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Current Challenges in Planning Transport Networks. A case study in Ecuador

1. Ecuador and its transport network

Ecuador is a democratic republic located in the northwest of South America with a population of almost 16

million spread over a surface area of approximately 250.000 km2 (INEC, 2014), bordered by Peru on the

southeast, Colombia on the north and the Pacific Ocean on the west. Geographically, this country encompasses

24 provinces including the Galapagos Islands, divided traditionally into 3 main topographical regions: the Pacific

Coast in the west, the Andean Highlands in the centre, and the Amazon Rainforest in the east. In a large

longitudinal study, the Ministry of International Trade (MCE, 2014) informed that the country is known as one

of the major economies of Latin America due the political stability and macroeconomic development presented

in recent years. Ecuador, with a per capita growth of nearly US$ 9,000 per year, is the third fastest growing

economy in the region with an estimated 7% growth in its GDP.

In relation to transport, Ecuador has built close to 9.663 km. of roadways around its national territory, of which

68.85% are in a good state, 24.17% in a satisfactory condition and 6.99% in a poor situation (MTOP, 2014).

Moreover, the country has developed roughly 104 airports with paved runways under 914 m. and over 3.047

m., 328 airports with unpaved runways below 914 m. and above 1.523 m (DGAC, 2014). Similarly, there are 1500

km of waterways, 4 major commercial ports, in addition to nearly 17 private ports. In light of prevailing advances

over its core transport infrastructure, Ecuador has taken a “quantum leap” with an accrued investment in public

works of around $7.8 billion (circa £5 billion) during the period 2007-2014 in contrast with the average

expenditure assigned by previous governments of $0.5 billion (circa £0.3 billion) between 2000 and 2006 (MTOP,

2012).

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Nonetheless, despite the several macroeconomic endeavours developed recently, especially in its main cities,

Ecuador is still considered by some authors to be a “stagnating country” in transport facilities in the world. This

perspective is supported by Schwab et.al (2014) who analysed the data from 148 countries and concluded that

the global competitiveness index of this nation was 4.2 out of 7.0, being ranked 71st place among world’s top

100 most competitive nations. It seems a problematic situation for a developing economy, but if this ranking

only considers the top 22 countries in the Americas for appraising their quality of transport infrastructure (QTI)

and a longitudinal study of their overall logistic infrastructure performance (LIP) produced by Arvis et.al (2014),

Ecuador will be ranked into the 8th position among the emerging countries in which their logistics and

transportation performance is leading instead of lagging. Transport infrastructure performance indexes for the

remaining states are shown in Figure 2.

2. Transport trends, national policies and strategies in Ecuador

In a high level graphic illustration, Figure 3 shows the transport trends in Ecuador, divided into 2 main parts:

passenger travel and freight transport. There has been an unvarying increase on the movement of passengers

by roadway mainly by the use of public transport and private cars, being the backbone of the transport system

in the nation and the cheapest mode for moving people due to fuel subsidy. Commuting behaviours in urban

areas as Guayaquil, Quito, Cuenca, Machala and Ambato have also demonstrated an evident preference in public

transport on average 70%, growing from 21.366 in 1998 to 43.352 in 2013 with an average annual growth rate

of 6%. Indeed, car ownership has decreased dramatically in recent years from 61% in 1998 to 33% in 2013 only

considering those automobiles for private use (INEC, 2014). However, automotive fleet growth between 1998

and 2013 has varied from 218.741 to 563.859 vehicles in just 15 years with an average annual growth rate of

9%.

Similarly, the air transport sector in this country has experienced a strong, steady growth over the whole last

decade, with an expected sustainable growth rate of 10% reaching a plateau of about 38% in 2006 by reason of

increased passenger demand, new market strategies and routes developed by regional and domestic airlines in

Ecuador. Nevertheless, travel volume for passenger movements in other modes has been shifting. The Figure 3

shown that the proportion of passenger traffic by railroad has grown nearly 127% since 2011 as a result of the

reconstruction of the Ecuadorian railway network, after being declared in 2008 a national cultural heritage of

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the state for tourism purposes. Conversely, preliminary data of people travelled by waterway demonstrates a

low demand of this transport service during the period 1999-2009, climbing gradually for the next 3 years and

dropping dramatically in 2013 at rate of 54% owing to the tourists’ journeys tends to be longer and frequents in

comparison with the transport systems appraised above.

Referring to freight movement in metric tonne, Figure 3 reveals that there has been a balanced advancement

on the waterborne traffic mainly in inland waters and ocean areas close to main ports and harbours in big cities

as Guayaquil, Machala, Esmeraldas Manta and La Libertad. With a year-over-year growth rate of about 25%, this

sector has a strong strategic importance for the Ecuador’s net exports. Road freight transport is the second main

way for the displacement of goods and services both internally and into surrounding countries an average annual

growth rate of 5% for the last 15 years, with a . Similarly, airborne cargo has remained more or less stable during

10 years with an expected increase of 7%, reaching a plateau of about 201.035 metric tonnes in 2013 due to the

deprivatization of some air carriers in the country at the end of 2011. Notwithstanding, rail freight transport has

been declining for decades at the relatively constant rate of approximately 49%, now transformed in one of the

leading luxury passenger railroad in South America. In spite of freight pipeline transport is not considered in the

annual reports published by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC), volume of crude oil and

petroleum products transported by pipeline have had an expected sustainable growth rate of 7% in barrels

produced during the period 1972-2013 with an overall variation for about 31% (BCE, 2013).

Nowadays, transport is a critical factor to the everyday lives of Ecuadorian citizens. Historically, this sector has

represented for about 9% of Ecuador’s GDP (BID, 2013), generating a direct contribution for around 1.7% of total

employment in the country (WTTC, 2014). Therefore, since 2008, the Ecuadorian government has developed a

national strategy that has allowed to determine its productive structure and prioritize its development. This

strategy has been embodied in the “National Plan for Good Living 2013-2017”, which confirms the relevance of

transforming the productive matrix and thus strengthen the transport and logistics system in the nation. In order

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to support this policy framework, the National Secretariat for Planning and Development (SENPLADES)

established the “Organic Code for Territorial Organization, Autonomy and Decentralization” (COOTAD) where

decentralized autonomous governments have greater independence for determining their local development

strategies and fostering programmes that meet national priorities (including transportation planning)

throughout workshops with provincial representatives and other stakeholders involved in the release of the

“National Decentralization Plan 2012-2015”.

The Ministry of Transport and Public Works (MTOP) created in 2007 is the main organization responsible for the

transport network in Ecuador supported by 5 undersecretaries and 15 directorates that gets people and goods

travelling around the nation. Aware of the shortcomings on the current infrastructure, the MTOP has developed

the “National Strategic Mobility and Transport Plan” (PEM). Its wide-ranging multimodal guidance for developing

the transport network by 2020, 2028 and 2037 periods respectively, address the requirements for connecting

the country and improving the quality of life of its citizens. This plan has covered various national initiatives such

a new legal and institutional framework for the transport sector, a comprehensive and hierarchical road system,

sustainable growth of the airport network, a restructured effective port system, a railway for the 21st century

and an economical public transport system. Proposal for an integrated multimodal transport infrastructure by

2037 is shown in Figure 4.

On current trends and strategic programmes applied across the country, passenger travel and freight transport

will intensify for the next decades, being decisive its planning for furthering a prosperous society by the free

circulation of goods and services, as well as its accessibility to work, education, leisure and other activities on

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the country. Notwithstanding, Ecuador still faces a significant number of problems and challenges in planning

transport networks, which will be appraised in the following excerpts from the discussion section.

3. Key major transport challenges in Ecuador

3.1. Boosting sustainable transport modes as a viable and attractive alternative for the future mobility

Mass passengers and freight transport mechanisms in main Ecuadorian cities cause journeys to take much longer

period than they normally would. In most of them peak traffic hour lasts for about two hours and during that

period buses are overloaded to capacity, especially in Bus Rapid Transit Systems in main cities as Quito and

Guayaquil, most of the roads are overcrowded with vehicles and the traffic flow becomes very slow. In other

urban areas as Machala and Cuenca, the narrowness of the streets, which were built long before the motorised

transport and absence of parking facilities around the congestion hotspots are the central cause of traffic jams.

Automobiles may be parked along the edges of the carriageways restricting movement to a narrow lane and the

multiplicity of narrow streets, high-pitched corners and waits to turn into roadways may slow down the

movement and therefore create even greater bottlenecks. Furthermore, mixture of vehicles (HGVs, LCVs, two-

wheelers, etc.) leads to uncontrollable chaos across the highways, giving rise to slow displacement of traffic,

high fuel consumption rates, air and noise pollution, accidents and increased commuting time between urban

and rural areas.

Moreover, according to the World Health Organization (2014), Ecuador is facing a huge health challenge from

noncommunicable diseases like obesity, diabetes and cancer. It is thus critical to recognise the significant impact

that sustainable transportation can play in preventing and mediating many forms of demographic problems.

Figure 5 reports how the walking and cycling average rate for about 4% in Ecuadorian main cities is extremely

low in contrast with the average usage rate of this sustainable transport system of approximately 42% in other

“smart cities” around the world essentially Vienna, Copenhagen, London, Barcelona, Berlin, Paris, Tokyo and

New York. Nevertheless, the expected daily usage rate of public transport system in Ecuador close to 70% against

the statistics of usage below 50% from other South American capital cities remains as a potential opportunity

for promoting an environmentally friendly mobility inside the metropolitan areas. It is important to mention

that the Ecuadorian Government have been working in the deployment of the “National Cycle Network Plan”

since 2012 with other local authorities, currently building almost 1.686 km. of cycleways around the country and

investing more than $9.5 million (circa £6.1 million). Even so, is just the beginning for enhancing the productive

matrix regarding sustainable transport systems and diminishing its adverse health effects on the Ecuadorian

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population, nothing compare with £900 million up to 2022 that will be invested in improvements for cycling as

part of the “London’s Road Modernisation Plan” in United Kingdom (TfL, 2014).

3.2. Deploying an integrated framework for national decisions on land-use and transport planning

The SENPLADES since 2012 have been implementing a new land-use and transport planning framework over the

country with the aim of establishing order in urban/rural planning and budgeting procedures. Still, few local

governments have managed to complete a solid strategic plan in their respective districts. Many of the local

authorities mainly in the Pacific Coast region see the interaction of transport and land-use planning as an

imposed obligation and an obstacle to business growth as usual. This social phenomenon hits poor communities

hardest and informal settlements across the country grow rapidly without basic services, making poverty seem

an endless tunnel. It extends to rural areas, as their communities often depend on close towns’ facilities for

health care, education and other services.

Furthermore, a small number of professionals with enough skills to design local transport policies and strategies

as well as project planning and risk management rarely get involved in public affairs for the enhancement of the

productive matrix of the country. It is necessary to highlight that one of the key concerns in Ecuador is the

shortage of transport professionals, research centres and postgraduate programmes related to this strategic

sector. In addition, the participation of the higher education institutions in national urban and transport planning

projects is almost inexistent, leading to continuous acts of “improvisation” on mobility and accessibility

initiatives through various isolated projects based on just “good intentions”.

Transport Planning Strategy Country Key Sustainable Transport Objectives

NPPF - Transport White Paper 2011-2050 GBP

Decentralise economic power and land use planning, improve transparency and local accountability, simplify local transport funding, improve end-to-end journeys by enabling most public transport.

LTMP - Land Transport Master Plan 2013-2030 SGP

Integrate land use, town and transport planning, develop a comprehensive road network, harness technology to maximise network capacity, demand management, improvement of public transport.

MIRT - Multi-year Programme for Infrastructure and Transport NLD

Enhance competitiveness on transportation systems, strength spatial and economic infrastructure, safeguard the quality of the living environment, reliable and predictable door to door accessibility.

NLTP - Regional Land Transport Programme 2012-2030 NZL

Support economic development, encourage safety and personal security, improve accessibility and mobility, protect and promote public health, ensure environmental sustainability.

NNTP - National Transport Plan 2010-2019

NOR

Improve traffic flow and reduce time of travel, establish a vision of zero accidents in the transport sector, contribute to limiting environmental impacts, optimize design of transport systems.

FTIP - Federal Transport Infrastructure Plan 2015-2030

DEU

Ensure sustainable mobility, improve safety for transport users, create fair conditions of competition for all transport modes, reduce noise, air pollutants and climate change rates, support European integration.

NPTS - National Plan for Transport System 2010-2021 SWE

Design sustainable transport systems, induce to high quality transport, maintain environment, promote positive regional development, consider citizens and businesses expectations, ensure safety and security

Table 1: Synthesis of National Transport Strategies across Developed Countries (Atkins et. al, 2006)

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The National Strategic Mobility and Transport Plan 2013-2037 is the baseline for the development of an

integrated transport system whose total contribution to the economy should be more than the sum of its

individual parts. Nonetheless, this national strategy still requires to be enhanced for being considered as a

national standard framework for future planning and economic development bearing in mind spatial planning

and resilient infrastructure aspects. In furtherance of being internationally competitive, Table 1 shown others

global policy strategies that could be considered by the Ecuadorian Government for strengthening its national

decisions on land-use and transport planning, even more if the total budget assigned to achieve its package of

107 soft and hard measures exceeds $118.4 billion (circa £75.3 billion).

3.3. Improving standards of safety and security for passengers and freight transportation services

Safety and security on public transport is important for existing users and encouraging more people to embrace

a sustainable mobility vision. Road safety cannot be overlooked in the world, especially in the country. Nearly

1.3 million people die each year and another 20 to 50 million are injured as a result of a road traffic collision

(WHO, 2013). Ecuador is the second nation with more traffic accidents in Latin America, achieving from 1994 to

2013 a daily average rate of accidents for about 53 crashes and 33 victims during these disasters. Conversely,

Figure 6 shows how the global road accident trends of developed countries since 1970 to the present in contrast

to the Ecuadorian statistics have an inverse relationship, being the most affected victims in this fatalities

pedestrians and other susceptible road users. In light of these disturbing facts, the National Agency for Transit

(ANT) established the “National Road Safety Plan 2013-2020)” in order to implement road safety policies,

enhance its post-crash response capacity, decrease traffic deaths and their consequences to the local economy.

Additionally, concerns in public transport are more significant for those whose mobility is restricted, such as

older or disabled people, or those with young children. Recent researches have found that disabled people are

50% less likely on any given day to travel than those who are able bodied. It also confirmed that many disabled

adults in Ecuador have difficulty travelling and that the considerable majority of disabled adults would like to

travel more than they currently do (INEC, 2014).

4. Soft and hard planning measures for transportation in Ecuador

Since 2007, the Ecuadorian Government have been implementing several strategies with the aim of promoting

economic growth and public health in its population as well as interconnect dissimilar provinces through high-

capacity motorways and bridges. Policy instruments as regulatory and planning reforms, traffic calming

solutions, roadway traffic controls, walking and cycling enhancements, BRT systems, trolleybuses, scrappage

schemes and several subsidies have been applied in its main cities. However, Table 2 reveals a well-structured

proposal of sustainable soft and hard measures that could be adopted in order to face the current challenges

inside the country.

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Transport Policy Measures Benefits of Implementation around the World Impacts on Constraints for Implementation in Ecuador

Economic Physical Demograph Enviroment Expertise Political Social Overall

Travel Feedback Programs (TFPs): Channels for personalized communication with the aim to change travel behaviour from car use to non-auto transport (such as public transport, bicycles, or walking). (Fuji and Tanoguchi, 2005)

* In Japan, CO2 emissions reduction by about 19%, and car use by about 12%, and growth the use of public transport by about 50%. (Fujii et.al, 2006) * In UK, commuter car driving reduction between 10-30%. Typical cost to the local authority for promoting workplace travel plans was £2-4 per affected employee per year. (Cairns et. al., 2008). * In Australia, distance travelled by car reduced by 14% and strong increases in use of public transport by about 21% as well as in walking and cycling. (Brög et.al, 2009)

2 3 4 1 1 2 3 Low

Congestion Pricing: Encompasses a set of strategies and techniques aimed at developing charges that will effectively discourage motorists from entering a congested area during certain periods of high traffic congestion (Rivasplata, 2013).

* In Singapore, initial drop in traffic volume along monitored expressways dropped by 41% from 12.400 to 7.300 vehicles while public transportation travel speed increased by 16%. (Goh, 2002) * In UK, congestion in London decreased by 30%, overall traffic levels within the charging zone fell by 16%, speeds for car travel rose by 20% and bus travel became more reliable. (Santos, 2003) * In Sweden, traffic congestion in Stockholm was reduced by 25%, traffic queuing times fell by up to 50% and pollution levels in the city fell by between 10% and 15% (IBM, 2007)

4 3 2 1 3 3 4 Moderate

Carpooling/Ridesharing: Provides affordable, short-term motor vehicle rentala in residential areas as an alternative to private ownership. This system tends to significantly reduce annual vehicle mileage by participants (Litman, 2008)

* Number of vehicles replaced per carsharing vehicle: Europe (4-10) and North America (6-23) (Coheen and Shaheen, 2006) * Users which sold private vehicles after joining carsharing schemes: Europe (16-34%) and North America (11-23%) (Jung, 2014) * Participants who postponed or avoided a vehicle purchase due to carsharing: Europe (23-26%) and North America (12-68%) (Jung. 2014) * Vehicle kilometres reduced due to carsharing: Europe 28-45% and North America (8-80%) (Coheen and Shaheen, 2006)

2 2 3 1 2 2 3 Low

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Teleworking/Telecommuting: Where employers encourage employees to adopt a range of remote working practices, including working at home or in a closer location than their main workplace, for some or all of the time. (Cairns et.al, 2004)

* In Netherlands, 19% reduction in car driver trips and mileage. Bigger reductions in peak hour travel. Other household members reduced trips by 9%. (Hamer et.al, 1991) * In USA, almost 24,000 Sun Microsystems employees work away from the office 1-2 days per week. In 2007 its teleworking program prevented the release of 32,000 metric tons of CO2 (Siemens, 2009) * In Japan, 44.2% of teleworkers improved their productivity as the most significant effect of teleworking followed by relief from fatigue and stress of commuting with 32.2%. (Higa, et.al 1998)

3 2 3 2 2 2 3 Low

Smarth Growth Policies: Includes incentives that concentrate residential and commercial development in areas with accessible land use and alternative transport modes. Reduce car ownership, and provide transport cost saving to consumers. (Litman, 2008)

* In Canada, essentially in Toronto, savings in transportation and operating cost ranging from 18-29% if the region is able to move toward more compact growth patterns. (Franchuk, 2012) * In UK, through Darlington, Peterborough and Worcester were observed that walking and cycle trips per resident increased by 13% and 26% respectively across the towns. (DfT, 2011) * In USA, mainly in Chicago, this policy with respect to climate change shown a potential reduction of transport-related CO2 from current trends by 7 to 10% by 2050 (NRDC, 2010)

4 4 3 2 2 2 2 Moderate

Pay-As-You-Drive Insurance: Means that vehicles insurance or other fees are based directly on how much it the vehicle is driven. For each kilometre, the statistical risk of accident is calculated and translated to personalized insurance fees (Troncoso et.al, 2007)

* In Canada, pricing average motorists are expected to reduce their annual mileage, crashes and insurance costs by about 10%, providing about $100 annual savings. (Litman, 2011). * In USA, if it is broadly applied, traffic crashes should decline proportionately more than mileage, so for example, a 10% mileage reduction reduces crashes 12-15% (Edlin and Mandic 2006). * In Netherlands, total crash reduction is estimated to be more than 5% with the scheme, resulting in a reduction of 60 fatalities and over a 1.000 injured by traffic. (Zantema, et. al, 2008)

4 3 3 4 3 3 5 High

Public Transport Information and Marketing: Encompasses improvements to public transport infrastructure and services as well as information and marketing regarding timetables, campaigns and simplified ticket schemes. (Cairns et.al, 2004)

* In UK, this program had recorded increases in bus use of about 1-5% when is combined with the deployment of other soft trasport policy. (Cairns et al., 2008) * In Australia, where a 23% increase in rail service frequencies led to about a 30% patronage increase and a 7% annual return on a $580,000 investment. (Manners, 2000) * In South Africa, the bus market share rose from 6% to 7% of all roundtrips, and the absolute number of bus trips in the area by 17% (Clark and Crous, 1999)

2 2 1 1 1 2 2 Low

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5. Conclusions

Based on the evidence assembled and researched from Ecuador and other national transport strategies around

the world, it’s compulsory to promote that local authorities by each province in Ecuador must work together

with neighbouring authorities, transport providers and other stakeholders to develop long-term strategies for

resolving the key challenges described in the context of this essay, supporting sustainable development in all its

strategic areas, including mobility and accessibility facilities for the main cities and the investment required to

support these initiatives for the growth of the major generators of travel demand in their respective areas.

Additionally, in each Ecuadorian province, city and parish it will be important to analyse carefully the potential

impacts of the proposed package of soft and hard measures for the transport system and to compare future

system scenarios with and without its deployment. A major step in this analysis will be to accurately estimate

the general costs and benefits of specific mobility schemes, for example, in reducing traffic congestion,

improving air quality and reducing the number of traffic injuries and deaths. Clearly, this should be an area of

further study, as a reliable estimation of risk and impacts associated might help transport planners across the

country to adopt them more straightforwardly.

Number of words: 3999

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