daily forecast of air quality over europe and selected ... · rhenish institute for environmental...

www.riu.uni-koeln.de

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Daily Forecast of Air Quality over Europe and Daily Forecast of Air Quality over Europe and selected nested regionsselected nested regions

Hermann JakobsHermann Jakobs

Rhenish Institute for Environmental Research (RIU)Rhenish Institute for Environmental Research (RIU)Aachenerstr. 201 Aachenerstr. 201 –– 209, 50931 K209, 50931 Kööln, Germanyln, GermanyTel +49 221 400 2220, Fax +49 221 400 2320Tel +49 221 400 2220, Fax +49 221 400 [email protected]@eurad.uni--koeln.dekoeln.dewww.eurad.uniwww.eurad.uni--koeln.dekoeln.de


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OverviewOverview•• IntroductionIntroduction

•• The EURAD ModelThe EURAD Model

•• Emission InventoriesEmission Inventories

•• Operational Chemical Weather ForecastOperational Chemical Weather Forecast

•• ValidationValidation

•• Data AssimilationData Assimilation


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Introduction (historical remarks)

•• 1987: European Air Pollution Dispersion Model (EURAD, 1987: European Air Pollution Dispersion Model (EURAD, University of Cologne)University of Cologne)

•• 2000: First test to establish air pollution forecast system 2000: First test to establish air pollution forecast system

•• 2001: 1. November 2001: 1. November -- Begin of operational Air Quality Begin of operational Air Quality forecast at RIUforecast at RIU

•• 2004: Extension of the forecast system with new domains 2004: Extension of the forecast system with new domains (Northern Hemisphere)(Northern Hemisphere)

•• 2007: Daily Forecast including data assimilation2007: Daily Forecast including data assimilation((EURopean Air pollution Dispersion Inverse Model System)


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The EURAD ModelThe EURAD Model


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The EURAD Model SystemThe EURAD Model System

�winds, temperature, pressure, cloud processes, boundary layer height, ...

�anthropogenic/biogenic emissions, structured in groups and/or single constituents

�advection, diffusion, dry/wet deposition�chemical transformation: �full mechanisms for gas phase(RADM, RACM, RACM-MIM, ...)�modal Aerosol chemistry (NH4+, NO3-, SO42-, H20, BSOA, ASOA, EC, OC, primary emitted organic material)�aqueous phase�nesting option


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The DomainsThe Domains


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EURAD AQ Prediction: Domain NHEURAD AQ Prediction: Domain NH

Starts every dayStarts every dayAt 00 UTCAt 00 UTC

Northern HemisphereNorthern Hemisphere

Forecast finishedForecast finishedAt 04:30 CESTAt 04:30 CEST

3 day Forecast3 day Forecast


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EURAD AQ Prediction: DomainsEURAD AQ Prediction: Domains

Starts every dayStarts every dayAt 00 UTCAt 00 UTC

3 Domains3 Domains

Forecast finishedForecast finishedAt 08:30 CESTAt 08:30 CEST

3 day Forecast3 day Forecast

Additional Additional domainsdomains

Small scale Small scale applications ~ 1 kmapplications ~ 1 km


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EmissionsEmissions


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•• Basic Emission Data Sources:Basic Emission Data Sources:

•• Global: EDGAR V32Global: EDGAR V32•• Europe: EMEP, TNOEurope: EMEP, TNO•• Local: NorthrhineLocal: Northrhine--Westfalia, LUAWestfalia, LUA--NRWNRW

•• Annual averages with projections till 2020Annual averages with projections till 2020•• (NOx, SO(NOx, SO22, NH, NH33, CO, VOC, PM, CO, VOC, PM1010, PM, PM2.52.5))

•• Spatial transformation to specific domain (grid)Spatial transformation to specific domain (grid)

•• Temporal allocation (daily, weekly, seasonal)Temporal allocation (daily, weekly, seasonal)

•• Chemical split for VOCs (anthropogenic, biogenic)Chemical split for VOCs (anthropogenic, biogenic)

EURAD Model: EmissionsEURAD Model: Emissions


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EURAD Model: Emissions (global)EURAD Model: Emissions (global)

NONOxx, annual emissions, annual emissions


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EURAD Model: Emissions (global)EURAD Model: Emissions (global)

NHNH33NONOxx

GlobalGlobal

ToTo

North.North.HemiHemi--spheresphere


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EURAD Model: Emissions (Europe)EURAD Model: Emissions (Europe)

Spatial transformation

from EMEP EURAD

European scale:

EMEP-TNO

www.emep.int


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EURAD Model: Emissions (local)EURAD Model: Emissions (local)

NONOxx VOCVOC


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AQ Forecast AQ Forecast ––ProcedureProcedure


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OzoneOzoneNO2NO2PM10PM10PM2.5PM2.5SO2SO2COCOBenzeneBenzeneFormaldehydeFormaldehydeetcetc……Air Quality IndexAir Quality Index

EURAD AQ Prediction: ProductsEURAD AQ Prediction: Products

•• daily Maximadaily Maxima

•• maximum 8 hour meanmaximum 8 hour mean

•• maximum 24 hour meanmaximum 24 hour mean

•• AnimationsAnimations

•• Time Series for certain regionsTime Series for certain regions

•• Meteorological fieldsMeteorological fields

Color Color labellabel (according to EU directives):(according to EU directives):


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AQ Prediction: Limits (EU)AQ Prediction: Limits (EU)

> 100> 150> 200Very poor

50 - 10075 - 150100 - 200poor

35 - 5050 - 7570 - 100sufficient

20 - 3530 - 5040 - 70satisfactory

10 - 2015 - 3020 - 40good

0 - 100 - 150 - 20Very good

24h Mean8h Mean1h Mean

PM10 (µg/m3)


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AirAir QualityQuality IndexIndex


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AQ Prediction at www.eurad.uniAQ Prediction at www.eurad.uni--koeln.dekoeln.de


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Recent Air Quality ForecastRecent Air Quality ForecastRegular DomainsRegular Domains


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EURAD AQ Prediction: regular domains EURAD AQ Prediction: regular domains

AnimationAnimationNear surface Near surface concentrationsconcentrationsPMPM10 10 24h mean 24h mean

Valid:Valid:17 October 200717 October 2007

Forecast fromForecast from17 October 200717 October 2007

EuropeEurope


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Near surface Near surface concentrationsconcentrationsPMPM10 10 Max 24h mean Max 24h mean



EuropeEurope


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Central EuropeCentral Europe


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NorthrhineNorthrhine--WestfaliaWestfalia


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EURAD AQ Prediction: ProductsEURAD AQ Prediction: ProductsTime series for CologneTime series for Cologne 17 17 –– 19 October 200719 October 2007


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Recent Air Quality ForecastRecent Air Quality ForecastNorthern HemisphereNorthern Hemisphere


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EURAD AQ Prediction: Hemispheric column EURAD AQ Prediction: Hemispheric column densities densities –– integrated massintegrated mass

NO2 (1015 Molec/cm2) PM10 (mg/m2)


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EURAD AQ Prediction: Hemispheric transportEURAD AQ Prediction: Hemispheric transport

PMPM1010 (mg/m(mg/m22))23 23 –– 25 25 MarchMarch20072007


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Air Quality ForecastAir Quality Forecast--Monitoring Monitoring –– ValidationValidation


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RIU AQ monitoring: 26 Feb 2005; GermanyRIU AQ monitoring: 26 Feb 2005; Germany

ForecastForecast Station ObservationStation Observation

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AnalysisAnalysis Scatter diagramScatter diagram


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ForecastForecast 2d2d--var assimilationvar assimilation


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Air Quality ForecastAir Quality Forecast--Data assimilationData assimilation


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Regional/Local Air Quality Service (RLAQS within ESA PROMOTE)

EURADIM

((EURopean Air pollution Dispersion Inverse Model System)


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Initial and boundary values

• those that maximise the product (paucity of knowledge impact)

• tropospheric modelling:

Which model parameters should be Which model parameters should be optimised?optimised?

Emission Rates / Deposition Velocities

Grid Resolution

Reaction RatesModel Equations

EURADIM:

• initial values and/or• emission rates


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Emission Rate OptimisationEmission Rate Optimisation• time independent scaling factors (for each box and species)• „temporal regularisation“: preserves daily cycle


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Why joint optimisation?Why joint optimisation?

observations

background

assimilation window

initial value opt.

emission factor opt.

init.val. + emis.fact. (joint)


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Operational 3dOperational 3d--var data assimilation and var data assimilation and forecast systemforecast system

• Regional/Local Air Quality Service (RLAQS within PROMOTE)

• RIU:operational forecast and data assimilation productnested simulations (72h each day) with high spatial resolution for various European sub-domains3d-var data assimilation of near-real-time observations- in-situ data from Germany, Austria, Switzerland, France- tropospheric NO2 columns from OMI (Courtesy of KNMI)


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AQ Prediction: Data Assimilation with satellite dataAQ Prediction: Data Assimilation with satellite dataExample: NOExample: NO22 column density BERLIOZ episode 20.7.1998column density BERLIOZ episode 20.7.1998

GO

ME

GO

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retie

val

retie

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Cou

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. Ric

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, IFE

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NOAA 1411:51 UTC


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• Europe (N0)dx = 45 km107 x 97 grid cells

• Central Europe (N1)dx = 15 km67 x 76 grid cells

• Northrhine-Westfalia, Austria, Switzerland (N2)dx = 5 km52 x 52, 79 x 49, 121 x 67 grid cells, respectively

RIU RLAQS: domain configurationRIU RLAQS: domain configuration

N0

N2

N1N2

N2

N2

O3 daily mean (September 15, 2007)


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RIU RLAQS web pageRIU RLAQS web page


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EURAD AQ Prediction: UsersEURAD AQ Prediction: Users

•• LUA NorthrhineLUA Northrhine--WestfaliaWestfalia•• EPA IrelandEPA Ireland•• UBA GermanyUBA Germany•• UBA AustriaUBA Austria•• EMPA SwitzerlandEMPA Switzerland•• TSMS TurkeyTSMS Turkey

•• www.wetteronline.dewww.wetteronline.de (online weather service)(online weather service)•• www.meteomedia.chwww.meteomedia.ch (online weather TV)(online weather TV)


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ConclusionsConclusions

•• Operational Daily forecast system of Air Quality Operational Daily forecast system of Air Quality presentedpresented

•• Scales from Hemisphere Scales from Hemisphere local covered (local covered (250 km 250 km 5 5 km km (and even down to 1 km)(and even down to 1 km)))

•• Everyday Validation of the prediction resultsEveryday Validation of the prediction results

•• Incorporation of inIncorporation of in--situ and Satellite observations (3dsitu and Satellite observations (3d--var data assimilation, 4dvar data assimilation, 4d--var is planned) var is planned)


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AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements

daily forecast of air quality over europe and selected ... · rhenish institute for environmental...

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