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Friday, March 30, 2012
Taimoor Gondal Diplomat
Join Date: Jul 2010Location: Mandi BahauddinPosts: 1,757Thanks: 1,623Thanked 2,062 Times in 1,053 Posts
Current Affairs Notes
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, was established on 8 August 1967 in Bangkok,Thailand, with the signing of the ASEAN Declaration (Bangkok Declaration) by the Founding Fathers ofASEAN, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand.Brunei Darussalam then joined on 7 January 1984, Viet Nam on 28 July 1995, Lao PDR and Myanmar on23 July 1997, and Cambodia on 30 April 1999, making up what is today the ten Member States of ASEAN.ASEAN covers an area of 4.46 million km, 3% of the total land area of Earth, with a population ofapproximately 600 million people, 8.8% of the world population. In 2010, its combined nominal GDP hadgrown to US$1.8 trillion. If ASEAN was a single entity, it would rank as the ninth largest economy in theworld.
AIMS AND PURPOSES
As set out in the ASEAN Declaration, the aims and purposes of ASEAN are:1. To accelerate the economic growth, social progress and cultural development in the region throughjoint endeavours in the spirit of equality and partnership in order to strengthen the foundation for aprosperous and peaceful community of Southeast Asian Nations;2. To promote regional peace and stability through abiding respect for justice and the rule of law in therelationship among countries of the region and adherence to the principles of the United Nations Charter;
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3. To promote active collaboration and mutual assistance on matters of common interest in the economic,social, cultural, technical, scientific and administrative fields;4. To provide assistance to each other in the form of training and research facilities in the educational,professional, technical and administrative spheres;5. To collaborate more effectively for the greater utilisation of their agriculture and industries, theexpansion of their trade, including the study of the problems of international commodity trade, theimprovement of their transportation and communications facilities and the raising of the living standardsof their peoples;6. To promote Southeast Asian studies; and7. To maintain close and beneficial cooperation with existing international and regional organisations withsimilar aims and purposes, and explore all avenues for even closer cooperation among themselves.
In their relations with one another, the ASEAN Member States have adopted the following fundamentalprinciples, as contained in the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC) of 1976:1. Mutual respect for the independence, sovereignty, equality, territorial integrity, and national identity ofall nations;2. The right of every State to lead its national existence free from external interference, subversion orcoercion;3. Non-interference in the internal affairs of one another;4. Settlement of differences or disputes by peaceful manner;5. Renunciation of the threat or use of force; and6. Effective cooperation among themselves.
The ASEAN Vision 2020, adopted by the ASEAN Leaders on the 30th Anniversary of ASEAN, agreed on ashared vision of ASEAN as a concert of Southeast Asian nations, outward looking, living in peace, stabilityand prosperity, bonded together in partnership in dynamic development and in a community of caringsocieties.At the 9th ASEAN Summit in 2003, the ASEAN Leaders resolved that an ASEAN Community shall beestablished.At the 12th ASEAN Summit in January 2007, the Leaders affirmed their strong commitment to acceleratethe establishment of an ASEAN Community by 2015 and signed the Cebu Declaration on the Accelerationof the Establishment of an ASEAN Community by 2015.The ASEAN Community is comprised of three pillars, namely the ASEAN Political-Security Community,ASEAN Economic Community and ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community. Each pillar has its own Blueprint,and, together with the Initiative for ASEAN Integration (IAI) Strategic Framework and IAI Work PlanPhase II (2009-2015), they form the Roadmap for and ASEAN Community 2009-2015.
The ASEAN Charter serves as a firm foundation in achieving the ASEAN Community by providing legalstatus and institutional framework for ASEAN. It also codifies ASEAN norms, rules and values; sets cleartargets for ASEAN; and presents accountability and compliance.The ASEAN Charter entered into force on 15 December 2008. A gathering of the ASEAN Foreign Ministerswas held at the ASEAN Secretariat in Jakarta to mark this very historic occasion for ASEAN.With the entry into force of the ASEAN Charter, ASEAN will henceforth operate under a new legalframework and establish a number of new organs to boost its community-building process.In effect, the ASEAN Charter has become a legally binding agreement among the 10 ASEAN MemberStates.
Enlargement of ASEAN:-
During the 1990s, the bloc experienced an increase in both membership and drive for further integration.In 1990, Malaysia proposed the creation of an East Asia Economic Caucus comprising the then members ofASEAN as well as the People's Republic of China, Japan, and South Korea, with the intention ofcounterbalancing the growing influence of the United States in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation(APEC) and in the Asian region as a whole. This proposal failed, however, because of heavy opposition
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from the United States and Japan. Despite this failure, member states continued to work for furtherintegration and ASEAN Plus Three was created in 1997.In 1992, the Common Effective Preferential Tariff (CEPT) scheme was signed as a schedule for phasingtariffs and as a goal to increase the regions competitive advantage as a production base geared for theworld market. This law would act as the framework for the ASEAN Free Trade Area. After the East AsianFinancial Crisis of 1997, a revival of the Malaysian proposal was established in Chiang Mai, known as theChiang Mai Initiative, which calls for better integration between the economies of ASEAN as well as theASEAN Plus Three countries (China, Japan, and South Korea).Aside from improving each member state's economies, the bloc also focused on peace and stability in theregion. On 15 December 1995, the Southeast Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty was signed withthe intention of turning Southeast Asia into a Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone. The treaty took effect on 28March 1997 after all but one of the member states have ratified it. It became fully effective on 21 June2001, after the Philippines ratified it, effectively banning all nuclear weapons in the region.Early 2011, East Timor plans to submit a letter of application to the ASEAN Secretariat in Indonesia to bethe eleventh member of ASEAN at the summit in Jakarta. Indonesia has shown a warm welcome to EastTimor.[/SIZE]
__________________Success is never achieved by the size of our brain but it is always achieved by the quality of our thoughts.
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Friday, March 30, 2012
Taimoor Gondal Diplomat
Join Date: Jul 2010Location: Mandi BahauddinPosts: 1,757Thanks: 1,623Thanked 2,062 Times in 1,053 Posts
The Government of Pakistan over Baluchistan, the country's largest province. Recently,separatists have also clashed with Islamic Republic of Iran over its respective Balochregion, which borders Pakistan. Shortly after Pakistan's creation in 1947, the Army of theIslamic Republic had to subdue insurgents based in Kalat who rejected the King of Kalatdecision to accede to Pakistan, reminiscent of the Indian Army's operation in thePrincipality state of Hyderabad. The movement gained momentum during the 1960s, andamid consistent political disorder, the government ordered a military operation into theregion in 1973, assisted by Iran, and inflicted heavy casualties on the separatists. Themovement was largely quelled after the imposition of martial law in 1977, after whichBaluchistan witnessed significant development. After insurgency groups againmushroomed in the 1990s and 2000s, the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan and the war inNorth-West Pakistan exacerbated the conflict, most recently manifested in the killings of
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non-Baloch settlers in the province by separatists since 2006.
1. First conflict 1948 (led by Prince Abdul Karim Khan)
In April 1948, Baloch nationalists claim that the central government sent the Pakistanarmy, which allegedly forced Mir Ahmed Yar Khan to give up his state, Kalat. Kalat was alandlocked British protectorate that comprised roughly 22%23% of Baluchistan. MirAhmed Yar Khan signed an accession agreement ending Kalat's de facto independence.His brother, Prince Abdul Karim Khan, was a powerful governor of a section of Kalat, aposition that he was removed from after accession. He decided to initiate an insurgencyagainst Pakistan. On the night of May 16, 1948 Prince Abdul Karim Khan initiated aseparatist movement against the Pakistani government. He conducted guerrilla warfarebased in Afghanistan against the Pakistan army.
2. Second conflict 195859 (led by Nawab Nowroz Khan)
Nawab Nowroz Khan took up arms in resistance to the One Unit policy, which decreasedgovernment represenation for tribal leaders. He and his followers started a guerrilla waragainst Pakistan. Nowroz Khan and his followers were charged with treason and arrestedand confined in Hyderabad jail. Five of his family members (sons and nephews) weresubsequently hanged under charges of aiding murder of Pakistani troops and treason.Nawab Nowroz Khan later died in captivity.
3. Third conflict 196369 (led by Nawab Khair Baksh Marri)
After the second conflict, the Federal government sent the Army to build new militarybases in the key conflict areas of Baluchistan in order to resist further chaos. Nawab KhairBaksh marri appointed an unknow shero marri to lead like-minded militants in guerrillawarfare by creating their own insurgent bases spread out over 45,000 miles (72,000 km)of land, from the Mengal tribal area in the south to the Marri and Bugti tribal areas in thenorth. Their goal was to force Pakistan to share revenue generated from the Sui gas fieldswith the tribal leaders. The insurgents bombed railway tracks and ambushed convoys.The Army retaliated by destroying vast areas of the Marri tribe's land. This insurgencyended in 1969 and the Baloch separatists agreed to a ceasefire. Yahya Khan abolished the"One Unit" policy. This eventually led to the recognition of Baluchistan as the fourthprovince of West Pakistan (present-day Pakistan) in 1970, containing all the Baluchistaniprincely states, the High Commissioners Province and Gwadar, an 800 km2 coastal areapurchased by the Pakistani Government from Oman.
4. Fourth conflict 197377 (led by Nawab Khair Baksh Marri)
Citing treason, President Bhutto dismissed the provincial governments of Baluchistan andNWFP and imposed martial law in those provinces. Dismissal of the provincialgovernments led to armed insurgency. Khair Bakhsh Marri formed the BaluchistanPeoples Liberation Front (BPLF), which led large numbers of Marri and Mengal tribesmeninto guerrilla warfare against the central government. According to some authors, thePakistani military lost 300 to 400 soldiers during the conflict with the Balochi separatists,while between 7,300 and 9,000 Balochi militants and civilians were killed.
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5. Fifth conflict 2004 to date (led by Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti and Mir BalachMarri)
In 2005, the Baluch political leaders Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti and Mir Balach Marripresented a 15-point agenda to the Pakistan government. Their stated demands includedgreater control of the province's resources and a Moratorium on the construction ofmilitary bases. On 15 December 2005, Inspector-General of Frontier Corps Maj GenShujaat Zamir Dar and his deputy Brig Salim Nawaz (the current IGFC) were woundedafter shots were fired at their helicopter in Baluchistan province. The provincial interiorsecretary later said that "both of them were wounded in the leg but both are in stablecondition." The two men had been visiting Kohlu, about 220 km (135 miles) south-east ofQuetta, when their aircraft came under fire. The helicopter landed safely.In August 2006, Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti, 79 years old, was killed in fighting with thePakistan Army in which at least 60 Pakistani soldiers and 7 officers were killed. He wascharged by Pakistan's government of a series of bomb blasts, killings of the people heprofessed to protect and the rocket attack on the President Pervez Musharraf.In April 2009, Baloch National Movement president Ghulam Mohammed Baloch and twoother nationalist leaders (Lala Munir and Sher Muhammad), were seized from a small legaloffice and were allegedly "handcuffed, blindfolded and hustled into a waiting pickup truckwhich is in still use of intelligence forces in front of their lawyer and neighboringshopkeepers."The gunmen were allegedly speaking in Persian (a national language ofneighboring Afghanistan and Iran) Five days later on April 8 their bodies, "riddled withbullets" were found in a commercial area.The BLA claims Pakistani forces were behind thekillings, though international experts have deemed it odd that the Pakistani forces wouldbe careless enough to allow the bodies to be found so easily and 'light Baluchistan on fire'(Herald) if they were truly responsible. The discovery of the bodies sparked rioting andweeks of strikes, demonstrations and civil resistance" in cities and towns aroundBaluchistan.On August 12, 2009, Khan of Kalat Mir Suleiman Dawood declared himself ruler ofBaluchistan and formally made announcement of a Council for Independent Baluchistan.The Council's claimed domain includes "Baloch of Iran", as well as Pakistani Baluchistan,but does not include Afghani Baloch regions,and the Council contains "all separatistleaders including Nawabzada Bramdagh Bugti." He claims that "the UK had a moralresponsibility to raise the issue of Baluchistans illegal occupation at international level."
Alleged Foreign Support for Baluch rebels
Pakistan has repeatedly accused India, and occasionally the U.S., of supporting theBaluch rebels in order to destabilize the country. India has however categorically deniedthe allegations on its part, stating that no concrete evidence has been provided. The factsare controversial, but Pakistan still continues to insist. Iran has repeatedly accusedAmerica of supporting Jundullah. After his capture, Jundullah leader Abdulmalek Rigiconfirmed these allegations. The US has however denied this. However, neutral observershave repeatedly noted that the Baloch nationalist groups are poorly-trained in militarytactics and strategy, and are currently outgunned by the Pakistani state. The groups aremainly armed with small non-automatic weapons and AK-47s, which are widely availablein Pakistan, and they currently are not skilled at using Improvised Explosive Devices(IEDs), which is seen as strong circumstantial evidence that they are not supported byoutside powers, contrary to the repeated statements of the Pakistani state.Baluchi rebels in Pakistan are said to receive major support from the Taliban inAfghanistan. In the 1980s the CIA, the Iraqi Intelligence Service, Pakistani Sunni extremistgroup Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan and the Mujahedin e-Kalq all supported a Baluchi tribal
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uprising against Iran. Pakistan has also accused India of giving citizenship to seniorBalouch SeparatistSelig S. Harrison of the George Soros funded Center for InternationalPolicy has been calling for dividing Pakistan and supporting an independent Baluchprovince as a means to thwart growing relations between Islamabad and Beijing, asPakistan has given China a base at Gwadar. These views have been separately promotedby Ralph Peters, an zionist strategic affairs analyst and former U.S. Army officer, and anexpert on the Middle East and the Islamic world.
Saindak Copper Gold Project:
Saindak Copper-Gold Mine is located in Saindak town, district Chaghi Baluchistan,Pakistan. The discovery of copper deposits at Saindak was made in the 1970s incollaboration with a Chinese engineering firm. The Saindak Copper-Gold Project was setup by Saindak Metals Ltd, a company wholly owned by the government of Pakistan, bythe end of 1995 at a cost of Rs.13.5 billion.Pakistan and China signed a formal contract worth $350 million for development ofSaindak Copper-Gold Project. The project was leased for 10 year to a Chinese companycalled Metallurgical Construction Corp (MCC), which is due to expire in September 2012.Under the lease agreement, MCC was to run the project on an annual rent of $500,000plus a 50 per cent share of copper sales to the Pakistani government.The project was based on estimated ore reserves of 412 million tonnes containing onaverage 0.5 gram of gold per ton and 1.5 grams of silver per ton. According to officialestimates, the project has the capacity to produce 15,800 ton of blister copper annually,containing 1.5 ton of gold and 2.8 ton of silver.
Reko Diq Copper Gold Project:-
Reko Diq is a small town in Chagai District, Baluchistan, Pakistan, in a desert area, 70kilometres north-west of Naukundi, close to Pakistan's border with Iran and Afghanistan.The area is located in Tethyan belt that stretches all the way from Turkey and Armeniainto Pakistan.Reko Diq has proven gold and copper reserves worth US $125 billion. It is estimated thatarea has 12.3 million tons of world class copper and 20.9 million ounces of gold.However, later it has been claimed by several Pakistani scholars that the gold and copperreserves worth is far more than estimated earlier, that is 1000 billion dollars.The Reko Diq Mining Project is a US$ 3.3 billion capital investment project that promisesto build and operate a world class copper-gold open-pit mine at Reko Diq. TCC (TethyanCopper Company), which is actually Canadian-Chilian based company, is responsible forminning at Reko Diq.
Gawadar Port is a developing warm-water, deep-sea port situated at Gwadar inBaluchistan province of Pakistan at the apex of the Arabian Sea and at the entrance of thePersian Gulf, about 460 km west of Karachi and approximately 75 km (47 mi) east ofPakistan's border with Iran. The port is located on the eastern bay of a naturalhammerhead-shaped peninsula jutting out into the Arabian Sea from the coastline.
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On 8 September 1958, Pakistan purchased the Gwadar enclave from Oman for $3 million.Gwadar officially became part of Pakistan on 8 December 1958. At the time, Gwadar wasa small and underdeveloped fishing village with a population of a few thousand.The Pakistani government integrated Gwadar into Baluchistan province on 1 July 1977 asthe district headquarters of the newly formed Gwadar District.In the 1993, the Government of Pakistan formally conceived the plan to develop Gwadarinto a major port city with a deep-sea port and connect it with Pakistan's highway and railnetworks. On 22 March 2002, the Government of Pakistan began construction of GwadarPort, a modern deep-sea port, the first phase of which was completed in December 2005.Gwadar Port became operational in December 2009.The city underwent major construction from 2002-07. In 2002, Pakistan's NationalHighway Authority (NHA) began construction of the 653 km-long Makran Coastal Highwaylinking Gwadar with Karachi via Pasni and Ormara and onwards with the rest of theNational Highways of Pakistan, which was completed in 2004. In 2003, the GwadarDevelopment Authority was established to oversee the planning and development ofGwadar. In 2004, Pakistan's NHA began construction of the 820-km long M8 motorwaylinking Gwadar with Ratodero in Sindh province via Turbat, Hoshab, Awaran and Khuzdarand onwards with the rest of the Motorways of Pakistan. In 2006, the GwadarDevelopment Authority conceived, developed and adopted a 50-year Master Plan forGwadar. In 2007, the Civil Aviation Authority of Pakistan acquired 4,300 acres toconstruct a new greenfield airport, the New Gwadar International Airport, on 6,000 acres,at an estimated cost of Rs. 7.5 billion. China has funded 80% of the initial $248 millionconstruction of the city.However China has not announced being requested to operate theport by Pakistan.
Importance of Gawadar Port for China:-
Gwadar Port is being constructed in two phases with heavy investment from China.Technical and financial feasibility studies were commenced by the Government of Pakistanin 1993 but construction did not commence until 2002. The Gwadar Port was built on aturnkey basis by China. It was inaugurated in the spring of 2007 by then PakistaniPresident General Pervez Musharraf. Upon completion of the first phase, the Port ofSingapore Authority was hired for the management of the Port. Gwadar Port is now beingexpanded into a deep sea port and naval base with Chinese technical and financialassistance. Gwadar Port became operational in 2008 with the first ship to dock bringing52.000 tonnes of wheat from Canada. Pakistan's Minister of Ports and Shipping SardarNabil Ahmed Khan Gabol officially inaugurated the Port on 21 December 2008.China has acknowledged that Gwadars strategic value is no less than that of theKarakoram Highway, which helped cement the China-Pakistan relationship. Beijing is alsointerested in turning it into an energy-transport hub by building an oil pipeline fromGwadar into China's Xinjiang region. The planned pipeline will carry crude oil sourced fromArab and African states. Such transport by pipeline will cut freight costs and also helpinsulate the Chinese imports from interdiction by hostile naval forces in case of any majorwar.Commercially, it is hoped that the Gwadar Port would generate billions of dollars inrevenues and create at least two million jobs. In 2007, the government of Pakistanhanded over port operations to PSA Singapore for 25 years, and gave it the status of aTax Free Port for the following 40 years.
Missing Persons In Baluchistan:-
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The most pressing and hurtful issue right now, though, is that of the missing people.Human rights groups and Baloch political parties claim as many as 13,000 people aremissing in the province, while the provincial government acknowledges fewer than 1,000people have been picked up. Even if the true number lies somewhere in between, thesestatistics need to be reconciled. After that, a promise needs to be given that no citizen ofBaluchistan need ever fear for his life just for exercising his right to political dissent.
Target Killing in Baluchistan:-
According to Baluchistan police records, there were 256 incidents of targeting inBaluchistan in 2009 that killed 200 people and injured 387. In 2010, 231 incidents werereported that killed 255 and injured 498. In the first three months of 2011, at least 39incidents have occurred, which killed 38 and injured 66. Baluchistan ConstabularyCommandant Ghulam Shabbir Shah, speaking in Karachi recently, said that target killingsare set to break all previous records in the province.
Various shades of targets
According to Shah, no target killings are reported in the provinces Pashtun-dominatedareas, including Musakhel, Zhob, Loralai, Ziarat, Pishin, Harnai and Sibi.The claim was confirmed by Pakhtunkhwa Awami Milli Partys senior leader Abdul RahimKhan Mandokhel but, he said, Pakhtun Baloch have been targeted in two or three cases.Some unsuccessful attempts have been made to create a wedge between the Pakhtunsand Baloch, he said.Most target killing and terrorism incidents are reported in the districts of Quetta, Mastung,Bolan, Noshki, Kalat, Khuzdar, Kech, Gwadar, Lasbela and Panjgur. Four types of targetkillings are reported in Baluchistan: Attacks on people who have settled in the province,assassinations of policemen and Frontier Corps (FC) personnel, sectarian killings andmurders of political workers.
Settlers in Baluchistan are numbered at least 461,328 and mostly comprise Punjabis,Seraikis and Urdu-speaking people. According to police statistics, based on inquiry andFIRs, at least 180 settlers have been shot dead between 2009 and March 2011.Officials admit that investigations into most target killings of settlers remain unsolved.There is a joke in the province that if you want authorities to stop pursuing a murdercase, have it claimed by one of the many rebel groups operating in Baluchistan, saysNational Party Vice-President Hasil Bizenjo.One such case is that of University of Baluchistans Professor Nazima Talib whose firstdeath anniversary approaches on April 27.These cases are difficult to crack because Baloch people sympathise with rebel groupsand, despite knowing who the murderers are, choose to remain quiet, says Shah.
2. Security personnel
At least 120 policemen and 66 FC personnel have been killed between 2009 and March2011.Shah says that despite clear evidence that police have suffered more, there is a severelack of resources. It is very easy to blame civilian institutions for failing to curb crime.But the truth is we dont have the resources to even fight petty dacoits who have more
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sophisticated arms and equipment, he said. On the other hand, FC and army units evenget food rations for troops.
Sectarian killings have been mostly targeted against Hazara Shias, who came toBaluchistan decades ago from Afghanistan and Iran. Police and counter-terrorism officialssay that anti-Shia militant groups such as Sipah-i-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP) and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) are active in Baluchistan.But Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazls (JUI-F) Secretary-General Maulana Abdul GhafoorHaideri, who hails from Kalat, says he doesnt know if the SSP or LeJ are involved.Experience shows that the state and intelligence agencies are the ones behind groupsthat instigate sectarian violence and ethnic strife, he said.
Political party workers allege that they are being targeted not only by the state but byrebels as well.Bizenjo, whose party has lost three senior leaders, says the heavily-armed rebels areagainst nationalists because they say that you talk about federation when we are here upin the mountains waging a battle against the state.Baluchistan National Party-Mengals (BNP-M) Dr Jehanzaib Jamaldini says the party lostone of their best leaders Habib Jalib last year in a target killing. All evidence points tostate elements being behind the murder, he said.Hundreds of Baloch men, including political workers, have gone missing in the province.Bizenjo believes Baluchistans security situation is interconnected with Fata andAfghanistan and violence is bound to continue unless things improve there. Until it isdecided that nowhere in the country will anyone be allowed to hold a gun, the state willnot be able to establish its writ and target killings will continue, he said.Haideri says the government should either accept failure and step down or admit that it isinvolved in target killings in the province.Analysis:-It has long been an open secret that paramilitary forces and intelligence agencies havebeen holding sway in Baluchistan. This was finally acknowledged by the provincesadvocate general, Salahuddin Mengal, in front of the Supreme Court, when he revealedthat the Frontier Constabulary (FC) was picking up and even killing people. Although not asurprise, this revelation is important because the Supreme Court is the only institution inthe country that has shown the courage to take on the army. The court must now haul upsenior officers of the FC to explain the role it is playing in Baluchistan.However, the Supreme Court alone cannot solve Baluchistans problems. The utter lack ofconfidence the Baloch have in the army and the federal government requires muchgreater action. Separatist sentiment is now running deep in the province and theprovincial government lacks legitimacy because most political figures have boycottedmainstream politics. Bringing them back into the fold should be an immediate priority.This would require the army to recede and take a low profile, and an accounting of allthose who went missing in the province. Following that, a far greater share in the spoils ofBaluchistans economic development needs to be given to locals. From the developmentof a deep-sea port in Gwadar to royalties in mining projects, the Baloch feel they havebeen deliberately cheated out of profits from their resources. Only after this is rectified,will the separatist parties begin to tone down their rhetoric.__________________Success is never achieved by the size of our brain but it is always achieved by the quality of our thoughts.
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The Following 7 Users Say Thank You to Taimoor Gondal For This Useful Post:
anam047 (Friday, April 27, 2012), BALOCHISTAN (Friday, October 12, 2012), Malik Iqbal (Wednesday,July 17, 2013), paras Sulehri (Monday, July 22, 2013), pisceankhan (1 Day Ago), Rescuer 1122 (Friday,December 28, 2012), Rushna Qureshi (Saturday, October 06, 2012)
Friday, March 30, 2012
Taimoor Gondal Diplomat
Join Date: Jul 2010Location: Mandi BahauddinPosts: 1,757Thanks: 1,623Thanked 2,062 Times in 1,053 Posts
Clash of Civilizations
World Politics is entering in a new phase which will be end of history,the return oftraditional rivalries between nation states and the decline of nation state from conflictingpulls of tribalism and globalism. Fundamental conflicts would not be ideological oreconomic but cultural conflicts. Nation states would remain the most dominant andpowerful actors.Clash of civilization will dominate the global politics. With the peace ofWestphalia conflict of western world were among princes, emperors, absolute orconstitutional monarchs to expand their armies, bureaucracies, mercantilist economicstrength. In this process they created nation states beginning with French revolution. Theprinciple lines of conflict were between the nations rather princes.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, many scholars predicted that the future of worldand where nations would advance. Huntingtons idea in the clash of civilization is arepresentative case among the various views on the new world and it caused lots ofdebates about the pros and cons of his thought. In the clash of civilization, Huntingtonargues that conflicts of contemporary world (after the end of Cold War) are not ideologicalnor economical but cultural and phenomenon such as confrontations and antagonismsamong nations which are caused by clashes of different civilizations would riseremarkably. However, Said criticized that the clash of civilization is a creature of theimperative conception that the West should hold the hegemony of new world order. Thisessay, therefore, explores the theory of the clash of civilization and criticizes severalpoints which are mentioned in it.A civilization is the highest cultural grouping of people and the broadest level of culturalidentity people have short that which distinguishes human from other species. It isdefined both by common objective elements, such as language, history,and religion. Inshort, while Huntington isright to see religion as a factor in the coming era of world politics, the role of religion willgo well beyond serving as a touchstone for culture. Religion is more than culture. Ittranscends civilizations. In the end, to listen to the believers among us, it will transcendhistory itself.Harvard Professor Samuel P. Huntington caused intellectual explosion by publishing hisarticle clash of civilizations in the American journal Foreign Affairs in 1993. He assertsCivilizations are the largest aggregates that command human loyalties and account for
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much of the bloodshed in the recorded human history. Cold war marked a brief departurefrom it but now old enemies could go to the past time, waging wars against each other.The biggest threat to the west at present comes from China and Islam. He argues thatnow the cold war had ended, future conflicts in the world politics would be less betweenstates and more between civilizations or coalitions of culture.He asserts his point of view,In this emerging era of cultural conflict the United States must forge alliances with similarcultures and spread its values wherever possible. With alien civilizations the West must beaccommodating if possible, but confrontational if necessary. In the final analysis,however, all civilizations will have to learn to tolerate each other.There is now a danger of hot war of religion to succeed the cold war of ideologies, thenew trend between America and allies, on the one hand, and Muslim countries such asIraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Libya, Sudan, and Somalia, on the other hand. Both Americancapitalism and Russian Commission were born out of European culture.
Present Scenario of mistrust and bloodshed:
The 9/11 attack was termed as beginning of clash of civilizations, when Tony Blairexclaimed as,
They have attacked on our civilization.
President Bush declared war against Afghanistan as Crusades. The question ariseswhether the significance of September 11, 2001, the attacks on the US, the devastation ofAfghanistan, the Israeli onslaught on the Palestinians homeland and Lebanon, the plans todivide Iraq and invade Iran Somalia, and Sudan, all add up to an unfolding conflictbetween the United States and its closet allies (Israel and UK) on the one hand, and moreand more Muslim countries, on the other hand.
The tumult caused by the publication of the caricature of the Holy Prophet in theNorwegian Newspaper. The growing phenomenon of linking fundamentalism to extremismand extremism to Islam and Islam to terrorism sent a shocking wave to EnlightenedMuslims.Clear discrimination against members of the Muslim community in Switzerland.NoFrench citizenship for burka-clad womens husband.
American Gulliver of the globe. Economic globalization under American influence. Information globalization under American influence. Comprehensive globalization under American influence. One super power and security system for the globe. First among unequal: US is so far ahead of its nearest military rival, Russia; its nearesteconomic rival, Japan/china its technological rival Germany.
Why Civilizations will Clash?
The conflict of future will occur along the cultural fault lines separating civilization.
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(1).Differences among civilization are basic.(2)World is becoming a small place.(3)Process of Economic modernization and social change.(4)Growth of civilization is enhanced by the dual role of the west.(5)Cultural differences are less easily compromised and resolved than political andeconomic ones.(6)Economic nationalism is increasing Clash of civilization has two levels(a)Micro Level(b)Macro Level
Hidden Objectives under this Theory:
A clash of culture did occur when President Bush used to Taliban, the Language ofultimatum over surrendering us Usama, just hand over Usama Bin Laden and his thugs.There is nothing to talk about. It shows he was trying to get the Taliban to say NO, sothat Bush could embark on his long awaited military action to capture Afghanistan.The threat of weapons of mass destruction from North Korea is more real than that ofIraq, but till now 6,00,000 Iraqis have been butchered with their President hanged.
For Greater Israel Hezbollah, Iran and Syria are on the hit list as their culture of Violencein the words of Bush. Put future threats to the security of America.
Pluralistic Dimensions of Islamic Civilization:
Islam was not spread by sword, as misinterpreted by Pope, the living evidence is ArabLand itself where millions of Christian and the Jews are practicing their faith with completeliberty. Ruthless killing of innocent citizens committed by Napolean, Chengiz khan andobserved in the world wars are much greater than by Saddam or any other MuslimDespot.
In the Muslim world, the women are awarded more dignity than in the west, far lessprostitution than in the west, no beauty competitions. Sons in the Muslim world respecttheir mothers more than sons in the west. There was ethnic cleansing which displacedthousands of Palestinians to make room for the Jews. An ideology was formed in whichsome one from the Ukraine who claims to have had a Jewish ancestors two thousandsyears ago had more rights under Israels Law of Return than Palestinian who ran awayfrom Israeli borders in 1948.
The Role of Religion in Huntingtons paradigm
The role of religion is a problem in Huntingtons paradigm. As noted, in sorting the worldalong civilizational lines, he assigns religion a preeminemt place. More than any otherfactor, according to Huntington, religious affiliation signifies "who we are" and "who weare not." It identifies kin and marks prospective rivals. Yet implicit in Huntingtonsargument is the notion that religion in its own right is without standing. Religionilluminates politics, but should play no independent role in politics. (It is a safe bet thatwhen Huntington calls for the revival of Western civilization he is not advocatingrestoration of One Holy Roman Catholic and Apostolic Church exercising authority oversecular affairs.) For Huntington, religionparticularly religion in the Westis ananachronism, something that was itself once alive and powerful but that now surviveslargely as artifact or memento. Yet in thus consigning religion to role of cultural ID card,Huntington misconstrues its significance, both politically and otherwise.
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Intellectual and collective effort
The present ongoing clash is not a physical phenomenon and does no require use offorce, which has proved a big failure, even after using Hi-Tech weapons. Rather itdemands intellectual and collective effort by all responsible scholars, Heads of States,Soldiers and Politicians.
Inter faith dialogue
Inter faith dialogue to create harmony because Islam gives high esteem to all otherreligions of book and their prophets.
True Muslim scholars
True Muslim scholars in collaboration with other Priests, can hold joint Seminars togenerate harmony and shed clouds of ignorance and prejudice.
The world body UN should fear the dreadful end of League of Nations, so it needs vitalityand firmness to implement its fair decisions, irrespective US influence which has dividedthe world.
Media power can be used for bridging the gulf among biased nations and cultures.
Education system is a basic tool in polishing individuals with qualities of compassion andHumanism.__________________Success is never achieved by the size of our brain but it is always achieved by the quality of our thoughts.
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Saturday, March 31, 2012
Taimoor Gondal Diplomat
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Drone Attacks, FATA and Haqqani Network
The use of Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs), commonly known as drones, is a newtechnology used in modern warfare. An unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), also known as aUnmanned aircraft System (UAS) or a remotely piloted aircraft (RPA) or unmannedaircraft functions either by the remote control of a navigator or pilot (called a CombatSystems Officer on UCAVs) or autonomously, that is, as a self-directing entity. Theirlargest use is within military applications.In the current so-called War on Terror, the same has been frequently used by the UnitedStates in Pakistan and Afghanistan. A lot has been said against American drone attacks asa violation of sovereignty of Pakistan but the issue is getting more intense by eachpassing day. When the US drones attack Pakistans tribal areas, it is not just the ten,twenty or fifty innocent civilians they kill but it creates the anti-US sentiments in massesand a global feeling of disgust against US. Few stay mum and numb but there is largenumber of victims who vent their hatred very violently against US and its ally Pakistan. USis insensitive to the fact that civilian killings in these drone attacks provides reason to theyoungsters for joining terrorist groups waging war against US and of course Pakistan, forbeing its closest ally in war on terror.The drone strikes have pushed militants deeper into Pakistan and gave them an excuse tostrike the heart of the country, further destabilizing it. No doubt drone attacks did killsome militants but at what cost???To further probe into this aspect, this presentation will look into functioning of drones,negative and positive aspects in pertinent to our country vis--vis drawing someconclusions.
To distinguish UAVs from missiles, a UAV is defined as a "powered, aerial vehicle thatdoes not carry a human operator, uses aerodynamic forces to provide vehicle lift, can flyautonomously or be piloted remotely, can be expendable or recoverable, and can carry alethal or nonlethal payload". Therefore, cruise missiles are not considered UAVs, because,like many other guided missiles, the vehicle itself is a weapon that is not reused, eventhough it is also unmanned and in some cases remotely guided.
US, Pakistan, Tribals & UNs Point of View on Drone Attacks
1. US Point of View
a. Self defensei. Preemptive Strategy. Bill was passed by congress in 2002 under Bush administrationto carry out attacks in preemption and self defense of its citizen and state in pursuance toSeptember 11 attacks on twin tower.ii. International Protocol on Hot Pursuitb. Symmetric decimation of Al-Qaeda leadershipc. Use of highly sophisticated technologyd. Escalation of attacks under President Obama
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e. Opposition within US
2. Pakistans Point of view
a. Officialb. Response of opposition parties, civil society and mediac. Wiki leaksd. Pakistan military official papers
3. United Nations Point of View
On 27 October 2010 UNHRC investigator Philip Alston called on the US to demonstratethat it was not randomly killing people in violation of international law through its use ofdrones on the Afghan border. Alston criticized the US's refusal to respond to date to theUN's concerns. Said Alston, "Otherwise you have the really problematic bottom line, whichis that the Central Intelligence Agency is running a program that is killing significantnumbers of people and there is absolutely no accountability in terms of the relevantinternational laws."Alston, however, acknowledged that the drone attacks may be justified under the right toself-defense. He called on the US to be more open about the program. Alston's report wassubmitted to the United Nations Commission on Human Rights the following dayThe US representative at UNHRC has argued that the UN investigator for extrajudicial,summary or arbitrary executions does not have jurisdiction over US military actions
4. Opinion of FATA Locals
The New America Foundation and Terror Free Tomorrow have conducted the firstcomprehensive public opinion survey covering sensitive political issues in the FederallyAdministered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan. The unprecedented survey, from June 30 toJuly 20, 2010, consisted of face-to-face interviews of 1,000 FATA residents age 18 orolder across 120 villages/sampling points in all seven tribal Agencies of FATA, with amargin of error of +/- 3 percent, and field work by the locally-based Community Appraisal& Motivation Programme.More than three-quarters of FATA residents oppose American drone strikes. Indeed, only16 percent think these strikes accurately target militants; 45 percent think they largely killcivilians and another 39 percent feel they kill both civilians and militants.
Statistical Data of Drone Attacks in Pakistan
The US ramped up the number of strikes in July 2008, and has continued to regularly hitat Taliban and Al Qaeda targets inside Pakistan. There have been 264 strikes total sincethe program began in 2004. From 2000-2005 there were only one drone strike eachyear,3 in 2006, 5 in 2007, 35 in 2008, 53 in 2009, 117 in 2010 and 49 ,so far, in 2011.Of the 264 strikes since 2004, 182 have hit targets in North Waziristan, and 67 have hittargets in South Waziristan, Khyber agency=5, Kurram=4, Bannu=3, Bajaur=3,Orakzai=1.Since 2006, there have been 2,080 leaders and operatives from Taliban, Al Qaeda, andallied extremist groups killed and138 civilians killed.The majority of the attacks have taken place in the tribal areas administered by fourpowerful Taliban groups: the Mehsuds, Mullah Nazir, Hafiz Gul Bahadar, and theHaqqanis. In 2010, there was a dramatic shift in strikes to tribal areas administered byHafiz Gul Bahadar.
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The Pakistani government considers Nazir, the Haqqanis, Bahadar, and Hekmatyar to be'good Taliban' as they do not carry out attacks against the Pakistani state. All of theseTaliban factions shelter al Qaeda and various other terror groups.
1. Technological Advancement
As revolution in military affairs, UAVs offer the possibility of cheaper, more capablefighting aircrafts that could be used for multipurpose tasking without a life risk toaircrews.
2. Tactical advantage
The drones program is effective in terms of getting terrorist operatives in places wherethere's limited reach or no accessibility.
3. Accuracy and Precision
Due to built in sensors and laser guided munitions the predator strikes are accurate andprecise in causing devastating effects to the desired target.4. With the help of precision strikes predator strikes have successfully killed top militantcommanders and Al-Qaida operatives like Nek Muhammad, Baitullah Mahsud, IlyasKashmiri etc.5. No life loss to crew as the predator is operated without a pilot6. Surveillance capability and updation of information of intelligence value.
1. Sovereignty and Integrity
Compromising sovereignty and integrity as no international law permits aggression anduse of force against another sovereign nation.
2. Breeding suicide bombers/terrorist
US has become insensitive to the fact that carrying of drone strikes is in turn giving areason to the youngsters of the affected areas to join militant groups and continueundertaking terror activities and suicide bombings against them and Pakistan being itsally. In KPK 49.9% people (1499) have been killed due to suicide bombing, 27.7% (834)in Punjab, 17.5%(562) in FATA, and 5%(150) in other provinces.
3. Indiscriminate killing with no differentiation between friend and foe
Although International protocol regarding Hot Pursuit Operations permits haunt of terroristwith no geographical boundaries limitations however in carrying out such practice nointernational or domestic law permits killing of innocent civilians or non combatants
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4. Anti state sentiments particularly against LEAs
These drone attacks are creating a sense of resentment against the state as the tolerancelevel of effected has crossed the threshold over inability of the state to counter or curb theviolation and killings of people in tribal regions due to drones.
5. Questions legality/ Jurisdiction of court over extra judicial killings
No court of law is taking any action over such killings
6. Deteriorating image of country and terming as a terrorist breeding nation7. Strained relations with US8. Condemn by Religious parties9. Anti US Sentiments10. Poses high alert and retaliatory situation for LEAs operating in such territories.
Legal Implications/ Conclusions
Firstly, the rumors that the government of Pakistan might have signed a secret agreementwith the US is irrelevant and misleading because under the Vienna Convention onTreaties, no such treaty is valid. Moreover under Art 102 of the UN Charter, such treatieshave no legal standing.
Secondly, the drone attacks in Pakistani territory are a serious violation of theInternational Law as they are like attacking a sovereign country.No judicial Inquiry has been over extra judicial killings caused by such attacks.Thedomestic laws of both countries i.e US and Pakistan do not allow extra judicial killing inany manner whatsoever the reason may be.The United Nations charter doesnot allow any aggression or use of force against anotherstateThe International Humanitarian Law clearly differentiate between a Combatant and a noncombatant or a civilian whereas these attacks are carried out indiscriminately withouthaving any regard for the rule of lawThere might be different interpretation of the term Intervention but at least fourconsiderations are to be taken into account for determining its validity on moral and legalgrounds.a. Proportionality.b. Distinction of target.c. The agent carrying out the strikes.d. The process or manner in which targeting decisions are made.US drone attacks fall short on all above mentioned accounts. Thats the reason why NATOdoesnt openly support them and declares them as Amercian Operations. Differenthumanitarian organizations and the UN secretary General has shown their concerns overthe issue.The term used by the US Unlawful Combatants is not mentioned anywhere in theinternational Humanitarian Law (the Law of War). No inquiry has been made as to whathad been the actual targets of such attacks. The rule of law prohibits extra judicial killingsin each and every circumstances and unlike International Humanitarian Law, theInternational Human Rights Law remain intact in all kinds of situations (war or peace).Therefore, on the above grounds, drone attacks inside Pakistan territory can not bejustified on any grounds whatsoever.
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1. Operation within our territory is the responsibility of state therefore drone technologybe transferred to Pakistan for carrying out operation even in the airspace by LEAsthemselves instead of US.2. Sharing of Information between ISI & CIA to minimize collateral damage and avoidincidents of targeting own check posts/Border Outposts and a previous incident ofinnocent killings during a jirga.3. Sending strong Message by Pakistani representatives at all international forumshighlighting the issues.4. Constitution of commissions to inquire extra judicial killings and document the decreefor presentation at UNHRC and all forums for its pursuance.5. US be asked to avoid delivery of toxic/chemical munitions through hellfire missiles as itbears negative externalities by causing severe skin diseases to the nearby populace.6. Elimination of all acts which gives US a reason to carryout drones
The Haqqani Network is an independent insurgent group originating in Afghanistan that isclosely allied with the Taliban. Maulvi Jalaluddin Haqqani along with his son SirajuddinHaqqani lead the Haqqani network, which is based in the AfghanistanPakistan borderareas. According to US military commanders it is "the most resilient enemy network" andone of the biggest threats to NATO and United States forces in Afghanistan. Some notableUS officials have alleged that Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) service has beenenabling the network. Rehman Malik, Pakistan's Interior Minister, refuted the allegationsand said that Pakistan had no relations with the network and that the Central IntelligenceAgency (CIA) had "trained and produced" the Haqqani network and other mujahideenduring the Soviet war in Afghanistan. Malik's statements were contradicted by thenetwork's warnings against any US military incursions into North Waziristan and by thePakistan Army's public acknowledgement of contacts with the Haqqanis.The Haqqanis hailfrom the Zadran qaum (tribe), who are mostly based in Paktia and Khost provinces in theeast of Afghanistan.The group has been active mainly in the east of AfghanistaninPaktia, Paktika, Khost, Ghazni Wardak and even Kabul provinces.
The New York Times reported in September 2008 that Pakistan regards the Haqqani's asan important force for protecting its interests in Afghanistan in the event of Americanwithdrawal from there and therefore have been unwilling to move against them. Pakistanpresumably feels pressured that India, Russia, and Iran are gaining a foothold inAfghanistan. Since it lacks the financial clout of these other countries, Pakistan hopes thatby being a sanctuary for the Haqqani network, it can assert some influence over itsturbulent neighbour. In the words of a retired senior Pakistani official: "[We] have nomoney.All we have are the crazies. So the crazies it is." The New York Times and Al Jazeera laterreported in June 2010 that Pakistan's Army chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and chiefof the ISI General Ahmad Shuja Pasha were in talks with Afghan president Hamid Karzaito broker a power-sharing agreement between the Haqqani network and the Afghangovernment. Reacting to this report both President Barack Obama and CIA director LeonPanetta responded with skepticism that such an effort could succeed. The effort tomediate between the Haqqanis and the Afghan government was launched by Pakistanafter intense pressure by the US to take military action against the group in North
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Waziristan. Hamid Karzai later denied meeting anyone from the Haqqani network.Subsequently Kayani also denied that he took part in these talks.According to a July 2011 report published by West Point's Combating Terrorism Center,the network acts as a key facilitator of negotiations between the Pakistani governmentand the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and as the "primary conduit" of many Pakistani Talibanfighters into Afghanistan.In September 2011, Sirajuddin Haqqani claimed during a telephonic interview to Reutersthat the Haqqani network no longer maintained sanctuaries in northwest Pakistan and therobust presence that it once had there and instead now felt more safer in Afghanistan:"Gone are the days when we were hiding in the mountains along the Pakistan-Afghanistanborder. Now we consider ourselves more secure in Afghanistan besides the Afghanpeople." According to Haqqani, there were "senior military and police officials" who arealigned with the group and there are even sympathetic and "sincere people in the Afghangovernment who are loyal to the Taliban" who support the group's aim of liberatingAfghanistan "from the clutches of occupying forces." In response to questions from theBBC's Pashto service, Siraj denied any links to the ISI and stated that Mullah Omar is "ourleader and we totally obey him."The group's links to Pakistan have been a sour point in Pakistan United States relations.In September 2011 the Obama administration warned Pakistan that it must do more tocut ties with the Haqqani network and help eliminate its leaders, adding that "the UnitedStates will act unilaterally if Pakistan does not comply." In testimony before a US Senatepanel, Admiral Mike Mullen stated that the network "acts as a veritable arm of Pakistan'sInter-Services Intelligence Agency." Pakistan in return rejected the notion that itmaintained ties with the Haqqani network or used it in a policy of waging a proxy war inneighboring Afghanistan; the Pakistani interior minister also warned that any incursion onPakistani territory by U.S. forces will not be tolerated. A Pakistani intelligence officialinsisted that the American allegations are part of "pressure tactics" used by the UnitedStates as a strategy "to shift the war theatre." An unnamed Pakistani official was reportedto have said after a meeting of the nation's top military officials that We have alreadyconveyed to the US that Pakistan cannot go beyond what it has already done".__________________Success is never achieved by the size of our brain but it is always achieved by the quality of our thoughts.
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Tuesday, April 03, 2012
Taimoor Gondal Diplomat
Energy Crisis In Pakistan:
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IntroductionIn 1987, the Government of Pakistan (GOP) with the assistance of the World Bank formulated its long termstrategy for development of the power sector in reliable power would spur economic growth. With energydemand growing at 12 percent and supply at 7 percent per annum. Load shedding was rampant withconsequential output losses for industry and agriculture. It was estimated that the annual gap of 2000 MW ofelectricity cost the country approximately $1 billion per year in lost GDP. Electricity was available to only 40percent of the population and per capita consumption of 404 kWh was only 4 percent of that in the UnitedStates and 24 percent of consumption in Malaysia.
IPPsPakistan had to catch up fast and the development of new capacity became the top priority, but the Governmentof Pakistan (GOP) lacked the funds for infrastructure development. Consequently, the private sector was invitedto develop new generating capacity. It was rationalised that the private sector would not only supplement publicsector generation, it would also mobilise additional equity and debt resources and improve the efficiency in theenergy sector.The new energy policy was implemented in a period of high political volatility in the early 1990s. The firstBenazir Bhutto government (elected in 1988) was dismissed by President Ghulam Ishaq Khan in 1992. She wassucceeded by Nawaz Sharif who initiated a number of free market reforms and also signed Pakistans first IPPcontract for the largest power sector project with the Hub Power Company in1992. Disagreements with the President led to the dismissal of this government also, and an interim governmentwas installed which held fresh elections in which the second Bhutto government was elected in November 1993.During its tenure, the Bhutto government signed a number of IPP contracts under the 1994 Power Policy and inJune 1996, Pakistans first private sector power plant, the Hub Power Company (Hubco) came into operation.
Current SituationCurrently the situation Installed capacity is as following .a. Total installed capacity 20681 MWb. WAPDA hydel 6,555 MW (31%)c. WAPDA thermal power, 4829 MWd. RPPs 365 MWe. PAEC 665 MWf. IPPs 7644 MWCurrently Production is 11500 MW and Demand is 15500 MWAdditional quantity is not being produced due tolack fundsand circular debt problem.IPPs and Wapda owned plants also have lost efficiency now only producing50% of full capacity and even less.Production of additional quantity will cause Govt to increase rates due toincrease in thermal factor(variable costs of electricity produced by thermal varies between Rs 12 to 19,while byHydel variable cost is less than Rs1).So the result is rampant load shedding, blow to agriculture and industry andhigh Social cost.
Impacts of IPPsImpacts of IPPs are both positive as well as negative, positive impacts include:a. Enhanced the capacity of power sectorb. Supported the economic activity from 2000 to 2007c. Provided a cushion time to built long term power projectsd. Provided vital support in short span of timeNegative impacts include:a. Bulk tariff ceiling instead of competitive bidding resulted in high tariffsb. Increase in Thermal component also contributed toward price hike ,i.e. 60%c. Lack of transparency in contracts as discussed earlierd. Since 2001 though it has supported eco activity but due to oil price hike and increase in thermal factor it hascaused following problems :
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a) Higher power tariff causing inflation especially after 2005-2006b) Costly export goodse. Low performance by old plants has aggravated power shortagef. IPPs are not environment friendly and cause lot of pollution
Reasons for Power Deficit / Load Shedding
1. Lack of Adequate Investment after induction of IPPs resultantly No Capacity Additions during2002-2008.2. No Worthwhile Foreign Investment, while there was reduced interest by Private Sector as well, despitesolicitations3. As a Policy, Public Sector not allowed to add new capacity, fully banking on Private Sector, which showedlimited interest4. Quantum Jump in Power Demand due to: Consumption led growth strategy of 2002-2008 Unplanned Rural Electrification during 2002-20075. 8.53% Load Growth, even during the current international financial melt down.6. Extra high Load Growth in Urban Areas, which is more than 20% in Karachi, Hyderabad, Sukkur, RahimYar Khan, Bahawalpur, Multan, D.G. Khan, Faisalabad, Lahore, Gujranwala, Rawalpindi/Islamabad andPeshawar.7. Air-conditioning load in Pakistan is more than 5000 MW, while the average shortage is around 3000 MW.8. No major Hydel Plant due to lack of political consensus.9. Diversion of Gas by SNGPL & SSGC, resultant shift to Oil, jacking-up cost of production, loss andavailability of generation upto 1,500 MW10. No tariff increase from FY 2003 to FY 2007, in spite of steep rise in Oil prices resultant financialstrangulation of Power Sector11. Non availability of Funds for development of Transmission & Distribution Infrastructure and rehab ofGENCOs - resulting in system constraints12. Non-Bill Payment and Kunda Culture in major parts of the country hardened over the last one decade13. Extreme lack of political and administrative support from Provincial Governments
Power Sector Issues
1. Poor Recoveries & Piling Receivables (up to Dec 2009) HESCO 56% and receivables Rs.45 billion (Receivables from Govt. of Sindh Rs.20.8 billion) PESCO 80% and receivables Rs.27 billion KESC Rs.49 billion after adjustments2. Accumulated Circular Debt Tariff artificially frozen during 2003-07 in spite of heavy dependence of oil and surge in its prices and increaseof cost of service Insufficient provision of tariff differential subsidy Non-payment by KESC, FATA and Provincial Govts.3. Measures to address the Circular Debt Issue by the present Govt. DEBTCO established to assume loans of Power Companies (Rs.216 bln) Issuance of TFCs (Rs.85 bln) to clear FATA arrears Subsidy duly budgeted. FATA dues duly budgeted NEPRA Act amended. Difference between cost of supply and tariff programmed to be bridged through: Tariff increase in shape of Monthly Fuel Price Adjustment Quarterly Tariff Determinations4. ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY FUEL (excluding KESC)a. From 2006-2007 = 18% by oil, 38% by Hydro, 41% by Gas, 3% by others.b. From 2009-2010 = 37% by oil, 38% by Hydro, 22% by Gas, 3% by others.
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c. World Average = 5.8% by oil, 16% by Hydro, 20.1% by Gas, 41% by coal, 14.8% by nuclear, 3% byothers.
5. CONSUMER MIX & CONSUMPTION PATTERN (excludes KESC) JUL 09-DEC 09a. 7% commercial, 24% Industrial, 15% Agriculture, 48% Domestic, 6% others.b. World Average Industrial Consumption is 42%c. Customers PEPCO: 19.1 million and KESC: 2.0 million6. Oil Handling Infrastructure Present oil requirements is 30,000 ton per day, whereas on the average 24,000 ton oil had been supplied With new rentals and other thermal plants, this is going to increase further. Additional infrastructure and arrangements are required to be made by Ministry of Petroleum and NaturalResources. PSO to expedite acceptance of TPS Muzaffargarh Oil Farm (263,000 MTN) as mid-country strategic reserves7. Uncertainty of Oil Prices Volatility in the oil prices directly affecting the viability and affordability of the sector.8. Investment Required for Development of Indigenous Resources Heavy Capital requirement for development of Indigenous resources of Hydro, Coal and Renewable9. Legal Issues The Electricity Act nor supports the Sector legally to force recovery nor helps curb illegal abstraction ofenergy. Draft Energy Conservation Act of 2009 is devoid of any penalties for non complianceBoth Need change Drafts ready with PEPCO10. Corporate Governance Non Professional Management for over 10 years Human Resource depletion forced by non professional management Capacity Issues in every sub sector and activity Lack of political support in non-performing DISCOs Capacity building of all stakeholders, specially NEPRA required11. Security Issues Security situation negatively affecting Foreign Investment in the Sector
Key Recommendations and Way Forward
1) Demand Supply Position Demand will continue to grow by about 8% Immediate capacity additions required2) Supply Side and Demand Side Measures Government guarantee and financial support is required to install matching capacity in Public Sector otherwiseload shedding will persist in view of lack of private sector appetite for investment3) Cost of Service & Affordability effect For financial sustainability, full cost of service needs to be effected, which may increase the tariff The affordability issue needs to be addressed by targeted subsidies4) Recoveries Political and active Provincial Governmental support is required to help effect recovery of outstanding dues,especially in HESCO, PESCO & QESCO At source deduction be allowed to effect recovery of outstanding dues from Provincial Govts and KESC5) Efficiency Improvement and Theft Control Political and active Provincial Governmental support is needed to control theft in HESCO, PESCO & QESCO Electricity Act & Conservation Act need to be amended to include penalty clauses on theft and energywastage6) Allocation of additional gas Immediate allocation of additional gas of 350 mmcfd be made to Power Sector. If not done, the sustainability of Power Sector and affordability will be jeopardized Availability of gas can save the day
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7) Policies Strategy to overcome the power crisis should be supported by the set of policy measures Joint Session of Parliament be summoned to discuss energy crisis and how get out of it.__________________Success is never achieved by the size of our brain but it is always achieved by the quality of our thoughts.
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Sunday, April 08, 2012
Taimoor Gondal Diplomat
Geo Strategic Importance of Pakistan
Geo strategic means the importance of a country or region as by virtue of its geographicallocation. Geo political is defined as, stressing the influence of geographic factors on thestate power, international conduct and advantages it derives from its location.
Stephen Cohn describes this importance While history has been unkind to Pakistan, itsgeography has been its greatest benefit. It has resource rich area in the north-west,people rich in the north-east. Pakistan is a junction of South Asia, West Asia and CentralAsia, a way from resource efficient countries to resource deficient countries.The world is facing energy crisis and terrorism. Pakistan is a role for transportation, and afront line state against terrorism.
Bridge between South Asia and South West Asia, Iran and Afghanistan are energy abundant while Indiaand China are lacking of. China finds way to Indian ocean and Arabian Sea through Korakaram. Chinawith its fastest economic growth rate of 9%, is developing its southern provinces because its own port is4500 km away from Sinkian but Gawadar is 2500 km away.
Pakistan offers to CARs the shortest route of 2600 km as compared to Iran (4500 km) or Turkey (5000km) land locked Afghanistan now at the phase of Reconstruction, finds its ways through Pakistan.Gawadar port with its deep waters attracts the trade ships of China, CARs and South East Asian Countries.ASEAN.
SAARC, ECO. Iran is struggling to export its surplus gas and oil to eastern countries: Qatar Pakistan andTurkmenistan Pipeline projects highlights the position. Pakistan would get 400 million dollar annually ifIPT gets success. Mountain Ranges: Himalayas, Hindu Kush in the North are plentiful in providing waterand natural resources.
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US interests in the regions to contain the Growing China, nuclear Iran, terrorist Afghanistan, and tobenefit from the market of India. Security and Business are two main US interests in the region whilePakistan is playing a front line role against terrorism. Today the political scenario of the region is tingedwith pre emption policy and US invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan. Irans nuclear program, Indiasgeopolitical muscles (new strategic deal with US) to gain the hegemony and to counter the The Rise ofChina which has earned all the qualities to change unipolar world into Bipolar world.
In all these issues, Pakistan is directly or indirectly involved, especially after Al-Qaeda operations. TheAmerican think tanks have repeatedly accepted that war against terror could never be worn without thehelp of Pakistan. Pakistan has rigorously fought, and ongoing military operation in Wazirstan is alsotargeting the suspected Taliban in the bordering area.
Main threats to Pakistan:
Terrorist in the border areas have tarnished image of Paskistan, fight with Pak-Army and fear amongthe people. Blame of Mumbai attacks on Pakistan. Balochistan and Wazirstan conflicts are posing threats to any economic project like IPI gas pipeline. Negative role of India, US, Iran in this conflict ridden area. Kashmir is flash point. Decelerating nuclear race in the South Asia. Instable governments in Pakistan have contributed in weakening the strong position. Economic crisis is making Pakistan more dependent on US, like accepting of Kerry-Lugar Bill Pakistan army is engaged on western, eastern borders and against terroists.__________________Success is never achieved by the size of our brain but it is always achieved by the quality of our thoughts.
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Friday, April 13, 2012
Taimoor Gondal Diplomat
The warnings about global warming have been extremely clear for a long time.We are facing a global climate crisis. It is deepening. We are entering a periodof consequences.(Al Gore)
Global warming is when the earth heats up (the temperature rises). It happens when greenhouse gases(carbon dioxide, water vapor, nitrous oxide, and methane) trap heat and light from the sun in the earthsatmosphere, which increases the temperature. This hurts many people, animals, and plants. Many cannottake the change, so they die.
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Global warming refers to the rising average temperature of Earth's atmosphere andoceans and its related effects. In the last 100 years, Earth's average surface temperatureincreased by about 0.8 C (1.4 F) with about two thirds of the increase occurring overjust the last three decades. Warming of theclimate system is unequivocal, and scientistsare more than 90% certain most of it is caused by increasing concentrations ofgreenhouse gases produced by human activities such as deforestation and burning fossilfuel. These findings are recognized by the national science academies of all the majorindustrialized countries.Climate model projections are summarized in the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They indicate that during the21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.5 to 1.9 C (2.7 to3.4 F) for their lowest emissions scenarioand 3.4 to 6.1 C (6.1 to 11 F) for theirhighest. The ranges of these estimates arise from the use of models with differingsensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations.An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amountand pattern of precipitation, and a probable expansion ofsubtropical deserts. Warming isexpected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with continuing retreat ofglaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely effects of the warming include more frequentoccurrence of extreme weather events including heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfallevents,species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes, and changes inagricultural yields. Warming and related changes will vary from region to region aroundthe globe, though the nature of these regional changes is uncertain. In a 4 C world, thelimits for human adaptation are likely to be exceeded in many parts of the world, while thelimits for adaptation for natural systems would largely be exceeded throughout the world.Hence, the ecosystem services upon which human livelihoods depend would not bepreserved.Proposed responses to global warming include mitigation to reduce emissions, adaptationto the effects of global warming, and geoengineering to remove greenhouse gases fromthe atmosphere or reflect incoming solar radiation back to space. The main internationalmitigation effort is the Kyoto Protocol, which seeks to stabilize greenhouse gasconcentration to prevent a "dangerous anthropogenic interference". As of May 2010, 192states had ratified the protocol. The only members of the UNFCCC that were asked to signthe treaty but have not yet ratified it are the USA and Afghanistan.
Major contributors of the greenhouse gasses(Causes):
[B][B]1. Since the beginning of industrial revolution atmospheric concentrations of CO2 have increasednearly 30%, methane concentration more than double, NOx concentrations have risen to about 15%.These gasses have enhanced the heat-trapping capability of earths atmosphere.2. The main reason of the increase in concentration of CO2 in last 150 years is the combustion of fossilfuels and other human activities.3. Increased agriculture, deforestation, landfills, industrial production and minning also contribute asignificant share of emissions.4. The level of CO2 enhanced from 210ppm to 360 ppm in last 150 years.5. N2O is 6-8% contributor of the total; green house effect.6. Increased use of aerosols and air coolants have raise the amount of chlorofluorocarbons, whichcontributes 24% of the total green house effect.7. Oxides of sulfur, which are obtained by burning fuel in the engines, are also a potential hazard.8. Due to high levels of CFCs the ozone layer which is a protective covering of the earth is depleting anda hole has been observed in it on the arctic region. This depleted ozone also increases the influx of solarlight specially UV rays.
Some global indications and implications of rise intemperature(Effects):
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1. The snow covers in the northern hemisphere and floating ice in the Arctic Ocean havebeen decreased significantly.2. Globally sea level has risen 4-8 inches over the past century.3. Worldwide precipitation over land has increased by about one percent.4. Scientists expect that the average global surface temperature could raise 1-4.50C inthe next 50 years and 2.2-100F in the next century with significant regional climaticchanges.5. Evaporation will increase as climate will warm up, which will increase average globalprecipitation.6. Soil moisture is likely to decline in many regions and intense rainstorms are likely tobecome more frequent.7. Sea levels are likely to rise in most parts of the world.8. Year 2008 was the hottest year on record.9. Due to adverse climatic conditions wild life is becoming extinct.
Impact on Pakistan:
1. Pakistan produces less than 0.4% of the green house gasses which are the majorcontributors of global warming.2. Yet, it is the 12th country most at risk from the effects of global warming.3. Karachi and twelve other mega-cities of Asia has been declared as Atmospheric BrownCloud (ABC) hotspots by the UN environment agency as soot levels in these citiescomprise ten per cent of the total mass of all man-made particles.A three-kilometer-thick brown cloud of man-made pollution, which stretches from theArabian Peninsula to China to the western Pacific Ocean, is making Asian cities darker,speeding up the melting of Himalayan glaciers and impacting human health, says the UNEnvironment Programme (UNEP) in a regional assessment report with focus on Asia. Inaddition to Karachi, the UNEPs new publication points out Bangkok, Beijing, Cairo,Dhaka, Kolkata, Lagos, Mumbai, New Delhi, Seoul, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Tehran asbeing ABC hotspots.
Impact on global economy:
If you asked me to name the three scariest threats facing the human race, Iwould give the same answer that most people would: nuclear war, globalwarming and Windows.- Dave Barry
One widely publicized report on potential economic impact is the Stern Review, written bySir Nicholas Stern. It suggests that extreme weather might reduce global gross domesticproduct by up to one percent, and that in a worst-case scenario global per capitaconsumption could fall by the equivalent of 20 percent.
Most countries are Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on ClimateChange (UNFCCC). The ultimate objective of the Convention is to prevent "dangerous"human interference of the climate system. As is stated in the Convention, this requires
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that GHG concentrations are stabilized in the atmosphere at a level where ecosystems canadapt naturally to climate change, food production is not threatened, and economicdevelopment can proceed in a sustainable fashion.The Framework Convention was agreed in 1992, but since then, global emissions haverisen. During negotiations, the G77 (a lobbying group in the United Nations representing133developing nations) pushed for a mandate requiring developed countries to "[take] thelead" in reducing their emissions. This was justified on the basis that: the developedworld's emissions had contributed most to the stock of GHGs in the atmosphere;per-capita emissions (i.e., emissions per head of population) were still relatively low indeveloping countries; and the emissions of developing countries would grow to meet theirdevelopment needs. This mandate was sustained in the Kyoto Protocol to the FrameworkConvention, which entered into legal effect in 2005.In ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, most developed countries accepted legally bindingcommitments to limit their emissions. These first-round commitments expire in 2012. USPresident George W. Bush rejected the treaty on the basis that "it exempts 80% of theworld, including major population centers such as China and India, from compliance, andwould cause serious harm to the US economy."At the 15th UNFCCC Conference of the Parties, held in 2009 at Copenhagen, severalUNFCCC Parties produced the Copenhagen Accord. Parties associated with the Accord(140 countries, as of November 2010) aim to limit the future increase in global meantemperature to below 2 C. A preliminary assessment published in November 2010 by theUnited Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) suggests a possible "emissions gap"between the voluntary pledges made in the Accord and the emissions cuts necessary tohave a "likely" (greater than 66% probability) chance of meeting the 2 C objective. TheUNEP assessment takes the 2 C objective as being measured against the pre-industrialglobal mean temperature level. To having a likely chance of meeting the 2 C objective,assessed studies generally indicated the need for global emissions to peak before 2020,with substantial declines in emissions thereafter.The 16th Conference of the Parties (COP16) was held at Cancn in 2010. It produced anagreement, not a binding treaty, that the Parties should take urgent action to reducegreenhouse gas emissions to meet a goal of limiting global warming to 2 C abovepre-industrial temperatures. It also recognized the need to consider strengthening thegoal to a global average rise of 1.5 C.
Pragmatic solutions to overcome this catastrophic change:
We are about half a century away from being ecologically and economicallybankrupt because of global warming stated Andrew Simms while demandingKyoto tax on U.S.
1. Mitigation of global warming is accomplished through reductions in the rate ofanthropogenic greenhouse gas release.2. Many environmental groups encourage individual action against global warming, as wellas community and regional actions. Others have suggested a quota on worldwide fossilfuel production, citing a direct link between fossil fuel production and CO2 emissions.3. There has also been business action on climate change, including efforts to improveenergy efficiency and limited moves towards use of alternative fuels.4. In January 2005 the European Union introduced its European Union Emission TradingScheme, through which companies in conjunction with government agree to cap theiremissions or to purchase credits from those below their allowances.
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5. Australia announced its Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme in 2008.6. United States President Barack Obama has announced plans to introduce aneconomy-wide cap and trade scheme.
Political and public debate continues regarding climate change, and what actions (if any)to take in response. The available options are mitigation to reduce further emissions;adaptation to reduce the damage caused by warming; and, more speculatively,geoengineering to reverse global warming. Most national governments have signed andratified the Kyoto Protocol aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
__________________Success is never achieved by the size of our brain but it is always achieved by the quality of our thoughts.
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Sunday, April 15, 2012
Taimoor Gondal Diplomat
National Purpose (shared values and beliefs) envisages: (1) a prosperous and peacefulcountry where all citizens have right to worship, life, property and speech. (2) Equality ofopportunity, with merit as the final standard for all jobs/slots and not the disqualifier it istoday. (3) Liberal/Tolerant Modern State with an Islamic Ideology. (4) Welfare State withboth the State and private sector working in cooperation with each other with a stronginstitutional framework encouraging individuals and businesses to support less affluentclasses. (5) Strengthening democratic traditions by creating a real grassroots democracy.
National integration is a process of achieving national cohesion, stability, prosperity,strength, and feelings of being united as a nation. Pakistan has faced varying degrees ofreligious, ethnic, linguistic, and political problems that are often in conflict with ournational interest. To guard against all external as well as internal challenges to thesolidarity and security of Pakistan, a well knitted and integrated nation is a must. Lack ofconfidence and faith in the future of Pakistan speaks volume of our failings. All the turmoiland unrest in the country cannot be entirely placed on the external forces and ourenemies. The brute and the savage force in an individual, which is basically harnessed bypositive aspects of education, tends to get unleashed in different directions and causesserious disruptions within society.
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Hamza Amir in his book Pakistan-an overdeveloped state has revealed the fact that afterindependence, the governing class was highly educated, on the pattern of the British mindset, while on the contrary the masses were miserable illiterate. This huge gap createdmanagement crisis. Uniform development across the country over the past sixty yearswould have solidly integrated the Pakistani nation but that did not happen due to absoluteincompetence, poor leadership and corruption at all levels. The price Pakistan is paying forits neglect is in the shape of an internally disjointed nation forced to suffer thepresent-day indignities in the shape of terrorism and insurgency.
Factors responsible for current disintegrated nation
For too long, we have focused on our differences - in our politics and backgrounds, in ourrace and beliefs - rather than cherishing the unity and pride that binds us together.Numerous factors are responsible for the current dismal state of affairs with regard tonational unity in Pakistan. We can categorize these factors on political, social, economic,religious dimensions.Feudal consider enlightenment as a challenge to their age old oppressive hold over theirsurfs and have a greater stake in the status quo. Due to large holding and weal is alwayspolitically active in decision making regarding the common masses. Thus the powercontinues to flow from feudalistic order of the society rather than a broad based popularpublic support. The Urban leadership, mainly industrialists, is also following the footstepsof feudal lords.Sectarianism: with the introduction of religious status and exploration of religion byvarious governments to legitimate their rule created held on this Land of the Pure.Different sects manipulated by external actors, are engage in alienating the simpletonMuslims from the true spirit of Islam and are weakening the Muslim brotherhood, which isthe real basis of Pakistan.
Pakistan has been divided between Enlightened and Conservative Muslims, Particularlyafter 9/11 these opposing forces are putting all their energies to falsify the other at thecost of national image and stability. Corruption is so deeply rooted in our public andprivate life that it is threatening the very fabric of our society. An individual finds no fairway to get his legitimate rights and he feels frustrated against this set up of looking andcheating.
Caste/Tribal system: Centuries old cast and tribal system prevailing in all provinces is verydecisive in nature. It has fragmented the society and put the people in the watertightcompartments. The tribal chieftain, making full use of their terrible ignorance andeconomic dependence, are pushing them into the swamp of poverty and frustration.Bearded war Lords:Lust for money and power with a robust desire to govern the country, some of thereligious leaders have turned Deeni Madresas into terrorists organizations by attractingthe poor youth to their free education program. The few violent hands can dismantle thewhole state structure, as is frequently envisaged in suicide bombings.
Higher and costlier Educating is only providing the chosen elite control the policy makingprocess, thus excluding majority of deserving and passionate youth converting them intofrustrated souls.Absence of quick and cheap justice has minimized the role of Law and order agenciesforced the victims to take vengeance by the dint of their own power and introduced aculture of intolerance and violence.
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The Colonial Masters integration of the society was detrimental to the vested interested.Since the independence, the ruling elite with the same colonial mind set segregated thePakistani society on ethnic, linguistic, sectarian issues and kept them in the abeyance ofpoverty and illiteracy.Inequitable Distribution of wealth fueled by the feudal, profit oriented industrialists, biasedpolicy makers aggravated the situation. The concentration of wealth, contrary to theIslamic code, by 22 families in 1960s and 500 groups at present, has alienated themajority from assuming positive role in nation building process.
Unsatisfied Federating Units:
Strong Center, first operated under the provisions of the British made 1935 Act alienatedthe small provinces, generated sentiments of separatism, violence, distrust. Frequentfailure of Counsel of Common Interest, National Finance Commission, disputed waterdistribution and energy resources, the right of royalty, inequitable job distribution, haveendangered the security and prosperity of the country. Attempts to keep unity underbayonet bring short relief but unending unrest and brutalities. Insurgency in Wazirstanand Balochistan, Foreign Elements, are alarming indicators to the national Army.
Controlled Media in Pakistan has been projecting flowery image of the state while thedemon of corruption, hatred, injustice, in violence, and deprivation kept on infecting itsfoundations.
Effects of disunity:
The crisis of management has created an air of uncertainty, disloyalty, frustration, andinsurgency. The Pakistan Army is at war with its own people in Balochistan and FATA. Thefragmented Pakistan with internal weakness and external threats is unable to refuse theAmericans Orders, to get its legitimate right of Kashmir, to secure its borders withAfghanistan.Foreign investors, especially the overseas Pakistanis are examining the fear factors inopening new ventures due to corrupt financial institutions and violent groups.Consequently the vicious circle of poverty expands aggravating the already inflamedsituation. The secret agencies of enemy countries find local terrorists to disrupt thesystem. Under the thick air of jealousy, non construction of Big dams is pushing hecountry into dark ages.A common citizen suffers worst type of corruption and thus is uninterested in payingtaxes. Social values, crime rate, and national patriotism, religious satisfaction are fastdisappearing with growing poverty. Disengage of citizen in election process is a clearindication of general masses hatred against the political, religious and military leadership.Individuals are becoming if oriented, preferring their self interest to the national interest.
Many steps can be taken at Government, Society, and Individual level to fight the menaceof disintegration and harness the much needed national unity. To create physical asset byeducating the masses, proper allocating the land, credit, Zakat and Usher, ensuring costeffective provisions of basic --------- Improved efficiency in the public and Corporatesectors to provide rule of Law.Independence of Judiciary will strengthen democracy, restore trust between Center andProvinces, and facilitate quick dispensation of justice. Depoliticizing of Public departmentsto avoid political pressures. Peace inside and outside the borders will provide sufficientresource, skills and opportunities to focus on the national prosperity. Media with its
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magical power can unite the warring factions by minimizing the differences through opendebates. Stable democratic system to work for welfare state. Patriot intellectuals writingto bring harmony. Accountability at all levels. Autonomy to the Provinces. Awakening ofIslamic ideology.The political and military establishment must now understand that the military potential ofany country is multiplied manifolds when it is backed by a nation that is well-integrated.An integrated nation can cover up for military shortfalls but military strength cannot coverup for the shortfalls of a nation that lacks integration and cohesion. The Soviet Unionsbreak-up in 1991 is an example that amply illustrates this aspect. Pakistan must,therefore, accord top priority to uniform development throughout the country in order tohave a nation that can back its enviable military potential in a solid manner; if not, then allwill be lost.
Following the example of the armed forces it is necessary that Pakistanis learn to workwith each other in all sectors of national life. Army units are formed on the basis ofamalgamating soldiers from different areas. For example a battalion of the Frontier ForceRegiment (FFR) does not consist of Pakhtuns alone but has a component of soldiers fromother parts of Pakistan amalgamated with the Pakhtuns. Thus they become one solidlyintegrated entity the Pakistan army. Pakhtun, Punjabi, Baloch, Sindhi and Kashmirifellow soldiers posted anywhere in the country then willingly die for each other and forPakistan; such is the level of integration. Sadly, one cannot say the same about the restof Pakistan.
In the light of the military experience it just might be a good idea if all businesses,factories, corporate entities, service providers etc located in any province are made tofollow a regulated system that absorbs people of other provinces so that a bondinginteraction is brought about in the workplace.
Lastly, it is time to understand that Pakistan can no longer be ruled from Islamabad by anever-weakening, but imposingly dominant, centre. To continue doing this will be a step inthe wrong direction. There is now no alternative to allowing complete, undiluted andeffective autonomy to the provinces
Some recent positive steps taken by the government
Through the historic 7th NFC Award, Provincial share of the divisible pool would increasefrom the present 47.5 per cent to 56 per cent in the first year of NFC (20102011) and57.5 per cent in the remaining years of the award under the vertical distribution ofresources. He claimed that this share would virtually be over 60 per cent. DuringMusharraf regime, provinces were demanding for a 50% provincial share in the divisiblepool. This is indeed a positive step, provide that it is implemented in its letter and spirit.
Though Balochistan Package for the ever-neglected province, was a good step in clearlyright direction, but the lack of implementation on it, has compelled the observers to termit as a futile exercise. Of the 61 major steps envisaged in the package, only 15 havereached the stage of the full implementation despite more than a dozen high-profilemeetings, two of them presided over by Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani.
The 18th Amendment provided many steps for the provincial autonomy and strengtheningof democracy, which in turn will hopefully translate into increased national unity. Theconstitutional reform package not only meets the federating units demand for abolition ofthe Concurrent Legislative List it also allows the units some say in respect of a few
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matters that have so far been in the Federal List. The Amendment also envisages a mostwelcome increase in the powers of the provincial assemblies.
In his recent trip to Balochistan in October, 2011, Prime Minister ensured the Balochpeople that implementation on the Aghaz-e-Haqooq package is underway, and everyobstacle in the path will be removed.
In a nutshell, sincerity of approach will emerge as the main factor. We need tostrengthen our political system and institutions, develop a dynamic and sustainablegrowth, eradicate corruption, provide timely justice, enhance employment, undertakesteps for population control, seek consensus based political solutions, and resolve ethnic,sectarian and religious fault lines. With time running out, the failure to resolve the crisesmean that there will be no escape from the eventual dark reality of disintegration. Verilywill never Allah change the condition of a people until they change what is in themselves.__________________Success is never achieved by the size of our brain but it is always achieved by the quality of our thoughts.
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Monday, April 16, 2012
Taimoor Gondal Diplomat
Natural Disasters in Pakistan
One year ago, Pakistan suffered the worst flooding in its history, a slow-moving disasterthat left some 2,000 dead and another 11 million homeless. Nearly one million are stillwithout permanent shelter, and meanwhile, the flooding has returned. Though it's not onthe same scale as last year's flood, this summer's damage is still significant. High waterfrom monsoon rains has killed more than 200 people since early August 2011, damagingor destroying some 670,000 homes and affecting more than 5 million people, according tothe government and the United Nations. The disaster has once again overwhelmed thecapacity of the government to assist, and the UN has asked for $357 million ininternational aid.
2010 Floods in Pakistan:-
The 2010 Pakistan floods began in late July 2010, resulting from heavy monsoon rains inthe Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh, Punjab andBalochistan regions of Pakistan and affectedthe Indus River basin. Approximately one-fifth of Pakistan's total land area wasunderwater, approximately 796,095 square kilometres (307,374 sq mi). According toPakistani government data the floods directly affected about 20 million people, mostly by
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destruction of property, livelihood and infrastructure, with a death toll of close to 2,000.UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon had initially asked for US$460 million (420 million)for emergency relief, noting that the flood was the worst disaster he had ever seen. Only20% of the relief funds requested had been received as of 15 August 2010. The U.N. hadbeen concerned that aid was not arriving fast enough, and the World Health Organizationreported that ten million people were forced to drink unsafe water. ThePakistani economywas harmed by extensive damage to infrastructure and crops. Damage to structures wasestimated to exceed US$4 billion (2.5 billion), and wheat crop damages were estimatedto be over US$500 million (425 million). Total economic impact may have been as muchas US$43 billion (35 billion).
The floods were driven by unprecedented monsoon rain. The rainfall anomaly mappublished by NASA showed unusually intense monsoon rains attributed to La Nia. On 21June, the Pakistan Meteorological Department cautioned that urban and flash floodingcould occur from July to September in the north parts of the country. The samedepartment recorded above-average rainfall in the months of July and August 2010 andmonitored the flood wave progression. Discharge levels were comparable to those of thefloods of 1988, 1995, and 1997. The monsoon rainfall of 2010, over whole country, wasexcess of 87 per cent and was highest since 1994 and ranked second highest during last50 years of period.In response to previous Indus River floods in 1973 and 1976, Pakistan created the FederalFlood Commission (FFC) in 1977. The FFC operates under Pakistan's Ministry of Waterand Power. It is charged with executing flood control projects and protecting lives andproperty of Pakistanis from the impact of floods. Since its inception the FFC has receivedRs 87.8 billion (about 900 million USD). FFC documents show that numerous projectswere initiated, funded and completed, but reports indicate that little work has actuallybeen done due to ineffective leadership and corruption
Floods submerged 17 million acres (69,000 km2) of Pakistan's most fertile crop land,killed 200,000 livestock and washed away massive amounts of grain. A major concernwas that farmers would be unable to meet the fall deadline for planting new seeds in2010, which implied a loss of food production in 2011, and potential long term foodshortages. The agricultural damage reached more than 2.9 billion dollars, and includedover 700,000 acres (2,800 km2) of lost cotton crops, 200,000 acres (810 km2) of sugarcane and 200,000 acres (810 km2) of rice, in addition to the loss of over 500,000 tonnesof stocked wheat, 300,000 acres (1,200 km2) of animal fodder and the stored grainlosses.Agricultural crops such as cotton, rice, and sugarcane and to some extent mangoes werebadly affected in Punjab, according to a Harvest Tradings-Pakistan spokesman. He calledfor the international community to fully participate in the rehabilitation process, as well asfor the revival of agricultural crops in order to get better GDP growth in the future.In affected Multan Division in South Punjab, some people were seen to be engaging inprice-gouging in this disaster, raising prices up to Rs 130/kg. Some called for ZaraiTaraqiati Bank Limited to write off all agricultural loans in the affected areas in Punjab,Sindh and Khyber Pukhtunkhwa especially for small farmers.On 24 September the World Food Programme announced that about 70% of Pakistan's
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population, mostly in rural areas, did not have adequate access to proper nutrition.Already resurgent in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwaprovince, agricultural devastation brought on by the floods left Pakistan more susceptibleto an increase in poppycultivation, given the crop's resiliency and relatively few inputs.
Floods damaged an estimated 2,433 miles (3,916 km) of highway and 3,508 miles (5,646km) of railway and repairs are expected to cost at least 158 million USD and 131 millionUSD, respectively.Public building damage is estimated at 1 billion USD. Aid donorsestimate that 5,000 schools were destroyed.The power infrastructure of Pakistan also took a severe blow from the floods, whichdamaged 10,000 transmission lines and transformers, feeders and power houses indifferent flood-hit areas. Flood water inundated Jinnah Hydro power and 150 powerhouses in Gilgit. The damage caused a power shortfall of 3.135 gigawatts.
3. Taliban insurgency
It was reported that the flood would divert Pakistani military forces from fighting thePakistani Taliban insurgents (TTP) in the northwest to help in the relief effort, givingTaliban fighters a reprieve to regroup. Helping flood victims gave the US an opportunity toimprove its image.Pakistani Taliban also engaged in relief efforts, making inroads where the government wasabsent or seen as corrupt. As the flood dislodged many property markers, it was fearedthat governmental delay and corruption would give the Taliban the opportunity to settlethese disputes swiftly. In August a Taliban spokesperson asked the Pakistani governmentto reject Western help from "Christians and Jews" and claimed that the Taliban could raise$20 million to replace that aid.According to a US official, the TTP issued a threat saying that it would launch attacksagainst foreigners participating in flood relief operations. In response, the United Nationssaid it was reviewing security arrangements for its workers. The World HealthOrganization stated that work in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province was already sufferingbecause of security concerns.An self-proclaimed Taliban spokesperson based in Orakzai told The Express Tribune: Wehave not issued any such threat; and we dont have any plans to attack relief workers."Nevertheless three American Christians were reported killed by the Taliban on 25 Augustin the Swat Valley.
4. Political effects
The floods' aftermath was thought likely contribute to public perception of inefficiency andto political unrest. These political effects of the floods were compared with that of the1970 Bhola cyclone. The skepticism within the country extended to outside donors. Lessthan 20% of the pledged aid was scheduled to go through the government, according toPrime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, with the remainder flowing through non-governmentalorganizations. The government's response was complicated by insurgencies (inBalochistan and Waziristan), growing urban sectarian discord, increasing suicidebombings against core institutions and relations with India.
5. Economic effects
On 7 September 2010, the International Labour Organization reported that the floods had
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cost more than 5.3 million jobs, stating that "productive and labor intensive job creationprogrammes are urgently needed to lift millions of people out of poverty that has beenaggravated by flood damage". Forecasts estimated that the GDP growth rate of 4% priorto the floods would turn to -2% to -5% followed by several additional years ofbelow-trend growth. As a result, Pakistan was unlikely to meet the International MonetaryFund's target budget deficit cap of 5.1% of GDP, and the existing $55 billion of externaldebt was set to grow. Crop losses were expected to impact textile manufacturing,Pakistan's largest export sector. The loss of over 10 million head of livestock along withthe loss of other crops would reduce agricultural production by more than 15%. Toyotaand Unilever Pakistan said that the floods would sap growth, necessitating production cutsas people coped with the destruction. Parvez Ghias, the chief executive of Pakistan'slargest automotor manufacturer Toyota, described the economy's state as "fragile".Nationwide car sales were predicted to fall as much as 25%, forcing automakers to reduceproduction in October2010 from the prior level of 200 cars per day. Milk supplies fell by15%, which caused the retail price of milk to increase by Pk Rs 4 (5 US cents) per liter.
2011 Floods in Sindh
The heavy monsoon rains and the resulting floods have affected more than 5.4 millionpeople in Sindh and Balochistan Provinces of Pakistan. In Sindh 23 districts have beenaffected to some degree. It is expected that the population will continue to be uprootedfrom their homes to seek refuge in the short term as more areas are affected. InBalochistan, five districts are affected.
At least 5.4 million have been affected 1.8 million people have been displaced (51% female) 21 out of 23 districts in Sindh have been affected 67% of food stock has been destroyed. In 16 districts, 72.6% crops damaged or destroyed while 36.2% livestock is lost or sold.
In the month of July Pakistan received below normal monsoon rains; however in Augustand September the country received above normal monsoon rains. A strong weatherpattern entered the areas of Sindh from the Indian states of Rajasthan and Gujarat inAugust and gained strength with the passage of time and caused heavy downpours. Thefour weeks of continuous rain have created an unprecedented flood situation in Sindh.The District Badin in Sindh province received record breaking rainfall of 615.3 millimeters(24.22 in) during the monsoon spell breaking earlier recorded 121 millimeters (4.8 in) inBadin in 1936. The area of Mithi also received record rainfall of 1,290 millimeters (51 in)during the spell, where maximum rainfall was recorded 114 millimeters (4.5 in) in Mithi in2004. The heavy cloudburst during last 4872 hours displaced many people besidesdestroying crops in the area. The Met Office had informed all district coordination officers,Provincial Disaster Management Authority, chief secretaries and chief ministers about theheavy monsoon rain-spell two days earlier to take precautionary measures.Qamar uz Zaman Chaudhry, Director General Pakistan Meteorological Department said:"the rains in Sindh are the highest ever recorded monsoon rains during the four weeksperiod of August and September, 2011. Before the start of these rains in the second weekof August, Sindh was under severe drought conditions and it had not received any rainfallfor the last 12 months. The last severe rainfall flooding in Sindh occurred in July 2003," he
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said and added, "but this time the devastating rains of Mithi, Mirpurkhas, Diplo, Parker,Nawabshah, Badin, Chhor, Padidan, and Hyderabad etc during the four weeks period havecreated unprecedented flood situation in Sindh." According to Dr. Qamar, the total volumeof water fallen over Sindh during the four weeks is estimated to be above 37 million acrefeet, which is unimaginable. The August monsoon rainfall, over province of Sindh (271 %above normal) is the heaviest recorded during the period 19612011.
UN efforts for floods in Pakistan
The United Nations called for US$357 million to help the Government of Pakistan providelife-saving assistance to more than 5 million people left destitute by devastating monsoonrains and floods in Pakistan. The United Nations Rapid Response Plan for 2011 aims toprovide food, water, sanitation, health, and emergency shelter to the worst hit families forsix months.To date, the UN and its humanitarian partners have distributed more than 20,000 shelterkits and sets of household goods, as well as 530,000 plastic sheets. More than 650,000people have received medicines and medical care, and 500,000 people will receive foodaid by the end of September. The UN also aims to provide 400,000 people with access tosafe drinking water over the coming days. Nonetheless, the level of need remains huge.
1. Role of Government Institutions
When the flood reached the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the government announcedthe evacuation of houses. This was initially refused by many people, because hardlyanybody believed in an upcoming disaster. The refusal of people to leave their homes isalso linked to local cultures and traditions. Daily life takes place in the privacy of a familyshome. Therefore, the destruction of houses deprives families of housing place and, at thesame time, of a retreat, particularly for female family members.After the flood struck the province with its full strength, the provincial government wasparalysed. It was a critical situation, as the government had hardly any resources toprovide aid to the people. It was the assistance of the military (and its equipment, such ashelicopters and boats) that enabled the government to first rescue people and thenprovide food and non-food items. By now, the provincial government has started differentrelief activities in almost every constituency. Camps were established and food wasdistributed. Besides the provisions of tents, government school buildings were transferredinto temporary shelters. Nevertheless, the help given was not sufficient, since theprovince was, prior to the flood, already in a state of war. Many people, particularlychildren and women, are mentally disturbed and most vulnerable in this crisis. Despite allefforts by the provincial government and other actors, such as NGOs, civil society or hostfamilies, more resources and aid is urgently needed. In regard to the upcoming winterseason, however, the temporary tents are not sufficient any more. There is a need ofwarm shelters, beds and blankets. The main need, which cannot only be provided by theprovincial government, is, however, the beginning of a rehabilitation process.So far, the provincial government has not received any financial support from the federalgovernment or international donors. The chief minister of the province has alreadyinitiated a meeting with international donor agencies to convince them of the necessity tohelp and support the people of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Regarding the ongoing war on terrorin the region, it is even more important to support this crisis-ridden province.In general, Pakistan is in need of international support. Many regional organisations,which help affected families, are charity based or depended on external funding. Also the
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financial support of the Pakistan government does not meet the needs of the people sofar. The government has issued so called Watan Cards with a balance of 20.000 Rupees(approx. 180 EUR) to affected families. This amount is, however, not sufficient for thereconstruction of houses. Thus, main problems are the rehabilitation and reconstructionof houses and livelihoods, as well as the resettlement of homeless people. If suchprocesses are not initiated in the upcoming months, a crisis after the crisis will emergeand aggravate the security situation in the region. In this regard, Pakistan needsassistance by the international donor community, also because the government lacksfunctioning institutions to handle such issues.
2. The Flood as a Catalyst for Existing Crises
Pakistan is facing a multi-fold crisis: a food, fuel, fiscal, democracy, terrorism and climatecrisis. They are all interlinked and somehow extent the effect of each other. The flood nowmultiplies the effect of these already existing crises in the country. Prior to the flood, therewas yet a food crisis in the country. According to a report by the World Food Programmeand Sustainable Development Policy Institute released in June 2010, about 48 percent ofPakistans population is affected by food insecurity. After the flood and its disastrousimpacts, this crisis was aggravated and the number of people rose to 60 percent.Pakistan has been facing a deteriorating fuel crisis for many years, which leads to energyshortage and blackouts. This crisis was in turn aggravated by a lack of energy and lack ofbudgetary discipline. The flood threatened some of the power plants, and the supply ofnatural gas and oil had to be reduced because of standing water.Furthermore, the fiscal crisis led to the reduction of funds for the Public SectorDevelopment Programme (education, health, agriculture, sanitation, infrastructure etc.)in order to meet the needs for flood relief and reconstruction. This drastic move, in turn,leaves half of the population, which was not directly affected by the flood, economicallyvulnerable.The democracy crisis became particularly visible in regards to the district governmentsystem. During the flood crisis, the tenure of local governments expired, but the electioncommission has not announced elections to fill vacant government position of thedistricts. Thus, the lack of local governments has a negative effect on the coordination ofrelief items and reconstructions activities.Furthermore, the security (terrorism) crisis is interlinked with the food crisis. Thosedistricts in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Mohmand Agency, North and South Waziristan, Lowerand Upper Dir, Shangla), Baluchistan (Dera Bugti), Punjab (DG Kahn, Rajanpur andMuzaffargarh) and Sindh (Dadu, Jacobabad, Shikarpur, Sukkur), which are facing achronic food crisis, are also classified as most insecure and dangerous districts regardingmilitancy or tribal violence. At the same time, some of the districts are also the worstflood affected areas which in turn aggravate the already existing crises.Finally, the flood also has a serious ecological impact. The Indus River is a habitat for rareand endangered species such as the Blind Dolphin. In the course of the flood, barrageswere opened and many dolphins could slip into canals, where they died. Also mangrovesin lower Sindh and forests in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were destroyed by the flood.
3. Civil-Military Relations
Currently, military and civil government institutions are struggling on issues of distributionof relief aid. The question of dividing the government resources is central. Differentstakeholders battle for the greatest share of resources which in turn undermines theefficiency of the state and its ability to address problems.Pakistans image on the outside, but also inside the country, is rather negative. Both
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media and the establishment created an extremely negative image of the governmentscrisis management and portrayed the military as saviour of the people. However, in thecase of Punjab, it was initially the local government, not the military, that came to thepeoples assistance. Despite many problems, the government is not as incompetent as itis always portrayed.Nevertheless, the military is the only entity, which is prepared and equipped for such animmense crisis. Regarding government expenditure on the military (approx. 35-40% ofgovernment expenditures), it would be logical for the government to use the military foremergency aid. Moreover, there are just no alternative institutions, which could cater incase of floods, earthquakes or other national emergencies. In case of civil-militaryrelations, it should be considered along the cost for deploying the military or the cost ofnot having alternative institutions in such situations. However, Pakistan and theinternational community need to esteem the value of the civilian structure of the statewhich is, despite all inefficiency, committed to the creation of a peaceful Pakistan. Thus,the key is to enable Pakistan to help itself by building and strengthening its civilinstitutions.
Expectations, Needs and Challenges
Short term expectations:
1. Physical availability of food items therefore convincing policy makers to open tradewith India through Wagah Border (near Lahore)2. Humanitarian relief items such as (warm) shelters, beds and blankets3. Rehabilitation and reconstruction of houses and livelihoods4. Ban of livestock export, since a huge number of people have lost their animals5. Assistance in the coordination of aid
1. Land tenure arrangements, including redistribution and re-demarcation of land. Thisbears problems of corruption and anger, since land tenure or land ownership is notcomputerized.2. Distribution of seed and fertilizers3. Soil analysis for proper use of agricultural land
Long term expectations:
1. An overall agricultural policy including land reform (because 80% of land is in the handsof only 20% of people), crop cultivation, size of land, access to water etc.2. Resettlement programmes for people who live near the rivers3. Anti-corruption programmes4. Programmes for the social sector such as education and health facilities5. Support in regard to the war on terror and its impact on the society6. Adjustment of aid policy of the international donor community, because it is virtually anextension of the policy of the war on terror (For example, Germany has concentrated itshelp only on Khyber Pakhtunkhwa although other provinces are equally affected by theflood and problems of militancy)7. Exchange of international donors, civil society and the government to address andreassess the needs of the people in order to implement aid programmes properly8. Discontinuation of the sale of military equipment by supplier states (fighter jets fromUSA and China, Negotiations on buying Submarines from Germany and France). It is the
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responsibility of supplier states, which are at the same time donors of aid, to preventPakistan to spend millions of dollars for military equipment.9. Exchange of regional experiences (India, Bangladesh or Sri Lanka) towards theestablishment of institutional and social structures and how to meet natural disasters10. Transparency in regard to the implementation of studies such as the post-disastersurvey Damage and Needs Assessment of the World Bank and Asian Development Bank(e.g. objections in terms of validity of data)
Dengue Fever In Pakistan
Already cursed by floods and suicide bombings, Pakistan now faces a new menace froman unprecedented outbreak of the deadly tropical disease dengue fever.According to Punjabs Health Department, the number of dengue-affected people is19,614; of them, 17,000 belong to Lahore. So far, 317 people have died. This fever hasspread rapidly among both rich and poor in Pakistans cultural capital Lahore.Dengue affects between 50 and 100 million people in the tropics and subtropics eachyear, resulting in fever, muscle and joint ache.But it can also be fatal, developing into haemorrhagic fever and shock syndrome, which ischaracterised by bleeding and a loss of blood pressure.Caused by four strains of virus spread by the mosquito Aedes aegypti, there is no vaccine which is why prevention methods focus on mosquito control.Pakistani authorities in Lahore have blamed the crisis on prolonged monsoon rains andunusually high seasonal temperatures.But furious locals say the outbreak is yet another example of government inefficiency,citing a failure to take preventive measures to kill off the mosquitos and lengthy powercuts.In northwestern province Khyber Paktunkhwa, at least 130 people have been diagnosedand six have died. Southern province Sindh has seen 400 suspected cases and six deaths.Banners emblazoned with giant sketches of mosquitos and public warning messages suchas Eliminate dengue, Have peace are hung across avenues and crossings in Lahore, acity of eight million.At Lahore General Hospital, where most cases have been reported, the corridors werepacked with patients and relatives making it difficult to breathe.Outside, medics set uplarge tents to accommodate family members and patients waiting for treatment, offeringsome shelter in the sweltering heat.Doctor Zafar Ikram said the hospital was workingbeyond capacity to deal with the influx of patients.I think more people are coming because there is greater awareness about dengue due tothe media spotlight and people are scared, so anyone with a normal fever comes tohospital for the (dengue) test, Ikram told AFP.At the Mayo hospital, hundreds of people queued up in front of registration counters,giving blood samples and collecting reports.Teams from the World Health Organisation and Sri Lanka are now helping with the efforts.Schools and colleges initially shut have since reopened.
Government of Pakistan and Punjab, Pakistan are working on the preventive measures toreduce the spread of the epidemic. The Government of Punjab has opened a hotline calledPunjab Health Line Project For Dengue which can be reached at 0800-99000. This is tofacilitate the circulation on the signs and symptoms of dengue, reach for help forsuspected cases and ultimately help identify areas where the epidemic may have reached.Spraying teams have been organized for the purpose of fumigating, spraying and fogging
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areas where the Aedes mosquitoes have known to infect people with the virus. Directionsare in place for spraying especially in educational institutes. The government threatenedto take action against any private school that did not observe to take these measures.Mobile teams operate around the clock to treat affectees on the spot in rural areas. ASpecial Tribunal for dengue directly reports to the provincial government. ChairmanDengue Emergency Response Committee Khwaja Saad Rafique has also advised privateschools to spray twice a week. In early September 2011, the Government of Punjabordered the schools, colleges and universities in thePakistan to close down for 10 days forintensive spraying. Article 144 has been implemented in Lahore for the prevention ofdengue. After an appeal by the Punjab, Pakistan, private hospitals have agreed to providefree treatment to dengue patients.__________________Success is never achieved by the size of our brain but it is always achieved by the quality of our thoughts.
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Friday, April 20, 2012
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Pakistan China Relations
People's Republic of ChinaPakistan relations began in 1950 when Pakistan was amongthe first countries to break relations with the Republic of China on Taiwan and recognizethe PRC. Following the 1962 Sino-Indian War, both countries has placed considerableimportance on the maintenance of a extremely close and supportive relationship. Sincethen, the two countries have regularly exchanged high-level visits resulting in a variety ofagreements. The PRC has provided economic, military and technical assistance toPakistan and each considers the other a close strategic ally.Bilateral relations have evolved from an initial Chinese policy of neutrality to a partnershipthat links a smaller but militarily powerful Pakistan, partially dependent on China for itseconomic and military strength, with China attempting to balance competing interests inthe region. Diplomatic relations were established in 1950, military assistance began in1966, a strategic alliance was formed in 1972 and economic co-operation began in 1979.China has become Pakistans largest supplier of arms and its third-largest trading partner.Recently, both nations have decided to cooperate in improving Pakistan's civilian nuclearprogram.Favorable relations with China is a pillar of Pakistan's foreign policy. China supportedPakistan's opposition to the Soviet Union's intervention in Afghanistan and is perceived byPakistan as a regional counterweight to India and the United States. China and Pakistanalso share close military relations, with China supplying a range of modern armaments tothe Pakistani defense forces. China supports Pakistan's stance on Kashmir while Pakistansupports China on the issues of Xinjiang, Tibet, and Taiwan. Lately, military cooperation
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has deepened with joint projects producing armaments ranging from fighter jets to guidedmissile frigates.Chinese cooperation with Pakistan has reached economic high points, with substantialChinese investment in Pakistani infrastructural expansion including the Pakistani deepwater port at Gwadar. Both countries have an ongoing free trade agreement. Pakistan hasserved as China's main bridge between Muslim countries. Pakistan also played animportant role in bridging the communication gap between China and the West byfacilitating the 1972 Nixon visit to China.
1950 - Pakistan becomes the third non-communist country, and first Muslim one, torecognize the People's Republic of China.1951 - Beijing and Karachi establish diplomatic relations.1963 - Pakistan cedes the Trans-Karakoram Tract to China, ending border disputes.1970 - Pakistan helps the U.S. arrange the 1972 Nixon visit to China.1978 - The Karakoram Highway linking the mountainous Northern Pakistan with WesternChina officially opens.1980 - China and the U.S. provide support through Pakistan to the Afghan guerrillasfighting Soviet occupational forces.1986 - China and Pakistan reach a comprehensive nuclear co-operation agreement.1996 - Chinese President Jiang Zemin pays a state visit to Pakistan.1999 - A 300-megawatt nuclear power plant, built with Chinese help in Punjab province,is completed.2001 - A joint-ventured Chinese-Pakistani tank, the MBT-2000 (Al-Khalid) MBT iscompleted.2002 - The building of the Gwadar deep sea port begins, with China as the primaryinvestor.2003 - Pakistan and China signed a $110 million contract for the construction of ahousing project on Multan Road in Lahore.2007 - The Sino-Pakistani joint-ventured multirole fighter aircraft - the JF-17 Thunder(FC-1 Fierce Dragon) is formally rolled out.2008 - Pakistan welcomes the Chinese Olympic Torch in an Islamabad sports stadium,under heavy guard amidst security concerns.2008 - China and Pakistan sign an free trade agreement.2008 - Pakistan and China to build a railway through the Karakoram Highway, in order tolink China's rail network to Gwadar Port.2008 - The F-22P frigate, comes into service with the Pakistani Navy.2009 - The ISI arrest several suspected Uyghur terrorists seeking refuge in Pakistan.2010 - Pakistan and China conduct a joint anti-terrorism drill.2010 - China donates $260 million in dollars to flood hit Pakistan and sends 4 militaryrescue helicopters to assist in rescue operations.2010 - Wen Jiabao visits Pakistan. More than 30 billion dollars worth of deals weresigned.2011 - Pakistan is expected to buy air to air SD 10 missiles from China for its 250 JF 17thunder fighter fleet
While admitting the expansionist tendencies of Communist China in South East Asia-hencePakistan's membership in SEATO - Pakistan had shown little concern over China as athreat to Pakistan itself. Pakistan was not only the first country to recognise China but it
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always supported China's claim to the Chinese seat in United Nations. Trading betweenthe two countries began in 1950 and each year Pakistan turned to increase its export ofcotton and jute to China. Apprehension over Great Britain's possible entry into theEuropean common market had caused Pakistani salesmen to search for new marketeverywhere, particularly in Asia. In 1963, Pakistan and china signed a new tradeagreement.India attacked China but was beaten back. Chineese troops entered deep into indianterritory in the fall of 1962 and Indian troops retreated. The brightening of Pakistan -China relations actually began when China and India started quarelling over definedHimalayas borders. In 1961, Pakistan approached China requesting negotiations over theborders of Azad Kashmir and China. Before long, Pakistan took other steps to strengthenits relations with China. In June, 1963, the head of Pakistan international Airlines visitedChina to work out details of air service from Karachi and Dhaka to cities of China.At the same time, Chineese trade officials began arriving in Pakistan for new talks. Infebruary 1964, Chineese Premier Late Chou Enlai visited Pakistan and declared thatCommunist China supported Pakistan's demand for a plebicite in Kashmir.In the serious business of international relations, the old Machiavellian principle of "myenemy's enemy is my friend" Frequently guides a nation's policy for communist China,friendship with Pakistan was not only valuable but it fits the principle. In Chineese,Pakistan found a best and most reliable friend. China always helped Pakistan economicallyand military when there was no hope for external help. China also assisted Pakistansetting up a number of factories in Pakistan including Larkana Sugar Mills, Taxila HeavyIndustries Complex. The relations between the two countries improved gradually.
Pakistans Nuclear Program and Chinese Role:-
China helped Pakistan in developing its Nuclear program. though Pakistans program isUranium baseddifferent that that of China. Pakistan already has a nuclear deal. Chinaalready has setup two nuclear power plants Chasnupp 1 (300 MW) and Chasnupp 2 (300MW). The Chashma Nuclear Power Plant is located at Chashma, Punjab, Pakistan. Itconsists of Chashma Nuclear Power Plant I (CHASNUPP-1) and Chashma Nuclear PowerPlant II (CHASNUPP-2). CHASNUPP-3 (600MW under construction) and CHASNUPP-4(2000 MW planned to be completed before 2030) are in the planning stages. China doesnot make any 1000 MW plants, so the Chasnupp 4 and Chasnupp 5 etc will be muchlarger plants beginning in 2010. A series of these will be constructed within the next fiveyears. However this will not be done under floodlights and hoopla. Pakistans Nuclear dealwith the China is like the American Nuclear deal with Israel. The Chinese help to thePakistanis is like the assistance the US provided to Britain and then to France to help theirNuclear programs. Pakistan is not the proliferator of Nuclear weapons, it takes the bruntof the blame for nonsensical and vindictive blame game.
The People's Republic of China enjoys strong defense ties with Pakistan. This relationshipbetween two adjoining Asian countries is important in the world's geo-strategic alliances.The strong defense ties are primarily to counter regional Indian and American influence,and was also to repel Soviet influence in the area. In recent years this relationship hasstrengthened through ongoing defence projects and agreements between Pakistan andChina.Since 1962, China has been a steady source of military equipment to the Pakistani Army,helping establish munition factories, providing technological assistance and modernizingexisting facilities. The countries are involved in the joint venture of several projects to
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enhance military and weaponry systems, which include collaborating in the developmentof JF-17 Thunder fighter aircraft, K-8 Karakorum advance training aircraft, spacetechnology, AWACS systems, Al-Khalid tanks and the Babur cruise missile. The armieshave a schedule for organising joint military exercises.China is the largest investor in the Gwadar Deep Sea Port, which is strategically located atthe mouth of the Strait of Hormuz. It is viewed warily by both America and India as apossible launchpad for Chinese naval operations in the Indian Ocean. However theGwadar Port is currently delayed due to a multilateral diplomatic standoff between theproject leaders and the Singapore government.China has offered Pakistan military aid in order to fight against terrorism in Pakistan.Pakistan has purchased military equipment from China in order to bolster their effortsagainst Islamic militants.In the past, China has played a major role in the development of Pakistan's nuclearinfrastructure, especially when increasingly stringent export controls in Western countriesmade it difficult for Pakistan to acquire materials and uranium enriching equipment fromelsewhere. China has supplied Pakistan with equipment to advance their nuclear weaponsprogram, such as the Chinese help in building the Khushab reactor, which plays a key rolein Pakistan's production of plutonium. A subsidiary of the China National NuclearCorporation contributed in Pakistan's efforts to expand its uranium enrichment capabilitiesby providing 5,000 custom made ring magnets, which are a key component of thebearings that facilitate the high-speed rotation of centrifuges. China has also providedtechnical and material support in the completion of the Chashma Nuclear Power Complexand plutonium reprocessing facility, which was built in the mid 1990s. China may alsohave supplied nuclear technology to the Pakistanis, enabling Pakistan to become a nuclearstate with an estimated 100 warheads as of 2011.
East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) (also known as the Turkistan Islamic Movement(TIM) is a Waziri based mujihadeen organization that is said to be allied with the Taliban,which has received funding from rogue elements in the ISI. As these militants are labeledas terrorists from the Chinese province of Xinjiang, Pakistan's inability to prevent this is apotential source of conflict.The U.S. War On Terror has the Chinese wary of U.S. influence in the region, and asPakistan is a US ally and major recipient of US military and economic aid, China isobligated to step up its support in order to maintain its influence in the region. As politicalalliances shift, Pakistan may have allies in the United States and China that may begin tosee each other as rivals.Similarly, the warming of Sino-Indian relations puts Pakistan's traditional alliance withChina against India at risk. While the level of cooperation between Pakistan and China isfar closer than that of India, it poses a future problem for Pakistan-China relations.
2011 Hotan Attack:-
The 2011 Hotan Attack was a series of coordinated bomb and knife attacks that occurredin Hotan, Xinjiang, People's Republic of China on July 18, 2011. While many had alwayssuspected Pakistani involvement in terrorism in Xinjiang, the 2011 Hotan attack markedthe first incident of acknowledgement of this by authorities in China.
Analysis of Pak-US vs Pak-China relations:-
Decision makers in Pakistan are often torn between opting for strategic relations with the
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US or China: ties with either of the two should be mutually exclusive. However, asPakistanis wonder whether Pakistan is a US ally or target, China with its quietunobtrusive help continues to win the hearts and minds of the people of Pakistan. Thequestion here is, why is it that the US continues to pump money, train Pakistani securityforces and provide technical support, yet it continues to draw flak? It is worth examiningthe reason for this dichotomy.
The Pak-US military relations have been like a rollercoaster ride. Historically, no US allyhas faced as many sanctions from it as Pakistan. A brief history of the Pak-US militaryrelations indicates that they commenced in 1954/55, with the signing of theSEATO/CENTO pact, after which Pakistan started receiving weapons and training fromAmerica. In July 1957, Pakistan permitted the US to establish a secret intelligence facilityin the country and for the U-2 spy plane to operate from Badaber, near Peshawar. Butwhen the plane was shot down by the Soviet army and its pilot captured alive on May 1,1960, it embarrassed the US and brought Soviet ire on Pakistan. Since the Pakistanigovernment was kept in the dark regarding the clandestine US operations, it asked the USto wind up its activities in Pakistan.
During the Indo-China war in 1962, the US supply of defence equipment to India, despitePakistans objections, soured the Pak-US relations. On the contrary, the US did not cometo Pakistans aid either in the 1965 or the 1971 Indo-Pak wars, despite a pact for mutualdefence, forcing Pakistan to denounce its SEATO and CENTO membership. In addition, thePak-US relations underwent a severe blow with Pakistans nuclear tests on May 28, 1998,and the ensuing sanctions. The ouster of then premier Nawaz Sharif in 1999 in a militarycoup led by General Musharraf gave the US government another reason to invoke freshsanctions under Section 508 of the Foreign Appropriations Act, which included restrictionson foreign military financing and economic assistance.
Now let us examine Pak-China relations briefly. The relationship between the twocountries began in 1950s when Pakistan was among the first countries, and the onlyMuslim nation, to recognise the Peoples Republic of China and tried to build goodrelations with the newly independent country. Pakistan also helped China become amember of the United Nations and has been instrumental in helping it to maintainrelations with the Muslim world. It has also played a leading role in bridging thecommunication gap between China and the West, through Henry Kissingers secret visit in1971, which became the forerunner of President Nixons historic Beijing tour, establishingto the world that China was a lawful entity.
Today, China has come a long way from those turbulent times. It is a factor of stability inthe region; is the worlds most populous and industrious nation; the worlds third largesteconomy and trading nation; has become a global innovator in science and technology;and is building a world class university system. It has an increasingly modern military andcommands diplomatic respect. In this period of global economic meltdown, China not onlyhas a stable economy, but it also holds roughly $1.5 trillion in US assets, which is at least65 percent of Chinas total foreign assets, and it is the second biggest foreign holder of USdebt after Japan.
Pakistan and Chinas joint ventures to produce JF-17 Thunder fighter aircraft, K-8 Traineraircraft, Al-Khalid Tank and F-22 Naval Frigates have given a new dimension to thecooperation between the two countries in the field of defence. Heavy Rebuild Factory(HRF) at Taxila, Pakistan Aeronautical Complex at Kamra was also established withChinese assistance. The Karakoram Highway, the strategic port of Gawadar and the
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Chashma nuclear reactors are a manifestation of Chinas sustained interest in Pakistan.
The problem with the Pak-US relationship is mainly because of trust deficit. The USannounces a strategic partnership amid much fanfare, and admits its past mistakes indealing with Pakistan; however, at the first hint of trouble, US Secretary of State HillaryClinton threatens Pakistan of severe consequences. The drone attacks continue anddespite Pakistans serious commitment and sacrifices in the war against terrorism,Washington expects it to do more. Strategic partnerships are undoubtedly based onsterner foundations.
Compared with the US, look at Pakistans partnership with China where billions of dollarsworth of projects are launched without fanfare and without insensitively remindingPakistanis everyday about the aid or asking for audit reports. The treatment meted outto Pakistanis, or even Pakistani-origin US citizens, at the US airports leaves a lot to bedesired. The Chinese want to help Pakistan in building its infrastructure; have been thereat every moment of trial and tribulation; and have never put restrictions on aid, nor leviedsanctions on Pakistan. It is, thus, obvious that Pakistan considers China a more reliableand trustworthy ally.__________________Success is never achieved by the size of our brain but it is always achieved by the quality of our thoughts.
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