%

04:15 CA Bank of Canada's Filipe Dinis Speaks on Cyber Security 06:50 JP BOJ Summary of Opinions

06:50 JP BoP Current Account Adjusted Mar ¥1772.3b ¥1627.3b ¥1024.1b ¥963.1b 06:50 JP BoP Current Account Balance Mar ¥3122.3b ¥2929.3b ¥2076.0b

06:50 JP Trade Balance BoP Basis Mar ¥1190.7b ¥1023.1b ¥188.7b 08:00 AU Consumer Inflation Expectation May -- 3.6%

08:30 CN CPI YoY Apr 1.8% 1.9% 2.1% 08:30 CN PPI YoY Apr 3.4% 3.4% 3.1%

12:00 JP Eco Watchers Survey Current SA Apr 49.0 49.1 48.9 12:00 JP Eco Watchers Survey Outlook SA Apr 50.1 49.9 49.6

15:00 EZ ECB Publishes Economic Bulletin 15:30 GB Construction Output SA MoM Mar -2.3% -2.2% -1.6% -1.0% 15:30 GB Construction Output SA YoY Mar -4.9% -5.7% -3.0% -1.8%

15:30 GB Industrial Production MoM Mar 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 15:30 GB Industrial Production YoY Mar 2.9% 3.1% 2.2% 2.1%

15:30 GB Manufacturing Production MoM Mar -0.1% -0.2% -0.2% 15:30 GB Manufacturing Production YoY Mar 2.9% 2.9% 2.5%

15:30 GB Trade Balance Mar -£3091 -£2000 -£965 -£1176 15:30 GB Trade Balance Non EU GBP/Mn Mar -£3639 -- -£2237 -£2354

15:30 GB Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn Mar -£12287 -£11300 -£10203 -£10414 18:00 GB Bank of England Bank Rate May-10 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%

18:00 GB Bank of England Inflation Report 18:00 GB BOE Asset Purchase Target May 435b 435b 435b

18:00 GB BOE Corporate Bond Target May 10b 10b 10b 18:00 GB NIESR GDP Estimate Apr 0.1% -- 0.2%

19:30 US Continuing Claims Apr-28 1790k 1800k 1756k 1760k 19:30 US Initial Jobless Claims May-05 211k 219k 211k 19:30 US CPI Core Index SA Apr 256.450 -- 256.2

19:30 US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Apr 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 19:30 US CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Apr 2.1% 2.2% 2.1%

19:30 US CPI Index NSA Apr 250.546 250.700 249.554 19:30 US CPI MoM Apr 0.2% 0.3% -0.1%

19:30 US CPI YoY Apr 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 19:30 US Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY Apr 0.2% -- 0.4% 0.3%

19:30 US Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY Apr 0.4% -- 0.9% All Day CH Bank Holiday/Ascension Day

Fri/11-May-18 05:30 NZ BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI Apr -- 52.2

08:30 AU Home Loans MoM Mar -- -0.2% 08:30 AU Investment Lending Mar -- 0.5%

08:30 AU Owner-Occupier Loan Value MoM Mar -- 1.3% 15:30 HK GDP SA QoQ 1Q -- 0.8%

15:30 HK GDP YoY 1Q -- 3.4% 19:30 US Export Price Index MoM Apr -- 0.3%

19:30 US Export Price Index YoY Apr -- 3.4% 19:30 CA Full Time Employment Change Apr -- 68.3 19:30 CA Hourly Earnings Permanent Empl YoY Apr -- 3.1%

19:30 CA Net Change in Employment Apr 19.5k 32.3k 19:30 CA Part Time Employment Change Apr -- -35.9

19:30 CA Participation Rate Apr -- 65.5 19:30 CA Unemployment Rate Apr 5.8% 5.8%

20:00 CA Bank of Canada's Wilkins Speaks at Women's Forum Canada 21:00 US U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation May P -- 2.7%

21:00 US U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation May P -- 2.5% 21:00 US U. of Mich. Current Conditions May P -- 114.9

21:00 US U. of Mich. Expectations May P -- 88.4 21:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment May P 98.4 98.8

Sat/12-May-18 00:00 US Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count May-11 -- 1032

May 11, 2018


ASIAN STOCK INDEX

Japan's Nikkei share average rose on Thursday as gains on Wall Street and a steady yen boosted investors' risk appetite, while Toyota extended its rally the day after publishing full-year results. Toyota Motor rose 2.3 percent to 7,592 yen, a fresh three-month high, and was the most traded stock by turnover. That helped lift the Nikkei, which ended up 0.4 percent at 22,497.18 points. Bellwether Toyota's earnings bode well for the Japanese market, traders said, boosting investor confidence in the outlook for earnings, despite worries about the yen's volatility in the past few months. "Toyota's results gave the market some relief. The fact that its forecast profit decline is limited while its forex assumption is 105 yen versus the dollar is a good surprise," said Takuya Takahashi, a strategist at Daiwa Securities. Toyota shares jumped 3.8 percent on Wednesday after it published its annual results and forecast better-than-expected profits this fiscal year, along with announcing a share buyback. Nomura Securities raised Toyota's target price to 9,300 yen from 8,500 yen, citing its investment in new technologies such as electric powertrains and autonomous driving, while cutting costs. In late trade, Ajinomoto surged and ended 4.3 percent higher after it said it would buy back up to 4.39 percent of its own shares worth 40 billion yen ($364.30 million). Elsewhere, the mining sector ralliedy as oil prices stay high, with Inpex Corp surging 3.5 percent. Mitsubishi Motors Corp jumped 9.4 percent after it said operating profit was expected to rise 12 percent in the current financial year, driven by higher vehicle sales in Asia. Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings soared 9.4 percent after the department store operator said its operating profit will likely rise 18.8 percent to 29 billion Japanese yen ($264.48 million) in the year ending March 2019. It also expects a net profit of 13 billion yen, compared to 900 million yen in net loss in the previous year. The broader Topix rose 0.3 percent at 1,777.62. South Korea's won edged up to end at a nearly two-week high on Thursday as the greenback weakened in the global markets. Strong gains in the won improved sentiment, helping KOSPI stock index snap a five-day losing streak. At 0635 GMT, the KOSPI was up 20.18 points or 0.83 percent at 2,464.16. The won was quoted at 1,073.1 per dollar on the onshore settlement platform, 0.73 percent firmer than its previous close at 1,080.9. In offshore trading, the won was quoted at 1,071.39 per U.S. dollar, up 0.65 percent from the previous day, while in one-year non-deliverable forwards it was being asked at 1,055.75 per dollar. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.60 percent, after U.S. stocks ended the previous session with mild gains Japanese stocks rose 0.39 percent. The KOSPI is down around 1.0 percent so far this year, and slipped 0.28 percent in the previous 30 days. The current price-to-earnings ratio is 12.10, the dividend yield is 1.28 percent and the market capitalisation is 1,242.04 trillion won. The trading volume during the session on the KOSPI index was 483,938,000 shares, and of the total traded issues of 885, the number of advancing shares was 528.

The Korean 3-month Certificate of Deposit benchmark rate was quoted at 1.65 percent, while the benchmark 3-year Korean treasury bond yielded 2.28 percent, lower than the previous day's 2.31 percent. Hong Kong stocks rose on Thursday, after data showed China's industrial demand remains resilient even as trade tensions ratchet up with the United States. The Hang Seng index rose 0.9 percent to 30,809.22, while the China Enterprises Index gained 0.4 percent to 12,233.96 points. China's producer inflation picked up for the first time in seven months in April, bolstered by surging commodities prices. The sub-index of the Hang Seng tracking energy shares rose 2.3 percent while the IT sector rose 2.59 percent, the financial sector was 0.83 percent higher and the property sector rose 0.23 percent. The top gainer on Hang Seng was China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd up 3.49 percent, while the biggest loser was China Resources Land Ltd which was down 1.53 percent. China's main Shanghai Composite index closed up 0.51 percent at 3,159.1502 points while its blue-chip CSI300 index ended up 0.57 percent. Around the region, MSCI's Asia ex-Japan stock index was firmer by 0.64 percent while Japan's Nikkei index closed up 0.39 percent. The yuan was quoted at 6.3613 per U.S. dollar at 08:29 GMT, 0.12 percent firmer than the previous close of 6.3688. China stocks rose slightly on Thursday, after data showing the country's industrial demand remained resilient even as trade tensions ratchet up with the United States. Hong Kong shares also rose. The CSI300 index rose 0.1 percent, to 3,876.49 at the end of the morning session, while the Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.2 percent to 3,165.11. The Hang Seng index added 0.9 percent to 30,805.88, while the Hong Kong China Enterprises Index gained 0.4 percent to 12,239.46. China's producer inflation picked up for the first time in seven months in April, bolstered by surging commodities. But consumer inflation eased from the previous month as food prices rose at a slower pace. China's smaller Shenzhen index was up 0.1 percent and the start-up board ChiNext Composite index was weaker by 0.16 percent. Around the region, MSCI's Asia ex-Japan stock index was firmer by 0.52 percent while Japan's Nikkei index was up 0.31 percent. The yuan was quoted at 6.3654 per U.S. dollar, 0.05 percent firmer than the previous close of 6.3688. The largest percentage gainers in the main Shanghai Composite index were Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co Ltd up 10.04 percent, followed by Qingdao Copton Technology Co Ltd gaining 10.02 percent and Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co Ltd up by 10.01 percent. The top percentage losers in the Shanghai index were Aurora Optoelectronics Co Ltd down 9.99 percent, followed by Flying Technology Co Ltd osing 6.99 percent and Zhejiang XinAn Chemical Industrial Group Co Ltd down by 6.29 percent. The top gainers among H-shares were China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd up 4.25 percent, followed by CNOOC Ltd gaining 3.55 percent and China Petroleum & Chemical Corp up by 2.92 percent. (SourceReuters,Research:rizal

Research Department

May 11, 2018

DISCLAIMER: The information contained above is intended to provide general information and does not constitute or purports to be a financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or

any other advice. Any strategies, views or opinions expressed above are not intended to be presented as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Client should seek personal professional advice before making any decisions. The client should ensure that financial instruments are suitable for his/her own

individual objectives, financial situation and investment needs. This report is prepared for the use of Alpha Gold Futures clients. The reproduction and redistribution of this material is strictly prohibited

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2018

HIGH / LOW .N225 .KS200 .HSI .DJI /.SPX /.SSEC

RECORD HIGH 38915.87

(29/Dec/89) 339.59

(02/Nov/2017) 33154.12

(26/Jan/2018) 26616.71

(26/Jan/2018) 2872.62

(26/Jan/2018) 6124.04400 (16/Oct./07)

2017 HIGH 23439.15

(13/Nov/2017) 339.59

(02/Nov/2017) 30199.69

(22/Nov/2017) 24876.07

(18/Dec/2017) 2694.97

(18/Dec/2017) 3450.49490

(14/Nov/2017)

2018 HIGH 24129.34

(23/Jan/2018) 338.05

(29/Jan/2018) 33154.12

(26/Jan/2018) 26616.71

(26/Jan/2018) 2872.62

(26/Jan/2018) 3587.50890

(29/Jan/2018)

2018 LOW 20617.86

(23/Mar/2018) 304.58

(05/Mar/2018) 29129.26

(09/Feb/2018) 23360.29

(08/Feb/2018) 2532.69

(08/Feb/2018) 3062.74260

(08/Feb/2018)

2017 LOW 18224.68

(17/Apr/2017) 258.64

(02/Jan/2017) 21883.82

(03/Jan/2017) 19677.94

(19/Jan/2017) 2245.13

(03/Jan/2017) 3016.53050

(11/May/2017)

RECORD LOW 85.25

(06/Jul/50) 31.96

(16/Jun/98) 58.61

(31/Aug/67) 388.20

(17/Jan/55) 132.93

(23/Nov./82) 325.92200 (29/Jul/94)

Closing Prices – 10 May 2018

CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE

.DJI 24739.53 196.99/0.80% .N225 22497.18 88.30/0.39%

/.SPX 2723.07 25.28/0.94% .KS200 317.31 2.89/0.92%

/.IXIC 7404.975 65.070/0.89% .HSI 30809.22 273.08/0.89%

JPY= 109.38 0.36/0.33% /.SSEC 3175.16680 16.01660/0.51%

KRW= 1064.69 13.69/1.27% /CLc1 (Oil) 71.40 0.16/0.22%

May 11, 2018


SSIamM8 (Nikkei Jun Futures) – Last Trading Date: 07 Jun 2018

• RSI 14 is near the overbought zone • Daily daily corrections (Research – rizal)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME

10 May SSIpmM8 22490 22550 22475 75 22515 --- 35 0.16 16034 10 May SSIamM8 22505 22530 22420 110 22480 22480 75 0.33 37807





WEEKLY MAY APRIL 2018

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

22565 22345 22595 22085 22640 20920 24170 20130

(08/May) (07/May) (01/May) (03/May) (30/Apr) (02/Apr) (23/Jan) (23/Mar)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

23065 High on 1 Hourly Chart


22735 High Feb 06,2018

22640 High May 01,2018

SUPPORT

22385 Low on 1 Hourly Chart


22095 Low Apr 19,2018


RECOMMENDATION

BUY 22485

SELL ----

STOP LOSS 22335

TARGET 22685

22785

May 11, 2018


KSM8 (Kospi Jun Futures) – Exp. Date: 07 Jun 2018

• Daily daily corrections • RSI 14 is near the oversold zone (Research – rizal)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE %

CHANGE VOLUME

10 May 316.35 317.30 315.45 1.85 317.00 317.00 1.80 0.57 190338

09 May 315.70 316.25 312.80 3.45 315.20 315.20 Flat Flat 231314

08 May 318.50 319.30 315.20 4.10 315.20 315.20 2.40 0.76 174969

07 May H O L I D A Y

04 May 319.80 320.15 317.05 3.10 317.60 317.60 1.55 0.49 184217

03 May 320.10 320.80 318.60 2.20 319.15 319.15 1.75 0.55 146526



319.30 312.80 322.80 312.80 323.45 308.70 340.30 302.10 (08/May) (09/May) (02/May) (09/May) (30/Apr) (04/Apr) (29/Jan) (09/Feb)


RESISTANCE

323.45 High Apr 30,2018

322.80 High May 02,2018

320.15 High May 04,2018

319.30 High May 08,2018

SUPPORT

315.45 Low May 10,2018

314.75 Low Apr 16,2018

313.85 Low Apr 13,2018

312.85 Low Apr 12,2018

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 316.70

SELL ----

STOP LOSS 315.20

TARGET 318.70

319.70

Daily KSc1 11/01/2018 - 16/05/2018 (JAK)

231.45

284.60

289.30

238.55

276.25

261.25

266.35

216.90

237.80

223.10

229

224

234

254.45

241.35

235.65

248.75

312.80

339.95

302.70

340.30

325.50

302.10

308.70

317.30

Cndl; KSc1; Trade Price

10/05/2018; 316,35; 317,30; 315,45; 317,00

EMA; KSc1; Trade Price(Last); 20

10/05/2018; 317,32

WMA; KSc1; Trade Price(Last); 55

10/05/2018; 316,83

Price

KRW

Auto

300

303

306

309

312

315

318

321

324

327

330

333

336

339

RSI; KSc1; Trade Price(Last); 14; Exponential

10/05/2018; 47,994 Value

KRW

Auto

Mom; KSc1; Trade Price(Last); 14

10/05/2018; -1,75

Value

KRW

Auto

-20

15 22 29 05 12 19 26 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 08 14

Januari 2018 Februari 2018 Maret 2018 April 2018 Mei 2018

May 11, 2018


HSIK8 (Hang Seng May Futures) – Exp. Date: 30 May 2018

• Correction in daily • RSI approach oversold area, be alert

of trend change • Potentially open Gap up. (Research – rizal)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE %

CHANGE VOLUME

10 May 30630 30700 30554 146 30680 30680 262 0.86 201509

09 May 30194 30420 30255 165 30418 30418 216 0.72 226974

08 May 30183 30265 30081 184 30202 30202 445 1.50 209296

07 May 29850 29970 29655 315 29757 29757 18 0.06 252229

04 May 29849 30052 29644 408 29775 29775 281 0.93 268161

03 May 30047 30242 29901 341 30056 30056 499 1.63 239022

02 May 30472 30579 30392 187 30555 30555 110 0.36 202714



30700 29655 30700 29644 31151 29343 33516 29070

(10/May) (07/May) (10/May) (04/May) (12/Apr) (04/Apr) (29/Jan) (09/Feb)


RESISTANCE



31151 High Apr 12,2018

31000 High Apr 16,2018

SUPPORT





RECOMMENDATION

BUY 30850

SELL ----

STOP LOSS 30700

TARGET 31050

31150

Daily HSIc1 22/11/2017 - 21/05/2018 (JAK)

17856

23614

24485

24946

23985

23538

28621

27371

21488

25620

21051

19394

21664

19400

18037

21195

18850

20278

22321

30700

29147

26805

25110

29000

32743

28149

33516

Cndl; HSIc1; Trade Price

11/05/2018; 30.680; 30.982; 30.626; 30.952

EMA; HSIc1; Trade Price(Last); 20

11/05/2018; 30.392

WMA; HSIc1; Trade Price(Last); 55

11/05/2018; 30.486

Price

HKD

Auto

28.000

28.400

28.800

29.200

29.600

30.000

30.400

30.800

31.200

31.600

32.000

32.400

32.800

33.200

RSI; HSIc1; Trade Price(Last); 14; Exponential

11/05/2018; 65,490 Value

HKD

Auto

30

Mom; HSIc1; Trade Price(Last); 14

11/05/2018; 594

Value

HKD

Auto

27 04 11 18 27 02 08 15 22 29 05 12 20 26 05 12 19 26 03 09 16 23 30 07 14 21

Nop 17 Desember 2017 Januari 2018 Februari 2018 Maret 2018 April 2018 Mei 2018

May 11, 2018


CURRENCIES – Daily Outlook

CPI miss keeps dollar below 2018 peak, sterling falls - Reuters News The U.S. dollar fell on Thursday against a basket of currencies, holding below its 2018 peak, as a smaller-than-expected rise in consumer prices caused traders to pare positions betting that inflation is accelerating, which could push the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates faster. The British pound hit a four-month low versus the greenback after the Bank of England left key borrowing costs unchanged but reduced its growth and inflation outlook for 2018 and 2019. The recent softening in price growth among major economies has lowered expectations that most central banks other than the Fed will reduce their bond purchases or raise interest

rates. "Most central banks with the exception of the Fed had been more hawkish than they needed to be. They now seem to be walking back," said Michael Diaz, head of FX at XE in Buena Park, California. The U.S. Consumer Price Index, the government's broadest inflation gauge, increased 0.2 percent in April, less than the 0.3 percent rise projected by economists polled by Reuters. "With the disappointment of the latest CPI, it does knock the wind out of the dollar for a bit," said Mazen Issa, senior FX strategist at TD Securities in London. Lower U.S. Treasury yields added pressure on the greenback which had rallied for over two weeks on traders exiting their bearish bets on signs of overseas growth, in particular in Europe, cooling more quickly than the United States. The dollar index fell 0.4 percent against a basket of six major currencies at 92.680 after hitting a 4-1/2-month high of 93.42 on Wednesday. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was down over 2 basis points at 2.971 percent following the mildly disappointing U.S. CPI data and solid demand at $17 billion auction of 30-year government bonds. The euro benefited the most on the dollar's pullback, posting a 0.6 percent gain at $1.1920, while the dollar slipped 0.3 percent to 109.37 yen. The British pound was down 0.2 percent at $1.3516 after falling to $1.3460, the lowest level since Jan. 11 after the latest BOE statement. Among Asian currencies, the Malaysian ringgit lost 4 percent in offshore trading, following the stunning victory of the opposition Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition. Malaysian financial markets were shut on Thursday and Friday. PH's pledge to repeal an unpopular goods and services tax, restore a petrol subsidy and increase minimum wages raised concerns how the incoming government would pay for these programs and its potential drag on the ringgit. (Source Reuters, Research – rizal)

May 11, 2018


EUR/USD

Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/1.25%-1.50% (US)

With the support area at 1.1658

Important resistance around 1.2139

RSI 14 enters the oversold area (Research – rizal)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

May 10 1.18505 1.19454 1.18418 103,6 1.19131 64,8 1.18483

May 09 1.18607 1.18957 1.18215 74,2 1.18483 13,5 1.18618

May 08 1.19211 1.19375 1.18368 100,7 1.18618 59,4 1.19212

May 07 1.19590 1.19767 1.18963 80,4 1.19212 34,4 1.19556

May 04 1.19857 1.19942 1.19094 84,8 1.19556 30,5 1.19861



1.19767 1.18215 1.20829 1.18215 1.24125 1.20542 1.25542 1.18215

(07/May) (09/May) (01/May) (09/May) (17/Apr) (27/Apr) (16/Feb) (09/May)


RESISTANCE

1.2245 High Apr 24

1.2209 High Apr 26

1.2139 High Apr 30

1.2032 High May 02

SUPPORT

1.1815 Low Dec 22, 2017

1.1736 Low Dec 18, 2017

1.1658 Low Nov 14, 2017

1.1552 Low Nov 07, 2017

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 1.1900

SELL -----

STOP LOSS 1.1815

TARGET 1.1990

1.2020

Daily EUR= 05/12/2017 - 17/05/2018 (JAK)

1.4511

1.4281

1.3139

1.2584

1.3333

1.2149

1.4197

1.2826

1.1875

1.3691

1.3817

1.2871

1.3265

1.3093

1.4296

1.4084

1.2642

1.4548

1.3243

1.2520

1.3283

1.4881

1.3548

1.4247

1.3486

1.3169

1.3385

1.2569

1.3330

1.3711

1.2660

1.3432

1.2878

1.0456

1.3295

1.14951.1466

1.3515

1.2885

1.2599

1.0538

1.2600

1.0460

1.1500

1.1158

1.1711

1.0709

1.1375

1.0777

1.1365

1.1121

1.0959

1.2092

1.1552

1.2245

1.1712

1.1815

1.1736

1.2413

1.2555

1.2476

1.1821

1.1946Cndl; EUR=; Bid

10/05/2018; 1,1850; 1,1946; 1,1841; 1,1919

EMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 20

10/05/2018; 1,2067

WMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 55

10/05/2018; 1,2189

Price

USD

Auto

1,165

1,17

1,175

1,18

1,185

1,19

1,195

1,2

1,205

1,21

1,215

1,22

1,225

1,23

1,235

1,24

1,245

1,25

1,255

RSI; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential

10/05/2018; 33,425

Value

USD

Auto

30

60

Mom; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14

10/05/2018; -0,0367

Value

USD

Auto

0

11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14

Desember 2017 Januari 2018 Februari 2018 Maret 2018 April 2018 Mei 2018

May 11, 2018


USD/JPY Interest Rate: 1.50%-1.75% (US)/-0.1% (JP)

• The main resistance at 110.47, support 105.68 • RSI 14 daily rises (Research – rizal)


May 10 109.720 110.007 109.304 70,3 109.373 32,4 109.697

May 09 109.049 109.820 108.983 83,7 109.697 58,6 109.111

May 08 109.072 109.339 108.818 52,1 109.111 4,5 109.066

May 07 109.076 109.385 108.746 63,9 109.066 1,7 109.083

May 04 109.161 109.260 108.635 62,5 109.083 9,3 109.176



110.007 108.746 110.024 108.635 109.525 105.646 113.376 104.623



RESISTANCE

112.77 High Jan 12,2018

111.87 High Jan 11,2018

111.17 High Jan 23,2018

110.47 High Feb 02, 2018

SUPPORT

108.78 Low Apr 25, 2018

107.62 Low Apr 23, 2018

106.68 Low Apr 12, 2018

105.68 Low Apr 03, 2018

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ----

SELL 109.55

STOP LOSS 110.35

TARGET 108.65

108.35

May 11, 2018


GBP/USD Interest Rate: 0.50% (GB)/1.50%-1.75% (US)

• Corrections occur daily • RSI 14 is in oversold area

• Be aware of trend changes (Research –rizal)


May 10 1.35454 1.36165 1.34588 157,7 1.35113 31,2 1.35425

May 09 1.35450 1.36058 1.34979 107,9 1.35425 1,1 1.35414

May 08 1.35571 1.35921 1.34836 108,5 1.35414 14,5 1.35559

May 07 1.35356 1.35743 1.35142 60,1 1.35559 22,0 1.35339

May 04 1.35724 1.35848 1.34851 99,7 1.35339 37,3 1.35712



1.36165 1.34588 1.37717 1.34588 1.43754 1.37113 1.43754 1.34571

(10/May) (10/May) (01/May) (10/May) (17/Apr) (30/Apr) (17/Apr) (11/Jan)


RESISTANCE

1.3996 High Apr 25,2018

1.3891 High on 1 Hourly Chart

1.3773 High May 01,2018

1.3666 High May 02,2018

SUPPORT

1.3455 Low Jan 11,2018

1.3345 Low Dec 26, 2017

1.3219 Low Nov 28, 2017

1.3133 Low Nov 16, 2017

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 1.3495

SELL ----

STOP LOSS 1.3405

TARGET 1.3605

1.3645

May 11, 2018


USD/CHF Interest Rate: 1.50%-1.75% (US)/-1.25 to -0.25% (CH)

• Daily RSI approach overbought area • Main resistance 1.0170, support 0.9784 (Research – rizal)


May 10 1.00468 1.00552 0.99930 62,2 1.00224 26,1 1.00485

May 09 1.00134 1.00549 1.00027 52,2 1.00485 33,7 1.00148

May 08 1.00273 1.00440 1.00017 42,3 1.00148 2,0 1.00168

May 07 1.00001 1.00553 0.99827 72,6 1.00168 11,2 1.00056

May 04 0.99750 1.00216 0.99648 56,8 1.00056 33,0 0.99726



1.00553 0.99827 1.00553 0.99034 0.99199 0.95258 1.00553 0.91863

(07/May) (07/May) (07/May) (01/May) (30/Apr) (02/Apr) (07/May) (16/Feb)


RESISTANCE

1.0335 High Jan 03, 2017

1.0248 High Jan 11, 2017

1.0170 High Mar 07,2017

1.0107 High Apr 10,2017

SUPPORT

0.9953 Reactions Low May 03,2018

0.9869 Low Apr 30,2018

0.9815 Low Apr 26,2018

0.9766 Low Apr 24,2018

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ----

SELL 1.0045

STOP LOSS 1.0125

TARGET 0.9955

0.9925

May 11, 2018


AUD/USD Interest Rate: 1.5% (AU)/1.25%-1.50% (US)

RSI RSI 14 is down

The main resistance at 0.7731, support 0.7266 (Research – rizal)


May 10 0.74599 0.75386 0.74536 85,0 0.75310 81,4 0.74496

May 09 0.74510 0.74715 0.74112 60,3 0.74496 6 0.74502

May 08 0.75119 0.75268 0.74327 94,1 0.74502 61,9 0.75121

May 07 0.75325 0.75418 0.74920 49,8 0.75121 20,4 0.75325

May 04 0.75301 0.75593 0.74910 68,3 0.75325 2,9 0.75296



0.75418 0.74112 0.75593 0.74112 0.78117 0.75241 0.81346 0.74112

(07/May) (09/May) (04/May) (09/May) (19/Apr) (30/Apr) (26/Jan) (09/May)


RESISTANCE

0.7731 High Apr 20

0.7682 High Apr 23

0.7620 High Apr 24

0.7560 High May 04

SUPPORT

0.7490 Low May 07

0.7410 Low June 05, 2017

0.7326 Low May 09, 2017

0.7266 Low Jan 05, 2017

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 0.7520

SELL -----

STOP LOSS 0.7440

TARGET 0.7610

0.7640

May 11, 2018


NZD/USD Interest Rate: 1.75% (NZ)/1.25%-1.50% (US)

The Correction in daily movement

RSI 14 down (Research – rizal)


May 10 0.69401 0.69696 0.69014 68,2 0.69607 6,8 0.69539

May 09 0.69692 0.69957 0.69478 47,9 0.69539 11,5 0.69654

May 08 0.70141 0.70293 0.69522 77,1 0.69654 39,4 0.70048

May 07 0.70175 0.70402 0.69937 46,5 0.70048 11,4 0.70162

May 04 0.70403 0.70516 0.69931 58,5 0.70162 23,4 0.70396



0.70402 0.69014 0.70516 0.69014 0.73943 0.70321 0.74359 0.69014

(07/May) (10/May) (04/May) (10/May) (13/Apr) (30/Apr) (16/Feb) (10/May)


RESISTANCE

0.7342 High Apr 19

0.7221 High Apr 23

0.7121 High Apr 25

0.7040 High May 01

SUPPORT

0.6899 Low Dec 12, 2017

0.6815 Low Dec 01, 2017

0.6779 Low Nov 17, 2017

0.6685 Low May 31,2016

RECOMMENDATION

BUY -----

SELL 0.6980

STOP LOSS 0.7060

TARGET 0.6890

0.6860

Daily NZD= 30/11/2017 - 18/05/2018 (JAK)

0.8514

0.7974

0.7890

0.8033

0.7744

0.7230

0.6757

0.7562

0.7394

0.6233

0.7010

0.6910

0.6230

0.6886

0.6346

0.6751

0.6447

0.7379

0.7199

0.6949

0.6779

0.7221

0.6900

0.6820

0.7436

0.6963

0.7395

Cndl; NZD=; Bid

10/05/2018; 0,6984; 0,6985; 0,6900; 0,6962

EMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 20

10/05/2018; 0,7085

WMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 55

10/05/2018; 0,7172

Price

USD

Auto

0,68

0,685

0,69

0,695

0,7

0,705

0,71

0,715

0,72

0,725

0,73

0,735

0,74

RSI; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential

10/05/2018; 25,191 Value

USD

Auto

Mom; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14

10/05/2018; -0,0245 Value

USD

Auto04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14


May 11, 2018


EUR/JPY Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/-0.1% (JP)

• RSI 14 is up • Important resistance at 134.16, support at 129.59 (Research – rizal)


May 10 130.034 130.746 129.992 75,4 130.313 31,9 129.994

May 09 129.353 130.470 129.336 113,4 129.994 54,7 129.447

May 08 130.040 130.104 129.215 88,9 129.447 68,9 130.136

May 07 130.453 130.574 129.936 63,8 130.136 28,9 130.425

May 04 130.854 130.895 129.878 101,7 130.425 45,9 130.884



130.746 129.215 132.117 129.215 133.466 129.962 137.486 128.931

(10/May) (08/May) (01/May) (08/May) (24/Apr) (02/Apr) (02/Feb) (23/Mar)


RESISTANCE

133.24 High Apr 26,2018

132.54 High Apr 30,2018

131.65 High May 03,2018

130.93 High May 04,2018

SUPPORT

129.22 Low May 08,2018

128.51 Low Aug 24,2017

127.82 Low Aug 21,2017

126.47 Low Jun 28,2017

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 130.25

SELL ----

STOP LOSS 129.40

TARGET 131.15

131.55

Daily EURJPY= 27/11/2017 - 21/05/2018 (JAK)

126.04

13.1.18

149.72

141.05

139.02

128.16

134.59

132.50

130.00

124.64

126.25

114.80

109.46

110.78

118.45

112.31

129.97

134.79

128.94

137.50

129.22

130.75

Cndl; EURJPY=; Bid

10/05/2018; 130,04; 130,75; 129,97; 130,41

EMA; EURJPY=; Bid(Open); 20

10/05/2018; 131,29

WMA; EURJPY=; Bid(Last); 55

10/05/2018; 131,41

Price

JPY

Auto

127

127,5

128

128,5

129

129,5

130

130,5

131

131,5

132

132,5

133

133,5

134

134,5

135

135,5

136

136,5

137

137,5

RSI; EURJPY=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential

10/05/2018; 38,952

Value

JPY

Auto

Mom; EURJPY=; Bid(Last); 14

10/05/2018; -1,84

Value

JPY

Auto

27 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21


May 11, 2018


USD/CAD Interest Rate: 1.50%-1.75% (US)/1.25% (CA)

• RSI 14 • RSI 14 daily rises • Beware of daily corrections • Main Resistance 1.3127, Support 1.2445 (Research – rizal)

WEEKLY OPEN CURRENT PRICE

1.2843 1.2763



1.2997 1.2739 1.2997 1.2739 1.2943 1.2522 1.3124 1.2246

(08/May) (10/May) (08/May) (10/May) (02/Apr) (17/Apr) (19/Mar) (31/Jan)


RESISTANCE

1.3127 High Mar 19,2018

1.3079 High Mar 21,2018

1.2974 High May 09,2018

1.2859 High May 10,2018

SUPPORT

1.2745 Low Apr 23,2018

1.2628 Low Apr 20,2018

1.2543 Low Apr 18,2018

1.2445 Low Feb 16,2018

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ----

SELL 1.2780

STOP LOSS 1.2865

TARGET 1.2690 – 1.2650

May 11, 2018


Precious Metal – Daily Outlook

Gold firms as dollar rally cools, U.S.-Iran tensions heat up - Reuters News

Gold rose on Thursday as the U.S. dollar backed away from 2018 highs after weaker-than-forecast U.S. inflation data and as tensions between the United States and Iran also supported the precious metal. The dollar slipped from a 4-1/2-month peak after U.S. data showed the Consumer Price Index rose 0.2 percent in April, less than the 0.3 percent increase that had been forecast. A weaker dollar makes dollar-priced gold cheaper for non-U.S. investors. Also helping gold, viewed as a safe-haven investment, was U.S. President Donald Trump's move

on Tuesday to withdraw from a nuclear accord with Iran, raising the risk of conflict in the Middle East. Israel said on Thursday it had attacked nearly all of Iran's military infrastructure in Syria after Tehran fired rockets at Israeli-held territory. "We've seen a (dollar rally) in the last few weeks, but actually gold hasn't gone down as far as you might think, so political tensions are helping," said Macquarie commodities strategist Matthew Turner. Turner said the dollar was the main driver for gold and he expects the precious metal to come under pressure in the near term, with the dollar extending its rally. Spot gold rose 0.6 percent at $1,320.53 per ounce by 1:34 p.m. EDT (1734 GMT). During the session it touched $1,322.76, a 10-day high. U.S. gold futures for June delivery settled up $9.30, or 0.7 percent, at $1,322.30 per ounce. Risk appetite among investors limited gold's gains. Global equities hit a three-week high as rising oil prices boosted energy companies, offsetting increased political uncertainty. "It appears as though the investment side of the equation has not attracted a lot of attention," said Rob Lutts, chief investment officer of Cabot Wealth Management "We are at the lower end of the range. It appears we could drift back up to $1,350, but longer term. We really need to see more investment." North American gold-backed exchange-traded funds registered inflows in April at their highest level since September 2017, with safe-haven purchases ushered in by a trade stand-off between the United States and China, Syria tensions and worries about possible U.S. sanctions on Russia. In other precious metals, silver gained 1.4 percent at $16.72 an ounce after earlier hitting a two-week high at $16.74.

Platinum rose 1.7 percent at $925.40 per ounce, earlier hitting $926.20, a two-week high. Palladium rose 2.6 percent at $1,000.70 per ounce, earlier seeing $1,002.10, a 2-1/2-week high. (Source Reuters, Research – rizal)

May 11, 2018


GOLD (XAU/USD)

• Important resistance around 1365 • Important support area around 1264 (Research – rizal)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS AM FIX PM FIX

May 10 1312.390 1322.730 1310.660 12.07 1321.200 8.59 1312.610 -- --

May 09 1314.420 1317.290 1304.200 13.09 1312.610 1.66 1314.270 -- --

May 08 1313.980 1317.710 1305.960 11.75 1314.270 0.20 1314.070 -- --

May 07 1314.690 1318.820 1310.130 8.69 1314.070 0.08 1313.990 - -

May 04 1312.060 1315.260 1307.870 7.39 1313.990 1.92 1312.070 - -



1322.730 1304.200 1322.730 1301.279 1364.980 1310.240 1365.910 1301.279

(10/May) (09/May) (10/May) (01/May) (11/Apr) (30/Apr) (25/Jan) (01/May)


RESISTANCE

1374.91 High Jul 06,2016

1365.23 High Apr 11

1355.74 High Apr 18

1335.38 High Apr 23

SUPPORT

1310.51 Low May 10

1304.17 Low May 09

1293.49 Low Dec 29,2017

1286.58 Low Dec 28,2017

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 1316.00

SELL -----

STOP LOSS 1306.00

TARGET 1328.00

1336.00

May 11, 2018


SILVER (XAG/USD)

With With strong resistance at 17.11

While the crucial support area is around 15.83 (Research – rizal)


May 10 16.471 16.738 16.458 0.28 16.697 0.22 16.474

May 09 16.463 16.602 16.335 0.27 16.474 0.01 16.460

May 08 16.470 16.506 16.298 0.21 16.460 FLAT 16.462

May 07 16.506 16.553 16.387 0.17 16.462 0.02 16.486

May 04 16.425 16.490 16.350 0.14 16.486 0.07 16.415



16.738 16.298 16.738 16.149 17.336 16.169 17.682 16.105



RESISTANCE

17.69 High Jan 25

17.48 High Jan 29

17.35 High Apr 19

17.11 High Apr 23

SUPPORT

16.44 Low May 10,2018

16.34 Low May 03,2018

16.13 Low May 02,2018

15.97 Low Dec 19, 2017

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 16.60

SELL -----

STOP LOSS 16.40

TARGET 16.85

16.95

May 11, 2018


OIL – Daily Outlook

Oil slips on profit-taking from Iran-based rally - Reuters News

Crude prices slipped on Thursday, giving up early gains as investors took profit on a rally triggered by potential disruption to oil flows from major exporter Iran in the face of U.S. sanctions. Losses, however, were limited as the market contended with concerns about Venezuela's crude production slipping further and with bullish drawdowns in U.S. crude inventories. Brent crude futures fell 8 cents to $77.13 a barrel by 12:01 p.m. EDT [1801 GMT], having risen earlier in the day to $78, their highest since November 2014. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 1 cent at $71.13. The United States said on Tuesday that it plans to impose new sanctions against Iran after abandoning an agreement reached in late 2015 that curbed Tehran's nuclear activities in exchange for removal of U.S. and European sanctions. "As we digest the news of the withdrawal from the Nuclear Accord, I think it's beginning to set in that there's a six-month lag before things begin to effect supply," said Gene McGillian, Vice President of research at Tradition Energy. "Overall the market still looks poised for higher levels." U.S. crude inventories continue to lend support to the market, McGillian said. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a larger-than-expected draw on Wednesday. Brent crude could return to $100 a barrel next year, or even sooner, Bank of America said, due to the ongoing collapse of Venezuelan output and risks to Iranian crude exports. The bank also lifted its average Brent forecast to $70 for this year and $75 in 2019. Oil prices were still on track for their fourth consecutive quarterly gain, the longest such stretch for more than 10 years, boosted largely in the past month by fears of disruption in supplies from Iran, which pumps about 4 percent of the world's oil and exports about 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) to Europe and around 1.8 million bpd to Asia. Sales to Europe are seen by analysts as the more likely to be reduced by the sanctions. Analysts had little hope that opposition to the U.S. action would prevent sanctions from going ahead. European allies have said they remain committed to maintaining the nuclear deal, with German Chancellor Merkel reiterating her support of the accord Thursday. "Europe and China will not fight against the U.S. sanctions. They will grumble and accept it. There is no one who will realistically choose Iran over the U.S.," said energy consultancy FGE. "We believe the previous 1 million-bpd limit for exports (imposed during previous sanctions) will be reimposed. As before, it may take several rounds of reductions to reach target levels," FGE's founder and chairman Fereidun Fesharaki wrote in a note. Even without disruption to Iran's crude flows, the balance between supply and demand in the oil market has been tightening steadily, especially in Asia, with top exporter Saudi Arabia and No.1 producer Russia having led efforts since 2017 to cap output to prop up prices. Saudi Arabia is ready to offset any supply shortage but it will not act alone to fill the gap, an OPEC source familiar with the kingdom's oil thinking said on Wednesday. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, however, is in no hurry to decide whether to pump more oil to make up for an expected drop in exports from Iran, four sources familiar with the issue said, saying any loss in supply would take time. "What the full impact on Iranian flows will be is still difficult to estimate," said Petromatrix strategist Olivier Jakob. "One thing that has changed and which I think is clearly a new development is that it seems to me that the White House administration has really pushed Saudi Arabia to do something about price and to put supply back into the market to make sure prices do not run up ... before (when sanctions were last in place) Saudi Arabia was driving its own oil policy." One factor that could partially mitigate any shortfall from Iran is soaring U.S. oil output. The EIA on Tuesday raised its forecast for U.S. output in its monthly report to 12 million bpd late next year. The agency has raised its forecasts every month since last August. This would make the United States the world's largest producer, ahead of both Russia and Saudi Arabia.

(Source Reuters, Research – rizal)

May 11, 2018


CLM8/USD (OIL) (Exp.: 22 May 2018 - Reuters)

Important resistance at 70.35, support at 65.15

RSI 14 is down (Research – rizal)


May 10 71.21 71.86 70.55 1.31 71.38 0.14 71.24

May 09 70.04 71.34 69.84 1.50 71.24 1.21 70.03

May 08 70.01 70.32 67.63 2.69 70.03 0.06 69.97

May 07 69.83 70.81 69.50 1.31 69.97 0.20 69.77

May 04 68.47 69.95 68.12 1.83 69.77 1.29 68.48



71.86 67.63 71.86 66.92 69.53 61.80 71.86 58.06

(10/May) (08/May) (10/May) (02/May) (19/Apr) (06/Apr) (10/May) (09/Feb)


RESISTANCE

77.83 High Nov 21, 2014

76.58 High Nov 25, 2014

74.48 High Nov 26, 2014

73.56 High Nov 28, 2014

SUPPORT

70.56 Low May 10

69.85 Low May 09

67.63 Low May 08

66.56 Low Apr 18

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 71.20

SELL -----

STOP LOSS 70.00

TARGET 72.70

73.20

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