cyanobacteria bloom forecasting in lake erie tim wynne
TRANSCRIPT
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Cyanobacteria bloom forecasting in Lake Erie
Tim Wynne [email protected]
National Water Quality Monitoring Council WebEx Meeting May 14, 2015
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Goals
• Determine where and when there was cyanobacteria in Lake Erie.
• Forecast where the bloom will be later this week.
• Forecast how bad the next year’s bloom may be.
• Evaluate potential risk of toxins in the vicinity of municipal water supplies.
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Satellite Imagery
• MERIS (ESA) was used from 2002-2011 • MODIS (NASA) was used from 2012-2014 • MODIS is well past its projected lifetime
and is deteriorating. • ESA is launching a follow up to MERIS
called OLCI and should be available next summer (2016).
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Why MERIS instead of MODIS?
• MERIS is less noisy. Chlorophyll August 20, 2008
MODIS
MERIS
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Detection Algorithm (stay with me)
Bloom negative “Positive Cyano Index”
No Bloom “Negative Cyano Index”
Wynne et al., IJRS, 2008
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So essentially we used negative fluorescence
• Why does this work? • Small cell size = lots of scatter • Gas vaccuoles = lots of scatter • Most chl in cyanos is in photosystem 1
which has low fluorescence. • In bloom conditions fluoresced light will be
reabsorbed by adjacent cells. • Hence: high scattering and low
fluorescence
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MODIS * 1.3 = MERIS
Wynne et al 2013 IJRS
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Validation disclaimer Comparing 1200 meters x 1200 meters x 1 meter satellite pixel with a 5 mL field sample.
~12 orders of magnitude difference between field samples and satellite pixel
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Validation disclaimer part 2
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Algorithm Performance From Wynne et al., 2010 L&O
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Using particle tracking to create a forecast
We will bring in satellite derived area and concentration and a hydrodynamic model into GNOME (General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment)
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Write particles back out into an image
Wynne et al Ecol .Appl. 2011.
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Caveats of surface particle tracking
Optical depth
turbulence
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Wind stress effects on detection
Biomass mixed through water column
Calm, little mixing, all biomass near surface
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Twice weekly forecast
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Seasonal forecast; How severe will next year’s bloom be?
• Took CI images and made 10 day composites
• Why 10 day composites? • Negate wind effects • Account for relatively slow growth of
cyanos (doubling time is ~10 days). • Generally cloud free image • Easier to work with
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Annual Concentration
Consider the average concentration of the 3 biggest sequential 10-day composites as the “heart” of the bloom.
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Strategy
The Maumee has the largest drainage area of any Great Lakes river with 8,316 square miles.
It has been suggested in the literature that a high Q from the Maumee would lead to increased P in the Lake. Implication is that lots of P,mean lots of cyanos in Lake Erie. Seems reasonable to me, but is it true?
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River Discharge
Stumpf et al 2012. PLoS One
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Rolling Seasonal Predictions
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Bloom Timing
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Extracted average CI data
August 30-Sept 8 Max Area
Sept 9 - Sept 18 Max Biomass
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Water intake stations…
Wynne and Stumpf 2015, Toxins.
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Conclusions
• Weekly forecasts since 2009 (twice weekly since August 2014).
• Seasonal forecasts since 2012