daily agri report aug 13
TRANSCRIPT
7/31/2019 Daily Agri Report Aug 13
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/daily-agri-report-aug-13 1/8
Commodities Daily Report
Agricultural Commodities
Monday| August 13, 2012
www.angelcommodities.com
Content
News & Market Highlights
Chana
Sugar
Oilseed Complex
Spices Complex
Mentha
Potato
Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd.
Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093.
Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000
MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302
Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completene
correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whol
part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from “Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd”. Your feedback is appreciated on [email protected]
Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst
(022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130
Anuj Choudhary - Research Associate
(022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132
7/31/2019 Daily Agri Report Aug 13
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/daily-agri-report-aug-13 2/8
Commodities Daily Report
Agricultural Commodities
Monday| August 13, 2012
www.angelcommodities.com
Market Highlights (% change) as on Aug 10, 2012
Last Prev. day WoW MoM
Sensex 17558 -0.02 2.09 0.39
Nifty 5320 -0.05 2.01 0.27
INR/$55.28 0.20 -0.84 -0.43 2
Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl 92.87 -0.52 1.61 8.23 14
Comex Gold - $/oz 1620 0.16 0.85 2.83 -
Source: Reu
News in brief
Spurt in Rains Boosts Pulses AcreageLate rains in Rajasthan are likely to play a key role in determining the
pulses acreage – vital for ensuring protein content in the diet of the
average Indian. In the past few days, a spurt in rains in western Rajasthan
has accelerated pulses sowing in the state, kindling hopes of recovering
pulses acreage deficit. According to the latest sowing data, the total
coverage under pulses is 74.48 lakh hectare as against 89.34 lakh hectare
last year in the corresponding period. Out of the overall deficit of 14.86
lakh hectare, Rajasthan alone accounts for 12.6 lakh hectare.
(Source: The economic times)
Soya, Sunflower Oil Prices to Rise Due to FestivalsThe US Department of Agriculture (USDA) report on low soya bean
production has set on fire the soya oil market, with prices moving
upwards to $1,270 per tonne from $1,230 per tonne on Friday.
Sunflower oil, which India imports from Black Sea countries, has also
seen an upward trend and is trading at the same level as soya oil. Traders
in India say soya and sunflower oil will become costlier in the upcoming
festival season as a large portion of demand will have to be met through
imports. The Indian crop will enter the market by October end as the late
monsoon has delayed harvesting. USDA has forecast soya bean
production at 2.69 billion bushels, a 12% decline from last year. The
expected yields of an average of 36.1 bushels per acre would be the
lowest since 2003. BV Mehta, ED of the Solvent Extractors’ Association,
said: “The scenario is not very good in India and abroad. Soya bean has
been sowed in India but if rains do not continue till October, the yield will
come down affecting production. Groundnut and sunflower sowing has
been affected as there has been little rain in Karnataka and Maharashtra.
Overall, prices of edible oil in the country will remain on the higher side.”(Source: The Economic Times)
Govt Looks to Expand Food Security CoverIt may become UPA plank for 2014 polls and may cost . 1.18 lakh crore
The food ministry has submitted a ‘Plan B’ for the proposed FoodSecurity Bill to the parliamentary standing committee for consideration, a
source in the food ministry said. The new plan, which has reportedly
received clearance from the prime minister, will provide food to a larger
cross-section of population than originally thought. The original Food
Security Bill aimed at providing subsidised wheat and rice to over 63.5%
of the country’s population. The Plan B aims to cover 67% of the
population. The Plan B simplifies the allocation math by suggesting a
uniform food grain quota of 5 kg per person per month for the entire
67% population of the country. The new plan also suggests giving states
the power to identify beneficiaries according to their own criteria, ruling
out any difference with the central government in this regard. The Centre
may frame a guideline which would guarantee food for persons spending
less than Rs 40 in rural areas and 50 in urban areas per day. The new plan
will involve a subsidy burden of 1.18 lakh crore for pan-India rolloutcompared to 1.11 lakh crore for the original plan. The difference is about
7,000 crore, which matches with the amount the government plans to
spend on giving a mobile phone to every BPL family.( Source: The economic Times)
Sugar output in India set to fall on dry weather, says KingsmanSugar output in India, the world's second-biggest producer, may be less
than forecast next year as a drought threatens to cut yields in some
areas, lowering exports, broker Kingsman SA said.Production may total
25 million tonnes in the year starting October 1, compared with 25.5
million tonnes forecast in June, Kingsman said. The estimate matches
those by the Indian Sugar Mills Association and the National Federation
of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd. Output this year is set to total 26
million tonnes, it said. ( Source: Business Standard)
Soyabean farmers in M.P. switching to urea as DAP costs sho
up
Farmers in the country’s largest soyabean producing State, Madh
Pradesh, have started using urea instead of diammonium phospha
(DAP) in its cultivation due to the rising prices of fertilizers. “Urea pric
are comparatively controlled; that’s why farmers are using it
compared to other fertilizers,” Krishak Bharati Cooperative Ltd’s Direct
(Marketing), N. Sambasiva Rao, told PTI. “In this kharif season, we a
finding it hard to buy fertilizers because their costs have increas
immensely. In 2011, a 50-kg sack of DAP cost Rs 860. It has increased Rs 1,272 now,” said a farmer from Indore’s Daulatabad region. “Th
year, consumption of DAP and super phosphate will be 30-40 per ce
less because their prices have risen more than other fertilizers,”
added. Rao attributed the rise in fertilizer prices to rupee depreciati
against the US dollar which has increased import costs of fertilize
However, experts say that for a good harvest, right time and right mix
fertilizers is necessary. ( Source: Business line )
Dairies see milk procurement going up 10-25% in areas hit
dry spell
The prevailing drought-like situation in parts of the country has led
farmers selling more milk in the market. This is reflected from the 10-
per cent rise in milk procurement that co-operatives and corporates ha
registered largely from the dry-spell hit areas. Farmers tend to sell moof milk, which becomes the only source of income when crops are hit
poor rains, Sodhi said. The average daily milk procurement by GCMM
stood at 10.30 million kg in 2011-12. He estimates the country’s over
milk production to sustain a growth of 3-4 per cent this year too. T
Government is yet to officially announce milk production numbers f
2011-12, while the output stood at 122.8 million tonnes for 2010-1( Source: Business Line )
Govt to enhance seed subsidy under drought manageme
programme
The agriculture ministry has in-principle agreed to enhance the se
subsidy under its drought management programme. Cereals, coar
cereals including fodder crops, pulses and oilseeds covered under vario
schemes of the ministry, will benefit from this subsidy. In view of t
deficient rains, this will be applicable for all states where the ministry
implementing its various schemes. The amount of seed subsidy has be
enhanced from Rs 800 to 1,000 per quintal for coarse cereals, includi
millets used for fodder, from Rs 500 to Rs 700 per quintal for cereals a
from Rs 1,200 to Rs 2,000 per quintal for pulses and oilseeds. Some
the major schemes, which will allocate this enhanced subsidy compone
to the states, are Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana, National Food Secur
Mission, Micromanagement of Agriculture, Initiative for nutrition
security through intensive millets, Integrated scheme for oilseeds, puls
oilpalm and maize and Bringing Green Revolution in Eastern India. ( Source: Business Standard )
7/31/2019 Daily Agri Report Aug 13
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/daily-agri-report-aug-13 3/8
Commodities Daily Report
Agricultural Commodities
Monday| August 13, 2012
www.angelcommodities.com
Market Highlights as on Aug 11, 20
% change
Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM
Chana Spot - NCDEX
(Delhi)
Rs/qtl 4914 0.06 -1.72 3.13 5
Chana- NCDEX Aug
'12 Futures
Rs/qtl 4809 0.75 0.78 3.98 4
Source: Reut
Technical Chart - Chana NCDEX Sept contract
Source: Teleq
Technical Outlook valid for Aug 13, 2012
Contract Unit Support Resistance
Chana Sept Futures Rs./qtl 4780-4835 4925-4965
ChanaChana futures traded on a positive note last week due to lower sowing of
kharif pulses. Tight supplies coupled with good demand for Chana ahead
of the upcoming festive season is also supporting the prices. Fears that
the government might take action and may impose stock limits to curb
the rising prices led a correction in the spot. The spot settled 1.72% lower
while the Futures settled 0.78% lower w-o-w.
As per the latest report form IMD, monsoon till 08th
August 2012 were
17% below normal with Rajasthan, Gujarat, Punjab and Haryana affecting
the most. This has led to concerns over kharif pulses output as Rajasthan
accounts for 25% of the kharif pulses production. Also, poor rains would
impact Rabi chana sowing where Rajasthan contributes around 12-13% in
total chana output.
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs yesterday approved the
Minimum Support Prices (MSP) for Arhar (Tur) and Moong for 2012-13
season. The MSP for Arhar has been fixed at Rs.3850 per quintal and of
Moong at Rs.4400 per quintal marking an increase of Rs.650 per quintal
and Rs.900 per quintal respectively.
Government released fourth advance estimates wherein it revisedupward Chana output at 7.58 mn tn from 7.4 mn tonnes estimated in the
third advance estimates and 8.22 mn tn in 2010-11.
Sowing progress and demand supply fundamentals
According to the Ministry of Agriculture 74.48 Lakh hectare area has
been planted under Kharif pulses as on 9th
August, 2012 compared to
89.34 lakh hectare (ha) same period last year, a decline of 16.63% .
Sowing is reported lower mainly in Rajasthan.
Rajasthan Agriculture Department states that planted area under Kharif
Pulses is down at 8.93 lakh hectares ha compared to 19.35 lakh ha same
period last year. (Dated 1st
August, 2012). Acreage may remain lower as
farmers in Rajasthan may shift to other lucrative crops.
However, in AP and Maharashtra, Kharif sowing is up by 5% and 0.2%.
According to the Fourth advance estimates, Pulses output is pegged at
17.21 mn tn in 2011-12 compared with 18.24 mn tn produced in the year
2010-11. While Chana output in 2011-12 is estimated at 7.58 million
tones, Tur is estimated at 2.65 million tones, Urad is estimated at 1.83
million tones, Moong is estimated at 1.71 million tones.
As per the latest release, Ministry of Commerce & Industry revealed that
20.23 lakh tones of peas, 2.03 lakh tons of Chana, 4.32 lakh tons of Urad
& Moong, 1.12 lakh tons of Masoor and 4.26 lakh tons of Tur has been
imported by India during April11-March 12.
India's consumption of pulses is on the rise with an annual growth of
around 5% but production is seen lower, which may lead to increase in
imports this year. However, rupee weakness may turn import costlier.Around 74% of Indian chickpea imports come from Australia.
Outlook
Chana prices may are expected to continue to trade on a positive note on
output concerns in kharif pulses. Tight supplies as well as strong demand
amid festive season may also lend support to the prices. Further, poor
rains in Rajasthan, and thereby concerns over chana sowing over there is
also supporting the upside in the prices. However, if government takes
some measure to curb the rising prices of Pulse, like imposition of stock
limits, prices might come under downside pressure.
In the medium term to long term, the trend remains positive as supplies
may not be sufficient to meet the rising demand of the commodity. Also
lower sowing of kharif pulses may support chana prices.
7/31/2019 Daily Agri Report Aug 13
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/daily-agri-report-aug-13 4/8
Commodities Daily Report
Agricultural Commodities
Monday| August 13, 2012
www.angelcommodities.com
Market Highlights as on Aug 11, 2012 % Change
Unit Last Prev. day WoW MoM Yo
Sugar Spot- NCDEX
(Kolkata) Rs/qtl 3800 -2.94 -3.06 9.91 2
Sugar M- NCDEX
Aug '12 Futures Rs/qtl 3532 -0.98 -2.51 9.35
Source:
International Prices as on Aug 10, 2012
% Change
Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM
Sugar No 5- Liffe-
Oct'12 Futures
$/tonne 578.5 -0.52 -5.10 -11.00
Sugar No 11-ICE
Oct '12 Futures
$/tonne 460.89 -0.29 -5.73 -7.78
Source: Re
Technical Chart - Sugar NCDEX Sept contract
Source: Te
Technical Outlook valid for Aug 13, 2012
Contract Unit Support Resistance
Sugar Sept NCDEX Futures Rs./qtl 3425-3455 3520-3540
SugarSugar prices corrected last week on account of profit booking. Also,
reports that the government may release additional sugar to arrest the
rise in prices ahead of the festive season also led to the correction. The
Spot as well as the Futures settled 3.06% and 2.51% lower w-o-w.
Industry body has estimated 7 mn tn stocks for the new season beginning
October 01, 2012 compared to 5.5 mn tn year ago. India may exports 2.5-3 mn tn sugar in 2012-13. (Source: Reuters)
The Central Government has released additional 4 lakh ton of non-levy
sugar for the month of August, 2012. With the earlier release of 45 lakh
ton in June and 2.66 lakh ton in July the total 51.66 lakh ton non-levy
sugar will be available.
According to a circular issued by FMC a Minimum Initial Margin of 10% of
the value of the contract or VaR based margin whichever is higher will be
imposed on all running contracts and yet to be launched contracts of
Sugar with effect from beginning of trading day Monday, Aug 06, 2012.
In the international markets Liffe white sugar as well as ICE raw sugar
settled 0.52% and 0.29% lower Friday.
Domestic Production and ExportsAs on 9
thAugust, 2012, the area under sugarcane is estimated at 52.88
lakh ha, up from 50.59 lakh ha on same period a year ago.
Despite of higher acreage, the producers body has estimated next year’s
output lower at 25mn tn, down by 1mn tn compared to the current year.
Sugar production in India — the world’s second-biggest producer —
touched 26 million tonne since October 1, 2011.
IMD has so far predicted normal rains in August. However, rains in the
first week of august are still 1% below average. If monsoon recover in the
month of August, then there would not be much downward revision in
the output and vice a versa.
With the opening stocks of 7 mn tonnes, domestic Sugar supplies are
estimated at 32mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22.5-
23 mln tn for 2012-13 season. Thus, no curbs on exports are seen as of now.
Global Sugar Updates
According to Unica, Mills in Brazil's main center-south cane region
produced 9.32 mn tn of sugar since April, down 22 percent from a year
ago,
With a return to a normal weather pattern, cane harvesting is in full
swing. While sugar output reached 2.63 mn tn in the first two weeks of
July, up 2% from a year ago.
Brazil's exports of raw sugar fell to 1.29 million tonnes in June, down by
30% from 1.85 million tonnes a year earlier.
The global sugar surplus remains on target to fall in 2012/13 season,
though declines will be less than previously suggested, while adverse
weather in several producers may stop prices dropping far below recent
levels. (Source: Reuters)
According to the International Sugar Organization (ISO), the global sugar
surplus is forecast to halve to around 3 mln tn in 2012/13 (October-
September) from a surplus of 6.5 million tonnes in 2011/12).
Outlook
Sugar prices are expected to trade on sideways to positive in the
intraday. Festive season demand and comparatively lower supplies may
support the prices. However, any action by the government to control
the rising prices may lead to a correction in the prices.
Long term outlook for sugar would depend on the monsoon in the month
of August and September and thereby output estimates for next season
that will begin in October.
7/31/2019 Daily Agri Report Aug 13
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/daily-agri-report-aug-13 5/8
Commodities Daily Report
Agricultural Commodities
Monday| August 13, 2012
www.angelcommodities.com
Market Highlights as on Aug 11, 2012
% Change
Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM
Soybean Spot- NCDEX
(Indore)
Rs/qtl 4597 0.28 2.77 0.17
Soybean- NCDEX Aug'12
Futures
Rs/qtl 4613 -0.94 2.43 0.32
Ref Soy oil Spot-
NCDEX(Indore)
Rs/10 kgs 777.2 0.47 -0.57 -1.13
Ref Soyoil- NCDEX Aug '12
Futures
Rs/10 kgs 776.1 0.23 -1.28 -1.63
Source: Reuter
as on Aug 10, 2
International Prices Unit Last
Prev
day WoW MoM
Soybean- CBOT-
Aug'12 Futures
USc/
Bushel 1710 0.89 3.22 11.57 2
Soybean Oil - CBOT-
Aug'12 Futures
USc/lbs 53.6 2.31 3.00 2.72 -
Source: Reuters
Crude Palm Oil as on Aug 11, 2012
% Change
Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM Y
CPO-Bursa
Malaysia – Aug '12
Contract
MYR/Tonne 2830 0.46 -2.31 -7.30
CPO-MCX- Aug '12
Futures
Rs/10 kg 555.5 0.34 -1.99 -1.77
Source: Reuter
RM Seed as on Aug 11, 2012
Unit LastPrevday WoW MoM
RM Seed Spot-
NCDEX (Jaipur)
Rs/100 kgs 4275 1.79 -1.84 1.79
RM Seed- NCDEX
Aug '12 Futures
Rs/100 kgs 4327 -0.51 -2.21 2.24
Source: Reuters
Technical Chart –Soybean NCDEX Oct contra
Source: Teleq
Technical Outlook valid for Aug 13, 2012
Contract Unit Support Resistance
Soy Oil Sept NCDEX Futures Rs./qtl 77-781 790-794
Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures Rs./qtl 3885-3925 4030-4075
RM Seed NCDEX Sept Futures Rs./qtl 4318-4345 4405-4435
CPO MCX Sept Futures Rs./qtl 546-549 556-560
Oilseeds
Soybean: Soybean futures traded on a bullish note last week
ahead of the USDA monthly crop report. However, the prices
corrected towards the end of the week of profit booking as well as
rains in the soybean belt in Madhya Pradhesh. The Spot as well as
the Futures settled 2.77% and 2.43% higher w-o-w.
India's oil meal exports fell to 2.75 lakh tn in July from 2.82 lakh tn a
year earlier led by a sharp drop in the overseas sales of rapeseed
meal. Soy meal exports rose to 1.68 lakh tn in July, from 1.39 tn a
year ago.
The only factor that is supporting the upside in the coming week is
the USDA report which I expected to be released on Friday.
In the international markets CBOT Soybean traded on a bullish note
as the USDA released its monthly crop report. USDA cut its U.S.
2012/13 soybean production forecast to 2.692 billion bushels, from
3.05 billion in July. Continued export demand from China added
support. CBOT Soybean settled 0.89% higher on Friday.
In the domestic markets, as on 9th
August Oilseeds have been sown
in 151.82 lakh hectares so far, compared with 157.9 lakh hectares
same period last year. Soybean area is higher at 103.2 lakh hectares.In 2011-12 season, soybean was sown under 102.9 lakh hectares
area and recorded 12.28 million tonne output, down from 12.73 mn
tn in 2010-11 season.
Indian acreage may touch record high levels this year as farmers
have opted for this remunerative crop across India.
Refined Soy Oil: NCDEX Soy Oil and MCX CPO corrected last week
due to higher stocks in Malaysia. Lower exports also led to a
correction in the prices. Malaysian supplies are higher due to
seasonally higher yield during the period (July-October).
Malaysian palm oil Production has risen consistently since March
2012 and expected to go as high as 1.9 mn tn in September. On the
other hand, exports have fallen 14.8 percent in July to below
1.23mn tonnes compared to 1.45mn tonnes a month ago due to alull in Asian demand.
India imported 124,125 tonnes of refined palm oil in June, down
nearly 25 percent from May. Total vegetable oil imports in June
were 783,315 tonnes, down 12.7 percent from 896,921 tonnes in
the previous month, the data from the Solvent Extractors'
Association (SEA) showed.
Rape/mustard Seed: NCDEX mustard seed prices corrected last
week due to lower mustard meal exports. The Futures settled 2.21%
lower w-o-w. Mustard output this season has declined significantly
and deficient rains Rajasthan would not provide proper moisture for
mustard sowing next season. This would keep the downside
restricted.
According to a circular issued by NCDEX, existing Special Cash
Margin of 5% on the Long side shall be increased to 15% on all therunning and yet to be launched contracts w.e.f beginning of
18/07/2012.
OutlookSoybean prices may trade sideways in the intraday. Downside
pressure may persist on account of higher area under cultivation
and expected higher yield of soybean due to good rains in MP.
Nevertheless, sentiment remains cautious as the soybean crop in
the US has suffered severe damage and thus USDA report to be
released on Friday may show downward revision in output. Also, the
possibility of an El Nino returning to Southeast Asia could hamper
output in top producers Indonesia and Malaysia.
7/31/2019 Daily Agri Report Aug 13
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/daily-agri-report-aug-13 6/8
Commodities Daily Report
Agricultural Commodities
Monday| August 13, 2012
www.angelcommodities.com
Market Highlights as on Aug 11, 2012
% Change
Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM Y
Pepper Spot-
NCDEX (Kochi)
Rs/qtl 42933 0.35 0.14 2.01 33
Pepper- NCDEX
Aug '12 Futures
Rs/qtl 45250 1.42 3.59 5.65 35
Source: Reu
Technical Chart – Black Pepper NCDEX Sept contract
Source: Teleq
Technical Outlook valid for Aug 13, 2012
Contract Unit Support Resistance
Black Pepper NCDEX Sept Futures Rs/qtl 43200-43650 44250-446
Black PepperPepper Futures traded on a positive note last week due to dwindling
stocks in the domestic markets, which lent support to the prices at lower
levels. However, lower demand for Indian pepper in the international
markets capped sharp upside movement. The Spot as well as the Futures
settled 0.14% and 3.59% higher w-o-w.
According to the circular released on June 13th
2012 the existing Specialmargin of 10% (cash) on the long side stands withdrawn on all running
contracts and yet to be launched contracts in Pepper from beginning of
day Friday June 15, 2012.
Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at
$8,400/tonne(C&F) while Vietnam was offering its produce at
$6,000/tonne for 500 GL. Brazil was offering its pepper at $6,150/tonne
for the B-Asta grade.
As per circular dt. 29/06/2012 issued by NCDEX, Hassan will be available
as an additional delivery centre for all the yet to be launched contracts.
(not applicable to the currently available contracts-till Dec 2012 expiry).
ExportsAccording to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper in April 2012 fell by
47% and stood at 1,200 tonnes as compared to 2,266 tonnes in April2011. India imported 1,848 tonnes of pepper till March 2012 and has
become the third country to import such large quantity after UAE and
Singapore. (Source: Agriwatch )
According to Vietnam Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development
(MARD) exports of black pepper in 2012 are forecasted at around
1,25,000 tonnes. Exports of Pepper from Vietnam during January till June
2012 is estimated around 73000 mt 73,000 mt, higher by 4.3% in volume
and 31.7% in value compared to corresponding year last year. Exports of
Pepper from Brazil during January till May 2012 are estimated around
13369 mt. (Source: Peppertradeboard ).
Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 14.8%
in the first 2 months of the year (2012) to 8810 tn as compared to 10344
tn in the same period previous year. Imports of Pepper in the month of
February declined by 16.8% to 3999 tn as compared to 4811 tn in themonth of January 2012.
Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared
to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599
tonnes in the last year. During May 2012 Brazil exported 1,705 tonnes of
pepper as against 1600 tn in May 2011.
Production and ArrivalsArrivals of pepper in domestic market stood at 21 tonnes while offtakes
were 20 tonnes on Saturday.
Global Pepper production in 2012 is expected to increase 7.2% to 3.20
lakh tonnes as compared to 2.98 lakh tonnes in 2011 with sharp rise of
24% in Indonesian pepper output and in Vietnam by 10%. According to
latest report pepper output in Vietnam is estimated to be 1.35 lakh
tonne as compared to 1.10 lakh tonne estimated early in the beginning of
year (2012).
Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by
3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to
2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) On the other hand
production of pepper in India in 2011-12 is expected to decline further by
5% to 43 thousand tonnes as compared to 48 thousand tonnes in the last
year. Production is lowest in a decade.
OutlookPepper prices in the intraday trade sideways to positive note as lower
stocks in the domestic markets as well as buying ahead of the festive
season may support prices.
On the other hand reports of fresh arrivals from the Indonesia and
Malaysia might cap sharp gains in the short term.
7/31/2019 Daily Agri Report Aug 13
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/daily-agri-report-aug-13 7/8
Commodities Daily Report
Agricultural Commodities
Monday| August 13, 2012
www.angelcommodities.com
Market Highlights as on Aug 11, 2012 % Change
Unit Last
Prev
day WoW MoM Y
Jeera Spot-
NCDEX(Unjha)
Rs/qtl 16294 0.00 -1.72 5.21 5
Jeera- NCDEX Aug
'12 Futures
Rs/qtl 15618 -2.01 -5.53 2.63 1
Source: Reu
Technical Chart – Jeera NCDEX Sept contract
Source: Telequ
Market Highlights as on Aug 11, 2012
% Change
Unit Last
Prev
day WoW MoM Yo
Turmeric Spot-
NCDEX (N'zmbad)
Rs/qtl 5481 0.00 3.43 16.68 -13.
Turmeric- NCDEX
Aug '12 Futures
Rs/qtl 5518 -1.88 -7.88 10.67 -4.
Technical Chart – Turmeric NCDEX Sept contract
Source: Telequ
Technical Outlook valid for Aug 13, 2012
Unit Support Resistance
Jeera NCDEX Sept Futures Rs/qtl 15620-15725 15980-1610
Turmeric NCDEX Sept Futures Rs/qtl 5465-5536 5730-5810
JeeraJeera Futures corrected last week on fears that the regulator may take
some action to curb the volatility. The spot prices also witnessed a
downside movement as export demand reduced due to very high
prices. Farmers are not selling their stocks anticipating better prices.
Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. The spot as well as
the Futures settled 1.72% and 5.53% lower w-o-w.Expectations are that large export orders may be diverted to India
from the international markets due to the ongoing civil war in Syria
which is hampering supplies. Export demand from Bangladesh,
Pakistan and other countries may support the prices at lower levels.
Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 1,000 tonnes
and around 5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations. Jeera prices in the
international market of Indian origin are being offered at $3,000/tn
(c&f) while Syria and Turkey are not offering their produce.
Carryover stocks of jeera in the domestic market is expected to be
around 7-8 lakh bags as compared to 4-5 lakh bags in the last year.
Production, Arrivals and ExportsUnjha markets witnessed arrivals of 4,000 bags, 2,000 bags lower
compared to previous day while off-takes stood at 3,000 bags on
Thursday. Production of jeera in 2011-12 is expected to be around 40lakh bags as compared to 29 lakh bags in 2010-11 (each bag weighs 55
kgs). (Source: spot market traders).
According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera in April 2012 stood
at 2,500 tonnes as compared to 2,369 tonnes in April 2011, an
increase of 6%.
OutlookJeera prices are expected to trade sideways today. In the medium to
long term (Aug-September 2012) prices are likely to witness a bounce
back as there are limited stocks with Syria and Turkey and crop there
is 30% short as compared to last year.
TurmericTurmeric witnessed a sharp correction last week after the after the
regulator disallowed creating of fresh positions in the August contract.However, the spot remained positive due to lower sowing this season.
Erode mandi remained closed towards the end of the week on account
of Janmasthmi, a local festival and will reopen on Monday. Rainfall in
Nizamabad is 24% lower than the normal as on 1/8/2012. Turmeric
has been sown in 0.44 lakh hectares in A.P as on 8th
August 2012. The
Futures settled 0.18% higher on Friday. As per circular issued by
NCDEX, no fresh positions will be allowed in respect of Turmeric
August 16, 2012 expiry contract from August 07, 2012 till the expiry
of the contract. Only squaring up of existing positions will be
allowed.
The pre expiry margin on Turmeric has been increased to 5% for last 7
trading days increased on a daily basis on both buy and sell side from
the existing 3% on daily basis for last 5 days.
Production, Arrivals and ExportsArrivals in Nizamabad mandi stood at 2,000 bags on Thursday.
Turmeric production for the year 2011-12 is projected at historical
high of 90 lakh bags (1 bag= 70 kgs) compared to 69 lakh bags in 2010-
11. Erode is expected to produce 55 lakh bags of turmeric a rise of
29% as compared to previous year.
According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012
increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011.
OutlookTurmeric prices are expected to continue to trade lower as
participants may square off their positions in the August contract after
the regulator disallowed creating of fresh positions.
In the medium to long term (Aug to September) prices may take cues
from the sowing figures.
7/31/2019 Daily Agri Report Aug 13
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/daily-agri-report-aug-13 8/8
Commodities Daily Report
Agricultural Commodities
Monday| August 13, 2012
Market Highlights as on Aug 11, 2012 % Change
Unit Last
Prev
day WoW MoM
Mentha Oil- MCX
Spot (Chandausi)
Rs/qtl 1524 -0.69 -0.21 9.48
Mentha Oil MCX –
July Futures
Rs/qtl 1311 -3.92 -6.37 -1.90
Source:
Technical Chart – Mentha Oil MCX Aug contra
Source: Te
Market Highlights as on Aug 10, 2012
% Change
Unit Last
Prev
day WoW MoM
Potato Spot-
NCDEX (Agra)
Rs/qtl 1155 0.00 -2.50 6.09
Potato- NCDEX
Aug '12 Futures
Rs/qtl 1177 1.75 -2.41 1.15
Technical Chart – Potato NCDEX Sept cont
Source: Te
Technical Outlook valid for Aug 13, 2012
Unit Support Resistan
Mentha Oil Aug Futures Rs/kg 1282-1295 1325-13
Potato NCDEX Sept Futures Rs/qtl 1152-1168 1195-12
Potato MCX Sept Futures Rs/qtl 1183-1200 1230-12
Mentha OilMentha oil Futures corrected last week due to lower export demand
as export demand has been met. Also, gutkha ban led to lower
demand in the domestic markets. Increasing supplies in the domestic
markets also pressurized the prices. The spot as well as the Futures
settled 0.21% and 6.37% lower w-o-w.
Total Special Cash margin of 25% on the long side of Mentha Oil hasbeen reduced to 10% in the May contract and 5% in June contract
onwards from May 5, 2012.
For detailed reference please refer to the Circular No:
MCX/T&S/180/2012 dated 03/05/2012.
Production, Arrivals and ExportsAccording to spot market sources, the overall acreage is estimated to
increase from 1.75 lakh ha to 2.1 lakh ha this year. The overall
production of Mentha is expected to increase by 30% - 40% as
compared to last year.
Arrivals of the fresh crop are going on in the mandis and currently
stand around 1200 drums (each drum weighs 180 kgs).
Exports of Mentha during April 2011 to January 2012 witnessed a
decline of 6% to 12,850 tonnes as compared to 13,550 tonnes in the
same period last year.
OutlookIn the intraday trading session Mentha oil is expected to trade lower.
Lower export demand may pressurize prices. However, buying at
lower levels may emerge from stockists anticipating good demand
from pharmaceutical companies may support prices at lower levels.
In long to medium term (July-September) prices are likely to remain
under pressure due to peak arrival period.
PotatoIn intraday potato September futures settled lower owing to dull
demand in the market.
Commodity market regulator Forward Markets Commission (FMC)
has banned launch of new Tarkeshwar potato contracts.
Also From 01-08-2012 no fresh positions shall be allowed during theStaggered Delivery period in all running contracts of Potato in MCX
and NCDEX. Only squaring off of existing positions will be allowed
during the Staggered Delivery period.
Production and Arrivals ScenarioAround 200-220 lakh MT potato had been stored in the country in
different cold storages during the current season. Although 27-30% of
the cold storage stocks are released so far from overall producing
belts, they are much lower compared to normal 35-38% every year.
According to NHRDF, The sowing of potato seed for Kharif production
in Karnataka completed but the area sown is adversely affected due to
less and delayed rains. The sowing in hills of Himachal Pradesh,
Uttarakhand and Jammu and Kashmir are also completed. The seed
sowing in Maharashtra for Kharif is continued, which is delayed due to
delay arrival of monsoon, which is still scanty. The area for Kharif is
expected to be less or may be same with delayed planting compared
to last year, but it depends on further rains.
With reports of crop damages in Karnataka, the supplies from this
region to other states may also be affected as the overall output is
expected to decline by 70-75%. In fact, the state may have to rely on
the supplies from the north Indian markets.
OutlookPotato futures in intraday may correct further on account of weak
demand at higher levels, also the participants fear that the
government may take some measures to curb the rising prices.
Upcoming festive season might provide support to the prices in
Medium term.