cultural diversity - dipmf · horses in new york city - 1900 a lot of horses •200 000 horses in...
TRANSCRIPT
Speaker Name
Speaker Title
Speaker Company
CULTURAL DIVERSITY
PARALLEL SESSION STREAM
Adapt, Adopt and Thrive:
The Robot Revolution, Agile and the Impact
on Project Management
Michael Palladino
Head, Agile Centre of
Excellence
Bristol-Myers Squibb
DIPMF 2019
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Adapt Adopt and Thrive:The Robot Revolution, Agile and the Impact on
Project Management
Mike Palladino, PMP, CSM- Head, Agile Center of Excellence, Bristol-Myers Squibb
- Adjunct Professor, Villanova University
- Author, Data Management University
- Past President, PMI-DVC chapter
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DIPMF 2019
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Adapt Adopt and Thrive:The Robot Revolution, Agile and the Impact on
Project Management
Mike Palladino, PMP, CSM- Head, Agile Center of Excellence, Bristol-Myers Squibb
- Adjunct Professor, Villanova University
- Author, Data Management University
- Past President, PMI-DVC chapter
Welcome to 4th Industrial Revolution!!!
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In-depth Research
Watched one movie
So, what becomes of the humans?
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Batteries for Robots
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Conclusion?
The Robot Overlords will take over in the future
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Some time in the future
Humans are Free
Human are Batteries
Stop
Not Good Enough
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Results
539 MoviesNegative outlookHappy outlook
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532
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Got Me Thinking
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Value of Humans?
Adapt to environment
Adopt new change
Thrive in the future
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Some time in the future
Humans are Free
Human are Batteries
Stop
Humans adapt, adopt and thrive
X
Areas that are Difficult to Automate
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No Humans, AI is Still Pretty Stupid
“Our most advanced AI systems are dumber than a rat”
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AI
Humans
Additional Articles - Concerns
“Labor vs machines. An employment puzzle”“A revolutionary decade in machinery emphasizes anew the discarding of mendisplaced in history”
“President ranks automation first as job challenge. Burden of finding work for youths and those displaced by machines”
“Automation report sees vast job loss”
“In concrete constructing, building materials are mixed, like dough, in a machine and literally poured into place without the touch of a human hand”
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Jun 1, 1930
Feb 15, 1962
Feb 26, 1928
New York Times articles
Forgotten Past Revolutions
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What happened to the previous jobs?
Horses in New York City - 1900
A Lot of Horses
• 200 000 horses in New York City
• 7 - 16 kg of manure per day• 1.4 – 3.2 million kg of manure per day
• 1500 – 3500 tons per day
• In 1880, 15 000 dead horses removed
New Jobs Created
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1908 Cars started to arrive – Panic. What will all these people do?
Job Loss vs Job Gain
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New Technology
Expand Lower Prices
Lost Jobs
New Jobs
New Jobs
New Jobs
Tech Suppliers
New Industries
We Buy More
We Buy Other Things
Higher Productivity
New Jobs and Industries Created
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Quick Math - Driverless Car
USA: 280 M cars on the road
Replacement rate: 2 - 4 % per year
5.6 M to 11.2 M vehicles per year
How long to convert?
35 to 70 years
Real challenge: 35 – 70 years with both human and automated drivers
Question: What about Motorcycles?
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Sewing Machines
First commercial models 1844-1851
Women spent time sewing clothes, or hiring a seamstress
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Time to Create
Before SewingMachines
After Sewing Machines
Shirt 14 hours 1 hour 15 minutes
Dress 10 hours 1 hour
Pants 3 hours 38 minutes
The Great Sewing Machine Riots of 1830
1830, Barthelemy Thimonnier had a factory with over 80 machines
Factory was destroyed by a riotous group of French tailors
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Problem with Predictions
Missing the context
May not include the bigger picture”Those who don’t know history are doomed to repeat it” – Edmund Burke
Example: What can happen if we use data from only the past few months
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The Great Sunlight Leakage Crisis
Started in July
Philadelphia is loosing about 2 minutes of daylight per day
AI model predicts total darkness by June
Affects the entire Northern Hemisphere
Daylight is leaking to the Southern Hemisphere
They are gaining about 2 minutes of daylight per day
We must “Do Something”!!!!!!
Give me money, I might be able to reverse the trend by December
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Poor Track Record for Predictions
Professional stock pickersMonkeys throw darts to pick stocks
Results?
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“How are those revised projections coming along?”
Poor Track Record for Predictions
American football
Each division has 4 teams
Eliminate the obvious bad choice
Chances of picking the correct team: 33%
Accuracy of Professional Football Analysts?
36%
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Predicting the End of the World
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100 AD 2000 2019
The latest Predictions- 2020 Dixon, Armageddon will begin. Updated from 1962- 2026 Asteroid collisions- 2030 Mass extinction- 2017 to 2113: Several predictions about Asteroids- 2525 Either human race is extinct, or may take another 7,475 years
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Hu
nd
reds
Accuracy?
0%
Padding Predictions With Extra Time
Predictions are made far into the future
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Nov 8, 2017 - Stephen Hawking: “…less than 600 years until Earth becomes a sizzling fireball”
“ NASA - Galaxies will collide in 4 billion years”
“ The END is Thursday.The END is Near.
‘Amateur’ ”
Excuses
“Unpredictable factors, such as the weather”
“No one else could have predicted …”
“My prediction was right, but my timing was off”
“The evidence was not incorrect, but was not fully predictive of what was going on”
People’s fears don’t add up80% of people → robots will take over 50% of the jobs
80% of people → but not their jobs
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Why Are We So Bad at Predictions?
Strong incentives to make extreme predictions
Must be original, different, and stand out
Only need one correct extreme prediction
What are the penalties for bad predictions?None
Romania to punish bad predictions - 2 years in jail
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We Don’t Know What We Think We Know
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Pyramids – 2750 BC Walking on the Moon – 1969 AD
Cleopatra – 69 BC
Cleopatra lived 700 years closer to present day than the pyramids
Nationality → Greek!
We Are not Good with Amounts and Sizes
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103 1015 1018106 109 1012 1021 1024
Grains of sand on all beaches
Stars in the visible universe
Insects for every human
Trees on Earth
Stars in the Milky Way Galaxy
Synapses in the brain
Atoms in a molar gram of matter
200 x 106
100 x 109
3 x 1012
125 x 1012
1.0 x 1024
6.02 x 1023
7.5 x 1018
Picking Magazines
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Digital/Web only Version: $ 108/year
Digital/Web and Paper Version: $ 108/year
10% 0% 90%
The Economist
Paper only Version: $ 57/year
Picking Magazines
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Paper only Version: $ 57/year
Digital/Web only Version: $ 108/year
Digital/Web and Paper Version: $ 108/year
60% 0% 40%
X
XThe buying habits
changed
The Economist
Picking Magazines
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Paper only Version: $ 57/year
Digital/Web only Version: $ 108/year
Digital/Web and Paper Version: $ 108/year
10% 0% 90%
The buying habits reverted to the
original
Even though no one buys the Digital only
Version
The Economist
Where Does This Leave Us?
The world is changing. It has always changed
People cannot reasonably predict the future
People have always worked togetherAnd will continue to work together
How do we…Interact better
Solve problems better
Communicate better
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Continual Learning
Are we…
Continually learning in our profession?
Continually learning in our industry?
Trying new approaches?
Improving existing techniques?
Or are we ”too busy”
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Agile Manifesto
While there is value in the secondary items, we value the primary items more
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Individuals and interactions over processes and tools
Working solution over comprehensive documentation
Customer collaboration over contract negotiation
Responding to change over following a plan
Agile Manifesto
Agile Principles
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Communicating Clearly
Summarize complex data
80% communicating
Understand and speak to the audience
Short and to the point
Simple, clear words
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Warning: Dangerous Chemical!!!!
Dihydrogen monoxide (DHMO)• Also known as hydroxyl acid, and is a major component of acid rain• Can cause sever burns• Contributes to the erosion of our natural landscape• Accelerates corrosion and rusting of many metals• May cause electrical failures and decreases effectiveness of automobile brakes
Often used in:• Industrial solvent• Nuclear power plants• Distribution of pesticides. Even after washing, the product remains contaminated by
this chemical• Additive in certain junk food and other food products• Has been found in every single household around the world
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http://www.dhmo.org
More Warnings
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Unbelievable!!!
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Danger!!!
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Ban Dihydrogen Monoxide
Who will sign a petition with me to ban Dihydrogen Monoxide?
Di – hydrogen, Mono - oxide
2 Hydrogen, 1 Oxygen
2H, O
H2O
Water
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More Warnings
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Water Water
Unbelievable!!!
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Water
Danger!!!
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Water
Water
Status Reporting
Audience: sponsors, stakeholders and executive leadership
What are the key risks and issues they need to know
What do I need them to understand?
What do I need them to do?
Time spent reading is inversely proportional to content
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Influencing Others
Still need to work with people
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• Build trust early and often
• “Help me understand…”
Trust - Getting to Know Each Other
Initial Introductions
Thank you card
Thank you at work
Team “group photo”
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The Team!
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NameRoleName
RoleNameRole
NameRole
NameRole
NameRole Name
Role
NameRole
NameRole
NameRole
Conclusion - Predictions
So, don’t worry
Unrecognizable change will occur and has occurred
Top 10 jobs didn’t exist 10 years ago
“We are currently preparing students for jobs that don’t yet exist
Using technologies that haven’t been invented
In order to solve problems we don’t even know are problems yet.” – Fisch and MeLeod
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Conclusion - Predictions
Beware of predictions made by “professionals”
Predictions → Guessing
Extreme predictions are amplified
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Conclusion – Our Benefits and Learning
Still comes down to how we interact with peopleBuild trust
Work as a team
Communicate simpler
Continue learning to stay relevant
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Conclusion
Adapt Adopt
And Thrive
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DIPMF 2019
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Thank you!
Questions ???
Comments ???
Speaker Name
Speaker Title
Speaker Company
CULTURAL DIVERSITY
PARALLEL SESSION STREAM
Adapt, Adopt and Thrive:
The Robot Revolution, Agile and the Impact
on Project Management
Michael Palladino
Head, Agile Centre of
Excellence
Bristol-Myers Squibb