cve 4070 construction engineering risk management prof. ralph v. locurcio, pe
TRANSCRIPT
CVE 4070
Construction EngineeringRisk ManagementProf. Ralph V. Locurcio, PE
Views of risk taking…
What is risk???
An outcome different from what you expected or estimated…
Or… different from what you bid!
Sources of risk in construction…
Construction operations are hazardous Labor capacity, capability, competence… Subsurface conditions; physical factors Contractual provisions; timing, LDs… Economic conditions; prices, labor… Political & public; new laws, opposition
Basic premise…
All risks accrue to the owner unless assigned by contract to another party
In assigning risk to another they must be (a) able to assess the risk fairly, (b) competent to do the task, and (c) result in a better solution
Risk allocation… at start
Owner
Designer Builder
Not yet involved
Risk allocation… traditional
Owner
Designer Builder
Risk allocation… design-build
Owner
Designer + Builder
Risk Management Tools
Best Value procurements Two stage bid process Contractor helps finalize design Incorporates VE
Risk Management Risk identification Analysis Response
Pareto Principle
80/20 rule… States that 80% of the value comes
from 20% of the activities.
Therefore, we need a method to focus on the 20% of the activities that have the most influence on the outcomes.
And… we should avoid the 80% of activities that produce little gain
Best Value Process
UnderstandClient
Requirements&
Intent
BrainstormPossible Areas
forAdding Value
Find & IncludeExperts in Key Areas
DevelopOptions
WithPros & Cons
ID PreferredSolution &
Obtain NeededDesign Info
Present toExec Team
ForDecision
PreliminaryDesign
DetailedDesign
DevelopmentPlans
&Specs
Final ReviewBy
Exec Team
Final ApprovalBy
ClientConstruction
Contractor
Risk identification
Identify areas of risk intensity1. Buildability, logistics, health & safety2. Environmental, permits3. Cost environment
Develop risk registers1. Catalog all risk factors2. Assign responsibility to team
members
Risk analysis
Use decision & simulation theory Quantify maximum effect of each risk Identify probability of occurrence Determine economic impact of each Determine impact of combinations
Risk response
Plan mitigation strategies Specific action to be taken Avoidance, sharing, protection, etc. Accountable team member Account for inter-relationships Account for multiple risk scenarios
Construction Risk Management
Avoidance Retention
Insurance
Education & Training
Exemption Clauses
Risk sharing
Protection Clauses
Retention Money
Liquidated Damages
Rescind contract
Contingencies
Basic risk management-1…
Build a Risk Allocation Matrix Identify all potential risk of loss Assign to Owner, Contractor or Designer Quantify your potential loss Develop a risk management strategy
Basic risk management-2
Management strategies… Avoid the potential loss Transfer the risk Share risk with another firm Mitigate the potential for loss Recover any unavoidable loss
• Claim• Insurance• Litigation
Basic risk management-3
Keys to allocation of risk… Must be a reward for any risk assigned Asignee must be able to control risk Must produce “best” solution Must have financial capability Must follow terms assigned
Risk Management Strategies
Avoidance Transfer or Sharing Mitigation Insurance Recovery
Avoidance… Careful estimating & bidding Study the contract terms Study the owner’s style & record Study limits of insurance Prior planning for construction
Examine the plans, specs & conditions Examine the contract requirements Examine the site for unknowns & hazards Examine each process & plan your method
Transfer or sharing…
Reduce source & size of risk Use the contract terms
General conditions Plans & specs
Negotiate new terms May not work with government
Change strategic approach Merger or joint venture with another firm Hire subcontractor for high risk work Purchase additional insurance
Mitigation…
Good planning & communication Quality control processes
Use/acquire the right skills Use/acquire the right equipment Use your experience wisely
Act promptly if the unexpected occurs
Insurance…
Covers unexpected situations Situations beyond your control
Your track record is important Cost is a factor Do not overuse
Recovery…
Read the contract Good record keeping… especially
impacts Follow correct procedures Demonstrate mitigation efforts Make a convincing presentation Attempt settlement at lowest level Seek legal help
Cost recovery 101 (a)…
Detailed Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) for estimating List & code each activity & duration Establish start & finish dates & labor hours List materials required & procurement lead Labor hours for shop drawings & submittals Have accounting code for each of above
Cost recovery 101 (b)…
Develop change/claim spreadsheet Use bid data as base line List all estimated activities & costs in a WBS Calculate “actual” duration & costs for WBS Establish % triggers to identify problems Notify owner’s rep immediately of problems
Cost recovery 101 (c)…
Use data to analyze source of problem Defective plans & specs Differing site conditions Interruption of work flow Unusual weather conditions Delay in receiving EI or submittal response Problems with labor Bad bid
Cost recovery 101 (d)…
Read the contract Begin mitigation immediately to minimize loss Stay within contractor’s authority Determine risk allocation for each problem Comply with all notification requirements Request contract change when required Establish new activity code for all added work Track cost of new work Quantify delay to other work
Pyramid Cost Estimate-1… =SUM(E8/
F8+G8*E8+H8*E8)*B8
=SUM((E8/F8*I8)+(G8*E8*J8+10)+(H8*E8*K8+10))B8
Labor Cost Const Laborers(L) Labor Rate
Time (Note1) ($/day) Labor
DaysS/U
Man-days
L/day Prod
Super Mgt L S M Cost
Planning 550 S 37,675 50 0.8 .1 .02 $5 $15 $30 $240,625
Master Plan 400 S 27,400 50 0.8 .1 .02 $5 $15 $30 $175,000
Site Selection 500 S 53,000 50 0.5 .1 .02 $5 $15 $30 $312,500
Build Camp 200 U 84,533 250 0.6 .02 .004 $2 $10 $20 $184,667
Demob Camp 150 U 63,400 250 0.6 .02 .004 $2 $10 $20 $138,500
Hire Workforce 1800 S 48,960 20 0.8 .1 .01 $5 $15 $30 $325,800
Train Team 1 500 S 65,500 100 0.8 .05 .01 $2 $10 $20 $170,000
Train Team 2 700 S 91,700 100 0.8 .05 .01 $2 $10 $20 $238,000
Train Team 3 650 S 85,150 100 0.8 .05 .01 $2 $10 $20 $221,000
Prep Const Site 550 U 929,867 1000 0.6 .02 .004 $3 $12 $25 $2,948,000
Const Core 3000 U12,144,00
0 2000 0.5 .02 .004 $3 $12 $25 $38,100,000
Pyramid Cost Estimate-2…Trim Exterior 2400 U 2,428,800 500 0.5 .02 .004 $3 $12 $25 $7,656,000
General Design 2000 S 137,000 50 0.8 .1 .02 $5 $15 $30 $875,000
Design Structure 520 S 17,810 25 0.8 .1 .02 $5 $15 $30 $118,950
Open Quarry 200 U 33,813 100 0.6 .02 .004 $3 $12 $25 $110,800
Cut Blocks 2400 U 971,520 200 0.5 .02 .004 $3 $12 $25 $3,091,200
Cut Trim 2000 U 809,600 200 0.5 .02 .004 $3 $12 $25 $2,576,000
Interior Design 1000 S 34,250 25 0.8 .1 .02 $5 $15 $30 $228,750
Room Constr 2500 U 2,138,333 500 0.6 .04 .004 $3 $12 $25 $7,025,000
Int Finishes 2200 U 842,914 250 0.7 .1 .004 $4 $14 $30 $4,022,857
Final Inspection 200 S 27,200 100 0.8 .1 .01 $8 $20 $50 $254,000
Demob Const Site 400 U 161,920 200 0.5 .02 .004 $2 $10 $20 $350,400
Bury Pharoah 100 S 13,211 100 0.9 .2 .01 $10 $30$10
0 $183,111
Labor Sub-total 21,247,55
7 $69,546,160
Pyramid Cost Estimate-3…
=SUM(B34*E34)
Stone Cost#stone
s T/
stone Tons$/
Ton =SUM(F34*G3
4)
Cut core2,556,98
8 37,670,964 $20 $153,419,280
Place Core-Note(3)
2,556,988 3
7,670,964 $12 $92,051,568
Cut trim 45,970 0.5 22,985 $10 $229,850
Place Trim-Note(3) 45,970 0.5 22,985 $45 $1,034,325
Stone Sub-total $246,735,023
Pyramid Cost Estimate-4…
=SUM(D8+D9+D10+D13+D14+D15+D16+D20+D21+D25+D28+D30)
Support Cost #man days $/man-day
Skilled Workers(S) 638,856 $10 $6,388,561
Unskilled Workers(U) 20,608,701 $4 $82,434,804
Support Sub-total 21,247,557 $88,823,365
Grand Total $405,104,548
Questions?