daily agri report, april 25

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Commodities Daily Report

Agricultural Commodities

Thursday| April 25, 2013

www.angelcommodities.com

Content

News & Market Highlights

Chana

Sugar

Oilseed Complex

Spices Complex

Kapas/Cotton

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Market Highlights (% change) as on April 23, 2013

Last Prev. day WoW MoM

Sensex 19179 0.05 2.32 2.37 1

Nifty 5837 0.04 2.60 3.28 1

INR/$ 54.31 0.18 0.63 -0.07 Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl 89.18 0.47 0.52 -4.83 -1

Comex Gold - $/oz 1409 -0.87 1.57 -12.30 -1

.Source: Reu

Solvent extractors seek hike in import duty on refined veg oilWith cheaper import of refined palm oil hitting the business of loc

vegetable oil refiners, the Solvent Extractors Association has demand

an increase in import duty on refined oil to 12.5 per cent. At present, th

import duty on refined vegetable oils is 7.5 per cent, while it is 2.5 p

cent on crude vegetable oils. The duty difference between these two o

is only 5 per cent. “SEA has strongly once again represented to t

Government to kindly consider immediately to raise the import duty

refined oil by 5 per cent to 12.5 per cent to bail out the domestic refine

from disaster,” SEA President Vijaya Data said in a statement. TMumbai-based SEA said that its demand is in line with t

recommendations made by the Economic Survey and Tariff Commissi

to have a duty difference of 10 per cent between the two kinds

vegetable oils. ( Source: Business Line)

Expecting prices to surge, farmers hold back turmericSpot turmeric prices decreased in Erode due to lack of upcountry orde

“Exporters are waiting for new upcountry orders; so they are stayi

away from buying. Local traders are buying quoting lower price f

fulfilling their orders to the masala firms. Stockists have begun buyi

huge quantities. “Already they are holding stocks of over 10 lakh ba

and now they have decided to stock more,” said R.K.V. Ravishank

President of the Erode Turmeric Merchants Association. He said that t

turmeric cultivation in 2012 was meager and now, due to severe droug

no farmer is ready to grow turmeric. In fact, farmers have begun to sto

up turmeric expecting prices to touch Rs 15,000 a qtl. ( Source: Business Line)

Delay in fixing subsidy puts fertiliser firms in a spotThe delay in announcement of subsidy rates for de-controlled phospha

(P) and potassic (K) nutrients for the current fiscal has put the fertilis

industry in a quandary. While the new subsidy rates should have be

effective from April 1, fertiliser makers are currently tagging bags w

the maximum retail prices (MRP) of the last rabi season printed on them

This, even as it is expected that the Government would lower the subsi

rates in line with the fall in international prices. Currently, di-ammoniu

phosphate (DAP) is being imported into the country at a landed cost

around $520 a tonne, against $580. Likewise, imported muriate of pota

(MOP) is now being quoted at $430 compared with $490 a tonne la

year. Despite the fall in global prices, fertiliser firms are still printing thMRP for DAP and MOP at the last rabi season levels of Rs 24,000 and

17,000. ( Source: Business Line)

Rain to trim Brazil's sugar, ethanol outputBrazilian crop analyst Datagro lowered its estimates for Brazil's 2013/

cane crush and for sugar and ethanol output on Wednesday due to rai

early this year that will likely bring down the recoverable sugar levels

the crop. Datagro President Plinio Nastari said the center-south ca

crush should reach 584.5 million tonnes, down from his previo

estimate of 587 million. His sugar production estimate fell to 35.4 millio

tonnes from 36.6 million in March and his ethanol estimate fell to 24.

billion liters from 24.5 billion. Brazil's cane crop and sugar output will st

be record, surpassing last year's 536 million tonnes of cane and

million tonnes of sugar. ( Source: Reuters)

News in brief Rice Stock in Central Pool Kitty Stand 35.46 Million TonnesAs per data available from the Food Corporation of India (FCI) Rice stocks

in India’s central pool as of April 1, 2013 stand at around 35.46 million

tonnes, the highest ever for this time of the year, Current rice stocks are

about 6% higher than rice stocks of around 33.35 million tons recorded

during the same time last year, and about 2.5 times the buffer andstrategic norms of around 14.2 million tons required as on April 1, 2013.( Source: Agriwatch)

Chinese Palm Oil Imports up 1.1 Percent in MarchAccording to the Chinese customs authorities, China’s palm oil imports

increased by 5.43 percent to 1,487,788 tons in the first three months of

2013 compared to the last year same period. Meanwhile, Chinese palm

oil imports were 591,223 tons, up 1.13 percent on m-o-m basis. Crude

Palm Oil June contract at BMD ended lower at 2255 MYR/MT down 43

from previous settlement price. ( Source: Agriwatch)

Allahabad HC petitioned on cane arrearsA public interest suit was filed at the Lucknow Bench of Allahabad High

Court (HC) on Monday over sugarcane arrears on sugar mills in Uttar

Pradesh. It has been filed by Sardar V M Singh of Rashtriya Kisan

Mazdoor Sangathan. The petitioner has prayed for immediate settlement

of arrears, 15 per cent interest payment over delay and relief to cane

farmers on their loans until their dues were paid by the mills. The HC is

likely to hear the suit on April 24, sources told Business Standard. The

petitioner has also affixed a Supreme Court order, which says if the

arrears were not settled within 14 days, recovery certificates be issued

automatically, lest the officials be held responsible. It has named the

state and the cane commissioner as defendants. ( Source: Business Standard)

UP’s private sugar mills taste bitter pill Uttar Pradesh’s (UP) private sugar mills are faced with the double

whammy of mounting sugarcane arrears and police cases pertaining to

under- weighing and dues. While the sugarcane arrears of the 2012- 13

crushing season have crossed Rs. 6,150 crore, about 60- 65 firstinformation reports (FIRs) had been filed against the mills for under-

weighing and non- payment of cane dues. Majority of the FIRs pertain to

under- weighing during the procurement of sugarcane from farmers’

societies. “Only eight to 10 cases have so far been lodged against the

mills for the cane arrears,” a senior cane department official told

Business Standard. Such FIRs had been lodged in Moradabad, Meerut,

Muzaffarnagar and Baghpat districts. He added if the mills failed to clear

the dues “beyond a point”, recovery certificates (RCs) would be issued

against the defaulters and the sugar and molasses stocks could be seized

by the district administration for liquidation to settle the outstanding.

Under RCs, 10 per cent additional recovery is made as a penalty, which is

then deposited with the respective tehsil treasury. ( Source: Business Standard)

MP might miss wheat procurement target Inclement weather, coupled with the aggressive entry of private traders

into the wheat market, is likely to throw a spanner in the Madhya

Pradesh government’s record wheat procurement target of 11 million

tonnes ( mt) for this year. So far, the wheat procured from mandis stands

at only a third of the target. For this season, the crop in the state is

estimated at 16.2 mt. Traders are running out of wheat stocks and are

pre- empting buying wheat from the open market and selling it to flour

mills at higher prices. Flour mills don’t have substantial wheat stocks and

are keeping away from the market, as prices in the open market have

surged. The Food Corporation of India aims to procure 44 mt of from

various regions across the country. Of this, a quarter is expected to be

procured from Madhya Pradesh. Traders and sources in the government,

as well as in mandis, said farmers were holding on to wheat stocks,

anticipating higher prices. ( Source: Business Standard)







Market Highlights as on April 23, 201

% change

Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM

Chana Spot - NCDEX

(Delhi)

Rs/qtl 3500 0.00 -2.89 2.53 -

Chana- NCDEX

Apr'13 Futures

Rs/qtl 3545 -0.78 -1.31 4.63 -

Source: Reut

Technical Chart - Chana NCDEX May contract

Source: Teleq

Technical Outlook valid for Apr 25, 2013

Contract Unit Support Resistance

Chana May Futures Rs./qtl 3500-3520 3565-3595

ChanaChana traded with a negative bias on Tuesday on account of higher

arrivals of the new crop which have pressurized prices. However,

demand from stockists coupled with reports of lower yield in MP due to

unseasonal rains prevented a sharp downside in the prices. The spot

settled unchanged while the Futures settled 0.78% lower on Tuesday.

Chana prices have recovered significantly in the past couple of weeks as

stockists have started building inventories to meet the demand for the

entire season. Concerns over the yield in Madhya Pradesh, the largest

chana producing state, due to unfavorable weather conditions was also

supporting an upside in the prices.

However, higher supplies of the new crop from the major producing

states such as Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra is seen

capping sharp gains in the physical markets.

Demand supply scenario

Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support

prices (MSP), have helped expand overall acreage in 2012-13 season. The

Centre has hiked the MSP by 14 per cent to Rs 3,200 a quintal for chana

and as part of its strategy to encourage farmers to grow more pulses to

reduce import dependence.

Chana sowing in the current season is 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha

compared to previous year. Acreage is up in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, MP

and AP at 15.7 lakh ha, 12.53 lakh ha, 32.99 lakh ha and 7.33 lakh ha

respectively.

According to second advance Estimates released on 8th

Feb 2013, Total

pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 17.58 mn tn, down

3.3% compared to previous year. The target for 2012-13 pulses crop

output was set at 18.24 million tonne during the year. However, drought

conditions have hampered kharif pulses output, which has been only

partially offset by Rabi pulses output, especially chana.

Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 23% lower at5.48 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 8.72% higher at 12.09 mn

tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12.

There has been a sharp increase in the chana output estimates on the

back of higher acreage and good yield. Chana output is expected to

breach its 2010-11 record of 8.2 mn tn and is estimated at 8.57 mn tn for

2012-13. In its first advance estimates chana output was pegged at 7.9

mn tn. However, erratic weather in M.P. may lower the yield.

Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likely

to reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source:

Agriwatch).

Trade Scenario

According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of February declined to0.46 lakh metric tonnes compared to 2.31 lakh metric tonnes during the

previous month.

India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher

availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen

boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall.

In Australia, total chickpea production in 2012 –13 is estimated to have

increased to a record 713000 tones as compared with 485000.

Outlook

Chana may is expected to continue to trade on a downside today as

increasing arrivals of the new crop may pressurize prices. However,

demand from stockists may restrict a major downside. Overall output in

the current season is comparatively higher and thus no major upside is

expected over a medium term.







Market Highlights as on April 23, 2013 % Change

Unit Last Prev. day WoW MoM Yo

Sugar Spot- NCDEX

(Kolhapur) Rs/qtl 3038 -0.02 -0.84 -1.08

Sugar M- NCDEX

Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl 2934 -0.07 0.86 -0.17

Source:

International Prices as on April 24, 2013

% Change


Sugar No 5- Liffe-

May'13 Futures

$/tonne 499.5 -0.93 -1.46 -4.07

Sugar No 11-ICE

May '13 Futures

$/tonne 386.67 -1.92 -2.52 -3.17

.Source:

Technical Chart - Sugar NCDEX May contract

Source: Te



Sugar May NCDEX Futures Rs./qtl 2900-2915 2940-2955

SugarSugar prices in the domestic markets are seen consolidating at lower

levels as higher supplies is seen offsetting the summer demand. The May

contract hit a fresh contract low of Rs. 2918 in the intraday. The spot as

well as the futures settled 0.02% and 0.07% lower on Tuesday.

The Government has cleared the partial decontrol of sugar. According tothis, the government will now have to buy sugar from the mills at open

market prices. Also the release mechanism will be done away with, after

September 2013. States will decide on the FRP of cane.

Indian sugar mills produced 23 million tonnes of the sweetener between

Oct. 1 and March 31, about 2 percent less than a year earlier.

The Central Government has decided to make available quantity of 104

lakh tons of sugar, as non-levy quota for open market sale, for the 6

months of April, 2013 to September, 2013.

Domestic Production and Exports

India is likely to produce 24.6 mn tn of sugar in 2012-13 year ending on

Sept. 30, higher than the previous estimate of 24.3 mn tn, the Indian

Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said last week.

With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are

estimated at 30.8 mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22.

5 mln tn for 2012-13. Exports are not viable as international prices have

also declined significantly.

Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar said that the sugar output in

2013-14 may fall to around 24 mn tn against current year’s output

of 24.5 mn tn.

A severe drought in top sugar producing Maharashtra state has

been affecting new plantation and is likely to affect on sugar

production in the year starting from Oct. 1, 2013.

Global Sugar Updates

Liffe sugar as well as ICE Raw Sugar futures declined sharply by 0.93%

and 1.92% on Wednesday on account of surplus supply situation for the

third consecutive year. Coupled with improvement in the harvest in the

South American region, especially Brazil, the world’s top producer. The

prices are trading around their 3 year lows.

Heavy rain in the cane belt of top world sugar producer Brazil has slowed

early progress of an expected record cane harvest. Brazil's sugar

production will jump to a record level in the 2013/14 season just now

starting, with a surge in cane output from an expanded planted area,

favorable weather and efforts to renew old and less productive cane

plants.

Expectations of abundant supplies from the 2013-14 harvest in the other

leading producers, such as Thailand, Mexico and the United States have

kept prices under pressure. Sugar prices are trading around 2½ year lows.

Outlook

Sugar are expected to trade sideways in the intraday. Prices may

consolidate at lower levels over the next few days. Supplies will continue

to remain high as millers will release stocks to clear cane arrears. This

will offset summer season demand and recovery in the international

markets.








% Change


Soybean Spot- NCDEX

(Indore)

Rs/qtl 3997 1.34 -0.08 8.64

Soybean- NCDEX Apr '13

Futures

Rs/qtl 3964 2.84 0.32 8.98

Ref Soy oil Spot-

NCDEX(Indore)

Rs/10 kgs 724.5 0.00 0.34 5.03

Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Apr

'13 Futures

Rs/10 kgs 706.5 0.68 -1.64 2.74

Source: Reuter

as on April 24, 2

International Prices Unit Last

Prev

day WoW MoM

Soybean- CBOT-

May'13 Futures

USc/

Bushel 1404 -1.11 -1.28 -2.53 -

Soybean Oil - CBOT-

May'13 Futures

USc/lbs 49.18 1.26 -0.43 -2.48 -1

Source: Reuters

Crude Palm Oil as on April 24, 201

% Change

Unit Last

Prev

day WoW MoM

CPO-Bursa

Malaysia – Apr '13

Contract

MYR/Tonne 2285 0.88 1.38 -7.11

CPO-MCX- Apr '13

Futures

Rs/10 kg 461.8 0.11 0.30 0.07

Source: Re

RM Seed as on April 23, 20

Unit Last

Prev

day WoW MoM

RM Seed Spot-

NCDEX (Jaipur)

Rs/100 kgs 3473 -0.29 -1.49 -0.90

RM Seed- NCDEX

Apr'13 Futures

Rs/100 kgs 3472 0.06 0.29 0.29

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart –Soybean NCDEX May contra

Source: Teleq



Soy Oil May NCDEX Futures Rs./qtl 696-700 709-712

Soybean NCDEX May Futures Rs./qtl 3820-3880 3990-4030

RM Seed NCDEX May Futures Rs./qtl 3435-3450 3485-3505

CPO MCX Apr Futures Rs./qtl 456-459 464-467

OilseedsSoybean: Soybean traded on a positive to bullish note on account

of poor supplies in the domestic markets. Weak international prices

coupled with weak meal export demand had pressurized prices last

week. The spot as well as the Futures settled 1.34% and 2.84%

higher on Tuesday.

Indian soy meal suppliers are renegotiating deals with Iranian buyers

for April and May shipments as demand for Indian soy meal has

slowed significantly due to the higher prices, and buyers are seeking

alternative South American supplies.

India’s soy meal exports in April are likely to fall to 200,000 tonnes,

down 36 percent from a year ago, unless buying from Iran improves.

Exports of Soybean meal during March, 2013 was 3,20,265 tonnes as

compared to 4,61,892 tonnes in March, 2012 lower by 30.66% y-o-y.

International MarketsSoybean declined 1.11% on Tuesday ahead of expected movement

of large South American crop. Forecasts for US weather to improve

next week coupled with Chinese soy imports data also pressurized

prices. Sentiments remain weak on account of smooth supplies fromBrazil coupled with demand fears amid bird flu in China.

Surge in soybean imports by China, the biggest buyer, may decline

this year as feed consumption drops following a bird-flu outbreak.

National Oilseed Processors Association data released lasat week

showed the U.S. soybean crush rose marginally to 137.08 million

bushels in March, in line with forecasts for a slight gain from 136.3

million bushels in February. Soy oil stocks edged lower to 2.765

billion lbs, versus 2.79 billion lbs in February.

Brazil's government lowered its forecast for the 2012/13 soybean

crop from 82.1mn tn to 81.9 mn tn.

Refined Soy Oil: Ref soy oil as well as MCX CPO settled 0.68% and

0.11% higher on account of higher domestic soybean as well aspositive BMD prices.

Indian government increased the base import price on crude

soybean oil by US $1 per tons to US $1094. Besides, base import

price on crude palm oil sets at US $ 827 and reduced base import

price on palmolein crude as well as refined to US $ 864 per tons and

US $867 per tons.

Imports of all vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, fell 7.5 per

cent to 896,714 tn in March, pulled down by the drop in palm oil

imports. Palm oil imports dropped 12% to 708,262 tn in March.

Malaysia, the world's No.2 palm oil producer, will set its crude palm

oil export tax for May at 4.5 percent, unchanged from April.

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products from April 1 to 15 inched

down 4% to 648,275 tonnes from 675,210 tonnes shipped duringMarch 1 to 15.

Rape/mustard Seed: Mustard Futures settled marginally higher

by 0.06% on account of short coverings. Higher arrivals have

pressurized prices over the last few days. Sowing of Mustard seed is

up by 2.2% at 67.23 lakh ha. Agriculture ministry in its third advance

estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%.

OutlookSoybean prices may trade sideways. Poor supplies in the domestic

markets may support prices at lower levels. However, weak meal

export demand coupled with bird flu in China and supplies from

South America may pressurize prices. Soy oil and CPO may also

trade sideways. Weak international markets coupled with

comfortable stock levels may pressurize prices.







h


% Change

Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM Y

Pepper Spot-

NCDEX (Kochi)

Rs/qtl 36100 -0.04 -0.48 -1.77 -6

Pepper- NCDEX

Apr '13 Futures

Rs/qtl 35195 -0.24 -2.32 -2.17 -6

Source: Reu

Technical Chart – Black Pepper NCDEX May contract

Source: Teleq



Black Pepper NCDEX May Futures Rs/qtl 34900-35040 35350-355

Black PepperPepper Futures traded with a negative bias as higher supplies of the

Karnataka crop coupled with weak exports demand continued to mount

pressure on the prices at higher levels. However, lower supplies as well

as good demand for the Kerala crop supported prices at lower levels.

Interstate traders, especially from Tamil Nadu are actively buying the

Kerala crop. Karnataka crop is trading at lower levels due inferior quality.Exports demand for Indian pepper in the international markets is weak

due to price parity. Food Safety and Standards Authority of India sealed

the entire quantity of pepper stored in six warehouses in Kerala of about

8,000 tonnes. The Spot as well as the Futures settled 0.02% and 0.24%

lower on Tuesday.

According to a circular issued by NCDEX on 09/02/2013, launch of June

2013 expiry contract in Pepper which is scheduled on February 11,

2013, has been postponed till further notice. The revised launch date

will be announced in due course.

Spices Board has announced plans to import high yielding Madagascar

variety that was behind the record productivity in Vietnam. It could raise

productivity of Indian pepper from 2,000 kg/ha to 7,000 kg/ha.

Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $6,900/tn(C&F, New York). Vietnam’s Asta is quoted at $6,925-6,975/tn, Indonesia

GM-1 is quoted at $6,900/tn and Brazil Asta is quoted at $6,600/tn.

Exports and ImportsIndia’s Apr-Jan 2012-13 pepper exports were reported at 11,550 tn,

down 48% (Source: Factiva) while imports reported at 15,000 tonnes making

India a net importer. (Source: Agriwatch )

According to the latest IPC reports, Vietnam exported around 39,000

tonnes of pepper in the 1st

quarter of 2013.

Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 9% in

2012 period to 62,458 tn as compared to 68,489 tn in 2011.

Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared

to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599

tonnes in the last year. Brazil exported 25,900 tn pepper during Jan-Nov

2012, around 20% lower compared with 32,650 tn in the same period

last year. Exports from Malaysia 8,300 tn pepper during Jan-Oct 2012,

lower by 30% last year while exports in October stood at 1,077 mt in.

Production and ArrivalsThe arrivals in the spot market were reported at 25 tonnes while off

takes were reported at 25 tonnes on Tuesday.

As per IPC, Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn, up

compared with 3.18 lk tn in 2011. Production for 2013 is projected at

316832 tn. Indonesian pepper output is expected to rise by 24% and in

Vietnam by 10%. According to estimates, pepper output in Vietnam is

estimated to be 1.05 lakh tonne in 2012 as compared to 1.1 lakh tonne in

2011. Brazil is also expected to produce 22,000 tn this year.

Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by

3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to

2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) Pepper production in

2012-13 is expected around 60,000-63,000 tonnes. Harvesting of pepper

in some regions in Kerala is already complete.

OutlookPepper Futures is expected to trade sideways with a negative bias today.

Higher arrivals of the Karnataka crop coupled with weak overseas

demand may pressurize prices from higher levels. However, Good

interstate demand for the Kerala pepper coupled with low supplies may

support prices at lower levels. Lack of stocks for delivery due to lock up

of pepper in the NCDEX accredited warehouses may also support prices.

No new contracts on the futures markets may keep traders away.








% Change

Unit Last

Prev

day WoW MoM

Jeera Spot- NCDEX

(Unjha)

Rs/qtl 13500 0.00 -0.81 0.86

Jeera- NCDEX Apr

'13 Futures

Rs/qtl 13050 -0.67 -2.17 -0.02

Source: Reu

Technical Chart – Jeera NCDEX May contract

Source: Telequ


% Change

Unit Last

Prev

day WoW MoM Yo

Turmeric Spot-

NCDEX (N'zmbad)

Rs/qtl 6598 0.14 -5.52 1.86 97.

Turmeric- NCDEX

Apr '13 Futures

Rs/qtl 6500 -0.73 -6.98 -1.72 81.

Technical Chart – Turmeric NCDEX May contract

Source: Telequ

Technical Outlook Valid for Apr 25, 2013

Unit Support Resistance

Jeera NCDEX May Futures Rs/qtl 12780-12900 13150-1334

Turmeric NCDEX May Futures Rs/qtl 6360-6430 6610-6700

JeeraJeera May futures declined on Tuesday on account of higher supplies

of the new crop in the domestic markets. However, good overseas

demand cushioned the downside. The spot settled unchanged while

the futures settled 0.67% lower on Tuesday. Higher exports data

coupled with fresh export enquiries as well as a pickup in the domestic

demand had supported an upside in the prices earlier this month.Arrivals of the new crop are averaging around 35,000 bags/ day. New

crop from Rajasthan has also entered the markets. Higher sowing as

well as conducive weather in Gujarat, the main jeera growing region

has increased output expectations. According to Gujarat State Agri

Dept. sowing in Gujarat is reported at 3.352 lakh ha in 2013 compared

with 3.719 lakh ha last year. According to the Rajasthan State Budget

2013-14, it has exempted jeera from VAT.

Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Expectations are

that export orders may still be diverted to India from the international

markets due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil

war. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000

tonnes and around 4,000-5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations.

Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international

market at $2,450 tn (FOB Mumbai) while Syria and Turkey are not

offering. Carryover stocks of Jeera in the domestic market is expected

to be around 8-9 lakh bags.

Production, Arrivals and ExportsArrivals in Unjha were reported at 22,000 lakh bags on Wednesday.

Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 38-40 lakh bags (55

kgs each), same as last year.

Exports of Jeera between Apr 2012- Jan 2013 stood at 64,400 tn, an

increase of up 86%. (Source: Factiva)

OutlookJeera Futures is expected to trade with a negative bias. Higher arrivals

of the new crop may pressurize prices. However, good overseas as

well as domestic demand may support prices a lower levels. Overall

trend remain positive for the Jeera prices as they are likely to stay firm

as Syria & Turkey have stopped shipments.

TurmericTurmeric futures traded with a negative bias on account of higher

arrivals of the new crop. However, good domestic as well as overseas

demand coupled with lower output supported prices at lower levels.

Unseasonal rains in Andhra Pradesh have damaged about 9240 tonnes

of turmeric. The spot settled marginally higher by 0.14% while the

futures settled 0.73% lower on Tuesday.

Production, Arrivals and ExportsArrivals in Erode mandi stood at 7,000 bags while Nizamabad

remained closed on Wednesday.

Expectations are that production may be lower by 40-50%. There arereports of some crop damage in Erode region. Turmeric production in

2012-13 is expected around 45 lakh bags. Production in Nizamabad is

expected around 12 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is projected at

historical high of 10.62 lakh tn. It is estimated that next year’s

carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags.

According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012

increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011.

Outlook

Turmeric is expected to trade with a negative bias today. Weak

exports data coupled with higher supplies of the fresh crop and huge

carryover stocks may pressurize prices at higher levels. However,

export demand coupled with demand from stockists may support

prices at lower levels. Crop damage and output concerns may also

support prices at lower levels.







% Change

Unit Last Prev. day WoW MoM

NCDEX Kapas Apr

Futures

Rs/20 kgs 857 0.88 -3.00 -7.40

MCX Cotton Mar

Futures

Rs/Bale 17810 -0.89 -0.61 -0.61

Source: R

International Prices as on April 23, 2

% Change


ICE Cotton USc/Lbs 81.1 -1.91 -4.19 -7.09

Cot look A Index 91.9 -0.65 0.27 -3.01

Source: Re

Technical Chart - Kapas NCDEX April contract

Source: Te

Technical Chart - Cotton MCX April contract

Source: Te


Contract Unit Support Resistanc

Kapas NCDEX April Futures Rs/20 kgs 830-844 865-880

Cotton MCX April Futures Rs/bale 17560-17700 18000-181

KapasNCDEX Kapas settled 0.88% higher extending previous day’s gains while

MCX Cotton declined 0.89% on Tuesday due to weak demand as well as

weak international prices. Lower supplies in the domestic markets

supported prices at lower levels. Expectations of export demand from

China in the coming days have also supported the prices at lower levels.

However, the overall sentiments remain weak as mills are avoidingbuying as they expected CCI to offload stocks. Weak global market

sentiments have also added downside pressure. The state-run Cotton

Corporation of India (CCI) has said that it would offload stocks in the

open market to augment supplies. Cotton Corp of India has also sought

permission to export 1 mn bales.

Lower supplies in the domestic markets and rising cotton prices have

caused concerns for textile industry, which is demanding government to

direct CCI and NAFED to offload the cotton stock to domestic mills.

India's imports of cotton this year could reach 1.5 mn bales, missing

earlier estimates of more than 2 mn as the govt may to start selling its

stockpiles.

Cotton supplies since the beginning of the year in October 2012 until

February 10, 2013 were down at 183.4 lakh bales, down from 189.27

lakh bales a year earlier.

Domestic Production and Consumption

The Cotton Association of India CAI has estimated the cotton crop for the

season 2012-13 at 35.1 million bales as against 37.3 million bales in

2011- 12.

However, higher exports and domestic consumption can be met through

revised higher opening stocks of 40 lakh bales and higher imports.

After witnessing record exports in 2011-12 season, Indian exports could

witness significant fall this season on the back of lower availability along

with unattractive domestic cotton prices. CAB estimates cotton exports

at 80 lakh bales this season, compared with 128.8 lakh bales last year.

Global Cotton Updates

ICE cotton declined sharply on Tuesday and settled 1.91% lower on

account of long liquidation by investors. Prices declined last week as

investors continued to liquidate and mills held off purchasing into the

falling market.

According to China Cotton Association, China will continue with its

stockpiling policy this year which will boost imports.

Exports were higher compared to previous week but lower compared to

four week average. According to the USDA report, planting intentions for

the 2013-14 season are said to be at a 4 year low. Also, there are

expectations of good export demand from China. Reports of India and

China releasing stocks from the state reserve led to a decline in the

prices.China, the world’s largest consumer, is expected to sell about 3 mn tn of

cotton this year from state reserves of around 10 mn tn.

USDA has initially forecasted US Cotton acreage for 2013-14 season, at

smallest in 20 yrs, however, with recent surge in prices, farmers may

decide to plant more cotton. The planting intention data is schedule to

be released on 28th march 2013.

Outlook

We expect Cotton prices to trade on a mixed note today. Weak global

market sentiments coupled with lack of buying by mills in the domestic

markets may pressurize prices. However, decline in supplies from

farmers due to lower prices may support prices at lower levels. China will

continue its stockpiling policy, may also support prices. US cotton

planting intentions were reported at a 4 year low.

daily agri report, april 25

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